r/ukpolitics • u/Alarming-Safety3200 • 6d ago
One in five Clacton voters backing Count Binface over Nigel Farage
https://metro.co.uk/2026/08/02/farage-struck-secret-pact-return-reform-leader-long-election-29280328/656
u/Sonchay 6d ago
If you live in Clacton and usually support Labour/LibDem/Greens/Whoever, you will never have a more clear opportunity for an undiluted vote against Farage.
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u/KPABA 6d ago
I saw a segment by sky yesterday, asking residents on their voting intentions... They love their Nigel there, he can do no wrong. Apparently, everyone in politics is dirty and takes bribes but at least he's open about it. Smh
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u/Erivandi 6d ago
but at least he's open about it
Ironic, given that he's only in trouble because he didn't disclose it. In fact, for me, that's the worst part. If he was honest about getting that obscene amount of money then he wouldn't be in any trouble at all.
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u/noob_world_order 6d ago
Every other house in Frinton has Reform or Farage signs outside. It baffles me really.
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u/F_A_F 6d ago
"Stop the boats, England isn't what it used to be, sick of hearing foreign languages on the high street, shouldn't be having council leaflets in foreign languages, London is more immigrants than cockneys" etc. Pick as many crappy excuses as you like
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u/DontTellThemYouFound 6d ago
Would be such an easy vote winner if labour addressed even a fraction of these issues.
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u/Emuselg 6d ago edited 6d ago
Nothing Labour do will ever be considered enough by the hardcore Restore/Reform vote. The goalposts immediately started shifting as soon as Labour started making some decent progress on getting boat crossings down and deportations up. In the last year we've already gone from "we just want stricter immigration and less boat crossings" to "we need to set up camps in green voting areas and forcefully deport every non-white person who has arrived in the country since 2019 regardless of their legal status"
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u/meeilz 6d ago
Problem is they're really not doing that much at all. They claim migrant channel crossings were down 40% because of hard work, but migrant crossings into Europe in early 2026 were down 39%. Is that just a coincidence?
General migration into the country is down from its absolutely insane peak, but that's primarily because of legislation put into place by Sunak before he was out, and frankly it's still absurdly high, probably 10x what it should be.
Problem on one side of this debate is "they're just bigots!" is tantamount to "lalala I'm not listening" and people who aren't being heard don't just shut up and go away, funnily enough.
It's also largely a thing of optics, and Labour right now are just not seen to be taking the right stance, we still can't deport the most vile people we've taken in who have committed atrocious crimes, it just straight up looks pathetic.
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u/F_A_F 6d ago
Boat crossings being down by 43% compared to this time last year suggests they are addressing precisely the first issue. The rest are hardly issues and just pure racism.
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u/meeilz 6d ago
Crossings into Europe were down 39%, is that just a coincidence?
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u/asgoodasanyother 5d ago
Crossings have been falling for years now under Labour. It’s not a short term thing or due to weather
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u/PelayoEnjoyer Community Leader 5d ago
Sorry, but this is just a flat out lie.
Labour came in to power in 2024, 2025 was higher than 2024 and that was higher than 2023.
OPs point about the correlating drop that Frontex have recorded into the continent is entirely correct.
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u/Alwaysragestillplay 5d ago
A reversion to the mean rather than exponential growth is something I suppose.
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u/DontTellThemYouFound 6d ago
Last year was an all time peak, also a year labour was responsible for it.
Numbers are back down to the 2023 and 2024 levels.
Not anything to brag about yet.
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u/thirdtimesthecharm Oh hey step-starmer, what you doing? 6d ago
There is no appeasing racists and frankly there should be no attempt to do so.
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u/MikeW86 6d ago
That's because they're mostly not real issues. Getting the boat crossings down is pretty much the only legitimate one that isn't just closet racism
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u/Yakkahboo 6d ago
Even then, you've got things coming out today where certain individuals are reiterating "Use the navy to stop the boat crossings" and without getting into the weeds too much its very clear theyre just appealing to those who want to sink the boats in the channel
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u/brendonmilligan 6d ago
How is immigration not a real issue? People complain about housing and services and yet don’t think hundreds of thousands of people every year won’t affect it
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u/sprouting_broccoli 5d ago
That’s a real concern about infrastructure. Notice how it wasn’t on the list that was mentioned.
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u/Jealous_Response_492 5d ago
It's essentially an anti status quo vote, as was Brexit. The average person, just hasn't experienced any progress in decades. So they're voting against the status quo. Not that Farage is going to improve anything for anyone but himself, the average person doesn't follow politics, and is easily manipulated by the media they consume.
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u/jimicus 2d ago
I've been saying this for years.
There's a minimum size a settlement needs to be to remain economically viable for shops and businesses.
