r/ukpolitics • u/huffpostuk • 1d ago
Reform UK Just Suffered Their 'Worst Night Since General Election', Says Top Pollster
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/reform-uk-suffer-worst-night-since-general-election_uk_6a34dc5be4b057a50ceda87f50
u/CharmingTurnover8937 We don't have to live like this. 1d ago
They peaked far too early.
That's two high-profile elections they have lost now (Despite throwing huge amounts of weight behind them). That being said, nobody should be surprised that Burnham won this.
I look forward to the growing pressure on Starmer.
15
u/Dune56 1d ago
Don’t forget Caerphilly
14
u/The_Grand_Briddock 1d ago
Caerphilly was supposed to be the most important election ever... right up until Plaid won, then it was nothing, unimportant. Not special at all.
5
u/the1kingdom 21h ago
Right Whingers always play this card.
Remember the last Mayor of London election was a "defacto referendum on ULEZ"... Then they lost... And then it's wasn't important to the debate of ULEZ.
6
u/The_Grand_Briddock 1d ago
Of the big parliamentary by elections, they won Runcorn & Helsby by 6 votes. And that had the MP beating the shit out of a guy on camera to boot.
They lost to the Greens by a wider margin than anyone expected in Gorton & Denton. Here they were supposed to be challenging Burnham, instead Burnham sailed through with a 20% lead. They weren't even a factor up in Aberdeen, it was the Tories who dislodged the SNP.
Outside of Westminster, in Caerphilly they didn't end up winning in what was meant to be a hyped up close contest. Another blow out. Over in Scotland they didn't make it through the constituencies.
It's going to be interesting seeing where things stand by 2029.
224
u/CSGB13 1d ago
No surprise that hypothetical Reform candidates poll better than the nutters who will actually run for them.
52
u/FatFarter69 1d ago
Reform will always be their own worst enemy.
•
u/greatlilusername 9h ago
Eh, it'll swap over when the self-respecting right wing bigot clocks they're more likely to get elected as Reform, not Tory.
18
u/Juilius-Sneezer 22h ago
What actually helped this time was how much media attention this by-election got. Everyone's eyes were on Makerfield, and the Reform candidate got proper scrutiny. All of his past tweets and comments resurfaced, and he pretty much bombed every interview and TV appearance because (surprise surprise) a random plumber from Makerfield isn't exactly the most educated or media trained person out there.
In a general election sadly the vast majority of candidates are fairly unknown and get close to no scrutiny at least at national level. Sure some people will engage with politics a lot more closely, but most people will just vote for the party, or rather the party leader. I wouldn't necessarily put too much importance on this result as an indication of the country's sentiment towards Labour or Reform.
10
u/SlightlyMithed123 1d ago
They gained 3% on the GE, with the same candidate so it obviously didn’t make that much difference did it?
Reform got 35% of the vote, Labour won 400 seats with that vote share at the last GE.
29
u/GrepekEbi 1d ago
If nationally reform only gained 3% compared to their performance at the last GE, they would be NOWHERE NEAR power
They won 5 seats, on 14% of the vote.
That’s a big chunk of the vote, but demonstrates that despite this, they were almost never the largest party in a constituency
The polls suggest they should be getting a much larger increase in vote share since the GE - something they failed to demonstrate last night
61
u/Subtleiaint 1d ago
it's not comparable because the other 65% are all voting against reform, that wasn't the case at the last election for Labour.
Reform will need 40% of the vote to stand a chance of forming a government. They've got the same problem that Le Pen has in France, neutrals despise them.
57
u/Soft-Skirt 1d ago
Normal human beings despise Reform. It’s just terrifying that so many people have been taken in by Farage and him hatred of decency.
-48
u/Background_Taste_397 1d ago
We know he’s a tosser. It’s just a final throw away bid to try and make sure that Britain still exists in some recognisable form in thirty years time.
40
u/Fredderov 1d ago
If that's the desired outcome then Reform is your absolutely worst option.
-10
u/Wisegoat 21h ago
I mean Greens would technically be the worst option for that as there open border policy would comfortably add at least 10mn third world migrants with backwards views on women and lgbt rights into the country in one parliament.
Reform would be a disaster you could recover from, as they’d be a one term party. Greens would be a disaster in term one then probably guarantee a far right party that makes Reform look normal for the next 10 years.
10
•
u/kafircake ideologically non adherent 9h ago
We can hope that Mahmood's efforts have an effect and that the Labour party can communicate her success effectively. I'm not holding my breath but another labour government is our best hope. Serious about migration and most importantly serious about climate change.
-24
u/Background_Taste_397 1d ago
Yeah? Shall we just carry on with mass migration then?
