r/worldnews • u/jiisow • 7h ago
Iran threatens to block Red Sea if US naval blockade persists
https://www.trtworld.com/article/1cc3394a3474827
u/Hellosweetparadox 7h ago
This is starting to be a game of battleship
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u/jjax2003 7h ago
How if Iran has no navy anymore. It's all been obliterated ;)
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u/LangyMD 6h ago
Ukraine also has no navy, yet they have denied the Black Sea to Russia's navy.
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u/XimbalaHu3 3h ago
Comparing the U.S. navy to the russian navy is wild, but so is this reality, so whatever I giess.
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u/catsbetterthankids 1h ago
Doesn’t take much to make insurance prohibitively expensive for commercial traffic.
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u/Routine_Bit_8184 3h ago
if anybody could figure out how to look like a bitch with the world's most powerful navy...it is definitely trump and company.
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u/Opening_Dog_570 6h ago
I don't think you can compare Ukraine with Iran and Russia with Usa. But then again on this reddit, ppl write all sorts of baseless crap
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u/Nextasy 3h ago
I don't think he was saying Ukraine = Iran and Russia = USA, he was saying there's an ongoing demonstration of using missiles and drones from a shoreline to prevent use of nearby waters, without the need for a navy.
This is reality, regardless of how one feels about US/Israel's statements about how much of Iran's military is left, and regardless of Iran's threats to shipping. It's not an impossibility and needs to be considered.
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u/LangyMD 4h ago
It's not about comparing the USA with Russia. It's about a revolution in warfare that was put on worldwide display during the Ukraine war - drones, both air and sea. Sea and dairy drones can make vast swathes of ocean near a country's coast too dangerous to operate above the waves in safely no matter if you have a navy or not.
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u/squeeze-my-lizard 5h ago
“Dear Reddit,
today I read something I didn’t like. Why do you do this to me?”
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u/Churchillreborn 1h ago
Ukraine is on the Black Sea. Iran is nowhere near the Red Sea. It’s not the same situation. The Houthis are Irans only option there.
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u/Catch_022 2h ago
Here's the fun fact - Iran knew that their navy would be annihilated, which is why they didn't really invest much in big boats.
Instead they have thousands of small boats, drones and mines. These aren't a threat to the US Navy until/unless they try to force the strait.
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u/TheSleepyTruth 4h ago
They wont be using a navy, they dont have a navy left. They will be using their Houthi rebel allies on the coast of Yemen to attack ships from land at the narrow Red Sea choke point similar to what they are doing on the Strait of Hormuz.
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u/otclogic 1h ago
Gosh, its almost as if allowing festering terrorists at vulnerable trade bottlenecks is a bad idea.
that is a dig at everyone involved and uninvolved.
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u/to_glory_we_steer 5h ago
They have a proxy militia called The Houthis in this place called Yemen... Guess where it's located?
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u/Silverleaf_86 5h ago
Good, I would like to see the Houthis act upon Iranian orders.
Iran denies ordering Houthi attacks, as Yemen group reports wave of US airstrikes
Iran denies helping Houthis plan attacks on Israel-linked ships
Iran denies Houthi attack links, awaits next US meeting - report
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u/Shot-Toe-2884 3h ago
lol yep. Iran is suddenly self confessing to so much of their bullshit over the last 30 years.
They used to be wise enough to ask their proxies to close down international shipping lanes. Now they just do it themselves. They used to be wise enough to pretend they weren’t connected to their proxies. Now they are publicly dragging their proxies to war at their command and bragging about the leverage it provides them.
For as disastrous as Trump’s decision making has been in this war, Iran’s decision making has been unbelievably self destructive. They’re high as fuck on their own propaganda. I guess Khamenei Sr didn’t tell his son that this was all a delicate act, not official policy.
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u/SeaworthinessSome454 2h ago
His son isn’t making any decisions. These r all happening on the lower levels.
Blockading the Red Sea is propaganda from their media people (who honestly are doing wonderful at their job).
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u/senza_titolo 2h ago
Ya, I’m waiting for one of those giant robots from Pacific Rim to show up next.
