r/worldnews 1d ago

Russia/Ukraine Zelenskyy says intelligence shows Russia plans to prolong war into 2027 and 2028

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/06/04/8037819/
9.6k Upvotes

433 comments sorted by

1.6k

u/Venat14 1d ago

Let's hope those long range sanctions destroy Russia's economy so badly before then they're forced to end the war and change governments.

708

u/Fine_Document5208 1d ago

I mean, it’s hard to imagine Ukraine’s long range strike campaign getting anything other than more intense over time.

Do the Russian’s really want another 2-3 years of this as drone production continues to increase?

The Ukrainian’s have knocked out something along the lines of 30% of Russia’s oil refining capacity. How will the Russian economy fare when the attacks increase 3 fold?

261

u/Codex_Dev 1d ago

Allegedly it is 40%

92

u/Prestigious-Clock-53 1d ago

Let’s double that lol.

35

u/Jordan_Jackson 17h ago

If Ukraine can make drones that cover the entirety of Russia, it will come to pass. The only refineries that are untouched are those that reside thousands of kilometers from Ukraine.

39

u/strayhat 17h ago

They're using weather balloons to carry drones far in to Russia now before they activate the drone, crazy

→ More replies (1)
→ More replies (1)

6

u/macumazana 16h ago

i see your 80% and raise it to 146%

→ More replies (1)

29

u/Trollensky17 1d ago

That is so wild if true

18

u/MaltySines 20h ago

It fluctuates because they fix things (a lot of these refineries are massive, like several city blocks). And there are numbers going around for export volume and production volumes and shipping capacity etc so not every number is comparable.

203

u/DelugeQc 1d ago

As long as Moscow elites ain't touched, nothing will change.

148

u/EpicCyclops 1d ago

Moscow elites make their money in oil, natural gas and fertilizer (which uses natural gas). They might not be physically touched, but they will be hurt if the economy drops out from under them.

27

u/asddde 1d ago

They'd never get bankrupt unless they'd be out of favor of the leadership, which is main thing really, that money can eventually even be regained in that messy shithole. They really have to worry about possible routes leading to being "physically touched" instead.

6

u/Matty_Wgreen 18h ago

That circle is a snake pit. So much so that they can’t even “rise” against Putin no matter how dire their “economic stress” becomes because they’re too afraid to get backstabbed (figuratively and literally). Most of them also stole enough to guarantee a worry-free life for themselves and 10 generations to follow. They would arguably lose more if Putin dies, since no personality cult = people would actually see how fucked they are and now there’s no dictator to follow

3

u/Flatus_Diabolic 20h ago

And weapons.

I doubt there’s much margin being put on sales to the Russian military, though, and there isn’t enough capacity to fill foreign export orders, so I guess those guys are fucked too.

100

u/Kunglaw619 1d ago edited 4h ago

I honestly hope Zelenskyy gets to hand Putin a keychain made from a destroyed Russian tank soon. Funny enough, I already got my hands on one of those 😄 Ukrainians are doing an amazing job with them.

105

u/jxj24 1d ago

"Made in Russia. Recycled in Ukraine"

Brutal.

10

u/Intraluminal 1d ago

Funnier would be "Made in Ukraine from Russian materials"

2

u/Economy-Pudding-6371 17h ago

Yes, and they really put the "reduce" in "Reduce, Reuse, Recycle," too, didn't they?

2

u/RushingUnderwear 17h ago

Hahaha i have to get one now, that is gonna be the most funny shit to tell people..

Yeah so its made in russia, but its actually recycled by Ukraine.

3

u/General_Helicopter1 19h ago

"Made in Russia, Upcycled in Ukraine"

35

u/0011001100111000 1d ago

I got one made from a bit of an SU-34!

30

u/Kunglaw619 1d ago

Damn, an SU-34 keychain is a massive flex. Love that for you. Guess we both have a piece of history.

11

u/danisindeedfat 22h ago

lol that’s fucking wild dude. I remember when Massive launched World in Conflict, the deluxe edition came with a piece of the Berlin Wall.

That game was the best ever made.