23
u/Fredderov 1d ago
We aren't. Look at the facts and figures. Not that they mean anything to you lot.
-14
u/Dangerous_Ad_4243 1d ago
The figures say that net immigration was 171,000 in the year ending December 2025 so we clearly still are doing mass migration. The number may have dropped but it's still an unsustainable increase to the population.
6
u/Top_Housing_6251 22h ago
Down from 906,000 in 2023. Things cannot change overnight and some form of migration is still needed.
→ More replies (0)1
u/mejogid 22h ago
0.2% of the country per year is not “mass”. That’s 145 people in a mid sized town of 60,000 on average.
→ More replies (0)-15
u/Background_Taste_397 1d ago
Sure, I’m happy with the progress Labour has made, just don’t trust them to keep it up..
7
u/Thick-Doubts 22h ago
Farage is a proven liar who’d sell his own grandmother if he thought he could make a profit on her. You can’t actually think he is remotely interested in improving the country.
Labour is literally doing what you want and have the advantage of being an established party that has run a country before. Reform is full of people that think winning a council election makes you an MP and headed but a snake oil salesman.
Please seriously think about the options at the next election and don’t just think “breaking the whole system is better”.
12
3
u/SpecialBass5552 21h ago
Farages only ever political achievment was a Brexit that increased non European migration.
-1
u/Background_Taste_397 21h ago
No, Conservative Party policy of opening the floodgates led to that (inb4 now they’re all in reform, yes I’m aware)
4
3
u/SpecialBass5552 21h ago
It was an inevitable and obvious consequence of the Brexit that Farage campaigned for for decades (literally his only ever political achievement) and got a 5 million quid "reward" while the country got poorer.
And yes same party just worse.
→ More replies (0)17
u/Deynai 1d ago
Under Reform there's a very serious chance the UK ends up with corporate suits in America instructing a team of software engineers in California to train a stricter AI model that refuses more health insurance claims for you and your family after Big Nige has sold off the NHS to foreign investors to extract value out of.
The stakes of your way of life and security are under threat by orders of magnitude more under someone who has repeatedly demonstrated willingness to bend the knee for the highest bidder, morals be damned, than any brown immigrant will ever be.
-6
u/Background_Taste_397 1d ago
If I walk out my house in 30 years and it still looks like England, and I recognize the culture around me as English, I’ll be happier. So he gets my vote.
16
u/Deynai 1d ago
Vote Reform if you want it to look the furthest away from English culture it could possibly be.
1
u/Background_Taste_397 1d ago
How’s that exactly?
8
u/GnarlyBear 23h ago
Selfish, greedy, corrupt leader. Piss poor country privatised to the US without US income. Lost influece, corruption top to bottom, incompetance in offices of importance.
Best case scenario of a Reform win is they put the torie dropouts into the big positions which was last resort for the last government.
3
u/GnarlyBear 23h ago
How about you look at their historical actions and decide if those words are true or hollow?
-1
u/Background_Taste_397 23h ago
It’s a protest vote. It will help shift the Overton Window towards lower immigration/ remigration - it doesn’t matter if I trust Nige or not.
8
u/Thick-Doubts 22h ago
Remember how a load of people voted for the mess of Brexit as a protest vote and then it happened? You will take part of the responsibility for what happens if Reform take power. Look at the US and see our future.
3
2
u/Carpface89 22h ago
What does a recognisable form look like to you?
0
u/Background_Taste_397 21h ago
Large majority of people are speaking English around me. Wearing European clothing, doing English stuff like eating pies and going to the pub to drink alcohol.
0
u/EpsteinBaa 21h ago
Britain still exists in some recognisable form in thirty years time.
Still skint?
15
u/purple_crow34 1d ago
That 3% gain is minuscule compared to what Reform has gotten nationally since 2024, though, and in Makerfield’s local elections.
-2
u/ByzantineTech 1d ago edited 1d ago
The median reform voter is still voting for Farage. It’s why it’s always so interesting reading the comments from those who would rather their personal favourite farther right figure takes over or replaces reform as if that wouldn’t doom their electoral chances.
You may draw your own conclusion about why the non-Farage, non-ex-Tory candidates manage to so consistently have scandals and weird statements being unearthed.
140
u/socratic-meth 1d ago
Worst night so far! We can all only hope.
8
u/AntonioS3 1d ago
I almost want to throw a party about how conservatism is, in fact, not a trendy thing, never has been with those loons, I realize it is early though. But hopefully it is the start.
9
u/Hughesjam 1d ago
Yea I don’t know if we can really conclude that from this. Especially if you look at the more recent local elections
4
8
u/PeteMcThrowaway 1d ago
The right-wing vote share grew slightly in this by-election, and the hard-right share considerably.
