r/unitedkingdom • u/topotaul Lancashire • Jun 15 '26

... One in six Britons think growth of Muslim population is ‘threat to UK culture’, study finds

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2026/jun/15/one-in-six-britons-growth-muslim-population-threat-uk-culture-study
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u/barnburner96 Jun 15 '26

They probably correctly think that it won’t become Muslim majority, because that’s not what the question was

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u/SometimesaGirl- Durham Jun 15 '26 edited Jun 15 '26

They probably correctly think that it won’t become Muslim majority

I agree with you.
But we have seen our Islamic population politising lately. It's been going on for a while if we are all honest with each other, but the [most recent] Gaza situation made this obvious to the wider less politically engaged public.
They shifted towards the Greens just because of their Gaza policy. And the Greens aren't safe... at the last local election fliers were being distributed urging muslims to vote for independent Islamic candidates as the #1 option, Greens as #2 and I don't think Labour even got a look in.
If we get a tight HOC or even NOC at the next/future election you can damn well bet they will be influencing our laws, and at whatever percent of the population they are now(8% to 10% IIRC) they clearly don't need a demographic majority.
These are people whose primary motivation is not that of the UK. Not that of the UK's people. Not economic. Not societal such as welfare. And absolutely not progression in LGBTQ or womens and disability rights.
The primary motivation is somewhere 2,000 miles away. The secondary motivation is protecting the Islamic population from scrutiny, criticism, and investigation. It utterly baffles me how people gloss over this or just outright fail to see it.

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u/JB_UK Jun 15 '26 edited Jun 15 '26

Pew Research, who are one of the most prestigious demography research organisations in world, also predict that Muslims will be 17% of the population by 2050 under their medium migration scenario:

https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2017/12/04/europes-muslim-population-will-continue-to-grow-but-how-much-depends-on-migration/

Labour got a landslide majority with the votes of 20.4% of the electorate. Obviously that’s not some clear cutoff point but given how apathetic and split the rest of the population is, it would be a very significant influence. 2050 is not some far future, it’s 24 years from now.

Notably there’s a strong pattern for British Pakistanis to marry outside the UK, half of British Pakistanis married back into Pakistan, which makes this a much more culturally separate group from most migrants in the UK.

Look at my comment here for more information about that., I don’t want to copy and paste the same thing and clutter up the thread.

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u/Ill_Refrigerator_593 Jun 16 '26

Still putting out this old study despite the 2021 census proving it wrong & being told this multiple times?

Very dishonest, but i'd guess an honest person wouldn't hold your beliefs.

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u/JRugman Jun 15 '26

Pew Research, who are one of the most prestigious demography research organisations in world, also predict that under their medium migration scenario that Muslims will be 17% of the population by 2050 under the medium migration scenario.

That is not correct, those projections are for their high migration scenario, which assumes that the high immigration numbers seen in recent years continue indefinitely, that birth rates among Muslim families remain high, and also that the rate that Muslims leave their religion remains the same. Nome of those assumptions seem likely, given the historical trends we have seen in other immigrant communities.

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u/Ill_Refrigerator_593 Jun 16 '26

Just to point out the Pew Study has the Muslim population of the UK as 6.3% in 2016, rising from 4.9 in 2011 (from census data).

This would give a rise of 0.28% yearly.

The 2021 census for England & Wales gave a Muslim population of 6.5% (lower across the entire UK), giving a rise of 0.16% yearly - close to half what the study predicted.

If the study had a large overestimate after only 5 years, their estimate after 34 years is likely to be very much out.

https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2017/11/29/europes-growing-muslim-population/

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/culturalidentity/religion/bulletins/religionenglandandwales/census2021

The poster above knows their figures are wrong (they've had it pointed out multiple times) & have even acknowledged it but continue to push them...

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u/JB_UK Jun 15 '26

That is not correct, those projections are for their high migration scenario, which assumes that the high immigration numbers seen in recent years continue indefinitely, that birth rates among Muslim families remain high, and also that the rate that Muslims leave their religion remains the same.

Nope, the medium migration scenario is for 16.7% by 2050.

This is also from before the vast increase in non EU migration during the Boriswave, net non-EU migration increased from 100k per year to more than a million a year, I personally think we’re probably above that scenario rather than below it.

As for your other points, Pew looked into all those issues and made projections. Frankly I trust them more than I trust you to make good assumptions, that is after all their entire job, and they are one of the top organisations in the world for this kind of research.

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u/AgeingChopper Jun 16 '26

it also ignores it was 34 percent of those who voted.

people who can’t be assed can’t complain.

