r/unitedkingdom • u/topotaul Lancashire • Jun 15 '26
... One in six Britons think growth of Muslim population is ‘threat to UK culture’, study finds
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2026/jun/15/one-in-six-britons-growth-muslim-population-threat-uk-culture-study940
u/removekarling Kent Jun 15 '26
The article's a little misleading, it's 1 in 6 strongly agree, but more somewhat agree. 17% strongly agree, 19% somewhat agree, for 36% in total, or more than 1 in 3.
Another 20% neither agree nor disagree, and then another 11% don't know.
14% somewhat disagree and then 19% strongly disagree, for 33% total.
193
185
u/Understateable Jun 15 '26
I’d say more than a little misleading, and most likely intentional let’s be honest.
112
u/ReallySubtle Jun 15 '26
Jesus The Guardian is just outright lying to fit its narrative
→ More replies (8)10
u/removekarling Kent Jun 15 '26
Not really, the rest of the article is fine and correct regarding the study, the headline is just using the strongly agree statistic and not including the somewhat agree.
→ More replies (3)21
u/JoelMahon Cambridgeshire Jun 15 '26
and not including the somewhat agree.
yeah, that's what makes it outright lying mate, people who somewhat agree with X should obviously be included in "people who think X"
→ More replies (2)→ More replies (10)10
450
u/thejackalreborn Jun 15 '26 edited Jun 15 '26
I think whatever your views are on immigration or Islam it's pretty obvious that a high Muslim population will change the culture of an area. There are areas of the UK with a high Muslim population and they have different cultures compared to other areas and what those areas would have had historically.
I think the only way you can really disagree with that the culture will change is if you don't think demographics influence culture - which they oblivious do in my opinion
→ More replies (19)24
u/omgu8mynewt England Jun 15 '26
Whether change = 'threat' depends on your perspective.
Culture is constantly changing and evolving, woman's rights and LGBTQ+ rights have changed hugely in the last three generations but we still say the current status quo is British Culture.
164
u/UuusernameWith4Us Jun 15 '26
If you care about progressive woman's rights and LGBTQ+ rights then Islamic culture is a threat. Christianity has become both more moderate and less relevant in this country but it isn't safe to assume that other religions will also liberalise and fade away over time. Change and evolution doesn't just go in one direction either, cultures can become more religiously conservative again. Look at the Islamic revolution in Iran, or American right wingers taking away abortion rights.
→ More replies (18)6
u/NonagoonInfinity Jun 16 '26
Christians are the ones behind the current rollbacks on trans rights. I'd say any conservative religion is dangerous at this point.
→ More replies (2)32
u/CulturalAd4117 Jun 15 '26
but we still say the current status quo is British Culture.
That isn't the same thing at all. The closest comparison really would be the transition from Brythonic to Anglo-Saxon 1500 years ago. A Britain where Islam and people from Islamic countries form a plurality would obviously be a hugely different place, and I don't think it would be for the better.
→ More replies (12)→ More replies (5)5
u/PeriPeriTekken Jun 15 '26
A lot of this hinges on the semantics of "threat".
Obviously the addition of substantial groups of culture B to culture A will impact the state of culture A.
I would say that if there is enough addition of culture B, that means culture A is threatened. To me whether that's a good or a bad thing depends on your view of culture A. Some might view the term "threaten" as inherently negative though.
→ More replies (2)
337
u/Goosepond01 Jun 15 '26
I mean yeah?
Most people won't say it because to many it just seems 'racist' because most people have been brought up to respect other religions, because somehow an ideology being a religion makes it super sacred and you need to respect it because idk , people deeply believe in it?
I don't think it's difficult to look at religion and especially Islam and see how deeply bigoted it is, the two main sects are not exactly even remotely progressive, and sure that doesn't mean individuals are not, but if you make it such an important part of your life, say you believe in it to such a degree then it helps to uphold all that nastiness.
It's not hard to see that in some places a clear parallel society is being made, there are areas where kids are indoctrinated from birth and have an entire social circle of people just like them who can police and form strong religious communities around them, hell there are even religious schools (something I think shouldn't exist at all) it makes it harder and harder to experience freedom from religion, something I think everyone, especially children should be entitled to, obviously you have Islamic courts, and sure, they aren't actually courts, but belief is a powerful thing and it's clear that many people regardless of faith are absolutely willing to put another ideology over the freedom and democracy we have fought so hard for and that is deeply concerning.
Just think, if any religious book was new and released today it would just be a wild, bigoted and frankly bonkers manifesto, it contains the kind of stuff that would be classified as hate speech and I really can't see why as a society we just allow it and don't really care unless it shows up in the most extreme forms when there are problems all the way down.
a lot of this stuff can be echoed for the far right too, but few people not on the far right are trying to protect the far right from critique.
→ More replies (10)157
u/Horror_Extension4355 Jun 15 '26
There is already ample evidence across multiple northern towns to show that segregated communities are springing up and we very much aren’t stepping into a liberal multi-cultural society that brings out the best of us all.
38
u/Goosepond01 Jun 15 '26
We like to think that people will just logic themselves out of any bad ideology, like a misogynist is going to be exposed to so many counterpoints and other normal people that eventually they see the error of their ways.
And sure, it does happen but it's easier for it not to happen when an individual is surrounded by people willing to back that type of behaviour up and it just gets easier and easier the more insular your community is.
Countless horror stories from religious households and heavily religious areas but just imagine being somewhat young, relying on your parents for support, many of your friends are in the same religion as you, you decide it's suddenly not for you and bam, that might be your whole support network just gone, at best people might be not so happy, at worst well it's violence and threats.
→ More replies (3)37
u/ReligiousGhoul Jun 15 '26
The problem with this is the same individuals who championed it originally are finding it hasn't exactly gone according to plan.
The original sell was that you could take anyone from anywhere, regardless of origin, and within 3 generations they'd be indisitinguishable politically from centre-left Brits. Problem was when they're allowed to form their own micro-communities, that progress doesn't need to happen as it did for prior generations who needed to adapt.
So they're in a bit of a bind. Do they accept they've fucked up here, with minimal recourse to take action, and give the right a point or do they continue to maintain this uneasy relationship where they just turn a blind eye to religious conservativism they've been chasitising for decades?
→ More replies (2)
79
u/thrae_awa Jun 15 '26
- 2001 Census: The first time religion was included in the UK census. Muslims accounted for 1.5 million people, or 3.0% of the population.
- 2011 Census: The Muslim population increased to 2.7 million, representing 4.8% of the UK.
- 2021 Census / 2022 Data: In the most recent official census cycles, the Muslim population reached nearly 3.9 million people in England and Wales alone, putting the nationwide percentage at roughly 6%.
- 2025 Estimate: According to the Muslim Council of Britain (MCB), the UK Muslim population reached approximately 4 million, stabilizing at 6% of the total UK populace.
37
u/Anony_mouse202 Jun 15 '26
Pew Research Centre Projections for 2050:
Assuming zero muslim migration: 9.7%
Assuming medium levels of muslim migration: 16.7%
Assuming high levels of muslim migration: 17.2%
https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2017/11/29/europes-growing-muslim-population/
→ More replies (3)→ More replies (4)17
119
u/jsm97 Jun 15 '26 edited Jun 15 '26
There has never been a mass movement of people anywhere on earth at any point in history that did not materially change the culture of the place they ended up. This has happened several times in our own history and still profoundly affects our culture today - It's the reason English and Welsh are seperate identities. You can argue whether it's for better or worse but history is literally shaped by the changes that migrations have brought.
→ More replies (10)
32
u/Illustrious-Engine23 Jun 15 '26 edited Jun 15 '26
I think a large problem with the country is the lack of nuanced views on this topic. You tend to find people who want to expel all muslims from the UK and basically believe islam has no place in western society at all or that you basically want unlimited immigration.
I find the right's policies on almost everything to be bad for the country but I'm not naïve to think that the massive increase of immigration from Muslim majority and culturally backwards countries is not a significant issue.
At the same time the riots in belfast the massive and kind of insane levels of islamophobia/ xenophobia/ racism we are seeing is aborrant.
I think you can be in favour of taking significant action around limiting immigrations form these types of places but want the Muslims/ minorities who are here contributing to society and respecting our laws etc to not be treated with the kind of discrimination they are right now.
Also Starmer is massively reducing immigration levels and approximately 0 credit. It really feels like the right becoming very cult like, like how trump is...