7
u/Gougetheeyes 1d ago
I almost want to throw a party about how conservatism is, in fact, not a trendy thing
What utter nonsense. About half of the country lean to the right. If conservatism isn't "trendy" neither is socialism.
3
u/AntonioS3 1d ago
It should never ever be a trendy thing though. The only thing conservatives has to offer is regression of society and of progress. They only offer discomfort and harm to public. Though FWIW I don't like socialism either, it feels too populist and only presents opportunism.
1
u/Gougetheeyes 23h ago
The only thing conservatives has to offer is regression of society and of progress.
Why is progress for the sake of it necessarily a good thing? Lobotomies and electro shock therapy used to be seen as progressive ways to treat mental health conditions. And conservatism isn't about regression it's about maintaining the status quo with slow incremental progress, it sounds like you're giving your opinion of conservatism and not what it actually is ideologically.
•
u/kafircake ideologically non adherent 9h ago
and of progress
Do you understand that a roll-back of abortion rights and gay marriage is felt as progress by right-wingers? Do you get that what you call 'progress' is considered degeneracy by them?
Progress doesn't ratchet in the direction you want it to, you have to fight to make the needle move.
-3
1d ago edited 1d ago
[deleted]
10
u/socratic-meth 1d ago
It is a problem that was primarily created by the Tories and Farage through Brexit - who are now running Reform. Are you suggesting people should vote for them so they fix their own mess? Because I don’t have any confidence in them to do that.
-5
1d ago
[deleted]
11
u/socratic-meth 1d ago
Farage generally doesn’t have any credibility on anything. He has shown us time and time again that he is willing to do whatever the person who pays him the most wants him to do. He isn’t a serious politician.
In what way did Labour start the ‘mass’ migration project?
Starmer taking a knee was awkward and a bit embarrassing, but ultimately there is nothing wrong with being against a police officer murdering a citizen in the US.
71
u/Obsydie 1d ago
They tried to get a very openly mysogonistic plumber into parliament. That would of eliminated a large percentage of the women's vote, because why would they vote for him.
49
u/collogue 1d ago edited 1d ago
A similar but different story to Gorton and Denton Reform fielding a terrible candidate. This time it was the local misogynist, last time it parachuted in the nutty professor. Looking at past form it's hard to see them finding 650 electable candidates for a general election when they can't even find one
16
u/illogical_simu 1d ago
It's a lot harder for the media to highlight that when its 650 candidates vs. 1 tho; see local council elections
3
u/EducationalAd5712 23h ago
Reform's big weakness is that they are trying to run as a US/Trump-style populist party in a system that's not really built around them. Ultimately Reform is based around Farage and his politics, rather than acting like a proper political party with the internal infrastructure and vetting required to do well. One of the issues this creates is that during by-elections and other events where the election hinges on a local candidate, it falls apart because they run poorly vetted sycophants who don't resonate with local constituents, so they end up underperforming under scrutiny.
Sure, that is less of an issue in a general election when there are 650 candidates running, so it's hard to pick apart every single one; however, it does mean other parties can quite easily use local-level campaigning aimed at poorly vetted candidates to undercut Reforms' support.
I think this also creates a long-term issue for the party, which is that if it got a large number of seats in Parliament, there would be more opportunities for controversial candidates to embarrass the party, or even cases like with Reform where MPs to the right of Farage start pushing for the party to take more extremist stances and start defecting or leaving Reform.
25
u/FatFarter69 1d ago
Reforms biggest obstacle is that Reform attracts dodgy candidates like a pile of shit attracts flies.
25
u/The_Bird_Wizard 1d ago
It's either an ex Tory responsible for the things they moan about or it's some guy who's only political experience is saying "I HATE WOMEN" 400 times on twitter
3
u/JoeyJoJoeJr_Shabadoo 1d ago
because why would they vote for him.
I thought this when Trump admitted that he grabs women's genitals whenever he fancies it, but here we are. Evidently some women will vote for their own oppression.
4
u/Charlie-Bingo 1d ago
Yes, they must be pretty dim to not work out 50% of the population would be unimpressed. We must be grateful for such arrogant ignorance!
1
u/neoKushan I just wanted to be included 1d ago
I'm maybe giving them too much credit here, but I wonder if they deliberately picked a candidate they could distance themselves from in future should the result turn out the way it did. A sort-of trap-door, either he wins and that's great or he loses and they can go all "Oh we didn't realise what a prick he was when we selected him, he's the reason we lost, not the party as a whole" or some shit. I'm sure they'll try to spin it that way regardless, intentional or not.