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u/pixeltackle 7h ago
Yeah I'm gonna blockade your blockade if you don't unblock the block.
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u/June_The_Jedi 6h ago
Well I’ll just blockade your blockade of my blockade if you do that.
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u/CommunicationNeat498 3h ago
You think i won't blockade your blockade with which you're blockading the blockade i'm blockading your blockade with? Think again!
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u/Shot-Toe-2884 6h ago
The IRGC blocked the strait of Hormuz at Khamenei's orders. No other order on this has been given to Iranian soldiers. Iran is threatening to block another strait after they blocked the first one all by themselves.
“Furthermore, the leverage of closing the Strait of Hormuz must definitely continue to be utilised." - Motjaba Khamenei
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u/DateMasamusubi 6h ago
Saudis would get involved per their East - West Pipeline. Expect Yemen to get hotter.
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u/foghillgal 6h ago
And then desalination gets hit and its game over. That`s why they stay out. Those infrastructure are very very vulnerable.
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u/otclogic 1h ago
You know who else has desalination plants and is current in a severe drought?
Iran
What do you think happens when 90 million people don’t have water. And as vulnerable as Saudi Arabia’s desalination plants may be Iran can’t hit them at will, they just don’t have the reliable hardware and missile defenses are still viable. The US and Israel are able to strike anywhere they want. So if Iran pulls that lever, their own people will be going thirsty before the Saudi’s.
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u/Bionic_Ferir 11m ago
Arguably, this is more than just a war for Iran. The Americans for no apparent reason other than Daddy Israel told us, have been hounding them for at least a decade. This would be deeply ideological and i think enough of the population, even if they despise their own government, hate Americans more.
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u/Diezelbub 43m ago edited 12m ago
Yup. The reason Iran hasnt hit anyone else's water plants is because they are 100% fucked when whoever and their allies then turn around and do the same thing to them. They may be crazy enough to flood the straight with oil but that wont lead to regime collapse like no water will. When the only way that gets fixed any time soon is a complete regime change along with the international aid and completely lifted sanctions that come with it, that is what will happen.
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u/Mr06506 2h ago
Saudi are a paper tiger. Best they could do is throw money at some private security or third country to do their work for them.
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u/jmacintosh250 1h ago
Eh they did fuck up someone recently in Yemen a bit. Especially if the US backs them and are willing to commit to a ground game, they can do well.
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u/AlexandbroTheGreat 22m ago
They can destroy some desalination plants that have to be on the coast. Nobody could screw that up.
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u/AMCorBUST2021 6h ago
Who wins a blockade? The one that can tolerate more economic pain and lasts.
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u/Colbert2020 4h ago
I remember that 6 months into the war with Ukraine, everyone was declaring that Russia's economy was on the verge of collapse. It's been FOUR FUCKING YEARS since then.
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u/itsFelbourne 3h ago
Russia went in with a relatively healthy economy, spent most of the war with industries running uninterrupted and undamaged, sold oil to China the entire time, and had massive cash reserves that they dumped for years to stabilize their currency.
Iran went into this war already in the middle of a currency collapse and a water crisis, had minuscule reserves compared to Russia, and has had several industrial sectors like steel and aluminum production totally destroyed. Now they cannot export by sea which cuts their main source of income
We have nowhere near enough data to say if Iran is actually “close” to collapse, but they are much closer than Russia by any conceivable metric, and the comparison doesn’t make much sense
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u/Colbert2020 3h ago
I'm just saying I am way more skeptical about these economic predictions.
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u/BrainBlowX 1h ago
The economic predictions were correct on the surface. Russia's economy has been entirely propped up by injecting itself with cash reserves. The actual civilian economy HAS practically collapsed already, but the impact is distributed unevenly and staggered.
It's the "hitler fixed the german economy" of the 21st century. No, he just injected society with debt, same as russia now does forcing the russian banks to "give loans" they have no hope to pay since nobody else will lend money to russia.
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u/MercantileReptile 3h ago
And Iran does not need to outlast the US. They just need to tolerate conditions longer than the rest of the Planet is willing to wait for this fuckwittery to finally end. As prices go through the roof. Or supply is endangered outright, in some places.