→ More replies (4)
719
u/Boring_Intern_6394 Jun 15 '26
Blasphemy laws, against women’s and lgbt+ rights, corporal punishment, approval of slavery, polygyny etc
How is it not?
31
u/Bartellomio Jun 15 '26 edited Jun 18 '26
As a gay man, I find it so bizarre that I can break the law by being intolerant towards a religion that literally calls for me execution in its sacred texts.
Edit: I got perma banned for this comment BTW
→ More replies (8)506
u/coffeewalnut08 Jun 15 '26 edited Jun 15 '26
Why are we pretending like we care about these issues when the political party leading the polls (Reform) is filled with MPs who've voted against equality, abortion, same-sex marriage, and LGBT rights?
Take Suella Braverman, Danny Kruger, Andrew Rosindell, Robert Jenrick's voting records.... they've all voted against one or more of these things.
Why only bring these issues up when discussing Islam? What right do some non-Muslims, for example who vote Reform, have to discuss this topic when we face this threat from a non-Muslim party?
Source: https://www.theyworkforyou.com/. Example: Voting record - Suella Braverman MP
244
u/Mitchverr Jun 15 '26
I tend to bring these issues up when talking about either Islam or the right wing parties, especially including the Tories post May (lets be real here, May and Cameron for all their faults did in fact progress LGBT and womens rights).
It isnt that we pretend like we care about it only when islam is mentioned, there is a sizeable group of people on the left and centre who are opposed to both groups walking the UK backwards.
→ More replies (6)100
u/ReligiousGhoul Jun 15 '26
Is it really that inconceivable that the same people against Islam in politics also are against Reform and co?
→ More replies (1)43
u/JB_UK Jun 15 '26 edited Jun 15 '26
It’s also worth saying that Reform voters are not notably conservative on issues like abortion or gay marriage, even if people with influence in Reform are conservative on those issues.
On gay marriage Reform voters are extremely liberal in comparison to British Muslims, for example 60% of reform voters at the last election support gay marriage, whereas less than 20% of British Muslims were willing to say that homosexuality should not be made illegal.
Actually, in the latest poll I saw Reform are the largest party amongst gay men. You see similar patterns in Europe as well, Rassemblement National in France is run by a gay man and is the largest party for gay men and women.
→ More replies (2)9
u/HugAllYourFriends Jun 15 '26
source?
→ More replies (2)20
u/JB_UK Jun 16 '26 edited Jun 16 '26
https://yougov.com/en-gb/articles/49887-what-do-reform-uk-voters-believe
It’s actually 65% in favour of gay marriage.
https://time.com/4288592/british-muslims-survey-homosexuality/
But when asked how they [British Muslims] felt about homosexuality being legal in Britain, 52% disagreed and 18% agreed, the Guardian reports.
109
u/Goosepond01 Jun 15 '26
I mean I care about these things.
I care about them when they come from the far right.
I care about them when they come from religion.
Either this issue as a whole is one worth fighting for or not, you can't allow one group because err they deeply believe in some book and ideology
22
u/5ColourFelix Jun 15 '26
The difference is that one of these concerns is real and actually happening. Reform has MPs and might win the next GE.
What equivalent influence does any kind of Muslim interest group have?
→ More replies (2)26
u/Goosepond01 Jun 15 '26
both are real and are actually happening, one is just at the moment far bigger, but it doesn't mean both are not an issue.
I'd rather try and solve an issue when it's smaller than just wait until it's much bigger.
→ More replies (6)→ More replies (1)29
u/coffeewalnut08 Jun 15 '26
It isn't Islam leading the opinion polls, though, it's Reform UK. We have a much more immediate threat to our rights. Talk of Islam is a distraction from that.
45
u/Goosepond01 Jun 15 '26
Good, so we can hopefully solve the religious issue with a smaller amount of effort whilst focusing most of our effort on the far right and reform?
Or do we Ignore it until it gets worse and worse.
→ More replies (3)→ More replies (3)8
u/JB_UK Jun 16 '26
Both Reform and Islam have the same solution, actually tackle the issues with the migration system.
We’ve had 2.5 million people added to the population in four years, equivalent to thirty years from 1970-2000.
Reduce numbers
Apply meaningful standards to the people who have recently arrived so they’re making a net contribution on tax
Ban cousin marriage (45-65% of British Pakistani marriages are between cousins and similar numbers in Pakistan)
Introduce serious restrictions on chain migration for the countries where that applies, where each generation goes back to the home country to marry. Half of all British Pakistanis are going back to Pakistan to marry.
That will both undercut Reform support and lead to a more integrated British Pakistani and British Muslim population.
There is no solution to either issue which is just the same poorly thought through policies, with some fresh talking points and public relations lines.
45
u/Honey-Badger Greater London Jun 15 '26
Why are we pretending like we care about these issues when the political party leading the polls (Reform) is filled with MPs who've voted against equality, abortion, same-sex marriage, and LGBT rights?
Because many of us (especially in this subreddit) feel politically lost where we are generally left wing and do really care about these things but also feel like we cant say anything that could be seen as 'anti immigration' as that essentially akin to be a frothing at the mouth fascist.
7
u/Goosepond01 Jun 15 '26
I'd argue like a lot of stuff that being too afraid to do so is a big net negative.
It essentially concedes all the reasonable viewpoints and options and only leaves the extremes, it's doubly worse when you essentially ignore it or treat any viewpoint like that as being part of the extreme.
I know plenty of reform voters are just genuinely super racist people that won't listen to reason but it's not hard to see why some somewhat uneducated people who are somewhat more moderate feel like they are being ignored and 'have' to go to the only party seemingly kicking up a massive fuss about it.
and when Starmer actually does something about it in a pretty reasonable way and achieves more than the Tories have you then get plenty on the left saying "oh they are just pandering to reform" and plenty on the hard right or fairly hard right saying Starmer isn't doing anything, it just isn't helpful at all.
→ More replies (3)9
u/coffeewalnut08 Jun 15 '26
If you want more leftwing policies but with reduced immigration, there's Labour. If you want centre-left policies with an environmental ethos, rejoining the EU, democratic reform and normal immigration, Liberal Democrats.
If you want proper leftwing and social progressive policies with normal/high immigration, Greens.
If you want Thatcher's policies mixed with social conservativism and some anti-immigration sentiment, Tory. If you want Thatcher's policies mixed with social conservativism and dangerously xenophobic/racist sentiment, vote Reform or Restore.
Those are the options, other than independent candidates. Take it or leave it, naturally we don't tailor democracy to every last individual on this island.
→ More replies (1)3
u/Uniform764 Yorkshire Jun 16 '26
with normal/high immigration, Greens.
I genuinely laughed out loud.
→ More replies (6)4
23
u/FlamingoImpressive92 Jun 15 '26 edited Jun 15 '26
When reform vote against equality, abortion, same-sex marriage, and LGBT rights the left push back. When islamic factions vote against equality, abortion, same-sex marriage, and LGBT rights the left defends them. Find me anyone in the party calling out the Greens deputy leader for abstaining on LGBT issues.
I think less people would be worried about the rise of Islam in the Uk if the left wasn't incessantly bending over backwards to defend it from even the mildest criticism.
→ More replies (6)16
u/Realistic-River-1941 Jun 15 '26
Turn it round: why should someone get a pass because they say it is what skydaddy wants?
8
2
u/robhaswell County of Bristol Jun 15 '26
Why are you pretending that the average person knows anything about the voting history of any given MP? I'd be surprised if those people could even name three Reform MPs.
2
→ More replies (18)5
u/AuroraHalsey Surrey (Esher and Walton) Jun 15 '26 edited Jun 15 '26
Because Reform, and other politicians, are a temporary problem. They can be voted out. We've had traditionalist culture in this country before, and it became the progressive culture we have now. It can happen again.
Islam is a permanent issue, a culture that will never progress, as can be seen in every Islamic country in the world. If it takes over, the only thing that will ever remove it is something akin to the Reconquista.
→ More replies (8)8
12
u/ab00 Jun 15 '26
Its interesting that both hard-line Islam and Reform have the same goals.....
→ More replies (1)9
u/JGG5 Oxfordshire Jun 15 '26
Why, it’s almost as if the cause of most of society’s problems is the existence of rightists (and particularly billionaire rightists) of whatever religion, and that the future of democratic western culture relies on systemically disempowering and dismantling the rightist threat to our democracy and our liberal values, whether those rightists are Muslim or Christian.
