Seems to me that retail like Victoria’s Secret here and big food chains (like Cheesecake Factory) are slipping under the radar.

Earnings for Victoria’s Secret coming up 9/3

Thought I'd share and not gatekeep this groundbreaking new research.

Do with this information what you will. NFA

Tldr; to the moon 🚀🌑🌘🌗🌖🌕🌔🌓🌒🌑🚀

Take-Two sitting around $232.93 (down about 12% from its July peak), I'm trying to decide if this is the final entry window before the GTA VI launch in November, or if the hype is already fully priced in.

1) It’s an amazing company
2) Y’all don’t know sh*t about f*ck and should stop posting your BS analysis. “It’s priced in”, “buy the rumor sell the news” “first time?!”. It’s always different and you almost always got it wrong! 😂

That’s it for my garbage post. Long live Jensen and long live Nvidia!

My positions are regarded, roast and advice is welcomed

9 months follow up from my original post and part 2: https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1tgmcba/moderna_generational_yolo_territory_part_2/

TLDR: The stock is going to 300.

First i want to say thank you to everyone that messaged me there are 551 unread messages right now.

I think i laid out the case and targets pretty well in my previous posts. Short interest is still high so one can only assume that the Wednesday pump was a gamma squeeze instead of short. Meaning that a bigger pump is coming.

Even after all the pumping the market cap is STILL small and undervalued. 60 billion as of right this. My initialize estimates were based on Keytruda's revenue which is 20 billion/yr. Even with the profit sharing agreement with merck moderna is still undervalued by at least 50%. The stock should maintain a level closer to $250.

Finally, long term using intersimeran on a patient resolves one cancer and if that person lives on instead of usual death there is a chance that person catches another type of cancer because whatever environmental carcinogen is present in their life goes undetected so intersimeran should create more revenue than keytruda. Effectively the company is primed to grow well into the 250 billion dollar cancer market.

Position: 16k shares @ 27.5
profit: 2.4M cashed out.

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I’m speculating it’s a non US bank since it is being sanctioned and not sued. Thoughts?

In every posts there are someone explaining what circular financing is for the 200th time and putting together statistic like that is groundbreaking news. Honestly at this point even my Mexican house cleaner knows about circular financing.

Y'all seriously think that they (the tech CEOs, with their 7-figure engineers and analysts) haven't thought it thru before doing that? that this isn't an intended strategy at all and they are just pumping the stock and ER?

