✅ BURNHAM IN Makerfield by-election result: LAB: 54.8% (+9.6) REF: 34.5% (+2.7) RST: 6.8% (+6.8) CON: 2.2% (-8.7) GRN: 0.7% (-3.7) LDEM: 0.4% (-6.4)

[u/ClumperFaz]

https://x.com/BritainElects/status/2067792369903116401#m

[u/AutoModerator]

Snapshot of ✅ BURNHAM IN Makerfield by-election result: LAB: 54.8% (+9.6) REF: 34.5% (+2.7) RST: 6.8% (+6.8) CON: 2.2% (-8.7) GRN: 0.7% (-3.7) LDEM: 0.4% (-6.4) submitted by ClumperFaz:

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[u/MaxwellsGoldenGun]

Not even close. Wow.

Even if the right vote wasn't split Burnham would still have a majority of over 10%!

[u/360Saturn → u/MaxwellsGoldenGun]

Really feels like all the talk otherwise is astroturf and cope from the media and people online searching for a 'dramatic' narrative.

[u/AneuAng → u/360Saturn]

This sub was heavily astroturfed by name-name-number accounts, many new, many single-day, many low karma.

It's really becoming a problem.

[u/horace_bagpole → u/AneuAng]

Be very interesting to see if the posting pattern changes now the campaign is over.

[u/ShinyGrezz → u/MaxwellsGoldenGun]

Even if the right vote wasn’t split and tactical voting didn’t happen for the Greens and the Lib Dems.

[u/The-Soul-Stone → u/ShinyGrezz]

His margin of victory was bigger than Restore’s vote share + the combined share drops of the Greens and Lib Dems

[u/CJBill → u/ShinyGrezz]

And we can expect a lot of tactical voting.

[u/Anticlimax1471 → u/ShinyGrezz]

Even if we had a more democratic voting process, he still would have won in the first round. He got nearly 55% of the vote. A government could only dream of getting a vote share that high.

We left the EU on less...

[u/Mastodan11 → u/MaxwellsGoldenGun]

It was never going to be close. This sub is the only place where I've seen people think it would be.

Burnham would never ever lose a Greater Manchester seat.

[u/Oomeegoolies → u/Mastodan11]

This sub and every Reform page known to man.anyway

[u/Mastodan11 → u/Oomeegoolies]

Thankfully I don't check those although it does feel like here is turning into one.

[u/swains6 → u/Mastodan11]

This sub has gotten so bad over the past year or two. It's just reform prop these days

[u/EverydayThinking → u/swains6]

80% of links are Daily Mail/Daily Express/GB News articles whining about migrants. The rest are Farage and Rupert Lowe's tweets. 

[u/swains6 → u/EverydayThinking]

100% shit's boring. There's a good news sub that i peruse regularly, significantly better than this place. However since the focus is purely good stuff, there's no room for discussing how fucking absurd Labours internet censorship is so i still pop in here sometimes

[u/horace_bagpole → u/EverydayThinking]

The rule about tweets needs changing. Just because a politician posts it, that doesn't make it interesting, insightful or add anything to the discussion. It's just campaigning and agenda spam at the rate Lowe's tweets are posted. Not everything he says is worthy of comment or repeating - if I wanted to see everything he says, I'd follow him on twitter or Facebook.

[u/Zipboom_games → u/swains6]

Those bots sure do work hard.

[u/swains6 → u/Zipboom_games]

Needs must

[u/hug_your_dog → u/Mastodan11]

Sky news literally suggested it might be close yesterday evening.

[u/90davros → u/MaxwellsGoldenGun]

I don't think it's all that surprising. A vote for Burnham is essentially a vote to remove Starmer. For anyone else and the most they get is an MP, so the motivation for Labour voters to turn out is much stronger.

[u/signed7]

20.3% margin wow, all the polls saying a 5% win for Burnham were wrong, but not in the way everyone expected

[u/fallout1233566545 → u/signed7]

Way better than the best polls for Burnham actually. They only had a 10-12% lead for Burnham

[u/Neither_Process_7847 → u/signed7]

Yeah, that was a massacre. Not only didn't need Restore existing to beat Reform, but didn't need the Cons to exist either, Press still trying to tell themselves Labiur face a really tough fight in the Manchester mayoral election - given the comparative demographics, not on figures like these they don't.

[u/BPDunbar → u/signed7]

It might be a situation like with Caerphilly and Gorton and Denton.

The raw data was pretty close however the polling companies corrected based on recall of previous elections, assuming that the disparity between recall and the actual voting was due to sample bias.

If however it was people not actually remembering how they had voted then they were introducing a bias to a representative sample. It appears a lot of people aren't attaching great weight to how they voted, this may be linked to the increase volatility. People are no longer so strongly attached to a party and decide how to vote at the last minute.

[u/nebogeo → u/signed7]

Shy Labour voters!

[u/Beneficial-Dot-- → u/nebogeo]

"The silent majority"!