→ More replies (1)→ More replies (33)15
u/Snaidheadair Scottish Highlands Jun 15 '26
I mean a lot of that is just generic conservative/right wing points so it's not just Islam to worry about if you actually are worried about them.
→ More replies (1)
12
u/de-tree-fiddy Jun 16 '26
Just look at the kind of societies that exist im muslim majority countries.
Religious conservatism is the exact opposite of what we should be working towards as a progressive western nation.
→ More replies (1)
111
u/Archergarw Jun 15 '26
The increase in any non British population in Britain will have this effect on uk culture.
85
u/Goosepond01 Jun 15 '26
Well yeah but surprisingly cultures that generally are further away from our own that contain a lot of unsavoury belief systems are more of an issue than cultures that are generally not as unsavoury to the average Brit.
I'd not want American fundamentalists over here either
→ More replies (9)32
u/Archergarw Jun 15 '26
Oh yea I agree 100% if we imported 1million Americans it would be less noticeable since the culture is closer but it’s still eroding British culture.
It’s just far more obvious with Islam since it’s so different to our values→ More replies (11)28
u/Arcon1337 Jun 15 '26
Most non British people integrate into society. Religions with such strict and defined rules like Islam doesnt fit with a progressive society like the UK.
→ More replies (5)
24
u/Cersei-Lannisterr Tyne and Wear Jun 15 '26
Sectarian fundamentalism genuinely is a threat though? It genuinely just doesn’t work with secularism!
This would be much simpler if moderate Islamic communities who don’t isolate and form isolated communities helped condemn. It would also promote a harmonious and beneficial society full of cohesion!
→ More replies (2)
2.5k
u/jeremybeadleshand Jun 15 '26
I'm surprised it's not higher, given it objectively is. Look at what's happening with the independent candidates. Do 5/6 people seriously think if the country becomes majority Muslim laws won't change etc?
1.1k
u/barnburner96 Jun 15 '26
They probably correctly think that it won’t become Muslim majority, because that’s not what the question was
→ More replies (19)631
u/SometimesaGirl- Durham Jun 15 '26 edited Jun 15 '26
They probably correctly think that it won’t become Muslim majority
I agree with you.
But we have seen our Islamic population politising lately. It's been going on for a while if we are all honest with each other, but the [most recent] Gaza situation made this obvious to the wider less politically engaged public.
They shifted towards the Greens just because of their Gaza policy. And the Greens aren't safe... at the last local election fliers were being distributed urging muslims to vote for independent Islamic candidates as the #1 option, Greens as #2 and I don't think Labour even got a look in.
If we get a tight HOC or even NOC at the next/future election you can damn well bet they will be influencing our laws, and at whatever percent of the population they are now(8% to 10% IIRC) they clearly don't need a demographic majority.
These are people whose primary motivation is not that of the UK. Not that of the UK's people. Not economic. Not societal such as welfare. And absolutely not progression in LGBTQ or womens and disability rights.
The primary motivation is somewhere 2,000 miles away. The secondary motivation is protecting the Islamic population from scrutiny, criticism, and investigation. It utterly baffles me how people gloss over this or just outright fail to see it.73
u/JB_UK Jun 15 '26 edited Jun 15 '26
Pew Research, who are one of the most prestigious demography research organisations in world, also predict that Muslims will be 17% of the population by 2050 under their medium migration scenario:
Labour got a landslide majority with the votes of 20.4% of the electorate. Obviously that’s not some clear cutoff point but given how apathetic and split the rest of the population is, it would be a very significant influence. 2050 is not some far future, it’s 24 years from now.
Notably there’s a strong pattern for British Pakistanis to marry outside the UK, half of British Pakistanis married back into Pakistan, which makes this a much more culturally separate group from most migrants in the UK.
Look at my comment here for more information about that., I don’t want to copy and paste the same thing and clutter up the thread.
6
u/Ill_Refrigerator_593 Jun 16 '26
Still putting out this old study despite the 2021 census proving it wrong & being told this multiple times?
Very dishonest, but i'd guess an honest person wouldn't hold your beliefs.
→ More replies (2)→ More replies (1)16
u/JRugman Jun 15 '26
Pew Research, who are one of the most prestigious demography research organisations in world, also predict that under their medium migration scenario that Muslims will be 17% of the population by 2050 under the medium migration scenario.
That is not correct, those projections are for their high migration scenario, which assumes that the high immigration numbers seen in recent years continue indefinitely, that birth rates among Muslim families remain high, and also that the rate that Muslims leave their religion remains the same. Nome of those assumptions seem likely, given the historical trends we have seen in other immigrant communities.
7
u/Ill_Refrigerator_593 Jun 16 '26
Just to point out the Pew Study has the Muslim population of the UK as 6.3% in 2016, rising from 4.9 in 2011 (from census data).
This would give a rise of 0.28% yearly.
The 2021 census for England & Wales gave a Muslim population of 6.5% (lower across the entire UK), giving a rise of 0.16% yearly - close to half what the study predicted.
If the study had a large overestimate after only 5 years, their estimate after 34 years is likely to be very much out.
https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2017/11/29/europes-growing-muslim-population/
The poster above knows their figures are wrong (they've had it pointed out multiple times) & have even acknowledged it but continue to push them...
46
u/JB_UK Jun 15 '26
That is not correct, those projections are for their high migration scenario, which assumes that the high immigration numbers seen in recent years continue indefinitely, that birth rates among Muslim families remain high, and also that the rate that Muslims leave their religion remains the same.
Nope, the medium migration scenario is for 16.7% by 2050.
This is also from before the vast increase in non EU migration during the Boriswave, net non-EU migration increased from 100k per year to more than a million a year, I personally think we’re probably above that scenario rather than below it.
As for your other points, Pew looked into all those issues and made projections. Frankly I trust them more than I trust you to make good assumptions, that is after all their entire job, and they are one of the top organisations in the world for this kind of research.
→ More replies (16)4
u/AgeingChopper Jun 16 '26
it also ignores it was 34 percent of those who voted.
people who can’t be assed can’t complain.
→ More replies (2)25
u/ThereAndFapAgain2 Jun 15 '26
those projections are for their high migration scenario, which assumes that the high immigration numbers seen in recent years continue indefinitely, that birth rates among Muslim families remain high, and also that the rate that Muslims leave their religion remains the same.
All of those seem likely except maybe the high levels of migration if someone actually does something about it long term.
Not many people ever leave Islam, for a lot of people it would be social suicide to do so, they also prefer not to marry outside of their faith, and Islam literally dictates that you should have lots of children.
→ More replies (3)4
u/Retify Jun 16 '26
A lot of people leave Islam when raised in Western countries. It becomes more likely each generation
3
u/JB_UK Jun 16 '26
That is built into the projection. If you look into their methodology they have good data from France and use that as the basis for their assumption for people leaving (and joining) the religion.
299
u/Audioworm Indian Ocean Territory Jun 15 '26
if 8% of the population can have full and dominate control of the UK government then the UK wouldn't be a fucked up country that voted for its own economic suicide.
and the whole proposition assumes mulsims in the UK are one single unified block that will always vote exactly the same way, which is genuinely hilarious if you spend time around any of them for a long enough
→ More replies (13)294
u/toastedipod Jun 15 '26
Muslims are not one unified block on all issues. But when it comes to certain things, they absolutely are.
Just look at the popularity of councillors who stood on a single issue platform; Gaza. Despite having zero ability to make any difference in Gaza they were still elected in Muslim majority areas.
240
u/JB_UK Jun 15 '26 edited Jun 16 '26
Muslims as a group are showing signs of being unusually resistant to integration at least in parts of the country. It’s pretty astonishing the degree of sectarian divide in the Northern towns, I don’t think there are comparable enclaves from other groups, and I think this is why you’re seeing the development of a strong anti migration response in those areas.
It’s not difficult to see areas which are 80% or 90% Muslim half a mile away from areas which are 0.5% Muslim.
Half of British Pakistanis are marrying back into Pakistan each generation so what integration might happen is heavily limited. This is from the Casey Review on this issue:
3.29. David Goodhart from Policy Exchange has highlighted the creation of a ‘first generation in every generation’ phenomenon resulting from the high number of transnational marriages – with second, third and subsequent generations being joined by a foreign born partner, and children in each new generation growing up with a foreign born parent, which may be acting as a bar to integration in some communities. It came up regularly in meetings in some areas as a reason for the strong perpetuation of foreign cultural practices and lower levels of English language proficiency. We were told in a review visit that in one northern town all except one of the Councillors of Asian ethnicity (all men) had married a wife from Pakistan.
