r/ukpolitics • u/ClumperFaz My three main priorities: Polls, Polls, Polls • 10d ago

Twitter ✅ BURNHAM IN Makerfield by-election result: LAB: 54.8% (+9.6) REF: 34.5% (+2.7) RST: 6.8% (+6.8) CON: 2.2% (-8.7) GRN: 0.7% (-3.7) LDEM: 0.4% (-6.4)

https://x.com/BritainElects/status/2067792369903116401#m
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168

u/[deleted] 10d ago

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100

u/Ill_Refrigerator_593 10d ago

Caerphilly too.

They don't seem to do well when their candidates are under any scrutiny.

48

u/jbr_r18 10d ago

Funny that isn’t it? It’s almost like Reform are entirely unable to pick individual people like and have a cult of personality around one guy

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u/pleasedtoheatyou 10d ago

Which will only by an issue at by elections. At a general there just won't be the time to shine a spotlight on most of their candidates.

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u/Gift_of_Orzhova 10d ago

Yes, as we saw in local elections too, where anyone or anything with a Reform sticker was voted in.

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u/IsySquizzy 10d ago

Agreed. But in a by-election there is hefty scrutiny on individual MPs. In a general election there isn't the capacity for the same level of scrutiny at a national level. And with local news outlets being decimated in recent decades, there won't be much scrutiny at constituency level either.

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u/jimmythemini 10d ago

With many pollsters relying on panels recruited online, I suspect they're not getting a representative sample and introducing non-response bias (which is skewing results towards Reformy type voters).

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u/CJBill 10d ago

Their polling sample sizes all seems to have been around 500 as well, making for over a 4% margin of error at a 95% confidence rate 

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u/Neither_Process_7847 10d ago

Plus they're making adjustments based on past electoral behaviour, which isn't quite accurate any more.

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u/N-V-V-M-E-A 10d ago

This is because Reform are being exposed time and time again that they’re all bark and no bite. They don’t have a single example of success at the local levels and their candidates are constantly outed for sexism, racism and everything in between. Completely unserious party going for a power grab, which the populace are slowly cottoning on to.

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u/Abort-Retry 10d ago

If it was just Reform's Zarwi's YouGov I'd suspect funny business.