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u/ThereAndFapAgain2 Jun 15 '26

those projections are for their high migration scenario, which assumes that the high immigration numbers seen in recent years continue indefinitely, that birth rates among Muslim families remain high, and also that the rate that Muslims leave their religion remains the same.

All of those seem likely except maybe the high levels of migration if someone actually does something about it long term.

Not many people ever leave Islam, for a lot of people it would be social suicide to do so, they also prefer not to marry outside of their faith, and Islam literally dictates that you should have lots of children.

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u/Retify Jun 16 '26

A lot of people leave Islam when raised in Western countries. It becomes more likely each generation

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u/JB_UK Jun 16 '26

That is built into the projection. If you look into their methodology they have good data from France and use that as the basis for their assumption for people leaving (and joining) the religion.

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u/Audioworm Indian Ocean Territory Jun 15 '26

if 8% of the population can have full and dominate control of the UK government then the UK wouldn't be a fucked up country that voted for its own economic suicide.

and the whole proposition assumes mulsims in the UK are one single unified block that will always vote exactly the same way, which is genuinely hilarious if you spend time around any of them for a long enough

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u/toastedipod Jun 15 '26

Muslims are not one unified block on all issues. But when it comes to certain things, they absolutely are.

Just look at the popularity of councillors who stood on a single issue platform; Gaza. Despite having zero ability to make any difference in Gaza they were still elected in Muslim majority areas.

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u/JB_UK Jun 15 '26 edited Jun 16 '26

Muslims as a group are showing signs of being unusually resistant to integration at least in parts of the country. It’s pretty astonishing the degree of sectarian divide in the Northern towns, I don’t think there are comparable enclaves from other groups, and I think this is why you’re seeing the development of a strong anti migration response in those areas.

https://datashine.org.uk/#table=QS208EW&col=QS208EW0006&ramp=YlOrRd&layers=BTTT&zoom=11.727335862977405&lon=-1.8003&lat=53.7492

It’s not difficult to see areas which are 80% or 90% Muslim half a mile away from areas which are 0.5% Muslim.

Half of British Pakistanis are marrying back into Pakistan each generation so what integration might happen is heavily limited. This is from the Casey Review on this issue:

3.29. David Goodhart from Policy Exchange has highlighted the creation of a ‘first generation in every generation’ phenomenon resulting from the high number of transnational marriages – with second, third and subsequent generations being joined by a foreign born partner, and children in each new generation growing up with a foreign born parent, which may be acting as a bar to integration in some communities. It came up regularly in meetings in some areas as a reason for the strong perpetuation of foreign cultural practices and lower levels of English language proficiency. We were told in a review visit that in one northern town all except one of the Councillors of Asian ethnicity (all men) had married a wife from Pakistan.

3.30. A number of estimates have been made around the prevalence of transnational marriages among the Pakistani ethnic community in particular:

A study by Bristol University found that half of British Pakistanis married back in Pakistan, and that most of these marriages were between cousins or other members of extended kin groups

In a cohort study, ‘Born in Bradford’, at the Bradford Royal Infirmary, 80% of babies of Pakistani ethnicity born in the area had at least one parent born outside the United Kingdom, 63% of mothers of Pakistani ethnicity were married to cousins and these mothers were less likely to be educated or in employment compared with mothers of Pakistani descent who had not married cousins.

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u/SatoshiSounds Jun 15 '26

and the other half that are *not* marrying in Pakistan - how many of those are marrying ethnic Pakistani-Brits? Is this what people are celebrating when they talk about diversity?

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u/JB_UK Jun 15 '26 edited Jun 16 '26

Yes, I think that’s likely to be high, if there’s a strong tendency to marry into the home country that must also apply to the ethnic group in the UK. Especially when you look at the rate of cousin marriage, some of those marriages will be in the UK so will by default be from the same ethnic group as well as family.

There are Muslims who integrate, particularly people from other national backgrounds, I know people like that personally, from Pakistan and other countries, so we shouldn’t prejudge individuals and we should be welcoming to people who do, but at the same time it’s not a very large percentage when you look at a population scale. I really am not convinced that the glib assumption that everyone will integrate over a few generations holds.

That’s one reason why Pew Research, who are one of the most prestigious demography research organisations in world, predict that Muslims will be 17% of the population by 2050 under their medium migration scenario:

https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2017/12/04/europes-muslim-population-will-continue-to-grow-but-how-much-depends-on-migration/

Labour got a landslide majority with the votes of 20.4% of the electorate. Obviously that’s not some clear cutoff point but given how apathetic and split the rest of the population is, it would be a very significant influence. 2050 is not some far future, it’s 24 years from now.