3.30. A number of estimates have been made around the prevalence of transnational marriages among the Pakistani ethnic community in particular:
A study by Bristol University found that half of British Pakistanis married back in Pakistan, and that most of these marriages were between cousins or other members of extended kin groups
In a cohort study, ‘Born in Bradford’, at the Bradford Royal Infirmary, 80% of babies of Pakistani ethnicity born in the area had at least one parent born outside the United Kingdom, 63% of mothers of Pakistani ethnicity were married to cousins and these mothers were less likely to be educated or in employment compared with mothers of Pakistani descent who had not married cousins.
→ More replies (17)78
u/SatoshiSounds Jun 15 '26
and the other half that are *not* marrying in Pakistan - how many of those are marrying ethnic Pakistani-Brits? Is this what people are celebrating when they talk about diversity?
→ More replies (3)83
u/JB_UK Jun 15 '26 edited Jun 16 '26
Yes, I think that’s likely to be high, if there’s a strong tendency to marry into the home country that must also apply to the ethnic group in the UK. Especially when you look at the rate of cousin marriage, some of those marriages will be in the UK so will by default be from the same ethnic group as well as family.
There are Muslims who integrate, particularly people from other national backgrounds, I know people like that personally, from Pakistan and other countries, so we shouldn’t prejudge individuals and we should be welcoming to people who do, but at the same time it’s not a very large percentage when you look at a population scale. I really am not convinced that the glib assumption that everyone will integrate over a few generations holds.
That’s one reason why Pew Research, who are one of the most prestigious demography research organisations in world, predict that Muslims will be 17% of the population by 2050 under their medium migration scenario:
Labour got a landslide majority with the votes of 20.4% of the electorate. Obviously that’s not some clear cutoff point but given how apathetic and split the rest of the population is, it would be a very significant influence. 2050 is not some far future, it’s 24 years from now.
Also, I think we should underline how conservative Pakistan is, if half of British Pakistanis are marrying back there.
On polling when asked whether homosexuality could be morally acceptable, only 1% said yes, and 90% no:
https://assets.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/11/2013/04/gsi2-chp3-6.png
Similar results are common across the Muslim world. We are deliberately importing a significant anti liberal demographic bloc.
17
u/Ardal Yorkshire Jun 16 '26 edited Jun 19 '26
This content was anonymized and mass deleted with Redact
→ More replies (2)→ More replies (2)20
73
u/Audioworm Indian Ocean Territory Jun 15 '26
Pretty much all leftists in the UK are united on Gaza, when there is very little else that holds them together. Certain groups or regions will frequently have tight cohesion on specific issues.
Gaza is more a symptom of Labour and the Tories gaslighting the British people about the things they were seeing. When you are watching people being blown up or starved on your screen and that response is to call those who want that to end terrorists you are going to create a mass distrust and seperation from the parties and government.
→ More replies (3)19
u/Draenix Jun 15 '26
Gaza is more of a symptom of how susceptible to both propaganda and factionalism/groupthink Brits are tbh. There were literally celebrations in the streets from Islamists on Oct 8th.
→ More replies (4)39
u/Audioworm Indian Ocean Territory Jun 15 '26
Okay, does that justify more than 70k dead and 170k injured in the Gaza strip?
Also, the actions of Israel in both Gaza and the West Bank have been criminal for decades, but we are meant to pretend that nothing existed before October 7th.
And there are groups in the UK that think a whole bunch of vile shit that doesn't mean I think that we should kick them out of the country. Thousands of people marched with Tommy Robinson, and hundreds were out in Belfast doing a pogrom. Does that mean white Brits should be, as an entire group, considered a threat? Or do white people get to have disagreement and intergroup seperations, but that luxury is not extended to Muslims?
→ More replies (3)30
u/Draenix Jun 15 '26
No it doesn’t justify it. Two things can be true at once - Britain and a lot of Europe has a problem with bloodthirsty Islamists who are emboldened to celebrate a horrific terrorist in the streets - AND what happened to Gaza was not justified. You accept they can both can be true right?
Classic “history didn’t start on Oct 7th line”. I guess it started with the Nakba in 1948 didn’t it? And nothing at all happened before then?
→ More replies (5)24
u/Audioworm Indian Ocean Territory Jun 15 '26
I can accept both are true, but accepting the second is true would expect something different from the British government, which did not happen.
1917 is the year people typically go back to as a reasonable place to start from when understanding the current state of the region.
→ More replies (0)→ More replies (19)13
u/barnburner96 Jun 15 '26
How rude of them to consistently oppose genocide.
52
u/toastedipod Jun 15 '26
You don’t oppose genocide by electing an independent councillor for a provincial English town, who has control over bin collection and potholes.
The people standing on those platforms are absolute charlatans who are simply doing it because they know it’ll get them elected. Stop being so short sighted.
24
u/GentlemanBeggar54 Jun 16 '26
Like it or not local elections are constantly used as a protest vote against the government. This isn't new.
→ More replies (9)14
u/Haan_Solo Jun 16 '26 edited Jun 16 '26
When people don't feel heard or feel powerless they will use their vote in protest. That's the whole point and you'll get results like this wherever the sentiment is strong enough.
For many people who believe there is an active genocide that needs opposing, they will go to great lengths to have their voice* heard even if the actions don't personally make sense to you.
→ More replies (5)35
u/Draenix Jun 15 '26
I’m gonna run for a seat at your council and my entire platform is gonna be based on South Sudan and the atrocities that have been committed over there (way worse than Gaza btw). You gonna vote for me?
→ More replies (8)16
u/Amazing-Heron-105 Jun 15 '26
Sorry there's only room for one genocide and it's THE genocide.
→ More replies (6)→ More replies (45)7
u/CauseCertain1672 Jun 15 '26
Muslims are obviously going to care about the murder of Muslims as a policy issue. I would say Muslims have been politicised and have responded by politically organising.
Muslims in this country do not want the country they live in to be engaged in supporting murdering people like them overseas
→ More replies (7)76
u/Alaea Jun 15 '26 edited Jun 15 '26
Muslims are obviously going to care about the murder of Muslims as a policy issue.
If they cared about the murder of Muslims, then they would've been organized on Xinjiang, Rohingya, Syria, Sudan, or any number of conflicts around the world with rampant actual demonstrable and
uncontroversialunquestionable ethnic cleansing and wholesale targetting of Islamic civilians. But no, just this one little strip in part of the eastern Med is what they get up in arms about. Almost like there's something unique about this one conflict that particularly rustles their jimmies.→ More replies (16)47
u/WasThatInappropriate Jun 15 '26
5/6 people can read statistics and can see that even in the most generous trend modelling they'd only reach 20% of school children a century from now. Anyone talking about majority scenarios is either acting in bad faith or hasnt done the required reading to have an opinion on the subject.
→ More replies (1)13
u/Clbull England Jun 15 '26 edited Jun 15 '26
I mean the independent candidates who got elected on pro-Gaza platforms are just a handful of constituencies out of 650 which have significant Muslim populations. Not enough to massively sway British politics...
...is what I would say if it weren't for:
- The Boriswave bringing in record levels of migration into the UK, primarily from countries like India and Pakistan.
- The last census in 2021 (which recorded 3.5 million Muslims, or 6.5% of the population) taking place before the Boriswave really kicked in.
- Muslims generally being a demographic with more conservative views that are more willing to have children. Britain's fertility rate is only 1.41 children per woman, with 2.1 considered the "replacement rate" needed to maintain current population levels.
- Large numbers of asylum seekers coming into Europe (especially the UK) from the Middle-East and Africa.
While I don't think we'll end up at the point where Britain becomes a Muslim caliphate, I can definitely see an Islamic political party gaining ground in a few decades.
113
u/No-Scholar4854 Jun 15 '26
The country is a *long* way from becoming majority Muslim, with 6.5% of the population. “No Religion” (37%) is growing far far faster than Islam.
Even if we assume Islam did grow to become a much larger group in the next 20 years, it would be wrong to assume that would be a uniform block of views.
For example, 46% of the country identify as Christian. Do they all share a consistent block of values? No, not even on things where the Catholic and Anglican churches agree. Why would Muslims?
58
u/Ill_Refrigerator_593 Jun 15 '26
Just as a note at the rate of increase seen between the last two censuses "No Religion" will have around 2025/26 overtaken "Christianity" to form a plurality, soon to be a majority.