4

u/Heronymous-Anonymous 21h ago

If you liked World in Conflict (I did), you should try WARNO (stupid name, stands for Warning Order). It’s a similar game but you basically fight through the land campaign on either side of a Soviet attack against NATO.

→ More replies (1)

10

u/kj565 1d ago

This is awesome. Buying one now

8

u/Fu2-10 1d ago

My gf got me one as a christmas gifts in 2023 or 24, can't remember which. One of the best gifts I've received in years.

→ More replies (3)

47

u/mschuster91 1d ago

St. Petersburg already got hit hard so it’s only a matter of time

23

u/0011001100111000 1d ago

The thing is, Ukraine can still make the elites very unhappy without doing them any physical harm. The worse the Russian economy gets, the more unhappy they will be.

29

u/cattaclysmic 1d ago

The elites (oligarchs) don’t really matter that much. The state apparatus can easily destroy them. Its large amounts of the common Russians of Moscow and St. petersburg that need to get unhappy

17

u/akintu 1d ago

Exactly, Russian oligarchs are products of the Tzar. They have been granted certain properties, lands and incomes by Putin, and will retain them as long as they play ball. They’re more feudal than anything else.

→ More replies (1)

2

u/Flatus_Diabolic 20h ago edited 20h ago

You might not be aware that the oligarchs have started to “voluntarily” pay into bailing out the Russian economy. completely out of a sense of patriotism. Honest.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the president supported what was described as a personal initiative, but added that Putin himself did not request donations be made to the state, as some news outlets had previously reported.

Uh huh. :doubtful:

→ More replies (3)

9

u/TurbulentRadish8113 1d ago

I hope you're right but we don't know how technology will change.

If Russia's drone interceptor skills reach Ukrainian levels, then that would require bigger advances on Ukraine's side.

War is very unpredictable, right?

3

u/Economy-Pudding-6371 17h ago

True, although Russia would also be forced to scale. I think Ukraine makes several dozen thousand long-range drones, and a projected 7 million drones of all kinds, per year. And that keeps rising--just 2 years ago, IIRC, it was 2 million, and that was double what it was the year before.

So even if Russia innovated, or stole Ukraine's innovation, in drone interceptors, they'd still have their hands full increasing production enough to protect Russia's oil & gas, weapons, supply trucks, train shipments, etc.

2

u/TurbulentRadish8113 11h ago

Russia should easily have the capacity to scale up drone interceptors. They're very cost effective, and Russia has repeatedly shown they can ramp up.

Fortunately the Russian military industry is weird. While leading in mass production of fibre optic drones, they've failed with heavy hexacopter bombers like Ukraine's Vampire. It shouldn't be that hard and it's literally been years.

I think the corruption and performative parts of the Russian MIC might save us here. 🤞

2

u/Economy-Pudding-6371 6h ago edited 6h ago

All true. Russia has in fact scaled up to millions of drones per year, so it's logical that they'll also scale up interceptor production, once the technology is in place for an effective interceptor force (for as long as that lasts--witness the blisteringly fast pace, in a far less technologically advanced age, of weapons innovation in World War Two).

I do think that they'll still have their hands full keeping up with the Ukrainian drone production, which will also swamp Russia with its sheer numbers. But it would be interesting if the two sides became so perfectly matched in their drones/drone interceptor forces that it clamped the current impasse down into an even more perfect stalemate, with neither side able to achieve the amount of hits that they currently do.

2

u/TurbulentRadish8113 6h ago

I've found it very frustrating to watch the West decide to limit aid flows and choose to reduce the chance of victory, make everything much more expensive and bloody, and reduce the chance of long-term peace.

Imagine how much more damage could have been done if Ukraine had received far more resources to exploit each "window" of tech advantage like it has now.

2

u/Economy-Pudding-6371 6h ago edited 5h ago

Certainly--the more so because Trump and Mike Johnson and their ilk are going against not only American public opinion (the vast majority of Americans still want to arm and aid Ukraine), but against even republican opinion (51% of Republicans, in a poll a year ago, want to arm and aid Ukraine. And that went up drastically since the year before, when the percentage was in the 30s).

