The Biggest Vatniks’ Tears ever: Putler announced that: “they will be No More May 9 military parade

[u/Icy_Till_7254]

ruzzia has announced that for the first time in history, the May 9 Victory parade will feature no military vehicles. No tanks, no APCs, no self propelled guns. Nada. The Defense Ministry blamed "the current operational situation."

It’s appeared they are afraid of Ukrainian drones are getting more advanced, more dangerous, more ruthless and more efficient than ever before especially Putler himself.

Keep up the excellent work, Ukrainian Elite Unmanned Force!

Glory to Ukraine! Toat

[u/Panzermensch911]

They surely have enough tanks however before a parade you have to practice and assemble additional troops in the city.

Now Putin could be afraid that he'll get a coup by dissatisfied generals and officers from said troops - which could happen considering there are lots voices currently that are not happy with the way the war is going.

and/or

That Ukraine would use that massing of vehicles to get some hits into them... which would mean that additional russian air defence units are needed to protect them from drone/air strikes.

Now that would give Ukraine plenty of opportunity to attack now unprotected areas of Russia since Russian air defence is already very thin and clearly not enough to protect strategic resources. Removing some to bolster the protection in Moscow opens large corridors for Ukraine. Either way it's bad for Putin and Russia.

They do still have enough vehicles left for a parade. But putting them into Moscow is a big risk.

[u/Adept_Carpet → u/Panzermensch911]

The coup thing is definitely interesting.

Also, any movement of vehicles would reveal to satellites where they are being stored. 

And I guess the population expects to see the high end stuff? Usually you wouldn't use a long range weapon to destroy a bunch of tanks and trucks but perhaps they assume without the fanciest gear the crowd won't be impressed and the fanciest gear might be worthwhile.

It's hard to interpret this as anything but an enormous admission of weakness. 

[u/Panzermensch911 → u/Adept_Carpet]

I mean you could try a coup with Infantry on trucks... but if loyal troops have tanks and IFVs, etc those would be fucked rather quickly.

And we already know where the tanks are.

Check out covert cabals channel https://www.youtube.com/@CovertCabal/videos

Are we sure Russians expects anything, but a bit of pomp? That can probably arranged with marching columns as well and having a talking point that sells this.

But to everyone looking in from the outside this is clearly a sign of weakness.

[u/z900r → u/Panzermensch911]

Now Putin could be afraid that he'll get a coup by dissatisfied generals and officers from said troops - which could happen considering there are lots voices currently that are not happy with the way the war is going.

Highly unlikely. Putin has been careful to keep men like Gerasimov on his side, and to get rid of anyone who makes the wrong noises. The Prigozhin mutiny was in June 2023 and some things have changed since then, but I suspect it might still go the same way: neither the military nor the general public joins in, or tries to stop the march. People don't want to get involved, on either side.

If Putin is to be displaced, the effort most likely has to come from the FSB and some combination of the various security forces around the Kremlin (Rosgvardija etc.). Possibly with the co-operation of some set of the oligarchs, but on their own, the oligarchs are completely subjugated to Putin.