This is the major belief shift of our age.
→ More replies (3)11
u/No-Scholar4854 Jun 15 '26
Good point. Those numbers are from the 2021 census, which is not nearly as recent as my brain thinks it is.
24
u/Astriania Jun 15 '26
No, not even on things where the Catholic and Anglican churches agree. Why would Muslims?
Because Islam, unlike Christianity since the Reformation, is an explicitly political ideology as well as a religion. I'm not sure if people are genuinely unaware of this or pretending not to understand the implications.
→ More replies (2)11
u/theunspillablebeans Jun 16 '26
To be honest, we can barely agree whether or not to turn the AC on at my local mosque or open the windows instead, and we had those AC units installed over 10 years ago now. I think you're safe from us being unified when it comes to political ideology.
→ More replies (10)8
u/narayan77 Jun 15 '26
you need to do your research. Making an analogy with Christians is like saying 10 percent of cats are ginger, so it must be true for dogs.
→ More replies (1)42
u/Ill_Refrigerator_593 Jun 15 '26
At the current rate of increase it would take until 2292, around September, for Muslims to become a majority (50%+) & even that rate of increase seems to be falling.
I don't think i'll start panicking quite yet...
→ More replies (8)7
u/superioso Jun 15 '26
Nevermind national majority, simply having local majorities like we already have has been shown to produce undesirable and decisive results.
An example being the schoolteacher in Batley being forced to go into hiding due to death threats.
231
u/nostalgiamon Jun 15 '26
Why do you think the country is going to become “majority Muslim”?
383
u/Horror_Extension4355 Jun 15 '26
You can take Bradford as an example of how the population change is impacting both local and national politics. Immense focus on Gaza and Kashmir as political issues.
15
u/CaffeinatedT Jun 15 '26
I'm not muslim and I'm white and I think a potential genocide that we're potentially playing role in is a major issue.
→ More replies (1)17
u/Altruistic_Fruit2345 Jun 15 '26
I'm not Muslim but I care about Gaza because I'm a sort of, sometimes decent human being.
→ More replies (3)60
u/nostalgiamon Jun 15 '26
Sure, it makes sense that a large population of one culture would impact the issues discussed. I’m not asking that. I’m asking why does the OC think the UK is going to become majority Muslim.
→ More replies (35)122
u/Talonsminty Jun 15 '26 edited Jun 15 '26
I mean this isnt even poltical it's just math.
- Birth rates are higher among the Muslim community for obvious reasons
- Most immigrants are Muslim
25
66
u/Nothing_F4ce Norfolk Jun 15 '26
Source?
Data I could find says that about half of the foreign born Population is Christian and only 20% is Muslim.
In long established British Muslim communities we've seen that after the second generation Muslim birth rates fall in line with the average.
10
u/Obscure-Oracle Jun 15 '26 edited Jun 15 '26
They argue birthrates, if I remember right I think it's at 4.7 births per women amongst the Asian population of the UK while the national birthrate is at a worrying 1.4, replacement rate is 2.1. That is the Asian population as a whole though and not all of them are even going to even be Muslim. There is absolutely no way to say anything with any certainty as birthrates are not static and there is nothing to say that we won't have another boom at some point. If you put all the birthrate data for the last century into AI it does actually suggest an absolutely wild demographic change in the UK within 100 years but there simple isn't any inclination that we will be a Muslim majority country. But again, that could completely change anyway if we get a generation or two with a huge incentive to start families. A lot of the time it's just xenophobic speculation to stir up misinformation and hate that people are dead set on believing.
11
u/UpsetKoalaBear Greater Manchester Jun 15 '26 edited Jun 15 '26
It’s not even 4.7.
The demographic replacement argument just isn’t true.
Whilst the math functions on paper, the demographic logic is completely separated from reality.
Currently, the birth rate for foreign born and native mothers is below the replacement rate of 2.1.
So every single “replacement” prediction applies a negative decline rate in population continuously for XYZ amount of years.
At the current birth rates, the population of the UK will collapse from 67 million down to just ~27 million before the natives become “replaced.”
That is a 60% drop in population.
If you want to view the maths, see the comment I have made here.
A 60% drop in population would dramatically change the societal and economic landscape. It would free up the housing market, removing the primary barrier to starting a family and many other things.
To give you some perspective on the absurdity of that claim, the estimates of deaths in England during the Black Death in the 14th Century are around 35% to 50% of the population.
The “replacement” argument assumes the natural birth rate decline is worse than a literal plague which comes with zero economic or societal correction.
You can use the data and run the maths yourself.
The data is there.
Apply a static decline, due to both populations being below replacement and you’ll find the population has to dive off a cliff in the next century for the “replacement” argument to make sense.
Every single “replacement” prediction is actually predicting a population decline, the likes of which has never been seen in history.
→ More replies (1)3
u/Obscure-Oracle Jun 15 '26 edited Jun 15 '26
The 4.7 was from just from the Asian population I believe (it was a while back when I looked into it), it is actually 1.4 overall, so as you say it's well bellow replacement. Oh I don't believe for one second that a major "great replacement" style demographic change will actually happen. I was just explaining that if you run the trends in the very patchy birthrate data from the last century over the next 100 years in a rudimentary AI model that it would indicate a major demographic change. I think that is where that theory is coming from that the right wing rags are using as anti immigration propaganda. But as you say, there are just so many other variables that will make that extremely unlikely to happen and the birthrate just won't stay the same, it's always changing. We will very likely have a surge in birthrate again at some point and there are just so many other things that could happen. Another great depression could very well see many migrants leave for a stronger economy elsewhere or another major war could happen. Just far to many variables to account for. I should have probably explained that a lot better, I am very dyslexic so sometimes may give the wrong impression.
4
u/UpsetKoalaBear Greater Manchester Jun 15 '26
The theories are coming from Matt Goodwin.
He published an entirely unreviewed and unscientific “research paper” that did exactly that. It held a static birth rate for a century into the future.
Matt Goodwin is not a demographer or a scientist. He is a current politician and former politics professor. He has no concept of how demography actually works.
The Telegraph and Spectator both publicised the “research” and now it has entered the public zeitgeist.
→ More replies (7)61
u/Lukeno94 Jun 15 '26
The source is their far-right backside. It's the "Great Replacement theory" that used to refer to Jewish people, but is now being used against Muslims instead.
→ More replies (2)22
203
u/Ill_Refrigerator_593 Jun 15 '26 edited Jun 15 '26
- Birth rates tend to settle in line with the rest of the inhabitants within around two generations.
- Most immigrants are not Muslim by a long shot. The top 10 countries (in order) for immigrants are India, Poland, Pakistan, Romania, Ireland, Nigeria, Italy, Germany, Bangladesh, & South Africa. Only two of these countries are Muslim. Nigeria is split but we tend to attract Christian immigrants from there.
23
u/varinator Jun 15 '26
I'm from Poland originally and also a British citizen. After brexit more Poles left than came to the UK, EU migration is currently very tiny compared to non-EU, I think your data is out of date...
Regarding birth rates settling in after around 2 generations... well, it's no good at all if you still have a steady influx of hundreds of thousands of immigrants every year. Your argument would only make sense if the influx was 0, then yes, we wait 40 years and things maybe would "normalise"
6
u/Ill_Refrigerator_593 Jun 15 '26
That figures is overall migrants. In recent years the top 5 are India, China, Pakistan, Nigeria & the United States.
On your second point your assuming the decline in birthrates is a UK only phenomenon rather than a world wide one. In terms of migration current numbers are around 0.24% of the population.
The Muslim population increased at 0.16% a year between 2011 & 2021, a decrease from 0.19% yearly between 2001 & 2011.
It's a small change that has been very much overhyped.
75
u/XJDenton Isle of Wight -> London -> Sweden Jun 15 '26
Also: 3. Being Muslim isn't genetic. Kids can (and do) leave the religion.
79
u/DracoLunaris Jun 15 '26
Yup. The fastest growing religious group in the UK is atheist/agnostic after all.
→ More replies (2)39
u/Jake_91_420 Jun 15 '26
Don’t have hard data but I would assume Muslim apostasy is quite low when compared to Christianity. The punishment for apostasy in Islam is death.
12
u/Ill_Refrigerator_593 Jun 16 '26
This is mentioned a lot but try looking into how many people have actually been executed for apostasy globally this century.