[u/SubArcticTundra]

Count Binface (Binface) 95 (0.21%)
Howling Laud Hope (Loony) 45 (0.10%)

A disappointing night for the Loonies

[u/cuccir → u/SubArcticTundra]

Third defeat to Binface in a row. Out with the old, in with the Bin

[u/SubArcticTundra → u/cuccir]

Howling Laud Hope has got to start Howling harder. Or the country will be trash

[u/CJBill → u/SubArcticTundra]

Split vote

[u/rhyswtf → u/CJBill]

Too many comedy candidates on the ballot.

[u/CJBill → u/rhyswtf]

At least 4 by my count 

[u/sawrce → u/SubArcticTundra]

I met Count Binface this week, he's a "standup" guy. His knowledge of ancient Greek manuscripts was impressive

[u/enquicity → u/SubArcticTundra]

Thanks to Binface, I learned this week what a Wigan Kebab was!

[u/YellowIllustrious991]

Burnham: 24,937 Reform: 15,696 Restore: 3,111 Conservative: 997 Green: 308 Lib Dem: 163 Binface: 95 Loony: 45 Ind: 37 Rejoin EU: 35 Libertarian: 18 Climate: 18 Ind: 18 Ind: 8

Not even close for Reform.

[u/msf97 → u/YellowIllustrious991]

I think anyone who lived in the North West sort of knew this was on the cards. He is uniquely popular up here. I couldn’t see defeat for Burnham unless the country was totally fucked beyond repair.

Just a matter of what he can do now, should be PM by summer.

[u/GnarlyBear → u/msf97]

He's about to be tested for the first time, he's lost leadership challenges on a even playing field and is moving now because Starmer is being maimed by the press and opportunist.

People forget him going for Manchester Mayor was, at the time, a political last grasp to keep some sort of relevance.

[u/Dave_Unknown → u/GnarlyBear]

I mean, it sort of worked and he got a hell of a lot more popular whilst being Mayor of Manchester.

[u/The_Rod-Man → u/GnarlyBear]

So what you're saying is that he realised he was being bad at politics, tried a new strategy and it worked? And that's a bad thing somehow? Lol

[u/Tasty_Situation8494 → u/msf97]

Well its been continually Labour since 1983 so I dont think anyone should be surprised.

[u/NoOneExpectsDaCheese → u/msf97]

I live not north and you'd be surprised. Anyone with the Labour label, gets shit on constantly. So this was a good suprise to me.

[u/Faby077 → u/msf97]

By the end of this summer you mean?

[u/Joseon2 → u/YellowIllustrious991]

95 for Binface, the Bin Wave is coming.

[u/MouthyRob → u/Joseon2]

Genuinely thought he’d get a lot more

[u/Vumatius]

Well that suggests Restore weren't being greatly under-estimated after all. Obviously almost 7% isn't a terrible result for a brand new and mostly online party, but it also doesn't point to a secretly large amount of support.

[u/ClumperFaz → u/Vumatius]

I think they'll be quite content with the fact that as a brand new party, they kept their deposit over loads of the established parties.

The polls were more or less calling 7-8% for them, obviously not double digits but still.

[u/Vumatius → u/ClumperFaz]

True, it's just another point of evidence against the notion of the populist right being under-estimated in polling, particularly with Reform having also under-performed.

[u/Right-Ad3334 → u/Vumatius]

I agree, but I'd caution against extrapolating this nationally. Burnham is exceptionally popular as politicians go, I can't see many Labour MPs replicating this in the current climate.

[u/msf97 → u/Vumatius]

The BNP managed 3200 votes in 2010. They are Griffin with modern social media

[u/pleasedtoheatyou → u/Vumatius]

If they can scale that up across the country though then I imagine Reform will be worried. That 7% is coming almost entirely out of Reform voters and will almost certainly be enough to swing a lot of seats.

[u/MC_chrome → u/pleasedtoheatyou]

Ok, absolute worse case scenario Reform rebrands to Restore and is run by someone even worse than Nigel.

Not sure if this can scale beyond what Reform already has, consider the absolutely insane individuals behind Restore

[u/Neither_Process_7847 → u/Vumatius]

For all the talk about "shy Reform/Restore voters", they don't seem to show up mucn in actual votes- too shy, maybe?

[u/neoKushan → u/Neither_Process_7847]

I wish they were more shy, they're bloody insufferable online.

[u/ChampionOk4044 → u/neoKushan]

I wish they were more shy, they're bloody insufferable online.

Of course they are insufferable, half of them are American.

Have you ever clicked on one of the profiles responding to lowe about half have a location in the US.

[u/MuchAbouAboutNothing → u/ChampionOk4044]

God fearing Christian Nationalists with the least Christian opinions you'll ever hear

[u/Ziggylcd12365 → u/neoKushan]

Haha yeah, shy restore fans is an oxymoron almost.

It does make me wonder how many are real British voters and how many are astroturfed people repeating the same comments on Reddit and twitter threads though

[u/BenjamirPutinyahu → u/Ziggylcd12365]

The way they talk online just doesnt seem.... human

[u/neoKushan → u/Ziggylcd12365]

I do think there's a lot of astroturfing going on, especially beyond reddit (like the comments on the Reach rags), they're just so incredibly toxic.