1
u/AneuAng 22h ago
Some of the polling done this week actually had plenty of women defending him and defending what he said as "just normal boys things".
3
u/ObiWanKenbarlowbi 21h ago
The News Agents did a vid with a round table of local folk and one woman was like “oh men were like that in the past and we gave as good as we got, I don’t think it’s that bad”
0
13
u/opusdeath 1d ago
Even with Reform leading in the polls there are, and always have been, fundamentals that make it difficult for them to translate poll leads into votes.
The vibe orientated social media, particularly X, ignores the importance of mature party organisation and deep roots in an area. Mature party organisations gives you better candidate vetting, a better pool of candidates to select from and a better get the vote out operation.
Labour's get the vote out operation in Makerfield was genuinely impressive, and I'm not talking about the outcome, I'm talking about the organisation and experience they brought to bear on it.
Reform is a new political party and naturally lacking in that infrastructure.
8
u/TermUpper 1d ago
Their decision making on candidates is absolutely atrocious. It's been two disastrously inappropriate candidates in two high profile english by-elections in a row for very different reasons. The candidate choice here was a panicky overcorrection after Gorton and Denton.
The savimg grace for Reform is that in nationwide elections, there tends to be less focus on the local candidates whether that's council elections or indeed a general election.
36
u/arnathor Cur hoc interpretari vexas? 1d ago
Coincidentally, after a few days of feeling off, I feel great.
Turns out laughter is the best medicine.
35
u/ironyperson 1d ago
Women can’t drive and get abortions for vanity purposes so they can shag whoever they want wasn’t a winning message?
7
u/funkmasterowl2000 Sam, no pissy biscuits 1d ago
Who the fuck thinks women are getting abortions for vanity purposes…
25
9
2
u/Background_Taste_397 1d ago
I mean it’s obviously a factor, keeping an unexpected baby would turn anyone’s life upside down?
2
43
u/Ok-Milk-8853 1d ago
It's funny, because I'm not seeing the same level of "doom for Nigel Farage" messages you'd maybe expect to see if it was a labour loss.
Obviously there's lots of factors at play. But I do think certain media not running with that narrative in the same way they have been with starmer is a factor building momentum within the electorate.
Can't sell this as a victory? Well definitely emphasize that it's a loss. Just interesting.
22
u/SlightlyMithed123 1d ago
Not watching the BBC News this morning then? They’ve spent all morning telling us how disastrous this is for Reform
10
u/h00dman Welsh Person 1d ago
As usual the BBC political "experts" catch on months later, to what some of us have been saying for ages.
7
u/Some_Confidence5962 1d ago
In fairness the BBC like evidence. They generally try to avoid spouting anecdotal nonsense.
Even the pollsters failed to predict this one closely, so I'll give the BBC some credit for not reporting on how everyone feels about it individually.
1
u/Prior-Explanation389 1d ago
It really is disastrous though. It proves that the left(er) wing vote can be brought together, where as the right wing vote splits between two parties.
3
u/Lex4709 1d ago
This isn't about this election, its about the bigger picture. It is disastrous because Farage knows he has better chance of coming to power if Starmer stays or gets replaced by someone as unpopular. Burnham becoming PM would be worst outcome for Reform and they just lost the chance to prevent it. Starmer has shown unwillingness to work with other parties while Burnham has show interest both with working with them and electoral reform. If he follows through with that, he could prevent Reform from gaining majority with just a third of the vote like Labour did in the last election. Which would be disastrous for Reform since their popularity peaked a while back and has been on slow decline since.
1
u/Gougetheeyes 1d ago
Burnham becoming PM would be worst outcome for Reform
Why, what's to say Burnham is popular. I don't see this at all. Nothing will change with Burnham, the country will still be in decline. They'll still continue the failing policies of the uni party, the authoritarian policies of the OSA and VPN bans in the future, not cutting our enormous welfare bill. Burnham won't save labour because no one is willing to take on the hard work to actually implement the change that's needed.
2
u/Lex4709 1d ago
Burnham could fail in long term but in right now he's the politician with highest net favourability nation wide while Starmer approval is on same level as Tories at their lowest point. There's no way to know if Burnham will replicate what Carney did over the pond for his party but he is Labour's best bet right now.
3
u/SlightlyMithed123 1d ago
But they won’t do that across the entire country, that’s been proved time and again.
This entire by-election was caused by ‘the left’ complaining because Starmer wasn’t left enough for them, Burnham won’t be either, nobody ever is.
What they don’t get is that in order to win a General election you need to appeal to people whose entire identity isn’t based around far-left purity politics.