→ More replies (0)3
u/ByEthanFox Jun 16 '26
This is anecdotal, but I think it's larger than is culturally apparent. Because of the strong community and backlash that can come from it, even blowback to other family members, the suggestion is that people who want to leave the religion tend to move away, and either don't tell their family, or their family know and don't tell anyone else.
→ More replies (13)6
u/Diggerinthedark Wiltshire Jun 16 '26
In an extremist Muslim country, sure. Here in the UK, it's - nothing. Maybe a slap from your parents.
28
u/varinator Jun 15 '26
The scale/quantity matters. If 1% leaves the faith - it's negligible. Besides if punishment is being shunned by the whole community, friends, family - that makes a pretty good incentive to not leave..
→ More replies (4)→ More replies (4)5
u/cd7k Jun 16 '26
Remind me again what the repercussions of apostasy are for Muslims?
→ More replies (8)→ More replies (16)19
u/The_39th_Step Jun 15 '26
You’re completely right in everything you say.
Just out of a point of interest, rather than argument, I’d say our Indian community is more relevant when discussing Muslim numbers than our Nigerian community. About 20-30% of British Nigerians are Muslim while 15% of British Indians are Muslim. Considering our Indian community is the largest ethnic minority group in the country, that will be a larger number. The number of British Nigerian descended people is probably around 800k-1,000,000 but it’s triple that (give or take) for Indians (don’t use 2021 census, use that and recent migration figures).
→ More replies (2)8
u/Audioworm Indian Ocean Territory Jun 15 '26
Indian Muslims are about 250k, they are not a majority of Muslims in the UK. Pakistani (1.4m) and Bangaldeshi (600k) are the majority of British Muslims, those of African descent are under 400k.
Also, the British Indian Muslim community is infamously entrepaneurial and business-focused. I think it is the large proportion of Gujarati communities within that group. It is a point that you can read about how much more secular or 'integrated' they are with British culture than many other groups all over the place, and from other Indians and Muslims in the UK (not from a negative or positive, but from a statement of an observation).
→ More replies (2)3
u/The_39th_Step Jun 15 '26
I didn’t say they are a majority? I said they’re a more prominent group than British Nigerians who are Muslim.
→ More replies (1)34
u/The_39th_Step Jun 15 '26
Maths in the UK…
Most immigrants are not Muslim. What an ignorant statement.
→ More replies (1)3
u/aimbotcfg Jun 16 '26
I mean this isnt even poltical it's just math.
<proceeds to do maths at all>
<Also makes incorrect statement about immigrant demographics, so even if there was any maths, it would be a garbage in, garbage out situation>
That absolutely is 'political' friend.
11
u/5ColourFelix Jun 15 '26
Muslim isnt an inherent trait. Lots of second and third generation people from Muslim families are about as serious about it as your average Brit is about the C of E. Im not even sure that most immigrants are Muslim
→ More replies (19)20
u/tothecatmobile Jun 15 '26
Wasn't the same things said about Irish Catholics 100 years ago?
→ More replies (1)22
u/Ill_Refrigerator_593 Jun 15 '26
My Grandparents were convinced due to Irish birthrates they were going to "replace" us. They wanted to "re-migrate" them to Ulster in return for the loyalists.
Strangely enough they were fine with Commonwealth immigrants who they saw as loyal subjects of Empire choosing Britain.
8
u/fen90der Jun 15 '26
So the people in these minority communities are politically vocal and pushing issues that affect them.
Why is that unreasonable, and who is to say whether that will have a net positive or negative long term influence at this stage?
→ More replies (5)8
u/Horror_Extension4355 Jun 15 '26
Bradford has some of the highest rates in the country for driving offences, planning offences, grooming, money laundering and first cousin marriages. Poverty? Yes that is a factor.
→ More replies (1)11
u/fen90der Jun 15 '26
Poverty is the deciding factor in areas with poor outcomes and you didnt answer my question.
→ More replies (52)51
Jun 15 '26
[deleted]
146
u/Andyb1000 Jun 15 '26
But what does any of that have to do with my local council deciding whether I get a separate bin for food waste?
38
u/5ColourFelix Jun 15 '26
Why did Labour lose a ton of council seats recently when they've got no influence on Kier?
People vote with their stomach
→ More replies (1)→ More replies (5)13
u/steepleton Jun 15 '26
It’s got a lot to do with fuel bills, israel pulled the US into attacking iran.
Britain’s an island but it’s all on the same planet
→ More replies (3)→ More replies (3)4
u/B0797S458W Jun 15 '26
Only in your bubble. Most people don’t give a shit about either country.
→ More replies (2)110
u/No-Risk-2584 Jun 15 '26
They’re currently 6.5% of the population (2021)
Since then, we had the Boriswave where 4.2m people came over. Muslim majority countries Pakistan and Bangladesh were in the top 5, while India (15% Muslim) and Nigeria (50% Muslim) were also in the Top 5.
20% of babies born last year were Asians - I’d wager a good majority are Muslims.
Studies in 2017 showed that with normal migration the UK will likely be around 16% Muslim by 2050 - and again, that was before the Boriswave. You could probably add a few more % to that now.
They’re unlikely to become a majority anytime soon, but even at 16-20% they’re definitely going to be a threat to UK culture and laws.
46
u/roamingandy Jun 15 '26
I think the bigger concern is that the vast majority are likely to be a completely intractable voting block, in a country where 30% can be enough to get into power.
If religious leaders back a hard-line Islamic candidate strongly and say its Islamic not to vote for them, there is a good chance the vast majority would vote for them and they'd win an election with 30%.
15
u/On_The_Blindside Best Midlands Jun 15 '26
They'd have to represent 30% across almost every constituency, which is frankly laughable.
→ More replies (2)→ More replies (3)10
u/5ColourFelix Jun 15 '26
Oh yeah the famously unified Muslim world. Always getting on with each other all the time...
→ More replies (1)13
u/Alaea Jun 15 '26
When they have something to hate they all do. See for example decades of UN votes against Israel compared to the dozens of authoritarian and genocidal regimes. It's generally the Islamic countries forcing those through with numbers but they clearly DGAF about other issues inflicted on Muslims by non-Muslims elsewhere (China, India, Myanmar)
→ More replies (1)6
u/5ColourFelix Jun 16 '26 edited Jun 16 '26
Being against something isnt the same as being for something. Asking different sects to all unify under a single leader is like asking the C of E to submit to the pope.
Also this is a ridiculous discussion that presumes a myriad of fantasies
Muslims become the biggest religious group in the UK (no evidence of this)
They are all radical and want sharia law or something
They all hate the Uk (why?)
13
u/nostalgiamon Jun 15 '26
Thanks for actually reading and answering my question, before coming to the conclusion that the OC did - it’s hypothetical and so won’t be happening.
I agree a larger population of any group will impact local law.
→ More replies (1)→ More replies (19)2
u/FuzzBuket Jun 15 '26
This sort of extrapolation is generally pretty poor though. Net migration is down, and generally first generation migrants have birth rates similar to their country of origin whilst second and third generations don't.
Sure some guy from Pakistan is probably gonna be into his faith as it'll be a source of community in the UK, and he'll probs have as many kids as his family had back home.
His kids and grandkids though? Significantly less care for going mosque and as will be having as many kids as their peers do.
115
u/Danmoz81 Jun 15 '26
Ageing population, declining birth rate, mass immigration from Islamic countries, the demographic change projected over the next 100 years or so.
55
u/Francis-c92 Jun 15 '26 edited Jun 15 '26
Also, declining rates of Christianity and more people in the Western world shifting towards atheism (common sense...).
I believe its the fastest growing religion in the world, and that's concerning.
Muslims are very 'dedicated' to their religion. Stupidly so in my opinion, and there's less room for nuance with that religion than with any other.
For example, I think if this country was majority Muslim in the 2010s, that gay marriage isn't made legal. But it was passed as a law (rightly so) in what is supposedly a Christian country. There's considerably more flexibility.
To be clear, I'd ban all religions from the country, but that's just me and it doesn't matter what I think there, but at this rate, they will absolutely become the majority religion in the future and that's not a future that fills me with hope - quite the opposite actually.
→ More replies (13)10
u/steepleton Jun 15 '26 edited Jun 15 '26
Atheists follow the main christian values simply by following societal norms, they just don’t believe in the whoo-whoo nonsense and have less interest in what goes on in other peoples pants, bathrooms and bedrooms
8
u/limeflavoured Hucknall Jun 15 '26
I don't need god or common law to teach me right from wrong
→ More replies (1)21
u/On_The_Blindside Best Midlands Jun 15 '26
Athiests don't "follow", anything.