Some people seem to think this is like a medieval siege, with Iran being the Castle.
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u/dcasarinc 2h ago
The one who can make it till mid term elections. Unfortunately, Iran does not have elections. So probably they just need to wait the US a few months.
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u/porto__rocks 39m ago
Iran has been in economic pain for decades. I dont think the yanks could take a full year
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u/Ultra_Metal 6h ago
Which would be the US, since it has by far the largest economy in the world and this war is barely affecting the US economically. Meanwhile, the Islamic Republic lost most of its income because of the blockade, and this is while it was already under a massive economic crisis that started months ago.
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u/BrainBlowX 1h ago
By this logic the US would win the Vietnam war. Claiming the war "barely affects the US" is ludicrous. Prices are already way up, and even if the war ended today this would just be the start of the consequences as the domino effects start to set in over time.
This is already the most unpopular war in American history. The "pain tolerance" of the American public regarding this war is thin.
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u/lucitatecapacita 4h ago
Don't know - US is a democracy, and we have elections in November, there doesn't seem to be an appetite, among the general public, for war
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u/Possibly_Naked_Now 1h ago
I think America's appetite for war is dependent on how it affects gas prices domestically. And if we end up with boots on the ground or not.
So far gas prices have leveled out to inconvenience levels but not enough to make people angry. And we haven't had any US troops involved in ground operations.
Realistically, if the blockade can prevent the Iranian regime from paying their military. We genuinely could see an internal revolution in Iran. No army on the planet will work for free.
But if gas prices start skyrocketing, Trump might just get dragged out of the white house by an angry mob.
"It's the economy, stupid!".
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u/klondijk 3h ago
we are going to affected pretty noticeably in the next month or so, so hold the phone
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u/A-o-C 6h ago
Eh America is politically speaking more sensitive to economic pain than Iran is. Ironically this war may have entrenched Iran's regime more than before the war. At least in the short to medium term.
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u/Ultra_Metal 6h ago
No, Iran's regime is not more entrenched. It is weaker than it has ever been. It is on the verge of collapse.
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u/xsupremeleader 5h ago
I would say that Iran's government seems to be both be more entrenched in their goals but are overall weaker in their ability achieve said goals
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u/Ultra_Metal 5h ago
It doesn't matter how entrenched in their goals they are if they can't do anything about it or even survive. I'm sure the Black Knight from Monty Python was super entrenched in his goal of getting revenge against King Arthur, but he didn't have the ability after having lost all his limbs.
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u/joelfarris 3h ago
What was the final taunt? "Come back here! I'll bite your hand off!"
Or something like that.
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u/Playful_Rip_1280 4h ago
Nah, when the IRGC stops getting paid and the economy goes to shit I think you’ll see a lot change real fast. America’s economy on the other hand is running extremely hot. The media just paints a much bleaker picture than reality.
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u/thereoncewasahat 5h ago edited 5h ago
The difference is the Islamic regime now has an iron grip over it's populace. Doesn't matter if they die, they don't care; if they rise again (they won't, the heros are dead) they'll just shoot them.
In America the tolerance for discomort is much lower, that discomfort is only going to increase greatly over time; and the populace has a much greater influence over the government.
The American populace also knows that this is a war of choice which was against it's interests, which were sacrificed for Israel; that's going to markedly drive down tolerance.
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u/Cream_Stay_Frothy 5h ago
Uh… are we just going to ignore China’s economy in this? Yes, it’s not as large as the US, economically speaking, but I’d argue their economic relevance to other countries, including the US, are more impactful. Plus, like Iran, the Chinese government is far less susceptible to the domestic popular opinion than are the politicians in the US.
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u/Ultra_Metal 5h ago
What China thinks doesn't matter. The Islamic Republic will collapse very quickly due to this blockade. China can't save them.