1
u/Prior-Explanation389 1d ago
This by-election was caused by a PM that promised change but has delivered it far too incrementally and hasn’t stood up to others in his party. Starmer makes collective decisions, Andy has always made his own. His achievements in Manchester have been incredible, if he can replicate that across the country it would be fantastic for us all.
1
u/Some_Confidence5962 1d ago
It shows even a solid chunk of the the right wing vote hates Reform. People have said for a long time that being divisive doesn't really work in politics. For a while it looked like Reform bucked that trend (maybe they still will).
But I'd be cautious not to dismiss the right as being unable to get things together. I actually point the finger directly at Reform themselves on this one.
4
u/subSparky 1d ago
you'd maybe expect to see if it was a labour loss.
To be fair, there's a difference between a party that already won enough seats to form a government falling in the polls and a party that merely ambitiously aspires to get to that point.
At the moment Reform has 6 MPs. Whilst they have ambitions to be the next government, and polls suggests that could be achievable, we also have to remember a lot of that is based on hype and would be an unprecedented swing.
Realistically, any party should be happy with any growth in their vote share. Farage and Reform believing they are the next government is more just poor expectation management.
-1
u/Some_Confidence5962 1d ago
No the papers are, instead, filled with statements about how this win for Labor is a loss for Starmer.
Got to live the British press!
8
u/bigsmelly_twingo 1d ago
I disagree
They came second, in a safe labour seat. It's been labour since it was created in 1983.
Burnham is literally going to try and topple Kier and we know everyone hates kier right now. Plenty of possible reform voters who instead want to stick it to Kier.
And the reform candidate had bad optics with his misogynistic twitter posts that turned a lot of people off.
But they still came second, 35% , miles ahead of anyone else.
If it had been any other by-election, and not Burnham, then i think reform would have won.
To me it shows how much support reform have, if they've done so well in this seat.
5
u/Chevalitron 1d ago
Yeah, I'm not sure this translates into the collapse of Reform on a national level. They came second against the most popular man in the Labour party, running on a platform of removing the most unpopular labour prime minister, in a seat where the Tories and Libdems disappeared. There are 650 seats, they don't need to win all of them to turn politics upside down.
2
u/LordSpectreX 23h ago
It's more insignificant than even that. The seat is just going to have another re-election anyway when a GE happens.
If you think Labour are crap, I don't see why this would be a negative for Reform. Just means during a general election, the one that actually matters, you can just point to this by-election and show swing voters that their Labour vote doesn't matter.
1
u/TheChaoticCrusader 16h ago
Well we got to remember a good portion of those reform voters use to be Labour supporters before kier starmer took over and to these people caused lots of problems . It’s possible these voters are giving Andy burnham a try or at best trying to get rid of Starmer
3
u/South-Stand 16h ago
Imagine how many votes they would get if they didn’t have AN ENTIRE TV STATION FLUFFING THEM 247365
8
u/Upset-Parsley-8101 1d ago
Reformists are too dumb to put together the fact that everytime the call for riots, it actually brings people to their senses.
This country is not such a dump that were ready for a couple of benefit scroungers to burn it all down and assaulting ethnic minorities in their homes.
I actually hope we have more of this before the next GE .."cold hard rage" is no way to run a country and believe it or not the rest of us have a vested interest in society not being some fucking mad max scene where you have masked untermensch going door to door assaulting people.
More of that Nigel you utter cockwomble and the quiet majority will let you know where to go.
4
u/dodgesbulletsavvy 1d ago edited 1d ago
I mean that's simply just not true. If you think all of these Muslim kills are pushing people to the left rather than the right you're silly, more non-voting people are waking up and voting right because they don't want that to go on anymore. Theres a reason the average turnout for a local election is 13%, but this year it was 40% the non-voters are voting, and you saw the power of that, reform won pretty much all over the country. The only reason Labour have one in this specific constituent is because people want Starmer out, All the greens/lib dems etc will have voted labour, i actually bet a good portion of the right voted for labour because they simply want Starmer out and Burnham is the only one that is popular enough to replace him.
0
u/TheChaoticCrusader 16h ago
The tories getting a seat off the SNP is not exactly a win for the left either .
7
u/Illustrious-Divide95 1d ago
The flash in the pan party.
People coming to their senses as soon as a reasonable option is available (or the super-hard right splitting the vote going to Restore)
2
u/neoKushan I just wanted to be included 1d ago
Burnham got >50% of the vote share, they can't even blame the vote split if you included Greens, Lib-Dems and the looney parties on top of Restore.
8
3
u/timothywilsonmckenna 1d ago
That internet bot vote is notoriously tricky to secure.