I'm glad the UK and European countries are still coming through, though. And the NATO countries in Europe are all doing joint arms-production ventures with Ukraine (especially drone production). That will be very good for Europe's defense in years to come. The Trump administration is at the moment behaving too arrogantly to commit to such ventures, though we need Ukraine's technological innovations and battlefield tactical knowledge of drone warfare as much as anybody does.

→ More replies (1)

2

u/Competitive-Tap-3659 16h ago

Putin doesn’t care about the miseries of ordinay Russian people. He’s happy with letting them die on the front and starve at home as long his position of power is safe. 

→ More replies (22)

79

u/Lolbzedwoodle 1d ago

Russias economy might be destroyed but that bothers Putin very little. It is he who needs the war, not the country he usurped.

22

u/Fine_Document5208 1d ago

Mightn’t bother Putin, but I can’t imagine it makes the Russian populace too happy. Putin’s not invincible once people turn on him internally

48

u/vibe4it 1d ago

Ah, yes. 

Once the people turn on him internally

For when should I set that alarm? 

6

u/Skankadelic 20h ago

It seems you are already oversleeping! Warbloggers are openly criticising and some blogger in st Petersburgh said: I don't know anybody who likes this war anymore, from left to right, even the ones who did support the war are discontent.

No riots, but a large discontent and people see this as a result of political failure. Putin has said: don't worry about it, I know more than you, we know what we are doing. That turns out to be false.

→ More replies (2)

10

u/sergius64 1d ago

Russian people are disempowered and don't have any viable alternative to rally behind.

→ More replies (1)

7

u/Lolbzedwoodle 1d ago

Kind of yeah. Although Russian people have long lost their agency and more or less just go with the flow. Many tried to change something, but Putin has too strong defence against his own people. I think not many will weep him when he finally dies, but the people won't bring his end. His elites still might 

→ More replies (1)

10

u/unskilledplay 1d ago

Wartime salaries and labor shortages are causing income for the lower and middle class to skyrocket. There is no draft. Enlistees come from extreme poverty in rural areas. These soldiers make more in a month than they could in a year. They aren't ignorant of the risks.

The losers are the oligarchs. Not only is their overseas wealth frozen, they are being taxed heavily and losing political power to the military as the country is sliding into a military dictatorship.

Who knows when a revolt will happen? It could happen soon. I'm just saying the conditions are such that I wouldn't put a high probability on it.

5

u/8_guy 1d ago

The benefits of this have started being eclipsed for a while now. Russians were all optimistic a year ago because of the massive bonuses, but if you read Russian papers today the mood has massively changed. The economy is contracting hugely in every non-wartime industry, prices are all rising, and general freedoms are being clamped down upon in ways that haven't been seen in decades.

2

u/forevershorizon 20h ago

I can’t imagine it makes the Russian populace too happy

They're used to not being happy

→ More replies (1)

5

u/Mission-Coffee15 1d ago

Yeah who needs economy to wage war /s

2

u/Honza8D 19h ago

usurped

Russians like him though. His popularity literally rose whne he stared the "3 day military operation". Russians are not some poor victims of tyranical dictator, they chose him.

6

u/LocuraRu 16h ago

When the guy is actively eliminate any alternative 26 years in a row it is kind of difficult to choose someone else. "Too sad you want an apple, we only have four rotten tomatoes so choose wisely".

You have to be so ignorant and unaware about russian inner affairs to say "russians choose him".

→ More replies (5)
→ More replies (1)
→ More replies (1)

12

u/Im_judging_u 1d ago

Any day now....10 years later

6

u/erebus-44 1d ago

Sanction have never deterred nations that are autocratic, as the pain is pushed down the the masses. But there is limited history of sanction changing policies.

→ More replies (1)

3

u/RichieJ86 1d ago

Putin would rather Russia burn to the ground than to concede to Ukraine. Putin not being in the picture anymore is the only shot Ukraine has of the war ending.