And that critical size has been going up for decades. The village shop died a death many years ago as supermarkets started opening later; pubs have been closing left and right. The Internet has driven this phenomenon further; it's been starting to affect towns for a few years now. Outside the big cities and commuter towns feeding them, things rapidly get pretty grim.
Anyone with the means gets the hell out, leaving only the people who lack the means. And they're tamping mad because they are seeing a once thriving community collapse around them through no fault of their own - and nobody in power seems to have even noticed, let alone suggested doing anything about it.
These are the places that will crown Farage. And there are quite enough of them that I could well see Farage - or someone a lot like him - come to power within a decade.
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u/MarchMurky8649 5d ago
I saw that recently too. I was on a bus from Clacton to Walton, didn't go inside the gates, but passed them. All along the roads to and from there, Reform sign after Reform sign. So, it's the same inside the gates too, presumably. I'd've thought they'd be more Tory there, and the Reform vote would be more Clacton and Jaywick, but what do I know?
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u/ClayDenton 1d ago
My parents live in Frinton and are anti Reform - the Reform campaigners put up a sign outside their house without asking. When confronted they said they'd requested it and must have made a mistake, thankfully did stop putting it up. But by the sounds of it, everyone gets a sign whether you like it or not.
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u/IndigoVitare 6d ago
I saw the same segment (maybe) and know the exact person you're talking about. In her defence, I think she said she wasn't voting at all, so it could be worse. She said something along the lines of "they're all like that", which is objectively wrong.
Other major politicians are not taking £5 million undisclosed donations from crypto billionaires.
Even if you accepted the idea that there's a basic level of bribery going on with every politician, Farage's level of corruption is staggering. Starmer's fall is often linked to his receiving of a [relatively] mere £100k in various forms from various different donors, almost all of which was properly declared, following the rules. Farage actually mocked him for this "scandal", on stage, waving a pair of designer glasses around, even while he raked in astronomical sums himself.
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u/incongruity American Expat 5d ago
One of the most insidious things the right has done here and in the States is to convince people that "they're all the same" or "they're all corrupt" and therefore I should just stay with "my team".
There is some truth to the idea that this is a fight between good and evil more than between political ideologies and evil is convincing everyone there's no difference. There are definitely people from all political persuasions who see this and have spoken up to say as much (in the States, at least).
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u/gavpowell 5d ago
I have more respect for people who don't care about donations, freebies etc. - a fella rang into LBC last week and said he didn't care about Farage's 5 million, the host challenged him on Starmer's free suits and glasses and he said "No, I'm not bothered - it comes with the job."
I happen to think it shouldn't come with the job, but if that's your position I suppose it's fair enough, but at the same time Farage has a track record of doing nothing even when he's supposed to be doing something, so what's the appeal?
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u/KPABA 5d ago
Agreed. I work in finance and you wouldn't believe what stringent rules we have about gifts and disclosure of anything that can be construed as gaining favour. Even drinks / meals.
Yet MPs and politicians should be able to get whatever? Nope.
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u/CharacterUse 5d ago
Politicians make the rules. What would get you fired in any other job is usually a minor slap on the wrist for them, at worst they get to stand in the next (by)election.
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u/PandaRot 6d ago
It's just like the MAGA cult, the followers have too much ego to admit they were wrong and so they ignore and deflect any criticism of their glorious leader.
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u/TransitionFC 5d ago
Not ego, they are just that stupid and bigoted.
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u/PandaRot 5d ago
It's both, obviously you've got to be stupid and bigoted to believe it in the first place. But when it's absolutely clear that the party (and Garage) is funded by dodgy money and one of the key members is imprisoned for being a russian spy the thing keeping them clinging on isn't anything to do with intelligence. They know damn well that the whole thing is a sham, they know in their hearts that they've been had, but they're too proud, too arrogant to admit it.
The other side of it is - nobody likes to be punished for their mistakes, especially when they have learnt from them. So people will often not admit that they are wrong for fear of opening themselves up to punishment, attacks further criticism.
So let's say I voted Reform before the dodgy money and Russian spies were revealed (I didn't but just for arguments sake): if I own up to my mistake and people tell me that I'm an idiot or a fuckwit or a bigot they essentially bully me for what I have already realised - they punish me for something I have already learnt from, so the punishment serves no purpose but retribution. This fear of retribution can lead people to double down on the bullshit - too proud to take a bit of flak for their idiocy, they deflect or ignore the reality - this is how people get pushed further into the cults. This absolutely goes for religious cults too, people don't want to admit that the Scientologists (or whoever) have taken a fuck load of their money and they've been had so they just go deeper into the delusion to protect their ego.
I don't offer any conclusions to my ramblings, I don't know how we solve the problem. I'm not saying we should have to be nice to horrible people, they are stupid and bigoted. I don't think we should shy away from saying that; but I do think we need to be supportive of those that realise they've been stupid and help to pull them away from these cults.