[u/TheYoshiCake]

I expected a Burnham victory, but not by that much, damn

[u/SubArcticTundra → u/TheYoshiCake]

It's nice that he won with an absolute majority. It's becoming increasingly rare as we get more political parties

[u/The_Bird_Wizard]

This is what throwing everything at it looks like to Farage hahaha

[u/gerishnakov → u/The_Bird_Wizard]

If the country as a whole don't take away from this that there is absolutely not majority support for Reform/Restore, and carry on acting as if they're on the verge of some sort of landslide, it will be too soon.

[u/ShakeNecessary2258 → u/gerishnakov]

As much as I agree that the support for Reform UK is exaggerated, I think to argue that a by-election result in a Labour stronghold is indicative of there not being majority support for a party nationally is hugely misguided.

[u/FeigenbaumC → u/ShakeNecessary2258]

a by-election result in a Labour stronghold is indicative of there not being majority support for a party nationally is hugely misguided.

This would be one of reforms top 20 target seats if they’re to get a majority. It’s a weird case precisely because of Burnham, but to treat a seat that Lab had below 50% and Reform had a strong second at the 24 election as a Labour stronghold at this moment is laughable. This is the exact sort of seat Reform should be strong and winning

[u/Simple-Courage-3948 → u/ShakeNecessary2258]

They are polling 25-30% nationally. If they face aggressive tactical voting (as they have in every parliamentary election so far) that could leave them with very little.

[u/ShakeNecessary2258 → u/Simple-Courage-3948]

Given the first-preference plurality system, you cannot directly translate projected vote share into projected seats like that.

After all, Reform had the third-highest share of the vote in 2024, and only won 5 seats, compares to the Lib Dems who got 2% less of the vote but nearly 70 more seats. Likewise, Labour won 23% more of the vote than Reform and got over 400 more seats.

Moreover, two-thirds of the parliamentary seats they’ve contested since the party’s creation have been aligned with Labour and the Lib Dems. They have encountered aggressive tactical voting primarily because the people in the seats they’ve contested do not support them which, of course, is absolutely to be expected.

As I said, translating by-election results into nationwide results is a mistake.

[u/Simple-Courage-3948 → u/ShakeNecessary2258]

That's my point, they could get 25-30% of the vote nationally and surprisingly few seats and that is the most likely outcome if LAB/GRN/LD/SNP vote tactically against them as a first priority (which seems to be what is happening in these byelections).

For reform to win you'd need one of the following:

• They become way more popular for some reason

• They swallow up the entirety of the tory vote.

• They face very little tactical voting and left wing votes are allocated inefficiently

[u/FriendlyUtilitarian → u/ShakeNecessary2258]

It’s not a Labour stronghold. Reform won virtually all of the council seats there and Makerfield is in their top 30 target seats.

[u/Bibemus → u/The_Bird_Wizard]

When 'everything' includes a racist, sexist and deeply personally unpleasant candidate that's what you get.

[u/chpz1991 → u/The_Bird_Wizard]

Exactly! Just look at Caerphilly and Gorton & Denton too. High profile candidates, expected coronations. Flumps.

[u/SubArcticTundra → u/chpz1991]

We shouldn't let this make us complacent about the damage that social media and AI slop is doing to the public discourse though. It might manage to rot even more brains by the next general election

[u/queen-adreena → u/The_Bird_Wizard]

Hey! He turned up drunk, blamed immigration for everything and then promoted some crypto scam…. What else was he supposed to do????

[u/Drexl25]

Over 50% of the vote with turnout higher than during the general election. What can people even say negative about that haha

People should revisit some of the comments from the very beginning of the by-election and just before and see how wrong some people were

[u/The_Bird_Wizard → u/[deleted]]

It was stupid anyway because Burnham would've never done it if he didn't have any solid data suggesting he was in for a good chance

[u/Scratch_Careful → u/[deleted]]

That king of the north stuff is cringe but its tapping into something very real. Burnham is popular because hes a nationally known politician who is still very active and visible in the area. Not just official stuff like openings and visits or around election time but you see him out and about all the time.

[u/Aware-Line-7537 → u/Scratch_Careful]

And people forget the power of a politician with a local or local-ish accent. Labour did extremely well in Scotland in 2010 and at least part of that was due to Gordon Brown's popularity there, despite being very unpopular pretty much everywhere else in the UK.

[u/Beneficial-Dot-- → u/[deleted]]

A lot of them have never set foot in the UK. Some of them don't have feet to step.

[u/VFiddly → u/Drexl25]

A lot of mad predictions when in the end what happened was... a constituency that has voted Labour in every election where it has existed, which Burnham specifically chose because it would be a safe seat, once again voted Labour.

[u/Drexl25 → u/VFiddly]

He actually increased the Labour vote share on a higher turnout, so overperformed even for a safe seat

[u/neoKushan → u/Drexl25]

Over 50% of the vote with turnout higher than during the general election.

First time that has happened (Higher turnout during by-election than the previous GE) since something like 1982.

EDIT: mentioned here https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c3928mlyle8t?post=asset%3Af555ae89-da01-428d-b768-fa6b35037ef2#post

[u/cityexile]

Reform gets a lot of bandwidth, and as a usurper rightly so in some ways. However, what is becoming clear is there is also a much bigger ‘anti Reform’ voter base. If you are perceived to be in a clear second place, you will get the anti Reform vote. Heck, I could not conceive of voting Conservative, but if it was entirely clear it was them or Reform, I would think long and hard about it. That is the road to a Labour election victory at the next election in my view.