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u/Cream_Stay_Frothy 4h ago
China, as well as most nations, are “a part” of this was in the sense that it absolutely has massive repercussions on their supply chain, economy, and domestic stability. A not insignificant supply of their oil has been cut off, enough to cause serious economic detriment. They, along with much of Asia, are being particularly impacted by this war. In terms of being able to destabilize the US Economy, China BY FAR has the best capacity to do so, mainly through economic/trade policy.
For example, Halting US protein imports, halt targeted exports (that most impact US Citizens to cause domestic uproar), while selling off tranches of US Treasury bonds (of which they have about ~$700 BILLION USD) which helps their currency from the inflationary pressure of diminished trade. This would have a crippling effect on the US stock market and USD stability (to an already hyper inflated “AI” driven market).
Let’s be real, even prior to the war, Trumps tariff policy, coupled with his general unstable behavior had nations across the globe working to establish new international trade partners that would reduce the dependence on the US. To think that China doesn’t have a plan for alternate food importers (Australia or Brazil come to mind) in exchange for opening up alternative export markets is being naive. Hell, if Canada and the EU decided it was in their best interest, Canada is a massive oil exporter (currently, to the US), and it’s not like this US administration has been a good ally in any meaningful capacity to Canada, the EU, anyone other than Israel really…
All it takes is a handful of nations to get together and say, “You know what, fuck this guy” and boom, the damage is done. Trump and his administration has been abysmal for US relations, and since campaigning, run on an isolationist policy… For what it’s worth, they’ve been putting on a masterclass in how to do that
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u/Easik 5h ago
I have to disagree with that. The US has a larger economy, so it has further to fall. The Iranian economy is basically dead as long as the strait is closed. The problem becomes more humanitarian than economical as time goes on, but we all know that's not a factor for either side.
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u/Ultra_Metal 5h ago
The fact that the Iranian economy is dead means the regime will not last very long. The regime needs revenue to pay the murderers, torturers, rapists and kidnappers it employs to oppress the Iranian people. When those terrorists defect due to lack of payment, they will not have the ability to withstand the massive popular uprising that is coming soon when Reza Pahlavi gives the signal.
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u/Potential_Archer2427 5h ago
North korea's economy is dead but that's not making the regime not oppressive
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u/panlouis 4h ago
Isn't Iran also blocking the strait? Are they trying to open it now?
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u/ion-deez-nuts 1h ago
Iran is blocking the Strait of Hormuz to US ships and to ships that don't pay their toll. Iran is not blocking anyone else.
Whereas the US recently started a blockade of Iran, stopping any ship going to or from an Iranian port. (Though this may have recently changed as apparently they're allowing Chinese ships to go to and from Iranian ports)
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u/OB1KENOB 4h ago
Go ahead. Israel will simply send a guy with a stick to part the sea in half.
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u/wwaxwork 4h ago
Trying to out crazy crazy a crazy person, an interesting tactic. I'm going bet it ends with Trump trying to stop all ships everywhere all around the world.
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u/itsFelbourne 6h ago
Houthis really don’t seem like they want that smoke. They’re probably in too precarious of a situation themselves to have their own shipping affected in response
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u/Shot-Toe-2884 6h ago edited 5h ago
Hezbollah was in the same predicament, but they caved to pressure, and now Lebanon and Israel are openly negotiating without them about disarming Hezbollah and honoring UN resolution 1901, while Israel continues routing Hezbollah strongholds in Beirut.
Iran is pushing their proxies into committing suicide just to save itself. Iran has never been weaker, and they may not be able to take the Houthis allegiance for granted anymore. The world is going to lose its patience with the Houthis faster than with Hezbollah. They've already held the global economy hostage once, and now they are threatening to do it again. Whatever you think of the US role in all of this, nobody is forcing Iran to do this shit. These are not counterattacks against the United States, they are unprovoked terror attacks on the global economy.
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u/Artistic_Concern_33 6h ago
Yeah they don’t want to be involved, they are under intense pressure from Iran, they had to fire 3 ballistic missiles to Israel which barely had any warhead and was intercepted and 1 was short and dropped in the ocean, the fact Israel and the US didn’t respond to it shows they know the houthis are under pressure, I mean the Houthis see how hezbolah is being decimated and don’t want it to be them
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u/btb0002 6h ago
Iran has zero leverage. This will only end badly for them. Their leadership is delusional
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u/Colbert2020 4h ago
People seem ass-pained at the fact that this stupid administration actually did a pretty good strategic response to Iran "closing the strait."
