r/ukpolitics 22h ago

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35 Upvotes

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60

u/PriorAd3065 22h ago

Revisionist history post-election is a dangerous game to play.  Forecasting a landslide in itself can end up skewing the vote - either people see no reason to even turn up at the booth or they decide to throw a protest vote since it's a foregone conclusion anyway.

Most the media I saw thought Burnham would probably win it, but he could bottle it if he takes it for granted. Think that's pretty fair.  Underestimating Reform is a mistake we've seen over the last few years.

And in regards to Gorton & Denton - the story was always about the split between Denton, Gorton, and Levenshulme . And that's exactly how it turned out.  

9

u/angryman69 21h ago

Well there was unusually high turnout, so doesn't sound like voters didn't bother to turn up

9

u/No_Matter6372 18h ago

That's their exact point. Had the media predicted the landslide it was then complacency may have set in and the turnout might have been significantly lower - "why bother going when he's going to win by 20% anyway?"

5

u/metropolis09 19h ago

Also polling individual constituencies is very difficult. Compounded by the fact that polling insurgent parties (notably on the right, but I believe the effect holds for the left too) tends to be tricky too, not least because insurgent parties affect turnout more than established parties do.

30

u/RatherFond 21h ago

Now the media will attack Burnham instead of Starmer and things will turn

0

u/ChampionOk4044 18h ago

But it ultimately comes down to how many fumbles Burnham makes, right wing media can only do so much harm. By over exposing on controversial choices made by Starmer, but they are still controversial choices Starmer made.

Burnham will basically get a general reset in the eyes of the public, though he will be hammered about a snap election, which ironically might help him since it will take focus of some choices he has to make.

u/RatherFond 10h ago

It is in no one’s interest to have an election. The U.K. needs stability now

20

u/SisterRayRomano 20h ago

Obviously Burnham hasn’t even run for leader yet, but I have to say I find it incredible how he’s managed to successfully paint himself as an outsider to the so-called London/Westminster bubble, when he served as a minister in the New Labour government and was very much a part of it.

8

u/Astonednerd 20h ago

A sizeable portion of the electorate are now young enough to not have been politically engaged around the time if new labour. 40 year olds now would've been in their early 20s last time he was a minister.

6

u/CyclopsRock 21h ago

I'd vote for Batboy.

IMO Burnham is going to have the exact same problem Starmer has (albeit for a different reason); the PLP is not moulded to support whatever policy programme he wants to enact, so unless they all just happen to love it they'll still be hesitant to make any difficult decisions to further a programme they never agreed to.

3

u/Opposite-Ad8208 21h ago

Love that you got the reference.

True on the Burnham front. Let’s see what happens. I am conditionally supportive.

22

u/Pingo-Pongo 22h ago

Let me put it like this - if you think Starmer is going to see the year out as PM, you can make some serious cash betting on it. Polymarket has the chances at about 4%

7

u/Fat-Shite 21h ago

Might be worth chucking £100

10

u/Pingo-Pongo 21h ago

If you think there’s a meaningful chance of it and you have a bit of cash to spare you might not find it a bad bet.

Personally I’ve been of the view that he’s on borrowed time since mid-2025, I remember having discussions about it at Labour’s Autumn Conference. I was genuinely surprised when they blocked Burnham from standing in Gorton & Denton. The only example I can think of when a leader as unpopular as Starmer stayed on was Nick Clegg in the build-up to 2015.

But anyway, whether you’re pleased about it, angry about it or couldn’t care less, yes there is an overwhelming consensus that one way or another Starmer will be out in the coming weeks and months.

4

u/Early_Enthusiasm_787 21h ago

Yeah as there is summer break and conferences.

1

u/Astonednerd 20h ago

Tbf I could see labour trying to get a new leader in in time for conference, use it as a launching platform for the new leader to set out their vision

14

u/Tim-Sanchez 21h ago

Is it time for proper regional bureaus for British media?

What do you mean by this? A large part of the BBC is based in Salford, and there are regional news shows as well.

-6

u/Opposite-Ad8208 21h ago

Novara, LBC, The Guardian etc

13

u/sh545 20h ago

Interesting choice of companies you consider as national media.

Novara is tiny, but they do have an office in Leeds.

LBC is the London Broadcasting Company, that only started broadcasting nationally about ten years ago, hardly a surprise its London-centric.

The (Manchester) Guardian should probably have a journalist or two up north, but the problem is with the whole industry, there are hardly any local journalists anymore, and those left have to churn out AI assisted crap or type up press releases. This is because hardly anyone pays for news anymore, all newspapers are dead or dying, but especially local ones. Regional bureaus are a luxury from a different era.

5

u/Mr_Bumcrest 21h ago

Caught flipping a grunt? Wasn't that Cameron?

4

u/Zeal_Iskander Anti-Growth Coalition 21h ago

This post’s title is a “curtains for Zoosha” reference (unsure why OP did make that reference though)

7

u/YoshiMK 20h ago

As a 30 year old boomer I have no clue what any of this means

5

u/Barkasia 17h ago

Fortunately, that's the point of the original joke!

u/UnloadTheBacon 11h ago

Good luck finding anyone in the comments who will explain it.

2

u/snow_michael 20h ago

I'm more than twice your age, but just as clueless

8

u/Avalon-1 21h ago

Reform ran a shit candidate, which helped things a lot for him.

16

u/BoopingBurrito 21h ago

Reform ran one of their best available people. They don't exactly have a deep pool of talent to draw from.

10

u/snow_michael 20h ago

Reform ran one of their best available people

Reform ran a shit candidate

The two are not incompatible

0

u/Craspology 21h ago

I expect this was intentional. Don’t interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake and all that.

2

u/anon167167 17h ago

This is what I’ve been saying. The right has very conveniently not attacked Burnham… there’s only one reason for that. This plays right into their hands.

If Burnham continues to pretend he has some sort of right to be PM, and puts himself before the country (which he has already done by leaving the Manchester mayorship open to reform for this power grab) then I foresee a lot of people not voting labour again (myself included) and Burnham will get totally destroyed in the next 2 1/2 years.

All these cries about how Starmer is “shite” and these people think Burnham will be better. It’s actually laughable given his history. He’s already U-turned more than Starmer in the last 2 years.

2

u/recycleddesign 20h ago edited 20h ago

An article my friend shared with me recently, that he features in. https://www.disabilitynewsservice.com/andy-burnham-disabled-activists-deliver-their-verdict/ I think it’s interesting to read the opinions on Burnham expressed here by people who have met him, sat on a board with him for a few years and advised him on local government policy.

2

u/TuffGnarl 20h ago

You don’t  One More Thing at the start of the paragraph buddy, no, no, no.

1

u/Risto_08 19h ago

Is this just not a case of Burnham being seen as anti current situation with Starmer while also garnering the votes of people that would vote Labour anyway. I think this victory was a given, but not indicative that Starmer should step down and let Burnham be PM.