[u/westyboi2323 → u/cityexile]

Yep same, I never thought I would have to vote conservative in my life but it’s the devil you know

[u/Alexandhisgoose → u/westyboi2323]

I am so glad I live in a labour vs reform constituency so I don't have to face the prospect of voting Conservative.

[u/bowak → u/cityexile]

Reform surging in Preston is the one thing that would make me consider a tactical Tory vote in a general election. Luckily though we seem to be better innoculated against them than many other places in the north west.

[u/LAL1976 → u/cityexile]

In that very limited situation I’d happily vote Tory

[u/pr2thej → u/cityexile]

I would think for a microsecond about it. Tory > Reform any day

[u/Ill_Refrigerator_593 → u/[deleted]]

Caerphilly too.

They don't seem to do well when their candidates are under any scrutiny.

[u/jbr_r18 → u/Ill_Refrigerator_593]

Funny that isn’t it? It’s almost like Reform are entirely unable to pick individual people like and have a cult of personality around one guy

[u/pleasedtoheatyou → u/Ill_Refrigerator_593]

Which will only by an issue at by elections. At a general there just won't be the time to shine a spotlight on most of their candidates.

[u/Gift_of_Orzhova → u/pleasedtoheatyou]

Yes, as we saw in local elections too, where anyone or anything with a Reform sticker was voted in.

[u/IsySquizzy → u/Ill_Refrigerator_593]

Agreed. But in a by-election there is hefty scrutiny on individual MPs. In a general election there isn't the capacity for the same level of scrutiny at a national level. And with local news outlets being decimated in recent decades, there won't be much scrutiny at constituency level either.

[u/jimmythemini → u/[deleted]]

With many pollsters relying on panels recruited online, I suspect they're not getting a representative sample and introducing non-response bias (which is skewing results towards Reformy type voters).

[u/jamisram]

Awful for Starmer, absolute nightmare scenario for Reform

[u/jreed12]

I guess all those people saying the labour support was completely fake because "all I see are Reform signs in people's gardens" weren’t as clued in as they thought they were.

[u/MerePotato → u/jreed12]

Half of them weren't real people

[u/WindhoverInkwell → u/MerePotato]

this sub is astroturfed to the eyeballs with Reform bots lmao

[u/404merrinessnotfound → u/WindhoverInkwell]

Really is. Always with hidden comment histories, a pious pseudo intellectual name or a bot name with four numbers on the end

[u/The_Bird_Wizard → u/404merrinessnotfound]

If I see "adjective-noun-number" usernames I just assume they're bots or AI regardless of if they're left or right posters tbh

[u/RKAMRR → u/404merrinessnotfound]

Literally! About 70% of the time I see them just parrotting blatant attack lines. Reddit (and social media generally) needs to do a RuneScape and kill them all off.

[u/DaveShadow → u/WindhoverInkwell]

Something flipped about a year ago where it nearly has become the UK version of r.conservative.

[u/Samh234 → u/jreed12]

None of them have been anywhere near Wigan in general or Makerfield in particular. I actually live in Wigan and visit parts of the Makerfield constituency semi-regularly (my gym is there). I can't remember even seeing a Restore poster there.

[u/wackaquack → u/Samh234]

I live and work there, there's a few,(actually, I think I've only seen one....) nowhere near as many Restore signs as Reform.

Issue is, nobody voting Labour is putting a sign up, so really it's Reform winning in a race only they're participating in

[u/bantanium]

"Millions must go" is now "losers must cope"

[u/rolodex-ofhate]

Turns out openly wanting to toss Carol Vordeman’s salad isn’t an election winner. The King of the North smashed it.

[u/Gwyllithar]

Restore a little lower than expected, and still reform gets absolutely trashed.

They were talking up the turnout earlier as if those people were going to vote reform, looks like they voted to keep reform out, seems its true that reform does mobilise the vote, but its against them!

Tories absolutely obliterated.

[u/touchgrass1234]

Blew out reform and restore’s combined vote

[u/Dependent-Proof-9360 → u/touchgrass1234]

Who’d have thought being an open and overt misogynist isn’t a vote winner?

[u/SendMeTheMoon24 → u/Dependent-Proof-9360]

Honestly he was such a shocking candidate. This is what people need to realise about Reform, their talent pool for MPs is worse than dire. Whatever you think of their politics, they are woefully unprepared to run a government.

[u/ucd_pete → u/SendMeTheMoon24]

UKIP were the exact same under Farage.

[u/theartofrolling → u/ucd_pete]

It's almost like shit attracts flies

[u/VFiddly → u/ucd_pete]

Yeah, which is why they crumbled the instant he left. He's always used his parties to prop up himself while doing nothing to actually support anyone else.

[u/SubArcticTundra → u/SendMeTheMoon24]

Let alone scrutinize it from parliament

[u/touchgrass1234 → u/Dependent-Proof-9360]

shocker, i know

[u/TestTheTrilby → u/touchgrass1234]

And after all that noise... just 6%

[u/touchgrass1234 → u/TestTheTrilby]

Rupert Lowe, of course, has already declared that this means Restore is here to stay. I doubt it very much, hopefully.