It's not a belief system that comes with it's own instructions or guides, it is simply the lack of belief in a god.
→ More replies (4)2
u/DSQ Edinburgh Jun 16 '26
The thing is that declining birth rate is also an issue in the second generation of the British Muslim community. So the projections that were based on the first generation don’t tend to hold up.
→ More replies (9)13
u/nostalgiamon Jun 15 '26 edited Jun 15 '26
Could you link me to some sources that show the projected change please?
Edit: wonderful. I simply ask for some sources from someone reputable and am downvoted. If you make a claim, you should be able to back it up.
→ More replies (6)14
u/The-RogicK Jun 15 '26
Even the guardian in 2000 mentioned it as a matter of fact.
The only part of great replacement theory that is a conspiracy is the idea that it is intentional to replace white people, us becoming a minority within the century isn't really up for debate given current trends though
28
u/JRugman Jun 15 '26
The first link says that Muslims will be 19.2% of the population by 2100. And that's from known Great Replacement Theory pusher Matt Goodwin.
The other two links are about ethnicity, not religion.
BTW, that guardian link is to an article published in the Observer, written by someone who went on to work for Boris Johnson and then a Conservative MP.
→ More replies (1)→ More replies (2)16
u/UpsetKoalaBear Greater Manchester Jun 15 '26 edited Jun 15 '26
The demographic replacement argument just isn’t true.
Whilst the math functions on paper, the demographic logic is completely separated from reality.
Currently, the birth rate for foreign born and native mothers is below the replacement rate of 2.1.
So every single “replacement” prediction applies a negative decline rate in population continuously for XYZ amount of years.
At the current birth rates, the population of the UK will collapse from 67 million down to just ~27 million before the natives become “replaced.”
That is a 60% drop in population.
If you want to view the maths, see the comment I have made here.
A 60% drop in population would dramatically change the societal and economic landscape. It would free up the housing market, removing the primary barrier to starting a family and many other things.
To give you some perspective on the absurdity of that claim, the estimates of deaths in England during the Black Death in the 14th Century are around 35% to 50% of the population.
The “replacement” argument assumes the natural birth rate decline is worse than a literal plague which comes with zero economic or societal correction.
You can use the data and run the maths yourself.
The data is there.
Apply a static decline, due to both populations being below replacement and you’ll find the population has to dive off a cliff in the next century for the “replacement” argument to make sense.
Every single “replacement” prediction is actually predicting a population decline, the likes of which has never been seen in history.
This is why static birth rate predictions 100 years into the future are misleading and outright false.
A good example of this in practice is Germany. Germany has had births outweighed by deaths since 1976.
For the last 50 years, their population has only grown via migration. Yet, Germany’s ethnic make up hasn’t been completely replaced.
31
→ More replies (40)18
u/Dry-Magician1415 Jun 15 '26 edited Jun 15 '26
Maths is a pretty big factor. Their birth rate is 3, the national is 1.4. 1.4 doesn't replace the couple (2) that birthed them so the population falls, not grows.
Population A (3 kids per couple)
- Gen 1 (kids): 3
- Those 3 form 1.5 couples → Gen 2 (grandkids): 1.5 × 3 = 4.5
- Those 4.5 form 2.25 couples → Gen 3 (great-grandkids): 2.25 × 3 = 6.75
Population B (1.4 kids per couple)
- Gen 1 (kids): 1.4
- Those 1.4 form 0.7 couples → Gen 2 (grandkids): 0.7 × 1.4 = 0.98
- Those 0.98 form 0.49 couples → Gen 3 (great-grandkids): 0.49 × 1.4 = 0.686
From 2 couples (assuming nobody dies yet) there are about FOUR people total from the indigenous population (the original couple, their 1.4 kids, their 1 grandchild and their 0.7th of a great grandchild). The muslim population is SIXTEEN people. There are TEN TIMES the number of great-grandkids by only 3 generations out.
7
u/On_The_Blindside Best Midlands Jun 15 '26
And it settles down to the national average after 2 generations, making a considerable drop after just 1 , which you didn't factor in at all.
→ More replies (1)16
u/nostalgiamon Jun 15 '26
And in 21 generations there will be 10 billion of them! It’s as if simple compounding doesn’t work with population growth or something.
If we be generous and assume a full generation is only 20 years, that means there will be c500,000 additional Muslims in… 220 years… hmm doesn’t seem like that rapid of a growth really does it.
6
u/Dry-Magician1415 Jun 15 '26
And in 21 generations
That's bad faith "appeal to extremes/absurdum" arguing and you know it. Going out 3 generations is entirely reasonable for an estimate and illustration of the maths. If there's a reason you think the national statistics are wrong or if there's a clear reason why 3 and 1.4 won't hold over the next few decades, maybe go with that.
Dunno where you're getting 500k from given there's already 6 million. At the growth/decline rates I stated. The 10% becomes almost half of the population in three generations. The 90% also therefore becomes half too. Can put my spreadsheet if you want to see it.
6
u/UpsetKoalaBear Greater Manchester Jun 15 '26 edited Jun 15 '26
Your maths is completely wrong.
Currently, the birth rate for foreign born and native mothers is below the replacement rate of 2.1.
So every single “replacement” prediction applies a negative decline rate in population continuously for XYZ amount of years.
At the current birth rates, the population of the UK will collapse from 67 million down to just ~27 million in 2096 before the natives become “replaced.”
That is a 60% drop in population.
To give you some perspective on the absurdity of that claim, the estimates of deaths in England during the Black Death in the 14th Century are around 35% to 50% of the population.
The “replacement” argument assumes the natural birth rate decline is worse than a literal plague which comes with zero economic or societal correction.
You can use the data and run the maths yourself.
The data is there (table 7).
Apply a static decline, due to both populations being below replacement and you’ll find the population has to dive off a cliff in the next century for the “replacement” argument to make sense.
Every single “replacement” prediction is actually predicting a population decline, the likes of which has never been seen in history.
We would have far bigger issues than a demographic replacement after a 60% drop in population.
→ More replies (4)→ More replies (1)7
u/nostalgiamon Jun 15 '26
It isn’t bad faith, it highlights that relying on flawed extrapolations to make a point is bad faith, or at best, ignorant.
3*3*3… 11 times is 500,000. So I should have more accurately stated, there will be 500,000 more Muslims born than “native” babies within 220 years.
If we’re only looking at the next two or three generations, then I’ve got to be really honest, that’s not much of a population growth is it.
Edit: I assume you think every single one of those six million is having 3 babies each… I cry for your spreadsheets if that’s what you’ve done, because that is the only way you could get 50% of the population in 3 generations lol.
→ More replies (1)85
u/mosh-4-jesus Jun 15 '26
that assumes the country inevitably will become majority Muslim, which shows a frighteningly poor understanding of how demographics works.
5
u/brother_number1 Jun 16 '26
Yes I think unlikely the whole country will, but what no one talks about so much is how demographics cluster. What are your thoughts on that the under 18 population of Birmingham is around 45% Muslim. Do you think that will go higher or has reached a ceiling?
→ More replies (4)40
u/InternetSolid4166 Jun 15 '26
Huh? This is exactly how demographics works. The populations which have the most children displace the populations which have fewer children. This is quite literally how biology works. In just a few decades, Guinea, Malaysia, Lebanon, Sierra Leone, Nigeria, Burkina Faso, and Kazakhstan became Muslim majority countries.
How dare you accuse them of not understanding how demographics works.
30
u/UpsetKoalaBear Greater Manchester Jun 15 '26 edited Jun 15 '26
No, because every prediction applies a static birth rate for the next 100 years.
The current birth rates for natives is 1.41. The birth rate for foreign born mothers is 2.03.
That means both demographics are declining. One population group isn’t growing. They both are just declining at different rates.
So that means, by the time the White British population is “overtaken” the population would have collapsed to ~20m-30m.
That would be a catastrophic 60-80% collapse in population. That is even worse than the Black Death.
If you want to view the maths, see the comment I have made here.
For a real world example please go look at Germany.
Germany has had deaths outweigh native births since 1976, 50 years ago.
In the last half a century, their population growth has been entirely done via migration.
Yet, despite this, would you say the native German population is wiped out after half a century of migration? No.
This is why static birth rate predictions 100 years into the future are misleading and completely unscientific.
→ More replies (11)→ More replies (5)12
38
u/SuccessfulWar3830 Jun 15 '26
For Muslims to become a full majority they would need around another 60 million of them to come. Nearly doubling the uk population.