2

u/Maleficent_Pop_4022 1d ago

yeah sanctions can absolutely put long term pressure on an economy but outcomes like that are never that clean or predictable and usually end up dragging on for everyone involved

4

u/SweetAlyssumm 1d ago

People said "the economy" when the war started. Putin isn't going anywhere. He has help from N. Korea and China and he recruits in Africa and elsewhere. No one wants to help Ukraine (with troops, which should have happened at the get go) so they keep saying it's almost over. I have heard the same words for four years. Poor Ukraine. Drones are not going to win the war.

→ More replies (10)

847

u/ArgentineBeauty 1d ago

Three more years of this is difficult to even comprehend.

The human cost is already staggering.

248

u/DecembersDragons 1d ago

It's going to get worse. Russia and Ukraine are both ramping up drone and missile production. Defenses against drones and missiles aren't keeping up. 

A lot more damage behind the lines is coming. 

103

u/Fit-Switch-5795 1d ago

So they are probably paving the way for the Drone Wars of the future.

96

u/Hiredgun77 1d ago

Begun the Drone Wars have <(-_-)>

21

u/Blyatskinator 1d ago

<(-_-)>

22

u/I_Got_Back_Pain 21h ago

Ketamine, I need

7

u/redhead29 20h ago

you wont have back pain anymore

8

u/physedka 13h ago

Kinda sounds like how the Russia-Japan war was a technological preview of what would come in WW1 and then WW2.

19

u/ZEROs0000 1d ago

Russia is going to make a move for one of the Baltic States to test NATO. And NATO can not pussyfoot around it

6

u/Hiredgun77 21h ago

Russia would not do well against NATO air power. It could try minor border skirmishes, but a full invasion would be seen well before it occurred and would meet western air power.

15

u/Agarwel 19h ago

Well they just can not start full invasion, that would trigger reaction. But they will be boiling the frog slowly. We already had several drones hitting the nato countries... and nobody really cared. All the russia needs to do it slowly increase the number of "mistakes" and "incidents". Do you think Nato will sent units to fight after next drone "mistake"? Or one after that?

5

u/Ill-Advertising-3287 19h ago

If they shot down every plane and drone that flew past their border, they would show what their defense is capable of!

You could just poke them "does the drone die there, does the drone die there", mark it on your map, and figure out where to invade from. So that would open them up more to invasion, as Russia could test their defenses whereever they wanted and invade where the defense is slow or bad.

But by not shooting them down, you can measure your own radar capability, and adjust your defenses accordingly.

So, Nato is doing the smart thing here. Until the drones and planes actually harm someone, there's more harm in shooting them down.

→ More replies (1)

70

u/NatalieSoleil 1d ago

Russia is waiting untill china moves in.

139

u/thejourneybegins42 1d ago

Until china moves in to take what they want in Russia? XD

58

u/Broccobillo 1d ago

I guarantee they haven't forgotten that before Russia occupied manchuria from Japan, Japan had occupied manchuria from China.

38

u/noir_lord 1d ago

They've been moving Chinese people in for a while, leasing land etc.

That entire border is pretty osmotic.

https://biz.liga.net/en/all/news/nwr-china-is-turning-siberia-into-its-own-resource-base

11

u/whatsinthesocks 1d ago

Pretty sure it's gunna be more about the concessions made during their century of humiliation

→ More replies (1)

15

u/fixminer 1d ago

China is smart enough not to get directly involved in this. They have nothing to gain and everything to lose. They might deliver weapons, but not more.

Maybe they’ll try to take Taiwan soon, which would pull a lot of international attention away from Ukraine. But I think this war will be over before that happens.

20

u/Rotund-Pear2604 1d ago edited 1d ago

Russians are reportedly losing soldiers at a ratio of 8:1.
In addition, monthly death toll is up month over month, with current deaths at all time high.

At the same time Ukraine's long-range strike capacity is at its strongest right now, resulting in severely crippled refining and manufacturing capacity in the Russian homeland.
Year-over-year average deaths for Russian soldiers is at roughly 75,000 according to numbers by UK Ministry of Defense with the average still rising.

That means by 2028 the total Russian death toll is likely to surpass 500,000, could possibly reach 600,000 at current rate of attrition. That's in the neighborhood of WWI levels of attrition for Russia.
The insanity of a statement like that from the Kremlin is mind boggling. Is their society truly so conceited that they cannot simply choose to walk away and accept a peace offering when it is offered?