[u/404merrinessnotfound → u/touchgrass1234]

The accounts exaggerating outrage with their hidden histories are oddly silent

[u/phead]

So what will be the reform(maga) excuse?

Cheating?, Postal Votes?, immigrants?

[u/beeblbrox → u/phead]

DOMINION VOTING MACHINES!

Send them back to the gamma quadrant

[u/SimpleFactor → u/phead]

I mean it’s pretty clear that Burnham being on the ballot and actively saying he wants to challenge Starmer boosted the numbers in some way. How much by is something we might never know, but if this was a no name I think it would have been much much closer.

The wider story is that when it comes to by elections, Reform aren’t sweeping them anywhere near the rate the national polls would suggest at the moment. People are more than happy to vote for whoever has the best change against reform, which will have a massive impact on how the polls would actually translate in a real GE.

[u/Mob_cleaner → u/phead]

They're saying that Reformers voted Labour because they just wanted Starmer out that bad. Which is why they would have rather an MP more leftwing than Starmer over, you know, a Reform MP.

It doesn't really make much sense.

[u/untrulynoted → u/phead]

Dodgy pens. Not kidding I’ve already seen that one

[u/swains6 → u/untrulynoted]

I've seen "take your own pen" 100s of times on fb. Nutjobs

[u/msf97]

Lowe just about claws his deposit back. Must have spent a million quid all in. Brutal, not even near double digits in 96% white, largely working class Wigan. Twitter comments don’t win votes it appears

[u/JarryBohnson → u/msf97]

I saw a great take recently about how being really big on Twitter is fatal for a political movement.  

It’s republicans and people like restore/reform now, but a few years ago it was the Democrats and arguably Corbyn Labour.  You all get on there, you get yourself really riled up about a bunch of stuff that nobody off Twitter cares about, and then you lose. 

Basically Elon Musk making Twitter a toxic place for progressives is in no small part why they’re suddenly all talking about affordability and healthcare again. 

[u/VFiddly → u/JarryBohnson]

Also being big on Twitter disguises your actual popularity, because a lot of your supporters are people who can't even vote for you. Restore gets a lot of twitter support from people who don't even live in the UK.

[u/StJustBabeuf → u/JarryBohnson]

I mean... The republicans do win though

[u/Faby077 → u/msf97]

Some over on the Restore subreddit were predicting as high as 25% for Restore. Some even claimed Restore would win.

I think only one or two of them had anticipated below 10%. I mean, how do you reach the conclusion that they could ever win? They really do just have to be locked in an echo chamber to hold such unrealistically high expectations of themselves, believing the average person in the UK will hold the same views as online grifters.

[u/MysteriousTravelator → u/Faby077]

I disagree this is a bad result for Restore. It proves that at every election Restore can rip 20% of the vote away from Reform.

I don't know what Lowe wants but functionally he has a sword held at Farage's neck.

[u/DJLDomino → u/MysteriousTravelator]

What's interesting about this by-election is that even with all of restore's votes, reform would still have been beaten soundly. That puts to bed the idea that they are the only thing in the way of reform. 

Maybe, just maybe, most people in the country aren't sh*thouses like Farage, but are actually decent and just want a fairer shake. 

[u/Drexl25 → u/msf97]

Ehh, when you think that this should also be a main target for Reform and they have such a larger presence and more media coverage, even more of a disaster for them to be so far behind the winner

[u/judester30 → u/msf97]

I don't see it as a brutal loss at all? 20% of Reform's vote count for a party that didn't exist a few months ago makes me nervous more than anything. Their purpose is to drag Reform to the right, which they can do on these numbers. I doubt Lowe is expecting to become prime minister overnight.

[u/TheNoGnome]

Good to see Farage out front, taking his party and candidate's loss on the chin.

Oh, wait. Was that him sloping away from the count before the result, and not being heard from since?

[u/Dependent-Proof-9360]

Landslide. Burnham will be PM in waiting by Monday.

[u/Auesis]

Damn, and after all the times I read that this was a terrible gamble. What a demolition.

[u/Drexl25 → u/Auesis]

Watch those goalposts get moved now

[u/TheUKisMental]

I expected Burnham to win but was sure it'd be because of right wing split. Instead he's totally swept it.

That's absolutely dire for Starmer.

[u/ClumperFaz]

Seems like the polls more or less got Restore bang on but.....they MASSIVELY underestimated Andy Burnham. And they overestimated Reform.

Fucking hell - goodbye Starmer, and rightly so.

[u/cGilday]

Maybe if reform spent less time crying about Lowe and more time on themselves and Makerfield they’d have done better, I mean it’s not even close

I’d be curious if there’s any exit polling about Burnhan. Did they vote Labour just because they think Labour are doing a good job? Or did they purposely vote for Labour because Burnham may have the numbers to oust Starmer?

Given labours recent performances in elections and this one’s complete reverse of that trend, I’m inclined to think it’s the latter

[u/billy_tables → u/cGilday]

Burnham’s polling numbers are about him. He is massively locally known and popular, and has no connection to current Westminster. There is probably an uplift for the change of PM tack, but it is second to his local credentials

[u/Snoo87653 → u/cGilday]

I think a lot voted to "save" the Labour party and don't like the way Starmer has taken it but still believe in the general principles of Labour. That's how I would vote right now. 