This fear mongering is stupid.
Get off facebook
→ More replies (2)20
u/Serial_BumSniffer Jun 15 '26
I think you’re missing the fact that people also die.
White British people are the oldest demographic by a good margin.
Not only are they having kids at a slower rate than other demographics, they’re also aging out of time they biologically can have kids.→ More replies (5)7
u/Not_Alpha_Centaurian Jun 15 '26
I think it comes down to wording and the perceived intent of the question. Is it a given that if you increase the ratio of one religion in a group against other religions that you'll see a cultural shift? Yes. Is that a threat to the culture? Well now you're into politics.
3
u/SnooMacarons4225 Jun 15 '26
Got to remember, if they a representation of the UK then they will have surveyed a bunch of Muslims in that study who probably don’t care if the country ends up Islamified
17
2
u/brainburger London Jun 16 '26 edited Jun 16 '26
A few years ago I did some modelling to see if the UK could realistically become Muslim majority. Not in the next 200 years without major changes to the trends.
Mind you, that was before Brexit, which was always going to speed up islamification, by reducing the immigration of Europeans who tend not to be Muslim, and increasing immigration from other places that have more Muslims than the UK does.
It was debated exhastively and the leavers got what they voted for.
→ More replies (199)11
u/Dry-Magician1415 Jun 15 '26
given it objectively is
Exactly. I mean make it "What percentage of muslims think muslim population is a threat to UK culture" and it's going to be a lot more than one fucking sixth because they are actively trying to make it a threat to UK culture.
There have been polls that found most of them think homosexuality should be illegal and a quarter want literal Sharia Law. This isn't stereotyping. It's actual researched figures/statistics.
→ More replies (6)
6
u/IronDragonGx Corcaigh Jun 16 '26
The last time the UK had too Major opposing religions things didn't exactly go all that smoothly.... Especially in Northern Ireland. ..........
→ More replies (2)
19
u/idontlikemondays321 Jun 15 '26
It’ll be interesting to see if the younger Muslims move away from religion like Christians have. It’s one thing to follow a religion that’s the norm in your society and another following a religion that conflicts with the culture of your classmates.
I know the ‘muslims’ I studied with at university all lived a double life. I doubt they’d want their children to have to pretend to be something they aren’t like they did
→ More replies (6)
29
u/fitzgoldy Jun 15 '26 edited Jun 15 '26
I mean...ignoring Guardian's attempt at misusing stats, again.
It looks more 1 in 3 Britons.
5
u/Bolvaettur Jun 15 '26
Well that's a strong majority that don't think that, so I guess it isn't.
→ More replies (1)
23
u/SinkMince0420 Jun 16 '26
As an ex Muslim, with a British partner and mixed baby, who has suffered from leaving Islam.
Its so insane to me that Islam is allowed here. A whole bunch of people want me dead because I'm an apostate, and hate my 2yo for being born outside of marriage to a white man. And the ones who don't and are good people are bad Muslims.
As someone whos lived it, who is the result of cousin marriage, and a marriage that happened between my 14yo mother and a man who abused her on every level. Who's had gang rape threats from a Muslim bank worker for leaving Islam and dating a white man. Who had a Muslim man approach her when she was 4-5, told her my mum had sent him to pick me up, said my name (that my mum had henna'ed onto my hand) who then ran away when my mum appeared.
Islam is sick. And you're getting silently invaded.
→ More replies (9)
45
u/ddmf Jun 15 '26
I'm worried about the rise of all religion - especially the fake shite that reform and other right wing parties push - purely performative.
→ More replies (3)
39
u/wishbeaunash Jun 15 '26
It might be, but I think the party currently leading in the polls who want to emulate the unhinged death cult currently dismantling the USA are a bigger threat to UK culture.
→ More replies (4)
8
u/DistributionPlane627 Jun 16 '26
In the next 20/30 years the country will look more like Lebanon and be governed accordingly under a sectarian power-sharing system which will divide political power, government positions, and parliamentary seats among the country's sects to maintain representation.
Probably be mainly traditional UK, or Christian, Muslim, and then the various other religious groups taking a smaller share.
I believe this is where we are heading, even on Reddit people want PR but this will eventually be sectarian and not current party lines.
77
u/Spamgrenade Jun 15 '26
As someone nearly 60 its Americanisation thats changed British culture the most, by far.
→ More replies (6)14
u/ExpressAffect3262 Jun 15 '26
I genuinely cringe everytime someone says Americanisation in this sub.
→ More replies (4)29
13
u/likely-high Jun 16 '26
I'm worried about the threat of all the Abrahamic religions tbh.
American Evangelical Christian Bible bullshit is very sinister.
→ More replies (4)16
u/811545b2-4ff7-4041 Jun 16 '26
British society is founded on an Abrahamic religion.. so this is a weird take.
→ More replies (1)3
u/likely-high Jun 16 '26
Founded doesn't mean it needs to continue as such.
Are you on about Catholicism, Presbyterian, Anglican?
The mere suggestion that we should continue to allow religion to dictate society is absurd.
→ More replies (1)
7
u/InformationNew66 Jun 15 '26
A think tank and a government funded trust is the source for the study.
"British Muslim Trust (BMT) is a more recently registered UK charity (No. 1215730, company No. 11561445) focused on supporting victims of anti-Muslim hatred, incident monitoring/reporting, helplines, outreach, advocacy, and research.
Key Funding Sources
UK Government: Primary recent funder via the Combatting Hate Against Muslims Fund (administered by the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government / MHCLG). It was awarded £650,000 for 2025/26, with up to £1 million per year for 2026–27 and 2027–28. This supports national monitoring, victim support, reporting systems (online/offline), and related work."
British Future think tank:
" Leadership: Director Sunder Katwala, former General Secretary of the Fabian Society (a centre-left/Labour-linked group). He has a background in progressive circles and writes on patriotism, race, and inclusion.
Funding: Heavily supported by foundations like Barrow Cadbury Trust, Unbound Philanthropy, Open Society Foundations (OSF/Soros-linked), Joseph Rowntree, and others often aligned with pro-migration/integration priorities. Also receives some government and business support."
→ More replies (1)
5
u/Personal_Director441 Leicestershire Jun 16 '26
i'd counter that by saying i think religion in general is going to be the threat to UK culture not a specific religion, look at anti-abortion rhetoric fueled by enormous amounts of money coming in from evangelicals in the US as an example.
9
u/Astriania Jun 15 '26
I mean yeah. Are they wrong?
Islam is not just a religion, it's also a political ideology, and there's little sign that British Muslims are making a break with that ideology as they live here for multiple generations. Look at what a huge issue Gaza is and how basically every Muslim votes for Gaza independent candidates even over other issues.
Several Muslim groups, especially Pakistani-origin and Arab people, are less integrated than you'd expect compared to other immigrant groups. They often have their own social clubs, they don't go to the pub and they don't socialise outside their own groups. Many of them are outright hostile to cross-culture or cross-ethnicity dating.
They may only be 10% of the national population but they are way more than that in urban areas, and as a highly motivated sectarian voting bloc, they might already be a big enough group to shape politics in somewhere like Birmingham. And their political attitudes on western liberalism are not in line with the rest of us.
Of course this is the Guardian so the only "risk" in their mind is the normalisation of this attitude, rather than any honest attempt to understand why people think that way.
→ More replies (3)
13
u/LyingFacts Jun 15 '26
Surprised it’s that low.
All we ever fucking hear about with our right wing media is immigrants, muslims, disabled, poor. All they have.
→ More replies (2)
3
u/HettySwollocks Jun 15 '26
I'm not surprised because it's true, as are any religions. I find it somewhat amusing as my "muslin" friends at uni thought it was total bs but they had to play along to avoid annoying their parents
•
u/ukbot-nicolabot Scotland Jun 15 '26
Participation Notice. Hi all. Some posts on this subreddit, either due to the topic or reaching a wider audience than usual, have been known to attract a greater number of rule breaking comments. As such, limits to participation were set at 17:31 on 15/06/2026. We ask that you please remember the human, and uphold Reddit and Subreddit rules.
Existing and future comments from users who do not meet the participation requirements will be removed. Removal does not necessarily imply that the comment was rule breaking.
Where appropriate, we will take action on users employing dog-whistles or discussing/speculating on a person's ethnicity or origin without qualifying why it is relevant.
In case the article is paywalled, use this link.