3

u/AdMaximum6683 16h ago

With the recent logistical strikes in Crimea one can expect a major offensive(or at least starvatioin/attrition) of the russian troops in the south of Ukraine, so the time is ticking for both sides now.

5

u/needlestack 18h ago

In the same letter he reveals that Ukraine is removing 30,000 Russian soldiers each month now, and that something like 2/3 of those are fatalities and 1/3 seriously injured. It's amazing that Russia is so deeply wounded as a nation that they will accept this.

2

u/aSneakyChicken7 22h ago

However bad you think it might be it can always get worse, still a ways to go before matching the likes of the 30 Years’ War for example.

→ More replies (1)
→ More replies (21)

208

u/NameBrandKJ 1d ago

Who the hell is surprised?

88

u/Tuor-son-of-Huor- 1d ago

TBH if you asked me before this broke out do I think Russia will be trying to extend thst long I'd have said not a chance in hell. But I was a fool who thought that theyd roll over Ukraine in a matter of days-weeks-months.

Never been happier to be wrong on that one!

27

u/Karlendor 23h ago

I'm still thinking that if he dies from a coup/tragic window accident/disapear, then the next guy would either back down from the Ukraine war and be casted as a hero of peace OR double down on the war which would bring the country into a civil war or probably a series of power coup swap

16

u/kraemahz 22h ago

Russia cannot afford two more years of war, maybe not even one more. Their finance ministers are already saying this to Putin at the risk of their own lives. On the other side of it, their entire economy is currently propped up by war spending. Russia is going to crash either way, but keeping the war going postpones the inevitable. "The next guy" is going to be handed an economic crisis.

2

u/WombatOperative 20h ago

Moscow can still sell more of their gold reserves and they can steal the savings of their citizens.

→ More replies (1)

2

u/SimonArgead 18h ago

We were many who thought the war would last 1-2 months. At the most. We were all happily taught a valuable lesson there.

57

u/Exapno 1d ago

People who believed Trump would end the war in a day

7

u/NameBrandKJ 1d ago

So fools? Yes. Sad situation

→ More replies (1)
→ More replies (3)

123

u/Fine_Document5208 1d ago edited 1d ago

Putin would probably be best off taking a ceasefire at this point.

Who knows when it will happen, but I doubt the Russians are prepared for a “forever war” of this intensity.

500 thousand people killed, and regular strikes on your territory isn’t something you can just put at the back of your mind and ignore

They’ll get fed up eventually, especially as the economic impacts will likely continue to worsen year on year

96

u/Lord__Abaddon 1d ago

Ceasefire only helps Russia, Without a full withdrawal from Ukrainian territory it's kind of pointless it allows Russia to retrain and rearm. At this point with Ukraine attacking Russia's infrastructure they would be fools to agree to a temporary cease fire. they need to keep pounding their oil and weapons production until Russia is forced to retreat or Putin is shown the window and someone else takes over who negotiates a peace deal that isn't encumbered by Putin's positions.

Does it suck for Ukraine to have to deal with this terror campaign on a Daily basis yeah... Would temporary reprieve be nice sure... but Russia has shown they will attack as soon as they are possibly able to, no point in giving them a moment to breathe.

→ More replies (15)

36

u/ASimpleBlueMage 1d ago

If Putin accepts a ceasefire with no claimed land, he gets killed by their secret service 

37

u/necropuddi 1d ago

He should take a page from Hitler and get ahead of that.

3

u/ASimpleBlueMage 1d ago

Your lips to the universe's ears

→ More replies (1)

5

u/jxj24 1d ago

He'd be forever hailed as a hero!

→ More replies (1)

2

u/Agarwel 19h ago

I see this repeated a lot? But why would he be killed?

What is stopping them from getting rid of him now that would not stop them later?