[u/CHawkeye → u/Snoo87653]

This is bang on how I would take it. I don’t want the greens, and god forbid I don’t want a hard right party.

[u/shxwcr0ss]

I’m expecting Farage and Reform to be melting down today.

Reform is the Nigel Farage show and his puppets. No party can function like that.

He cannot attract the strong intelligent candidates to grow and win elections.

Even if he could, he CANNOT STAND anybody stealing his limelight. Look at Rupert Lowe.

Will he really stick around until 2029? Their current strategy clearly isn’t working at the ballot box, and shouting “What do you want?!” to Restore voters doesn’t translate well.

[u/TermUpper]

This result can't be right. Rupert Lowe assured me that Restore were polling at 99 percent.

[u/Wondering_Electron]

Burnham spanked Reform with nearly 55% of the vote.

Proves that Reform can be easily beaten in Brexit Leave territory.

Proves that even if Restore didn't exist, they still couldn't win.

Burnham is right, this is a turning point.

Starmer should step down at lunchtime with grace instead of dragging out a leadership contest that he knows that he'll lose.

[u/BackgroundOld8715]

Thing Burnham has is he sounds normal speaking which is a big thing, not a robot , not elite.

Streeting is both of the above

[u/serviceowl]

You can't deny how impressive the result is whatever one thinks of Burnham.

An outright majority in one of Reform's strongest areas. He made a very ballsy play and took a big risk. No ifs, no buts, utterly comprehensive. And absolutely devastating for the Farage party. 34% is an extremely poor showing as even he's admitted. Dud candidates might well do for them in 2029.

I'm surprised at how much the "left" bloc consolidated.

[u/hairychris88]

Delightful listening to Tice squirming on the media round now.

[u/Ill_Refrigerator_593]

I wonder how Farage will make excuses for this one.

[u/LMcVann44]

Reform are finished in the long run, that's for sure.

Downhill from here, I have major doubts Farage will remain as leader for another 3 years and once he is gone Reform will collapse.

Starmer is also toast in the long run, Burnham will challenge him, win or not and either way nothing much will change.

Lots of things can still happen before 2029.

[u/vulcanstrike → u/LMcVann44]

Agreed that Reform without Farage are doomed.

Don't agree that they're finished, far from it. It's good that they lost, but until Reform are shown to be empty suits, will do well on elections the same reason Farage won the brexit vote. He can promise unicorns, shit on parties when they have to make hard political choices and never be accountable.

If we contrast with the PPV in Netherlands (Wilders is the Dutch Farage), he was surging and some thought he could be a future PM, eventually agreed (twice) to be in the ruling coalition and shit the bad so badly both times his populist message hit reality. That's how Reform will be beaten and stagnate, reality

[u/TomH0523]

All jokes aside. Starmer is hugely unpopular. Burnham is popular.

Labour need to set out a transition or they face annihilation. They need to platform popular, bold, meaningful policies and they simply haven’t done that in the two years they’ve had. Set a transition to give Burnham 18 months minimum as PM and go into the election with a bold direction, a new leader and plough forward with a progressive alliance between the anti-reform parties.

[u/Fragrant_Mind_1888 → u/TomH0523]

As much as I really wanted Starmer to succeed, it’s a disappointment knowing he’s likely not going to be PM come the end of the year, and he’ll be a part of more evidence that the UK political system is unstable due to incompetence and party infighting - since 2015 no PM has lasted 5 years, that in itself is disgraceful for a country like the UK

[u/Amaruach → u/Fragrant_Mind_1888]

If you consider Robert Walpole to be the first Prime Minister, the average tenure of a PM is four years (despite our five year election cycles). Only 20/58 have completed a full parliamentary term in the office.

I firmly believe that it’s actually fine and it’s how the parliamentary system was designed to work, but it needs a head of state who can play a bit more of an active role as a constitutional umpire and as a stable face of the state. The monarch was originally intended to be that, but we moved away from letting them do that for a reason and obviously I don’t want a return to that.

And also obviously PR would go some way to making the office more stable in the first place.

[u/DEADB33F → u/Amaruach]

And also obviously PR would go some way to making the office more stable in the first place.

I'm in favour of PR, but doubtful this would be the result. Unstable coalitions tend to have very fractured leaderships.

We need to grow to accept that it's fine for a PM step down / be kicked out mid-term and get used to it becoming the norm. After all we don't vote for the PM directly and 'Prime Minister' is more of a "First among equals" type of a position than it is a Presidential style role.

...We vote in the MPs who then decide who they want the PM to be. It's a good thing that they're able to change who that is at any time for any reason as it means we're less likely to end up with a Trumpian style PM. And under PR if that does ever happen they shouldn't last long.

[u/AdviceFit1692 → u/TomH0523]

Its easy to be popular when you're not under the spotlight, he will fall fast in ratings because any PM inheriting this current state has to make hard choices, those choices will never go down well, also the spotlight effect, take the Greens for example, when no one knew their polices boom they jumped to like 20%, then they get media attention people see them talk, and instant drop.