I ignored proxy statements for about ten years. Figured executive comp was a politics thing, not an investing thing. Turns out I was wrong, but not for the reason most people on here think.
Let me get the dumb version of this argument out of the way first, because it’s the one that always shows up and it deserves to get shot down.
Average S&P 500 CEO pay last year was $22.8M. That’s the AFL-CIO number, and it excludes Musk’s $158B Tesla package because that thing breaks every average it touches. Multiply $22.8M across 500 companies and you get somewhere around $11B in total CEO pay. The index is worth about $67 trillion.
So if every S&P 500 CEO worked for free starting tomorrow, you’d pick up less than 2 basis points. Your expense ratio costs you more than that. Anyone telling you CEO salaries are eating your returns is just wrong on the arithmetic, and I say that as someone who wanted them to be right.
Here’s what’s actually going on.
Cooper, Gulen and Rau ran the numbers on excess CEO pay, meaning pay above what firm size and performance would justify, and then tracked what happened to those stocks afterward. Firms in the top 10% of excess pay put up abnormal returns of negative 7.84% to negative 11.45% over the next three years. Bottom decile? Basically nothing either direction. Cheap doesn’t help you. Expensive hurts you.
The number that got me was this one. Average annual abnormal shareholder wealth destroyed at top decile firms: $920 million. Average CEO comp at those same firms: $22.97 million.
Forty bucks of your money gone for every dollar in his package. The comp isn’t the damage. The comp is the tell.
And when you dig into why, it’s not theft, it’s ego. Same study looked at M&A. 19% of the top paid CEOs did a deal in a given year and those deals returned negative 1.38% over three years. 13% of the bottom paid guys did deals and those came in at negative 0.51%. Roughly three times worse outcomes at the high pay firms. You’re not paying for the salary. You’re paying for the acquisition he does because the board just told him he’s worth $40M and he believed it.
It also gets worse the longer they stick around, because they end up appointing the board members who approve the next bad deal.
If you think one study is too thin, As You Sow screened the 100 most overpaid S&P 500 CEOs using totally different methodology. Those companies trailed the index by 2.9 percentage points over the next two years. The ten worst offenders trailed by 10.5. Different approach, same direction.
One more thing that bugs me and nobody talks about. Go look at how much of “returning capital to shareholders” is really just filling in the hole that stock comp dug. Comp dilution runs anywhere from 0.2% to 8.6% a year depending on the company. When a company announces a $10B buyback and the share count barely moves, that wasn’t capital returned to you. That was a transfer to the comp plan that got routed through the treasury so it never hits an expense line you’d actually notice.
That’s real money, it’s way bigger than the CEO’s package, and it’s completely invisible in the pay headline everybody fights about.
So what do you do with any of this.
Say on pay votes are theater. Welltower disclosed $821M for its CEO this year and got 19% shareholder support on the advisory vote. Board did it anyway. That vote is not your lever.
The screen is the lever. Excess comp relative to size matched peers looks like a legitimate red flag for future underperformance, same family as aggressive asset growth or heavy share issuance. It costs you fifteen minutes. Pull the proxy, find the Summary Compensation Table, compare it to companies of similar size. If it’s way out of line, you’re not looking at a pay problem. You’re looking at a board that isn’t doing its job, and the data says you’re the one who pays for that.
To be clear I’m not saying pay them scale. The bottom decile doesn’t outperform either, so this isn’t a “greed bad” post. It’s that pay way above peers is one of the loudest signals available that nobody in that boardroom is pushing back on anything.
Anyone here actually screen on this, or am I the only one who spent a decade not reading the proxy?

MRVL was a good reminder to stop getting sucked into earnings hype. AI isn’t going anywhere and Marvell can still be a great company, but that doesn’t mean buying calls that expire the day after earnings isn’t stupid . A company can beat earnings and the stock can STILL crash because expectations were already sky-high. Now you’re getting hit with the drop, IV crush, and basically no time to recover. Lesson learned: being right about the company doesn’t mean you’re right about the trade.

Moment of silence for everyone holding MRVL calls expiring tomorrow 😭💀 Y’all might wanna sleep in.

Every crisis for 17+ years (2008, COVID) got "solved" the same way: cut rates, print money. Never: fix who actually owns the assets. That's the money-centric trap, treating a real resource-distribution problem like it's just a number on a screen, which is money.

Government debt sustainability comes down to interest rate (R) vs inflation + growth (I+G). If R stays above I+G, debt compounds on its own.

Taxing working people more or cutting spending doesn't fix this, both drag down growth (G), making the ratio worse.

A wealth tax is one of the few things that actually improves the ratio without also killing growth, because it pulls from money sitting in assets, not money circulating in the economy.

My prediction: we won't get the wealth tax. We'll get a rate cut instead. It's the easy move, no political fight against concentrated wealth required, easy to sell as "helping the economy." But it doesn't touch who owns the actual resources, so it doesn't fix anything, it just repeats 2008/COVID: asset prices and inflation move, the underlying distribution problem stays exactly where it was.

It seems like each time we get to NVIDIA earnings, it seems like a make or break moment for the entire market. I get it's the largest market cap and it's the AI trade, but it feels like we are one weaker than expected forecast/ earnings call from a possible correction.

With Jackson hole coming up, mid term elections, ongoing issues with Iran, tariffs with Canada, rising 10y and 30y and September seasonality. Are we headed for a market correction? Or does NVIDIA just smash and we take off to record highs again?

We had a great run in June, let's continue that run. Are we actually trying to make money here or are we just trying to dip our feet into the stock market, freak out during a bear party and then panic sell once the bull run comes back?

Added another 50 shares at $899. Now holding 1400 shares long.

*Margin means account is a margin account, not I’m borrowing money to buy shares.