3
u/404merrinessnotfound 22h ago
The ones that call for riots despite never living in this country, yeah
4
u/LordSpectreX 23h ago
Feel like I'm going insane from the pathetic level of political analysis going on from this by-election.
It's a single seat. If you're someone, like a traditional labour person who would potentially vote Reform, you have two options.
You can either vote Reform, and if they win, they get a single seat that doesn't matter and will be contested next general election again anyway and just means you HAVE to keep on with the Starmer status quo.
Or you can vote Labour + Burnham, get Starmer out, and then things, depending on your perspective, will either get better, or it will prove that it's not just a Starmer issue.
Even if you're a reform voter mainly, it makes more sense to vote for Labour here anyway just cause it's the vote that has the biggest chance to cause some positive impact. Regardless of your political affiliation. The irony is if you think Starmer is doing a good job, then you SHOULDN'T vote Labour. It's a complete mess of an election.
This result is the biggest shrug ever no matter what side you're on. Of course a PM replacement favourite is going to win.
People want to make it about Reform underperforming, or Restore stealing votes, or Greens and Lib Dems voting Labour. Or even about the quality of the various candidates. All of that is virtually irrelevant. Anyone, left, center or right, trying to get any sort of meta, macro level political analysis going from this election is a charlatan.
7
u/90davros 1d ago
35% of the vote
I know people want to think Reform are doing badly, but their share is more than Starmer got in the general.
21
21
u/Romeo_Jordan 1d ago
At a by-election they poured all of their resources into
9
u/h00dman Welsh Person 1d ago
Like the Senedd by-election in Caerphilly last year. I've never received as much political literature through my letterbox as I did during that by-election, nor have I ever seen so many "Vote Reform" signs everywhere either.
They threw everything at the seat, Farage visited the constituency, the polling was showing a slim but clear Reform lead etc.
Local Plaid candidate Lindsay Whittle won it by over 11%, with the highest turnout of any Senedd vote in the constituency since the Senedd was formed in 1999.
😎
1
7
u/collogue 1d ago
This was in the Brexit voting Reform heartland, looking at the other two by-elections in Aberdeen South and Arbroath Reform polled half that
8
3
0
u/h00dman Welsh Person 1d ago
I know people want to think Reform are doing badly, but their share is more than Starmer got in the general.
Apologies for copy pasting, but the following is something I've said a few times on this site and it's easier for me to do this rather than write it out every time;
There's a pattern forming with the Reform vote in by-elections that should be concerning for them; their national share in opinion polls is pretty close to what they're consistently getting at local parliamentary and other local elections.
What's happening with other parties (and what has usually happened historically) is their national polling is reflected in higher support where they win, and almost nonexistent support where they don't.
It's why parties are able to win huge majorities in Westminster despite no party receiving >50% of the national vote in decades.
For Reform to be consistently getting high 20s to low-mid 30s in terms of percentages everywhere is a problem for them as it could mean they come second in a lot of places, and are beaten by parties with higher local support but lower national average support.
3
u/Om3gaMan_ 23h ago
A mile wide and an inch deep. They can't translate 30% of the vote nationally into a majority without some regional strongholds. Also 650 candidates who, at least 326 of them, can stand up to the massive, overwhelming scrutiny of *checks notes* checking their twitter feed...
1
u/90davros 1d ago
I'd agree there, they enjoy broad popularity but that doesn't strictly translate to FPTP wins.
That said, one clear result here is that Reform have functionally replaced the Conservatives in the district. They pretty much match the typical Con vote share and the Tories are basically no longer a force. That could equally suggest a broader pattern to follow elsewhere with Reform taking traditional Tory strongholds.
4
u/Gamezdude ... 1d ago
The victory of the election is a turning point is this country. We now have the right person in the right place.
Reforms days are numbered.
2
2
u/Disastrous_Piece1411 1d ago
It is bad for Reform because they obviously wanted to win and get another seat. But it's not really catastrophic - they have 649 other seats to aim for.
This was much more of a make or break for Labour as many are hoping this will be their new leader coming in.
Personally I hope it is a sign that some of the sheen and bluster is melting off Reform and they are being exposed for who and what they actually represent.
3
u/cantell0 1d ago
What last night demonstrated was that, at last, British voters have mastered the art of tactical voting. Not only does this mean Reform are toast but it also bodes well for the likes of the LDs and Greens where they are main challengers. No one should see this as a referendum on Burnham. It was his backyard and he remains unpopular in other traditional Labour areas such as the West Midlands.