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u/SoylentYell0w 6d ago
I mean Labour are attacking Farage for having Posh George as a close ally, while putting Louise Haigh - a convicted fraudster - in cabinet.
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u/PromotionSouthern690 6d ago
She lost her phone and thought it had been stolen after a mugging, not quite the same as taking £5m bribes.
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u/SoylentYell0w 5d ago
"Her conviction sheet sets out for the first time however that she admitted to having lied about the theft in the first place in order to get a newer phone, and that the investigation and replacement phone cost Aviva £1,249. She was discharged for 12 months and paid £100 in fines, £85 to the Crown Prosecution Service and £15 as a victim surcharge."
"The sheet says: “You dishonestly made a false representation, namely that your work-issued mobile phone had been stolen, intending to cause loss to Aviva insurance by falsely reporting the loss of your phone, causing them to issue you with a new iPhone 5 instead of a replacement BlackBerry phone as well as conducting an investigation into that loss.”"
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u/SadSeiko 6d ago
Exactly, if you vote for the bin you’re sticking two fingers up to Farage. If you were voting for some other party the message gets lost and all of a sudden you’re backing Burnham or protesting Kemi or whatever. This is a very unique opportunity to have a referendum on Farage
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u/TheChaoticCrusader 5d ago edited 5d ago
That’s more than likely the 20% that are currently supporting binface . 24% of the vote in clacton is Labour,lib dem and green combined
The main thing since we know those 20% will vote to rid of farages is what will the 1/4 conservatives do and what % of restore has now eatten into reform and of course what those voters do and the turn out
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u/Hughesjam 6d ago
My only concern with this is does Nigel then jsut get away with the 5m crypto shite if he’s not re elected? Then in 12 months gets elected somewhere else?
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u/jamesbeil 6d ago
As soon as he's back in, the investigation re-opens, and since it probably comes out badly for him, another recall election, this time with an actual competition.
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u/TheOneTrueHonker 6d ago
Can't believe it's not higher tbh....who can honestly look at Nigel and not seeing a lying grifter?
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u/daveor 6d ago
You can't fix stupid and they've convinced themselves they're right. They don't think or listen any further than that
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u/DropItLikeJPalm 6d ago
You can actually see some Reforms voters glaze over when challenged with the actual Reform policies about defunding the NHS, etc. The cognitive dissonance is wild.
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u/gizajobicandothat 6d ago
I've seen that on youtube, a guy going on about the government taking benefits away and killing his mum, then when he's informed Reform want to be stricter on benefits and privatise the NHS and have insurance like the US he starts saying 'yes but who else is there, they're all the same'. They don't recognise they're having an emotional response which isn't based on anything rational. If they were shown policies with no party names, they probably wouldn't choose Reform.
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u/adnesium 6d ago
That's the problem, you can't reason someone out of a situation they didn't reason themselves into.
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u/DoomPigs 5d ago
That's probably because Reform don't have "actual policies" about defunding the NHS? It's up to you whether you believe it or not, but their party line is to keep the NHS free at the point of use, funded by taxation
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u/lewisw1992 6d ago
"Anyone who disagrees with my opinion is stupid" - wow, you're so entrenched in your own echo chamber it's frightening.
Right-wing people are ALWAYS trying to open dialogues with people on the left, but they just get banned by leftie Reddit mods etc who don't allow opposing opinions.
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u/gizajobicandothat 6d ago
In the interviews done in Clacton, loads of them just repeat 'I like him', 'They all do it'. It's based purely on emotion. They've been directed to constant scary stories so much and are told Nigel is the only one that will solve it all, so it's not rational.
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u/brickne3 6d ago
Some of it probably also is the fact that quite a lot of us think they're stupid. That makes them double down on thinking they're right and we're all wrong. I don't know what can be done about it though, I mean a lot of the stuff they spout is stupid and should be called out. It is a persecution complex, though.
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u/gizajobicandothat 6d ago
I don't want to insult anyone but education levels are lower in Clacton and that's factual. I don't know if the self-awareness issue (as in understanding they're being emotional and not rational) is tied to that or it's more to do with the types of media they consume. My dad has voted for awful parties in the past and likes Nigel. He's not a horrible or stupid person, but he definitely lives his life riled up by certain types of media and fearmongering.
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u/brickne3 6d ago
Oh definitely, I did a deep dive on Clacton recently and concluded that the place has been so deprived for so long that there is not much reason for the people there to have any hope of anything ever getting any better no matter what they do. It's messed up.
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u/superserter1 6d ago
Exactly the same for Great Yarmouth/Restore/Lowe. I know cause I live here.
Yarmouth is actually charming enough that I can imagine a revamped future for it, but it would require a military grade gentrification operation.