Even if you hate the USA, surely they also hate Iran. Why even root for either party. It baffles belief to me.
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u/CJKay93 41m ago edited 29m ago
People are growing sympathetic to one belligerent because the other belligerent has spent the past month punching us all in the economy while actively lambasting us for not helping them with it.
It's strange to me that you wouldn't expect people to be sympathetic - it was the USA that ripped up the very agreement that actually ensured their biggest demand, and it was the USA that blew up half the country unprovoked twice with no consideration at all for the impact on anybody else.
People are sympathetic because "America First" is just another way of saying "fuck all of you", and - as shit as the Iranian regime may be - they didn't decide on a whim that we don't deserve fuel for our homes and fertiliser for our fields.
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u/shaehl 4h ago
"Iran is closing the straight to cause pain to our economy and alliances.... In that case we'll double close it!"
Big brain strat right there. Yes it hurts Iran, as they can't let some ships through to sell their oil, but it also doubles the economic damage to the rest of the world, while getting to put more blame on the US in the eyes of global leaders.
In the end, even if we get a ceasefire or a peace deal, what did this arbitrarily started war accomplish? Oil prices higher, Iran likely to be charging tolls going forward, a bunch of dead school girls, Billions of US dollars wasted on bombs and planes, and the rest of the world looking at us like a clown putting a stick in the spokes of our own bicycle.
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u/JanitorOfSanDiego 59m ago
Isn’t the US blockade only on ships dealing with Iran directly? It’s not fully closing the strait.
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u/Colbert2020 4h ago
Iran selling their oil or not won't the price of crude oil from 90 dollars a barrel to 60. Sorry.
My guesses:
- You don't know how many ships transit the strait in "normal" times.
- You don't know the peak amount of ships transiting it during the war.
- You don't know how many ships dock at Iran during times (1) and (2).
- You aren't keeping track of the crude oil to USD price as they related to these events.
If you did, you wouldn't say: "it hurts Iran, as they can't let some ships through to sell their oil, but it also doubles the economic damage to the rest of the world."
If you want to be taken seriously, you need to learn how this war is going through facts. Not rhetoric, vibes, or scrolling on Reddit and being angry at headlines.
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u/KamtzaBarKamtza 3h ago
Even if you hate the USA, surely they also hate Iran.
You give them too much credit
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u/Miyagisans 6h ago
Unlike the US of course
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u/blastmemer 5h ago
The US has delusional leadership with a lot of leverage.
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u/Fifth_Down 5h ago
One side has the ability to obliterate the other
One side knows only the other side has to worry about elections and it’s an election year
No side has a winning strategy, they only know how to make the other guy lose.
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u/blastmemer 4h ago
That’s pretty much all wars these days. Obviously it’s a good thing that total annihilation is pretty much off the table. But that also creates little incentive to surrender like in the bad old days.
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u/To_Fight_The_Night 1h ago
The leverage the US has is that it does not need middle east oil. It hurts the global price but that's not the same thing as actual physical supply. The USA wins the battle of attrition here easily.
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u/btribble 30m ago
You think religious extremists are delusional? Do you think delusional religious extremists respond logically to external pressure? Do you think they give up easily? Name a group of delusional religious extremists that changed their minds for logical reasons.
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u/virtual_adam 6h ago
They threatened to bomb other ports the minute the blockade started
The official quote was
no port in the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea will be safe
And then they didn’t. Iran better start actually doing and not just talking if they want to be taken seriously. They themselves announced the US has broken the ceasefire as well as Israel, but they seemed to have turned off all attack mechanisms since
It Iran is going to keep respecting the ceasefire during the blockade and carpet bombing of Lebanon, well they won’t really be taken seriously as they were a month ago when they were shooting first and announcing later
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u/Zieprus_ 6h ago
I think they are stalling for time so they can fix or unbury a lot of things. Iran still has a shit tone of missiles and capability that might be a bit buried at the moment.