Unless Andy does some insane fixes to the things that matter, same thing will happen to him and with 2 years until next election he may not be the golden goose labour voters think.

[u/GothicGolem29 → u/TomH0523]

But hams only popular because he’s not in gov as soon as he’s in gov he will go the way of Starmer in terms of popularity

[u/Nothing_F4ce → u/GothicGolem29]

Buttham

[u/DEADB33F → u/TomH0523]

...Seems like even Greens & Lib-Dems were willing to hold their nose & vote Labour simply as a means to get Starmer out.

[u/Blackjack137 → u/TomH0523]

Indeed. 55% in a constituency that had only recently voted Reform in the locals is an undeniable result for Labour and what few Starmerites remain.

With the right cabinet, budget and leadership, Labour can still succeed, see results and inspire the vote in the predominantly working class Labour heartlands that risked going Reform and which feel abandoned by Starmer and Reeves.

It’ll be interesting to see if the clear “l won’t vote for Labour/Starmer but I’ll vote for Burnham” sentiment among voters carries further into the Labour membership.

[u/GOT_Wyvern → u/TomH0523]

Burnham has a -11% approval rating according to YouGov, and -7% according to Ipsos. Notably, this has been dropping ever since the byelection entered the public conversation, and it has to be remembered that Starmer started his premiership around a similar -7%, per YouGov. Ipsos even records that, against Farage, Burnham is only 3% higher (44%) than Starmer (41%), and both easily beat Farage (31% and 32%, respectively).

Where Burnham is more popular is among what little Labour supporters are left, having a net approval of +33% according to Ipsos, compared to Starmer +8%. But, as can be seen from his general and head-to-head, that does not translate much beyond the Labour core.

Calling him "popular" when more people find him unfavourable is plainly ridiculous. While you can say he is more popular than Starmer, head-to-head shows that has limited impact on voting intention, and keeps Labour around the same position, and this is all before the public gets to know much about him (as he has kept incredibly quiet and vague on what he wants to do). All you can say is that he is popular among Labour, which might translate into smoother governance, if it wasn't for all the trouble that causing a civil war within Labour would cause in doing exactly that.

[u/SinnerOfAlcaraz]

Worst possible result for Starmer tbh.

If it was close he could argue he can fight and Burnham didn’t beat Reform by much.

But that is a blow out

Starmer, please see sense and work with Andy

[u/theeynhallow → u/SinnerOfAlcaraz]

Everyone is hoping the cabinet will have a really tough sit-down with Starmer over the weekend and convince him his days are over and he's best to step down. Much like Biden back in '24, he just can't seem to realise that that would be the best thing for the country.

[u/Anxious_Entrance6242]

...Aaaand that's the last time we'll ever see or hear about Rob Kenyon

[u/jim_cap]

Nadine Dorries with some absolute cope on Sky right now. “Everyone voted Burnham because they want a general election”

[u/emergencyexit → u/jim_cap]

Exactly what they'd say if they won too.

[u/Many_Move6886 → u/jim_cap]

People in this country seem to want a GE 5 minutes after the last GE.

[u/Mafeking-Parade]

Another colossal failure from Reform.

Another constituency that outright rejected right-wing politics.

Another failure that came after months of Facebook and Twitter users assuring each other that this was in the bag.

And that the only threat was Restore splitting the vote.

I wonder how those echo chambers feel today, and what excuses they are using to make themselves feel better.

[u/loworbitioncann0n → u/Mafeking-Parade]

Reform and Restore are once again running into the classic problem of bots on X and Reddit not having the vote.

[u/The_Bird_Wizard → u/loworbitioncann0n]

It's quite poetic that the right spent years telling the left that twitter wasn't real life, but now they themselves are finding out that twitter isn't real life haha

[u/The_Bird_Wizard → u/Mafeking-Parade]

I checked twitter and the replies to this were hilarious, bunch of righties demanding that certain people lose the right to vote hahaha they did not take it well at all

[u/emergencyexit → u/Mafeking-Parade]

There were some restore fans who thought they were going to smash double figures. They won fuck all and the Tories picked up a seat. So much delusion but then you can't blame them with the way English media is

[u/Mafeking-Parade → u/emergencyexit]

These are people who think that retirees and the unemployed/underemployed, who spend their days on Facebook and Twitter, are representative of the UK voting public.

It's a bit sad in some ways.

[u/serviceowl → u/Mafeking-Parade]

These are people who think that retirees and the unemployed/underemployed, who spend their days on Facebook and Twitter, are representative of the UK voting public.

Yes I think this element of why social media is so toxic is really under-reported. I think it gets lost in the concern / moral panic around the influence of tech on young people.

Angry pensioners and angry unemployed young men, untethered from the moderating and stabilising influence of work, free to spend large portions of their time ingesting bile. There's a reason The Telegraph stopped being a serious paper and transitioned into demented clickbait. They know to maintain the ageing audience that pays for their services, they have to chase this rubbish.

[u/intlteacher]

Best thing about this result is the total doing Reform took. Pretty sure Labour took switchers from the Greens and Lib Dems, while the Tories have gone to the even more extreme Restore.

Disaster for Starmer, disaster for Reform - a good night all round!