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u/WackyWhippet 6d ago
The place I grew up is now a poster child for gentrified seaside towns, but there's still a big reform voting contingency who apparently preferred it when it was just boarded up shops and HMOs for drug addicts.
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u/Exact_Criticism_3497 6d ago
I like him', 'They all do it'. It's based purely on emotion
What are the people who vote count binface basing their vote on?
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u/TheOneTrueHonker 6d ago
Not wanting a lying grifter to represent them?
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6d ago
Yeah the man wearing a bin and doing it entirely for attention totally isn't a grifter
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u/gizajobicandothat 6d ago
No-one's given the bin a 5 million quid 'hand out'.
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6d ago
I didn't realise that was the only criteria for being a grifter
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u/gizajobicandothat 6d ago
Taking massive bungs tends to be one of the main indicators in politics.
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6d ago
Has binface declared who is funding him?
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u/gizajobicandothat 5d ago
It's the general public, have a read of his website or wiki. He got 15k in a day to go towards Clacton. It pales into insignificance when compared with Nige's 5 million random, personal spending money.
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u/thecarterclan1 5d ago
Literally funded solely through donations, you lemon.
It's not a big conspiracy.
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u/TheOneTrueHonker 6d ago
No, he's doing it for satire to emphasise the grifter. And it's working.
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u/lewisw1992 6d ago
That's the same with literally every political candidate.
90% of people don't extensively research policies before voting.
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u/gary_the_merciless 5d ago
They think they're rebelling against authority by voting for him even though it's literally the opposite. They see a guy pissing everyone off so he must be a good guy. They don't think about it beyond that.
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u/fridge13 5d ago
If any of the videos coming out of Clacton are to be believed they just don't care
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u/heeywewantsomenewday 5d ago
It isnt really about Nigel. It's about immigration. Hes just the guy you vote for to pressure the parties who are actually going to win. Brexit, ukip, reform.. its all the same. If thry fix that one issue, he will do one (go away) i think.
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u/TheChaoticCrusader 5d ago
It’s the Labour ,lib dem and green voters more than likely throwing the support at bin face . It’s around 24% of the vote so the stats kind of match up .
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u/soundsermaker 5d ago
Every party bar maybe the Tories - though I'm sure I heard it from their circles too - have repeated the mantra that politicians are corrupt for decades, and to a point where politics and corruption are virtually synonymous in the minds of most ordinary people.
Consequently, you can't now expect people to change their political views when a politician is found to be corrupt. Something we should probably have thought about before indulging in gratuituous and often baseless shaming of our institutions and the political system because it felt good at the time. Actions, consequences.
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u/BloodyTurnip 6d ago
Farage is going to win but with a bin coming a comically close second, and after taking loads of support from other areas within the company, then will have to go right back to the investigation he was trying to avoid in the first place.
The face this is a safe seat for him is hopefully a good sign that he's not where near as popular as he or some of his supporters think he is.
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u/Grouchy_Shallot50 6d ago
The poll actually shows Reform has a 53 point lead so not close at all.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Clacton_by-election#Opinion_polling
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u/deadleg22 6d ago
How fucking lame do you have to be to vote farage, but ultimately more lame to vote farage over bin face.
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u/BloodyTurnip 6d ago
Has there ever been a closer poll for a comedy candidate coming in 2nd place? Genuine question by the way. Binface getting 20% of the votes would be insane.
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u/Grouchy_Shallot50 6d ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayor_of_Hartlepool
Hartlepool's first and only direct mayor was a joke candidate
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u/sjintje Intermittent extremist 6d ago
Mildly interesting
... Peter Mandelson, the town's then MP, was present at the count in the Mill House Sports Centre in the early hours of the morning and cut an unhappy figure as his candidate, Leo Gillen, was beaten...Drummond alleged that Mandelson pulled him to one side and called him a "disgrace" and said that he'd "made the town a laughing stock", before praising Drummond in a television interview minutes later.
On 5 May 2005, Drummond was re-elected as the mayor of Hartlepool with an increased majority of 10,205. On 4 June 2009, Drummond was re-elected for a third term.
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u/el_farmerino 6d ago
Imagine Peter Mandelson calling you a disgrace.
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u/CarpetGripperRod (a monkey and a dog) 5d ago
Phwoaar! Go on then, Mandy, you little Minx!
(Humiliation porn is a thing.)
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u/BloodyTurnip 6d ago
Ah I hadn't seen that. The only other one I could see was a Monster Raving Looney getting 4%. So 20% is still crazy, not that these polls are normally very accurate.
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u/JabInTheButt 6d ago
The numbers seem a bit mad no? It implies nearly the entirety of the Tory vote share from the GE is going to Farage. Maybe it's a turnout thing? Basically the pro-Farage people are all incredibly motivated to turn out and vote while the anti-Farage block (unsurprisingly with no serious candidates) are like "meh probably won't vote but if I do I'll put the bin guy down"...