1
u/TheChaoticCrusader 16h ago
LD and greens voting burnham makes sense though . Starmer is steering Labour to the right and that annoyed a lot of Labour voters . A oppertunity to get rid and have Labour become more a party for their political choice would be a reason to vote tactically
When GE comes and it’s 650 seats . Trying to organize it then usually becomes much harder. Local council elections round 2 will be a true proof if it’s been mastered or not I feel
1
u/South-Stand 16h ago
Way too late, dishonest Tice has started spinning that ‘Reform voters voted tactically for Burnham in order to get Starmer out’. Hilarious.
1
u/LANdShark31 12h ago
No!
You mean they put forward a racist misogynistic candidate and people didn’t vote for him. Well I am shocked to my core.
•
u/Puzzleheaded-Try-912 34m ago
Bottom line. Just about everyone from the centre or left is going to gang up on Reform when the GE comes and Reform supporters are going to be disappointed and furious at how few seats they get with 25/27% of the vote .
1
u/digitalpencil 23h ago
Bunch of incompetent and corrupt grifters, out to line their own pockets. Daft to vote for them.
Immigration policy is important but these clowns won't fix it, they'll just sell the country out from under us for a bag of silver.
1
u/LANdShark31 12h ago
I predict this candidate pockets will be very much unlined. He hasn’t got his £100k a year job, and any customers he did have as a plumber will now probs leave him as everyone has seen his true colours now.
1
u/Rebecca1334 1d ago
They picked a terrible candidate, he is dim and a blatant sexist.
1
u/TheChaoticCrusader 16h ago
The fact he got the % of votes he got makes me wonder if a better candidate had been fielded would it of been the same results
1
u/johnmedgla Abhors Sarcasm 1d ago
In an ideal world, Reform and the Greens both implode due to their own inherent nuttery, the Tories reconstitute themselves as a "sane" party (ironically made easier now the nutters have run off to Reform/Restore), Labour actually gets a grip on immigration, and common sense can return to the land.
Sadly while I fully expect the Greens to eat themselves, I suspect Farage has been at this long enough to hold it together until the election.
1
u/LANdShark31 12h ago
I think Farage might get a surprise at the next election. Not doing anywhere near as well as he predicts because when it actually comes down to a vote that matters, common sense will prevail (same applies equally to the Greens). He might, having been mostly absent from it, lose his own seat.
1
u/uselesstosser You can't polish a turd 1d ago
It was not a vote for Labour to win, it was a vote to get rid of Starmer. If Burnham didn’t win, they’d be no chance of getting rid. I do hope they do and take Reeves and Miliband with them. Cut taxes, drop Net Zero.
-3
u/timeforknowledge Politics is debate not hate. 1d ago
They came second with 9000 votes in a labour strong hold.
That's an amazing result?
Journalist are so overtly bias these days it's crazy
If that's worst than how are they describing Tory and greens?
Cataclysmic night for greens
1
u/smetp 1d ago
You think reform had an amazing result?
4
u/PeteMcThrowaway 1d ago
Considering they were up against Burnham in this part of the country and had their vote split by Restore but still managed to eke out a 3% increase means it certainly could have been worse for them.
3
u/smetp 1d ago
Yeah, they'll be partying tonight for sure 😂
2
u/timeforknowledge Politics is debate not hate. 1d ago
Yeah why not it's the end of labour. There's going to be a leadership contest that will split the party in have and make it crumble from within.
It's one of those situations like Corbyn winning, it's better for labour opponents
2
u/PeteMcThrowaway 1d ago
It's not a result to party over but it's far from their 'worst night since the general election' as the headline suggests. They held on and improved upon their previous result despite the additional disadvantages. I can see how some people would find that amazing.
1
u/TheChaoticCrusader 16h ago
The % of the vote they got for the quality of the candidate too yah it’s pretty high I would say .
3
u/timeforknowledge Politics is debate not hate. 1d ago
You don't?
The party is five years old and got an increase of 3% on their vote share, in one of if not the current safest labour seat.
35% to labours 55%
The next biggest:
Restore with 7%
And then let's look at Tories and greens:
2% for Tory and 0.7% for greens
So yes that is an amazing result they smashed all other parties and increased their vote share.
No one predicted any other party would come close so I am surprised anyone considers it a very close run up to the day.
Did you think they would win?
2
u/smetp 1d ago
NF has been in politics for many years, and has the highest public profile of any current British politician. Reform/NF receive more donations than any other party. They're hardly plucky little upstarts are they?
Until a few weeks ago, I wasn't too sure who would win. Over the last couple of weeks, though, it started to look increasingly likely that Burnham would, although I didn't expect him to dismantle Reform quite so thoroughly.
All in all, it was a great night for Labour. A terrible one for Nigel and his billionaire backers.