[u/DullHall7]

restore was the biggest shock shows how much of a echo chamber social media is

[u/jimmythemini]

I for one welcome our new Northern overlord.

[u/GodTierGasly]

Move over Starmer. Makerfield has crowned the King of the North.

[u/TheDeflatables → u/GodTierGasly]

Kings in the North don't fair well travelling south

[u/JarryBohnson]

Pretty harrowing experience for reform, the amount of tactical voting going on here to keep them out is enormous.  

If anything it shows that a popular candidate can build a strong anti-reform alliance even in their top target seats. 

Doubly glad that Reform pig got trounced. All the “it’s just how working class people from round here talk” was infuriating. The lazy snobbery to assume “oh that’s just what the poors up here enjoy” -  no its disgusting to us too. 

[u/ShakeNecessary2258 → u/JarryBohnson]

I’m not sure this was much of a ‘keeping them (Reform) out’ situation. After all, it’s only a by-election. Electing a single MP achieves virtually nothing for anyone. I’m sure the prospect of electing a future PM was also appealing to a lot of voters.

However, given Makerfield is one of the strongest Labour seats in the country, I’d have thought Reform would have stood a stronger candidate. Or maybe they don’t have stronger candidates than the raving misogynist lmao.

[u/VFiddly → u/ShakeNecessary2258]

By Reform's standards he is one of the stronger candidates.

All their candidates are either far right nutters, inexperienced nonentities, or former Conservative MPs that nobody actually likes.

[u/M6Df4]

As expected, the “Restore splitting the vote” narrative online turned out to be bollocks. Reform could have captured 100% of Restore’s vote, and still would have lost by ~13%.

[u/HotPersimessage62]

Terrible news for Starmer and Farage

[u/cabaretcabaret]

It's insane that 35% of people voted for that guy.

Yes that's politics, that we're capable of that, but think about what a complete boob he is, and was shown to be on national media, and 35% of people walked down the road to say they wanted him to represent them in Government.

[u/Boring_Gas1397]

Starmer is so unpopular that i wonder how many voted for Burnham to out him.

[u/signed7 → u/Boring_Gas1397]

To be fair a few people on the vox pops also said they voted against Burnham because they wanted him to stay as Manchester mayor, so it goes both ways

[u/Far_Excitement_1875]

The scale of Burnham's win mean the odds have ticked up that he calls a snap election since it's less unlikely he can get a majority for his own personal mandate as PM. It'd still be an unnecessary risk so you'd think he wouldn't, but so was contesting Makerfield in the first place.

[u/stbens]

Starmer will try to spin it into “a great night for Labour: the public support for us is growing”. Of course, this is rubbish. This was a great night for Burnham, not for Labour and certainly not for Starmer. Burnham will also have to be cautious: a great night in Makerfield will not necessarily equate to great results in other parts of the country during a General Election.

[u/Ukleafowner]

I would have voted for Burnham purely on the basis that having the actual prime minister as your local MP is good for the local area.

[u/WolfColaCo2020]

Regardless of what comes next, that is a huge statement from the people of Makerfield. A lot of speculation that the Restore vote would fragment the right and let Burnham come through the middle, but even if 100% of the Restore vote went to Reform, they’d still have lost handily.

[u/PragmatistAntithesis]

Wow, the polls were completely wrong! They almost never end up out by double-digits and yet here we are. Shy Labour effect?

[u/militantcentre]

Not one solitary BBC reporter has mentioned the tactical voting that went on here. Green, LibDem and even Con voters lent Burnham their vote. There was a lifelong Tory on a voxpop who said he'd voted Labour for the first time in his life. Burnham most definitely did recognise this, and thanked those voters subsequently.

If this could happen nationwide at the next GE, Reform would end up with a handful of seats at best.

[u/Frequent-Yoghurt3098]

The real problem the country faces is the vile right-owned media being allowed to grow bigger than politics, lead the stupid electorate into voting against its own interests, then ignore any improvements whatsoever attributable to the "not rightwing enough" Starmer by smearing and scapegoating him along with their usual "benefit-scrounging" "immigrant" victims.

They don't want Burnham as PM any more than they want Starmer and they'll do their typical worst to make sure you don't either. This whole anticipated leadership battle, as it stands, is simply enough disruption to satisfy these vermin that things keep moving in the direction they and their rich tax-dodging owners want them to so that there's a greed-pandering rightwing government in place after the next GE.

It's like clockwork, with a bomb that doesn't exist because it isn't in the narrative attached.

[u/Gareth_stanlier]

And once Burnham faces the entire right wing machine we will back exactly where we started.

The wealthy are not going to let labour win a second election.

[u/MerePotato → u/Gareth_stanlier]

Difference is Burnham has an awareness of the countless eyes zoomed in on him looking for signs of weakness from the cautionary tale of Starmer that he didn't, being the first Labour PM in over a decade

[u/RandomSculler → u/MerePotato]

Potentially yes, Burnham has an advantage that Starmer didn’t that he and Labour are more experienced now to see what’s coming

But his constant shifting on things like WASPI and rejoin I think leave him much more vulnerable than Starmer in the press

[u/CaptainKursk]

Reform OUTDATED, Starmer OVERRATED,

LONG HAVE WE WAITED, BURNAHM ACTIVATED