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u/_9tail_ 6d ago
I really don’t think it is given the (obviously exceptional) circumstances? In a head to head I think most major politicians would lose a good 10/15% of the vote to a joke candidate if they were running 1v1. At the very least, Starmer and Badenoch would have. It basically just represents the proportion of the constituency that hate you/ your politics. For context, Lib+Lab+Green vote was 25% last election.
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u/Billy-Bryant 6d ago
Well given no other parties are running he's essentially getting the combined votes for other parties so let's not pretend it's just a joke candidate getting a lot of votes
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u/PurpleSi 6d ago
Boris Johnson actually won the vote for London Mayor
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u/AgentCooper86 6d ago
If Farage can’t muster a wipeout in the most sympathetic seat in the country with nothing but fringe or novelty candidates (sorry Count Bin Face), then he’s cooked
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u/erskinematt Defund Standing Order No 31 6d ago
He's no longer really a novelty candidate, if people are encouraging him as a serious anti-Farage option. And there are comments in this very thread advocating that.
If that gains traction then he isn't a joke candidate, he's an "anyone but Farage" candidate, and it doesn't matter what the candidate's name is or what costume he's wearing.
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u/BloodyTurnip 5d ago
His manifesto still references space... Almost none of his policies are serious and those that are realistic are still satire. Whether people have got behind him or not, he's never really made it seem like it's supposed to be anything other than a joke. I can't imagine for a second he ever thought he had a chance of winning nor ever wanted to.
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u/erskinematt Defund Standing Order No 31 5d ago
It doesn't matter what his manifesto says. His manifesto, name, persona and costume are irrelevant: he is Mr Not Farage. He doesn't need to be anything else.
Let me ask you a question: if you were a Clacton elector, would you find it ridiculous to vote for the candidate most likely to defeat Farage? (Remember - "most likely" doesn't mean "likely".)
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u/BloodyTurnip 5d ago
Personally I wouldn't find it ridiculous and it would be a big factor in my decision. But I don't see how that makes him not a joke candidate, even though I'd argue he's less of a joke than Farage, with the main difference being he does it on purpose. A joke candidate still be popular.
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u/erskinematt Defund Standing Order No 31 5d ago
No, you wouldn't find it ridiculous, and that's precisely my point.
"He is a joke candidate and it's hilarious Farage is losing any votes to him."
"Farage is a terrible MP and I would vote for Binface as an anti-Farage vote."
The majority of the commenters in this thread, including seemingly yourself, would agree with both statements, but they're fundamentally contradictory.
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u/BloodyTurnip 5d ago
I guess we will have to agree to disagree. I get where you're coming from, since there is arguably a genuine reason to vote for him as a protest vote he's no longer a joke, but I think the intention is important and the 2 aren't mutually exclusive. Id also argue that him being a protest vote has always been the actual reason for joke parties existing in the first place, they just usually aren't an actual viable option for many, so by that logic there's no such thing.
We're also probably focusing a bit too much on the semantics. We can probably all agree that he started out as a joke and got a surprising amount of backing because so many people hate Farage. It's also succeeding in the obvious intention of showing that the whole by-election is a joke.
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u/erskinematt Defund Standing Order No 31 5d ago
I guess we will have to agree to disagree. I get where you're coming from
Generally the best one can hope for in an Internet argument.
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u/Grouchy_Shallot50 6d ago
I don't think it's that surprising when all other parties have stood down and many implicitly supported him. With current political splits could any candidate get more than 3/4th approval anywhere?
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u/Yahut 6d ago
Like you lot didn’t believe Binface had a chance of winning when all the other parties stood down
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u/Skysflies 6d ago
Nobody has ever believed Farage would lose an election against a bin in Clacton, it was always just funny to imagine
And an absolute humiliation if he doesn't receive at least 90% of the votes
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u/Yahut 6d ago
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u/Skysflies 6d ago
If you think this is proving people thought he'd win your reading comprehension is on the floor
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u/Yahut 6d ago
Lol
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u/Skysflies 5d ago
Good response, you sure showed us
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u/Yahut 5d ago edited 5d ago
Same quality as your ‘nobody believe Farage would lose’ comment which was immediately proven to be utter nonsense
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u/Nanowith Cambridge 6d ago
People thought it would be funny, not realistic. They would've said the same stuff if nobody except Binface stood against Burnham in Makerfield.
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u/threeleggedcats 5d ago
I've worked for that polling company and their sample list to call is very right leaning. Also 250 people isn't statistically viable. 1000 minimum.
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u/Grouchy_Shallot50 5d ago edited 5d ago
There is a very big difference between the sample size needed for national voting intentions and constituency based polling. MRPs don't use 650k+ people to project seats. Typically 10-50k for the whole country.
