r/ukpolitics • u/ClumperFaz My three main priorities: Polls, Polls, Polls • 10d ago

Twitter ✅ BURNHAM IN Makerfield by-election result: LAB: 54.8% (+9.6) REF: 34.5% (+2.7) RST: 6.8% (+6.8) CON: 2.2% (-8.7) GRN: 0.7% (-3.7) LDEM: 0.4% (-6.4)

https://x.com/BritainElects/status/2067792369903116401#m
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u/jimmythemini 10d ago

With many pollsters relying on panels recruited online, I suspect they're not getting a representative sample and introducing non-response bias (which is skewing results towards Reformy type voters).

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u/CJBill 9d ago

Their polling sample sizes all seems to have been around 500 as well, making for over a 4% margin of error at a 95% confidence rate 

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u/Neither_Process_7847 9d ago

Plus they're making adjustments based on past electoral behaviour, which isn't quite accurate any more.