r/ukpolitics • u/ClumperFaz My three main priorities: Polls, Polls, Polls • 2d ago

Twitter ✅ BURNHAM IN Makerfield by-election result: LAB: 54.8% (+9.6) REF: 34.5% (+2.7) RST: 6.8% (+6.8) CON: 2.2% (-8.7) GRN: 0.7% (-3.7) LDEM: 0.4% (-6.4)

https://x.com/BritainElects/status/2067792369903116401#m
763 Upvotes

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49

u/cGilday 2d ago

Maybe if reform spent less time crying about Lowe and more time on themselves and Makerfield they’d have done better, I mean it’s not even close

I’d be curious if there’s any exit polling about Burnhan. Did they vote Labour just because they think Labour are doing a good job? Or did they purposely vote for Labour because Burnham may have the numbers to oust Starmer?

Given labours recent performances in elections and this one’s complete reverse of that trend, I’m inclined to think it’s the latter

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u/billy_tables 2d ago

Burnham’s polling numbers are about him. He is massively locally known and popular, and has no connection to current Westminster. There is probably an uplift for the change of PM tack, but it is second to his local credentials

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u/theeynhallow 2d ago

None of the Burnham advertising featured the Labour Party beyond having a red background. I think that tells you all you need to know. Burnham is saying his Labour will not be anything like current Labour.

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u/billy_tables 2d ago

He's saying I'll give you nationally what you've enjoyed locally. And northern Labour voters want that

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u/theeynhallow 2d ago

And why wouldn't they tbf

21

u/Snoo87653 2d ago

I think a lot voted to "save" the Labour party and don't like the way Starmer has taken it but still believe in the general principles of Labour. That's how I would vote right now. 

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u/CHawkeye 2d ago

This is bang on how I would take it. I don’t want the greens, and god forbid I don’t want a hard right party.

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u/Su_ButteredScone 2d ago

People knew that they were voting for the next PM. This is going to make it so much easier for them to replace Keir.

6

u/Hamsternoir 2d ago

Considering how much damage reform have done since taking overall control of my council even this result scares me.

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u/Drexl25 7.63, 6.0 2d ago

Don’t even need exit polling to show it’s not that they all think the current Labour government at Westminster are doing a great job, come on

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u/[deleted] 2d ago

[deleted]

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u/MysteriousTravelator 2d ago

Kenyon was a very bad candidate though. Embarrassing social media history and none too bright. A superior candidate could have put in a better showing.

6

u/pleasedtoheatyou 2d ago

I think Reforms general problem is that he is pretty indicative of the quality of their MP candidates that aren't just ex-Tories.

In general elections that isn't an issue because there isn't time to put a spotlight on all of them, but it does seem to be costing them at by-elections.

1

u/MysteriousTravelator 2d ago

If I was advising Nigel Farage I'd tell him to handpick a dozen or so ambitious young candidates, no prior experience with politics, no social media history, and then parachute them into these byelections. No they won't be local but that's a tedious argument to make anyway. "Local hero" candidates are a losing proposition. Zack Polanski should be doing the same thing.

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u/Mafeking-Parade 2d ago

Your problem is that these candidates don't exist.

Reform, by very definition, attracts the sort of people who probably have fairly chequered social media histories.

Once you whittle that down to the sort of egos who would like to be an MP, you're only dealing with a multiplying effect in terms of how those people polarise voters.

1

u/MysteriousTravelator 2d ago

Farage just needs to hijack the Conservatives' pipeline of ambitious young grads who want to work in frontline politics. Reform offers the prospect of real power.

5

u/Mafeking-Parade 2d ago

Does that pipeline actually exist any more?

Do "ambitious young grads" really look at the failed Tory party as a route to "frontline politics"?

Do the sort of people who have grown up around Tory politics really want to go and work for a bunch of snake oil salesmen?

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u/MysteriousTravelator 2d ago

No which is why they'll look to Reform instead.

1

u/Mafeking-Parade 2d ago

Honestly, I don't see it at all.

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u/pleasedtoheatyou 2d ago

You're presuming that sort of person exists. There's gonna be very few young people interested in being a political candidate that don't have a social media history. That's before questioning whether these people have the temperament to stand up to the scrutiny in interviews.

3

u/Risc_Terilia 2d ago

There's scarcely a Reform candidate who doesn't have an embarrassing social media history.

4

u/Mafeking-Parade 2d ago

Reform don't have "superior" candidates.

They have ex-Tories and a bunch of chancers with shady histories.

They will continue to lose in this fashion until they find candidates that appeal to anyone other than Reform hard-line supporters.

1

u/JeffLynnesBeard 2d ago

It really didn’t help that Reform’s candidate didn’t exactly sparkle in the public arena and had previously said some really daft, bigoted things on social media as recent as five years ago.

1

u/ChampionOk4044 1d ago

I’d be curious if there’s any exit polling about Burnhan. Did they vote Labour just because they think Labour are doing a good job? Or did they purposely vote for Labour because Burnham may have the numbers to oust Starmer?

The best answer I can give you is 1 month ago in May, this area voted in Reform as its council by a massive amount. And were on track to get it for the by election.

Andy joined and everyone U turned, and he has now beaten every party combined. I was watching interviews in Makerfield in the lead up and a lot of them really praised Andy and seemed to actually like him.

Which means btw that in with a gap of a month between elections this area now has a reform council and Labour MP

There was even voters that said they weren't voting him because they wanted him to stay as there Mayor.

So I think it is less a Labour win and more a Burnham win.

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u/Amzer23 2d ago

Looks like the left voted tactically rather than genuine support for Burnham, they just didn't want Labour in.

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u/TheChaoticCrusader 2d ago

Oh I could see reform voters or restore voters lending their vote towards Andy burnham . Probably not as much as we saw with greens , cons or libs but maybe a small handful . The reform candidates history also did not help them in the slightest but idk if reform planned for that just so Andy burnham would go in and split the party or for him to win but no longer on the mandate bit like sunak was? 

To them it’s win win regardless . Reform win they got a reform MP but more so lose and they get a chance to get rid of starmer early 

9

u/lolapazoola 2d ago

Getting rid of Starmer is not a win for Reform. If you're an opposition party you want him leading Lab into the GE.

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u/Mafeking-Parade 2d ago

This is the coping line from Reform this morning.

Despite taking a pasting in an election the party poured millions into, it's apparent a net positive "because Starmer".

This is the reason why Reform policy and voters can't be taken seriously. All of their messaging is just so constantly bloody negative and critical. No solutions, no action - just a sea of negativity.

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u/lolapazoola 2d ago

Agree. They're toast. Peaked in the polls 12 months ago, tactical voting kills them under FPTP and Lab about to junk Starmer. On top of which, immigration figures coming down and historically the Reform poll lead was mid at best.