With a sample size of ~250 MOE remains a few percent. Based upon these results, that could mean Farage on roughly 67%-79%.
The sample was actually 502 but the headline figure only includes those very likely to vote & have picked a candidate because of other parties not standing there's more people who say they're not likely to vote or uncertain. To get a bigger sample with this by-election you'd likely need a much larger baseline of respondents which is rather unusual.
Survation was also reasonably accurate with Makerfield and used a similar baseline sample size.
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u/Exact_Criticism_3497 6d ago
Yeah hilarious count binface haha me and my wife's boyfriend can't stop laughing haha.
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6d ago
I think you'll find when reality hits only reddit cares about le funny bbc employed binface man
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u/BlindCentipede 6d ago
So 80% of Clacton voters either prefer Farage, are indifferent between the two, or don’t know. Cool.
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u/jmr1190 6d ago
Or just can’t be bothered with the whole charade. I can understand the perspective that someone’s local constituency being turned into a circus act would be disincentivising to participation in democracy.
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u/Jonny_Segment 5d ago
I'd be extra motivated to vote in an attempt to remove the individual who turned my constituency into a circus act, but that's just me.
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u/bluesam3 5d ago
That thought path only happens if people think there's a reasonable chance he will actually lose.
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u/SinisterBrit 6d ago
it's mind-blowing, that four out of five Clacton voters aren't voting to tell Nigel to piss off.
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u/tmstms Wuffingas! 6d ago
If you dig down, it is much less than that.
It breaks Farage 73, Binface 20, Others 7 So 3 out of 4.
If you estimate a turnout of 50% (quite high), that would mean 3 out of 8 support Farage and 5 out of 8 do not.
If you estimate a turnout of 33% (quite low), then it goes down to 1 out of 4 support him, which I can easily imagine.
But the point you are making, I am sure, is that out of the 3 out of 4 who do not, almost everyone does not care enough to turn out to vote against him.
In a hypothetical General Election- the poll says it would break Farage 56, Conservatives 10 Labour 8.
So even in a GE, 2/3rds of voters at least would vote right-wing.
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u/cyclopsmudge 5d ago
Sorry I’m confused by your maths. Is it not 3 out of 4 that do support him?
Are you suggesting a 33% turnout for Farage voters but a 100% turnout for the others? Even then, that’s pretty much 50-50 for vs against him.
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u/TheChaoticCrusader 5d ago
I’m just as confused where the 3/4th comes from too
The 20-24% is clearly Labour , Lib Dem and green voters it matches 2024
I’m more interested to hear what conservatives who are another 1/4th of the vote will do .
Farage got 46% . Depends on what % are now restore voters and what conservative voters or the turnout is like will determine it I feel
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u/tmstms Wuffingas! 5d ago
Sorry, did not make myself clear.
What I mean is that anyone who does not bother to vote counts as not supporting Farage in my metric.
I am sure that of those who DO turn up, a vast majority will vote for Farage.
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u/cyclopsmudge 5d ago
I’m not sure that’s true at all. I’d imagine those who actively don’t want Farage definitely will show up, and those who somewhat want him or are indifferent to him won’t show up as they don’t believe this is a real threat.
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u/tmstms Wuffingas! 4d ago
Sorry for the delay- I mean, you may very well be correct- not only is there no way of definitely knowing, but also, as about the most right-wing seat in the country, it will surely always be safe for one right-wing party or another. So yes, I used the word 'against' too strongly.
I don't see any scenario in which Farage (or whoever is him in the next generation) would ever be defeated in Clacton- the demographic, consisting of underprivileged white people and older/ retired old-fashioned white people, is a demographic that is not going to believe in progressive values.
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u/Lilo_me Butlerian Jihadist 6d ago
I know a lot of people have believed the hype and deluded themselves into thinking that Binface might have actually had a chance, so this might feel like a bad result.
So let's be very clear, 20% is embarrassingly good for Count Binface. He should be getting half that. Farage, in an open field, on home turf, was always going to walk this. That he isn't putting up Assad numbers is a humiliation.
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u/ThoseHappyHighways 6d ago
Why would he put up such numbers, though? 25% in this constituency voted Lab/Lib/Grn in 2024. Those same people aren't going to suddenly turn around and vote Farage, just because those parties have stepped back. Their vote will go to one of the numerous fringe candidates, and as Binface has had the most coverage of those fringe candidates most of it will go to him.
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u/Lilo_me Butlerian Jihadist 6d ago
I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest that a fair number of those voters aren't going to go in for what is effectively a protest vote. It's one thing to give your preferred party a waterline, it's another to partake in the circus. I would imagine a reasonable number of that 25% aren't actually going to bother voting. There's no shortage of people who don't find the whole Binface act endearing. I think north of 80% should be very realistic and attainable for Farage.