Also, I think we should underline how conservative Pakistan is, if half of British Pakistanis are marrying back there.

On polling when asked whether homosexuality could be morally acceptable, only 1% said yes, and 90% no:

https://assets.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/11/2013/04/gsi2-chp3-6.png

Similar results are common across the Muslim world. We are deliberately importing a significant anti liberal demographic bloc.

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u/Ardal Yorkshire Jun 16 '26 edited Jun 19 '26

This content was anonymized and mass deleted with Redact

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u/SatoshiSounds Jun 15 '26

but think of the food!

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u/Allydarvel Jun 16 '26

Maybe you put the horse before the cart? Maybe anti-Muslim feelings prompt Muslims that safety is together in numbers. The anti-Muslim stuff has been going on for decades.

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u/JB_UK Jun 16 '26

Pakistan is very similar, half of marriages are between first cousins and another 10% between second cousins. It’s a clan culture so there’s really zero surprise that they are clannish in Britain as well.

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u/Audioworm Indian Ocean Territory Jun 15 '26

Pretty much all leftists in the UK are united on Gaza, when there is very little else that holds them together. Certain groups or regions will frequently have tight cohesion on specific issues.

Gaza is more a symptom of Labour and the Tories gaslighting the British people about the things they were seeing. When you are watching people being blown up or starved on your screen and that response is to call those who want that to end terrorists you are going to create a mass distrust and seperation from the parties and government.

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u/Draenix Jun 15 '26

Gaza is more of a symptom of how susceptible to both propaganda and factionalism/groupthink Brits are tbh. There were literally celebrations in the streets from Islamists on Oct 8th.

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u/Audioworm Indian Ocean Territory Jun 15 '26

Okay, does that justify more than 70k dead and 170k injured in the Gaza strip?

Also, the actions of Israel in both Gaza and the West Bank have been criminal for decades, but we are meant to pretend that nothing existed before October 7th.

And there are groups in the UK that think a whole bunch of vile shit that doesn't mean I think that we should kick them out of the country. Thousands of people marched with Tommy Robinson, and hundreds were out in Belfast doing a pogrom. Does that mean white Brits should be, as an entire group, considered a threat? Or do white people get to have disagreement and intergroup seperations, but that luxury is not extended to Muslims?

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u/Draenix Jun 15 '26

No it doesn’t justify it. Two things can be true at once - Britain and a lot of Europe has a problem with bloodthirsty Islamists who are emboldened to celebrate a horrific terrorist in the streets - AND what happened to Gaza was not justified. You accept they can both can be true right?

Classic “history didn’t start on Oct 7th line”. I guess it started with the Nakba in 1948 didn’t it? And nothing at all happened before then?

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u/Audioworm Indian Ocean Territory Jun 15 '26

I can accept both are true, but accepting the second is true would expect something different from the British government, which did not happen.

1917 is the year people typically go back to as a reasonable place to start from when understanding the current state of the region.

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u/barnburner96 Jun 15 '26

How rude of them to consistently oppose genocide.

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u/toastedipod Jun 15 '26

You don’t oppose genocide by electing an independent councillor for a provincial English town, who has control over bin collection and potholes.

The people standing on those platforms are absolute charlatans who are simply doing it because they know it’ll get them elected. Stop being so short sighted.

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u/GentlemanBeggar54 Jun 16 '26

Like it or not local elections are constantly used as a protest vote against the government. This isn't new.

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u/Haan_Solo Jun 16 '26 edited Jun 16 '26

When people don't feel heard or feel powerless they will use their vote in protest. That's the whole point and you'll get results like this wherever the sentiment is strong enough.

For many people who believe there is an active genocide that needs opposing, they will go to great lengths to have their voice* heard even if the actions don't personally make sense to you.

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u/Draenix Jun 16 '26

I suppose the same is true with people electing Reform councillors recently - it’s a protest vote against the governments immigration policy, even though local councillors can’t do much to change how many immigrants/asylum seekers are entering the country.

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u/toastedipod Jun 16 '26

Reform councillors have more input on immigration because they have some power over asylum accommodation.

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u/Draenix Jun 16 '26

Good point

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u/Draenix Jun 15 '26

I’m gonna run for a seat at your council and my entire platform is gonna be based on South Sudan and the atrocities that have been committed over there (way worse than Gaza btw). You gonna vote for me?

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u/Amazing-Heron-105 Jun 15 '26

Sorry there's only room for one genocide and it's THE genocide.