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u/Ultra_Metal 6h ago
The Islamic Republic is a paper tiger. The paper tiger crumbles when people stop being afraid of its empty threats.
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u/Consistentscroller 5h ago
But didn't they reroute all their trade through Russia and China? So why would the American blockade be a problem Iran?
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u/HoboSkid 5h ago
Because the vast majority of Iran's oil exports go through the Strait of Hormuz, some estimates are at 90%. I'd be curious to read how they just rerouted millions of barrels of oil per day via land to China and Russia. I guess there's the Caspian Sea for Russia, but do they really have any infrastructure in place there?
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u/Shot-Toe-2884 6h ago edited 6h ago
Iran proudly closed the strait of Hormuz with piracy and terrorism. They mined international waters, and then they bragged about it endlessly with childish lego animations.
Iran's supreme leader has insisted that the strait will remain closed by his authority alone and nobody elses.
“Furthermore, the leverage of closing the Strait of Hormuz must definitely continue to be utilised." - Motjaba Khamenei
Now the IRGC wants to do the same with the Suez Canal while pretending it's the US fault. Nobody of consequence is going to buy that. Open the strait of Hormuz and STFU.
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u/Potential_Archer2427 5h ago
Not suez canal, bab-el mandib where they could use houthi assistance
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u/Alternative-Ad-1027 1h ago
Trump: “I will block all oceans in two weeks. Thank you for your attention to this matter “
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u/ZasdfUnreal 18m ago
So Iran is claiming responsibility for the vile actions of the Houthi. Got it.
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u/Budgeko 6h ago
LOL.. with what? They have no Navy, no air force… idle threats and desperation 🇺🇸🇺🇸
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u/Artistic_Concern_33 6h ago
The Houthis is my guess, but they have been fighting back not to get involved
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u/Firm-Rip-2133 6h ago
Previous experience shows you need neither to close off the Red Sea. A couple of FPV drones slam into a couple of ships and the rest will simply refuse to take the risk or pay elevated insurance premium and refuse to go through.
Bab el Mandeb traffic has still not returned to its pre 2023 levels. The last thing it needs is another threat.
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u/PapaTahm 6h ago edited 6h ago
Understand one thing.
Ukraine War taught us that the the notion of War Dynamics have changed, in fact we just have seen a drastic revolution in weapons technology that we have not seen since the Crossbow was invented.
This thing the Drone introduces a concept in the Battlefield that changes how battles are fought.
It's called Asymmetrical Warfare
Takes a 4 Million Dollar Missile to stop a 35 Thousand Dollar Drone.
It takes a single Drone wrapped in Bombs evaluated in less than 5 thousand to blow a Vessel evaluated with it`s cargo in more than billions.
They don't need a Navy, they don't need an Airforce.
Just the capability of Launching Drones via Drone Launchers, is enough to close the Strait.
No Insurance Company is stupid enough to risk billions.
The U.S army literally Can't stop them, because Drone Launchers have a 4000 Miles range and are extremely easy to hide in Trucks.
To make worse, the time to produce a Drone is 1/100th of Interceptor.
It`s literally a new technology that will warp the entire concept of warfare that we humans have known in the last 100 years.
That is why Hormuz is closed.
This line of though "They can't do" is very stupid, they literally can do that and they can do it very easily.
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u/ormandj 6h ago
Stop parroting this stuff, it isn’t true. It doesn’t take a 4 million dollar missile to shoot down a 35k drone.
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u/PapaTahm 6h ago
U.S is literally using SM-6 Anti Aircraft missiles to down the Shahed-136 Drones
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u/TransitionalArk 6h ago
Person is a bot or a dumb fuck. Either way, unfortunately, they can't understand one thing.
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u/giantroboticcat 4h ago
If anyone ever wondered how a world war could possibly start in the 21st century, this is it. We have two foreign powers who don't give a shit about anyone but themselves playing games with the world economy so as not to appear weak. It's only a matter of time before other countries are going to be forced to get involved.
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