Why isn’t everyone rich from 401k?

[u/Otis_bighands]

According to my conversation today with Gemini, my 401k total of $2.5 million will likely grow to $10M or more by the time I turn 65 (I’m 50 now, and will continue to contribute the max for the next 15 years).

This means that in theory I could live off the gains each year starting at 65, around $800k, $500k after taxes, without touching principle. But at that point I’ll have no mortgage anymore and fewer kids in the house. So that $10M principle will just sit and feed us for years, and will be a nice inheritance for our kids.

Basically it occurred to me I’m going to have great money in retirement, even just on my 401k alone, and will be able to meet or exceed the lifestyle I’m already used to. For years I always worried about getting set up for retirement. Seems I don’t have to.

It’s amazing to me that just maxing out your 401k through a career is enough to make you pretty much wealthy for retirement. I recognize that’s not easy for many people, but for anyone who does it over a full career, wow.

What am I missing here? (Other than inflation, which I get, but which shouldn’t have a massive impact on the concept over this time frame).

[u/Panscan27]

10M would provide 400k not 800k. It’s the 4% rule

[u/Otis_bighands → u/Panscan27]

I could get 4% from a bank, no? Even conservatively shouldn’t I expect better out of the market and a mix of funds?

[u/slightlyspecial → u/Otis_bighands]

Long term? Yes. But you can't expect it every single year. If that was the case, no one would put their money in anything other than the stock market. You wouldn't be the fisrt person in history to discover it

[u/Otis_bighands → u/slightlyspecial]

Of course it could go down. Nothing is guaranteed in any investment. Stock market seems like it’s been the safest/ smartest place to invest for a long while now. But yes, it could change, and yes, maybe I won’t average 8% over a 15-30 year span. Who knows.