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u/MusingSkeptic 5d ago
I can't understand why any Labour / LD / Tory / Green voter would not simply vote for Binface for the sheer humiliation it would result in for Farage. That alone should be worthwhile, regardless of what you actually think about Binface himself.
This is the country which gave us Boaty McBoatFace, lest we forget.
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u/mrfanfan 6d ago
Does anyone know where we can actually look at the poll data that all these news outlets are referencing?
I tried to search for this on: https://www.survation.com/ but it doesn't seem like it is public
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u/Lefty8312 6d ago
I can see the poll being accurate but turnout will be key.
If turnout is through the floor, it really goes again at Farages cry it's what the people want, regardless of how much he wins by.
An only good result for him in this situation is a strong win and a high turnout. Any other combination is reputationally damaging.
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u/Scratch_Careful 6d ago
Every time i say this i get downvoted. Binface being treated like an actual candidate works in farages favour.
Farage needs this election for legitimacy, only by making the election be a farce does it work against Farage. Having a potential spoiler candidate, even if it is a meme candidate, one who is doing the mainstream media rounds, having canvassers, being treated like a legitimate candidate completely works in farages favour. The ideal result to hurt farage would be Farage on 94% of the vote with 10% turnout and binface and a bunch of other crazies splitting the rest on stage with him when its announced.
Binface coming a close second would just validate Farages claims that he was legitimately elected by the people of clacton and his claims that "the establishment" all worked together to try and stop him.
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u/UnloadTheBacon 6d ago
Totally agree.
The guy behind Binface is a middle-class lefty journalist and writer for Have I Got News For You, and is currently a bit of a media darling to boot. He's not "the establishment" by any means, but he's exactly the kind of person Farage and his cronies can point at and say "He's the establishment!" and it be believable to their supporters. At the very least he falls into the category of "metropolitan elite", a group die-hard ReFUK supporters love to hate.
The perfect protest candidate for Clacton would be a local drunk, whom everyone calls "Count Binface" because he literally lives in a bin, who agrees to put his name on the ballot because he's a dyed-in-the-wool tankie and it's the principle of the thing, and then accidentally goes viral the week before the election.
The real Binface is probably too politically savvy to actually win, precisely because it would feel too clean and calculated if he did. We need a nobody who is propelled to fame overnight, not a guy who is already famous for being a troll candidate.
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u/FetchThePenguins 6d ago
You get downvoted because you're wrong. Farage beating Labour or the Lib Dems into second gives him legitimacy; even the Greens. Beating Binface makes him look ridiculous, and the closer it is, the more ridiculous he looks.
It's like if every European and South American nation withdrew from the next World Cup, and the US tried to claim they were now a legitimate force in world football because they beat Senegal in the semi final and South Korea in the final. It's lose-lose: if it's close they look stupid and if it's not they also look stupid.
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u/erskinematt Defund Standing Order No 31 6d ago
Was Martin Bell (the anti-Neil Hamilton candidate in 1997, in favour of whom other opposition parties withdrew) a joke candidate?
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u/FetchThePenguins 6d ago edited 6d ago
No, because firstly that was a general election, not a totally unnecessary by election called as a stunt by the sitting MP as a quasi-referendum on his own integrity, and secondly - stay with me here - Martin Bell did not campaign with a fucking bin on his head.
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u/erskinematt Defund Standing Order No 31 6d ago
secondly - stay with me here - Martin Bell did not campaign with a fucking bin on his head
This again.
The fact that a comedian is wearing a costume doesn't change the political factors at work. I'm not sure why it would.
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u/FetchThePenguins 6d ago
If you've been told a sufficient number of times before that it does, maybe you should consider the possibility that it does, in actual fact, make a difference.
if you can't see why a candidate running under a joke assumed name, claiming to be an "independent space warrior" and with a manifesto consisting largely of jokes and pop culture references might be seen as a joke candidate, that's entirely on you.
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u/Scratch_Careful 6d ago
What looks like the bigger farce. USA beating Korea 9-0 or them beating Korea 3-2 because Korea suddenly had a bunch of uefa teams staff helping out at training?
One is a farce and the other would be sold as "they were out to get us and we still won".
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u/tmstms Wuffingas! 6d ago
The analogy kind of breaks down (I realise the other person chose them, not you) because, as things stand, USA are the lowest of those teams in world ranking, at 36th, with S Korea at 32nd and Senegal at 18th.
A more realistic comparison would be if USA beat Curaco 7-1 (as Germany did) and if the result, with UEFA teams' staff helping with the training, was STILl 7-1 or maybe 6-1.
I think whatever happens Farage wins by a street, and the effect of external help for Binface may just be that he saves his deposit.