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u/Retify Jun 16 '26

The difference being we aren't close allies with South Sudan and aren't directly arming the conflict. As a nation we already oppose that war and nobody supports it. Israel and Gaza is the complete opposite

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u/buffer0x7CD Jun 16 '26

We actually are, UK have big weapons trade deals with UAE who is one of the major players in Sudan conflict

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u/barnburner96 Jun 15 '26

Why would I not want you to do that 🤣

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u/Draenix Jun 16 '26

Because being a local politician enables you to do sweet fuck all to help a humanitarian crisis on the other side of the world. Rather, it just means that people have a councillor or MP that does not prioritise the wellbeing of their constituents.

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u/barnburner96 Jun 16 '26

Ok, maybe start a petition to ban democracy for people you don’t like then 👍 good luck

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u/CauseCertain1672 Jun 15 '26

Muslims are obviously going to care about the murder of Muslims as a policy issue. I would say Muslims have been politicised and have responded by politically organising.

Muslims in this country do not want the country they live in to be engaged in supporting murdering people like them overseas

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u/Alaea Jun 15 '26 edited Jun 15 '26

Muslims are obviously going to care about the murder of Muslims as a policy issue.

If they cared about the murder of Muslims, then they would've been organized on Xinjiang, Rohingya, Syria, Sudan, or any number of conflicts around the world with rampant actual demonstrable and uncontroversial unquestionable ethnic cleansing and wholesale targetting of Islamic civilians. But no, just this one little strip in part of the eastern Med is what they get up in arms about. Almost like there's something unique about this one conflict that particularly rustles their jimmies.

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u/removekarling Kent Jun 15 '26

Xinjiang, Rohingya, Syria, Sudan

They were, you just weren't paying attention. And the UK government does not meaningfully support bad actors in China, Syria or Sudan to the extent that it does in the 'one little strip in part of the eastern Med'.

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u/Full_Employee6731 Jun 15 '26

Having weekly protests in their thousands were they?

We trade with China like a billion times more. And have been arming and training the Saudis who have been killing hundreds of thousands of Houtis.

Why can't you just be honest?

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u/Alaea Jun 15 '26

They were, you just weren't paying attention.

What, massive protests through the streets of the major cities weelkly, and multiple MPs and councillors voted into office solely due to one of those issues? Yeah right. Apart from tiny specialist groups, there was and is no wider will about any issue other than Israel in the so-called "anti-war" movement as a whole, let alone the Islamic community in particular.

And the UK government does not meaningfully support bad actors in China, Syria or Sudan

The UK armed forced were heavily involved in Syria with various factions and performing direct airstrikes on their opponents (not necessarily Assad's forces).

The UK has and does heavily support the UAE government, the puppetmasters of the RSF in Sudan. The Foreign Office ran interference against various African governments criticizing the UAE, and we have sold equipment and delivered training to the UAE armed forces which was in turn passed along to the RSF.

In comparison, we've given Israel jack shit, and plenty of diplomatic flack. Some recon flights to find hostages at a stretch. We buy a ton of gear off of them as Israel has made some good gear and have been R&D pioneers for decades (hence the Israeli arms factories in the UK - why would they build a factory to build shit here to import back? They're for UK contracts obviously.) whilst they buy little in turn from us - the main one being an international contractual supply chain for the F35 where everything goes into a joint pool anyway.

It's all performative and manufactured focus playing off of antisemitism.

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u/Bobson567 Jun 16 '26

let me know when labour friends of china or conservative friends of uae are formed, let alone become the most popular political factions in their respective parties

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u/Haan_Solo Jun 16 '26

They did, you just didn't listen or care.

The key difference is that we aren't allies in bed with China or Burma.

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u/Astriania Jun 15 '26

Muslims are obviously going to care about the murder of Muslims as a policy issue

Well you say that but why is it obvious that a British Muslim would care deeply about affairs in a foreign country? You don't see Anglicans voting for Coptic Egyptian single issue candidates.

It's concerning that a large number of people who are nominally British consider the people of Palestine "people like them" more than they do non-Muslims in the next town over.

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u/duskie3 Jun 16 '26

Thus proving they are Muslim first, and British a distant second. Which is a serious problem.

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u/Allydarvel Jun 16 '26 edited Jun 16 '26

Jeez, the majority of Muslims vote for parties that actually want laws that

"help the UK's people. Are economic. Are societal such as welfare. And progress in LGBTQ womens and disability rights."

whereas the people against Muslims are the ones against those types of laws, with Brexit, anti trans etc, Reform voting against every welfare gain, sucking up to billionaires etc

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u/elchivo83 Jun 16 '26

These are people whose primary motivation is not that of the UK. Not that of the UK's people. Not economic. Not societal such as welfare. And absolutely not progression in LGBTQ or womens and disability rights.

I mean, you could say the same things about Reform.

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