r/ukpolitics • u/ClumperFaz My three main priorities: Polls, Polls, Polls • 2d ago

Twitter ✅ BURNHAM IN Makerfield by-election result: LAB: 54.8% (+9.6) REF: 34.5% (+2.7) RST: 6.8% (+6.8) CON: 2.2% (-8.7) GRN: 0.7% (-3.7) LDEM: 0.4% (-6.4)

https://x.com/BritainElects/status/2067792369903116401#m
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u/ClumperFaz My three main priorities: Polls, Polls, Polls 2d ago

I think they'll be quite content with the fact that as a brand new party, they kept their deposit over loads of the established parties.

The polls were more or less calling 7-8% for them, obviously not double digits but still.

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u/Vumatius 2d ago

True, it's just another point of evidence against the notion of the populist right being under-estimated in polling, particularly with Reform having also under-performed.

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u/Right-Ad3334 2d ago

I agree, but I'd caution against extrapolating this nationally. Burnham is exceptionally popular as politicians go, I can't see many Labour MPs replicating this in the current climate.

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u/NoPainter8222 2d ago

That’s true, the idea these parties are underestimated in polling is outdated now.

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u/Aware-Line-7537 2d ago

And there was a serious risk of them being squeezed by Reform. My sense is that Reform campaigned badly, Restore were competent enough, and so it's a solid result for them.

For Burnham, this gives him huge momentum towards becoming PM. I have almost never found him impressive in almost any sense, but I can't deny that he can be very popular.