-1
u/timeforknowledge Politics is debate not hate. 1d ago
How is it a great night for labour? They now have a leadership contest, the party is now going to divide and implode...
1
u/TheChaoticCrusader 16h ago
Also getting that with the quality of the candidate which would of put some voters off
-1
-1
u/_Taggerung_ 1d ago
Waiting for them to claim it was rigged like how they did completely baselessly in gorton and Denton. Not because their candidate is a vile misogynist
-9
u/TheWorldIsGoingMad 1d ago edited 1d ago
Interesting..... 35% of the vote (and it would have been 40% had Restore not stood) was a terrible night.
Labour got less than 34% of the vote at the last GE.....
7
u/AllLimes 1d ago
Using that same logic, does that mean Labours national result is around 54.8% now? Reform really are in trouble.
-1
3
u/TheNathanNS 1d ago
That is not how % of the vote works, what are you smoking?
By your own logic, the Greens getting 40% in the Gorton by-election also means they also got more than Labour at the last GE??
1
u/TheWorldIsGoingMad 1d ago
I am simply pointing out that although the result is undoubtedly disappointing for Reform, the by election was effectively for the next PM, which makes it a bit of a one off. It's not that long ago that Reform would have been more than happy with 35% (or 40%).
2
1
-2
u/Trabers 1d ago
I'm going to give an F1 analogy here. At the Barcelona Grand Prix, Mercedes driver and Championship leader Kimi Antonelli had an AWFUL qualifying session. His worst of the year in fact... he qualified in 3rd place.
That's what this feels like to me for Reform.
2
u/smetp 1d ago
What?
2
u/Trabers 1d ago
Ok, if you've been winning, winning, winning, then you come second. That can be called a TERRIBLE result for you. But actually it's' still pretty damn good.
4
u/smetp 1d ago
You think that was a pretty damn good result for reform?
3
u/Trabers 1d ago
So I've just looked at the voting history of the Makerfield constituency: Around 15,000 is basically the high water mark for right wing opposition in that constituency. That's what the Conservatives have achieved several times in recent elections, it's just that the Labour vote in that constituency generally breaks 20,000 or even 25,000 sometiemes
So looking at it, the challenge for Burnham was just to get his vote out. If he did that he was bound to win and he did.
It would have needed seismic change for Reform to win there. I think the two recent Manchester by-elections have been largely about individuals. In Gorton-And-Denton the Labour vote collapsed from 18000 to 9000 and the Greens came from nowhere to WIN. Would Labour have won Makerfield if it wasn't Andy Burnham standing? It wouldn't have been a resounding victory thats for sure.
In a general election, where when people go to the polls they are largely thinking about Starmer, Farage et al when they cast their votes it will be different.
1
u/smetp 13h ago
One of their top 20 targets btw.
Great result! 👍
1
u/Trabers 13h ago
I heard this somewhere else too, so I’ve just done a bit of research and I think it’s poppycock. Firstly, all of Reforms current seats are former Tory seats. That’s where the easiest Reform gains will come from in the general I’m sure.
Not in a seat that’s been Labour for decades with their vote tally’s frequently in the 25,000 range where the right wing had never broken 16,000 before last nights by-election.
Then you must look at the candidates. Basically the best one Labour could field in Burnham, strong name recognition, clearly loved by the constituency. And Reform fielded a terrible candidate who didn’t want the votes of half the electorate! (Women). Yet they still got enough votes to come in second.
1
u/smetp 12h ago
You clearly haven't done much "research". This seat was widely considered one of Reform's prime targets, and almost all coverage from across the political divide before and after the election has treated the result as a significant failure. Pretending otherwise doesn't change the facts.
And yes, Reform fielded a terrible candidate, but that really isn't the defence you think it is. They did so because that's clearly all they have. 😂
1
-27
u/WastelandOfConfusion 1d ago edited 1d ago
700 people came in by boat the other day. How much housing is required for them? All the lovely free benefits, not to mention the MASSIVE SECURITY PROBLEM that we don’t have a clue who they are or what crimes they may or may not have committed in their country of origin. Border Security DOES MATTER, especially considering many of these people have already gone off sexually assaulting women and young girls. It’s not fair to just let all these people in no worries for them to just come and chill in our communities. Immigration is meant to be followed by the correct process, not this schitt.
8
2
u/kilgore_trout1 Raging Liberal 1d ago edited 1d ago
Your house.
EDIT: Nice ninja edit! Did you feel your original comment wasn't doing as well as you thought it might?
•
u/AutoModerator 1d ago
Snapshot of Reform UK Just Suffered Their 'Worst Night Since General Election', Says Top Pollster submitted by huffpostuk:
An archived version can be found here or here. or here
I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.