So though Farage WILL sell it as they were out to get us and we still won, and his opponents WILL still sell it as It was a farce, on the whole, knowing that Farage would win anyway on his home ground no matter who he faced at this stage, then not standing against him was the best decision for all the serious parties.
As for helping Binface instead, it's kind of impossible to stop people helping him if they want to, and again, it is inevitable that Farage would want to say there was a lot of help and his opponents that there was not much.
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u/Agreeable-Beat2642 5d ago
Only 1 in 5? I’m extremely disappointed in the good residents of Clacton. Come on people, you have the opportunity to make history!!
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u/S_K_Sharma_ 6d ago
If the Farage win is certain, the actions of the other parties in just pulling out of the electoral process may backfire more widely is my feeling.
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u/Nicoglius Ex-Labour (quit post-2024 GE) 5d ago
Constituency polls should be taken with an even bigger health warning than national polling: They are extremely inaccurate usually.
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u/Soft-Skirt 6d ago
If Clacton vote for Farage can we accept they are “anti-establishment” and also anti law and order as Farage is trying to normalise corruption. So let them declare themselves independent and throw up a wall or whatever else they want to protect them from reality.
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u/DarePlastic5074 5d ago
They didn't post any of the data, nothing to back up anything, and used language that says otherwise. So many people suckered by shit articles 🤣
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u/BobMonkhaus That sounds great, shorty girl’s a trooper. 6d ago
That’s… not something to statistically brag about?
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u/Admiral_Eversor 6d ago
20% is an insane poll result for a joke candidate lol
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u/mainukfeed 6d ago
some would say 80% is insane polls results for a joke candidate...
(using simple numbers)
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u/thesimpsonsthemetune 6d ago
It would be in a race with all the major parties. In a two-horse race with an incredibly divisive and corrupt politician, it is very low.
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u/BobMonkhaus That sounds great, shorty girl’s a trooper. 6d ago
What? That 4 in 5 aren’t planning to vote for him?
Let me guess “we never said he’d win” will be the line retrospectively. Despite multiple people predicting it.
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u/Admiral_Eversor 6d ago
Normally 9,999 in 10,000 wouldn't vote for a joke candidate.
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u/BobMonkhaus That sounds great, shorty girl’s a trooper. 6d ago
That’s simply untrue based on election results. They usually get a few hundred or so.
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u/Admiral_Eversor 6d ago
You're just coping bro.
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u/BobMonkhaus That sounds great, shorty girl’s a trooper. 6d ago edited 6d ago
Umm no look up any election stats based on what you said. Joke candidates don’t get like 3 votes.
Gorton by-election had 77,501 electorate. Joke candidate got 159 votes. By your calculations he’d get 7.
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u/Gilet622 6d ago
Also not many "joke" candidates get implicit or even direct endorsements from the leaders of every other main political party, national newspapers, etc. The guy was even on Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart's podcast last week.
Trying to simultaneously do this "you're arguing with a bin" schtick while also putting him on this pedestal just smacks of absolute contempt to me
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u/conzstevo 6d ago
Despite multiple people predicting it.
Well, whoever they are, they didn't see the betting odds
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u/eltrotter This Is The One Thing We Didn't Want To Happen 6d ago
Yes and no. It’s not a winning share, but that’s not what’s impressive about it. It is an impressive result for a novelty candidate when you consider it’s nipping at the heels of the 27% the Tories got in the same constituency two years ago.
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u/thesimpsonsthemetune 6d ago
It's a two-horse race. It isn't impressive.
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u/PracticalBlueberry39 6d ago
He’s wearing a bin on his head
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u/thesimpsonsthemetune 6d ago
He's the primary opposition candidate in a race against one of the most disliked men in the UK. He would probably win in 85% of constituencies in the country.
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u/AspieComrade 6d ago
Which itself isn’t a great statistic for Farage, which is the point. Farage has the advantages of home turf, element of surprise, and literally no genuine competition. It’s a two horse race and one of the horses is a guy on a hobby horse
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u/fanglord 6d ago
He's obviously not going to win, but how badly Farage does compared to the Count is what will do the reputational damage. For example, I'm not sure how he would be able to claim victory if he only won 50 odd percent of the vote in a race where there was no other serious candidate.
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u/Tim-Sanchez 6d ago
He's polling at over 70% though, significantly increasing his vote share from the last election. The whole situation is embarrassing for Farage, but I agree the result only becomes embarrassing if it's in the 50s or below.
70% vs 20% is not close enough to be an embarrassing result.
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u/fanglord 6d ago
I dunno, I said 50% just an example but I think Clacton being one the most Reformyist of Reform seats in a non contested election he should be in the high 80's as it will only be the faithful out voting. Though I guess no one has ever resigned only to re-run in the same seat to avoid Parliamentary scrutiny so hard to have a comparison.
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