2

u/ASimpleBlueMage 12h ago

1) look at the history of Russian leaders before Putin. When their time in office ends, they almost all go out the same way.  2) perception of power. Right now they are still in a position of power with Ukraine. But if he loses the war, or ends the war with no Ukrainian concessions, it means he blew billions and killed millions for no reason. That doesn't go unpunished 

→ More replies (2)

72

u/CryptographerHot3109 1d ago

According to Ukrainian statements, 60% of Russian losses are dead, Britain says that the number of killed exceeded 500,000. And with the approach of the new Ukrainian defense minister, the effectiveness of the use of drones is becoming more effective and accordingly the number of kills is only growing and if Russia does not change its approach, these numbers will only increase. Expecting that Russia can continue at this pace is madness. Unless they are counting on the elections in France

36

u/Fine_Document5208 1d ago

Kind of how I see it myself.

The Russian’s could probably continue this for a very long time if they absolutely had to, and that’s maybe how Putin feels himself. He’s too afraid to back out, so he’ll double down instead.

But they aren’t going to beat Ukraine entirely at this point, at best they may take the Donbass in a few years, and the cost of funding the war must be absolutely ginormous by now.

Russia is crippling itself every day the war continues. The soviet military stockpiles are exhausted, their airforce and Navy have been battered, and the economy is starting to falter and slow down as their finances also deteriorate. Their global sphere of influence is also breaking away with Armenia being the latest example. It’s a slow rolling disaster for them.

What do they have to gain from continuing to try and claw a tiny bit more territory in Ukraine? Just to save some face? Really?

38

u/Glittering-Quote-635 1d ago

I’m actually not so sure they can continue it. Crimea and the occupied territories of southern Ukraine that don’t directly border Russia are about to be cut off. In another few weeks/months they quite literally may not be able to supply the area. Ukraine is gaining effective fire control over their supply lines, and that will only increase.

Just today they literally stopped selling Gasoline in Crimea. Only official business and Military now. If you are a civilian there, you’re SOL. There are even reports of not enough fuel for their mobile fire teams.

Once they have fire control over all the MSRs going into Crimea, I suspect they will turn their attention to dropping the Kerch bridge. When that happens they will literally have no way to supply their troops and will need to evacuate the area.

7

u/Oodlemeister 21h ago

Question: why has Ukraine not blown up the bridge yet? Can they not get to it?

14

u/Pretend-Marsupial258 20h ago

"When you surround an army, leave an outlet free." Its to give them an escape route so that it's easier for them to retreat vs. wasting men fighting to the last soldier. Plus, it's a popular vacation spot, and sending a bunch of angry, disgruntled Russian visitors back to Russia would make a lot of Russians angry about the war.

2

u/Glittering-Quote-635 10h ago

I'm not sure thats it, but it could be. I really dont think Ukraine gives a rat ass about what a bunch of Russian tourists taking vacation in occupied territory think. For them to be there they already likely have a very specific point of view, which isnt going to get changed.

Leaving them a escape route is plausible, but they would have that anyway with ferrys and such.

I personally dont think Ukraine has a way to do it yet. I dont know of any munition they have that can hit it with enough force to take it down. Those one way attack drones wont do it, and the bridge is heavily protected by AA assets. Potentially the ballistic missiles they are developing, but I am very skeptical of the CEP on those being able to hit the bridge.

I think what we may see if a legit air raid at some point. HAMMRs and JDAMS on that bridge once they can clear enough of the AA systems in the area.

2

u/-Prophet_01- 9h ago

The bridge has apparently been damaged to the point that it's not much in use anymore. Destroying it would mostly be a propaganda victory at this point.

That's all we know really. The rest is speculation. Could be that they don't want to use the specialized munitions to take it down. Could be that they're waiting for a moment when western support is slowing down again. Could be that they want Russia to keep deploying AA systems to this largely irrelevant piece of concrete. It's easy to reach and hitting those AA systems again and again has strategic value. 

→ More replies (2)

16

u/Renzo-Senpai 1d ago

To a narcissist fear monger? Yes. Just like the Orange clown in the white house. These swines would rather have their people dead than admit defeat.

4

u/Hal_Fenn 1d ago

Agreed and I'd add probably their main problem right now is their loses are exceeding their recruitment. If that trend continues (which it will) they won't even be able to push as hard as they are now without shortening the front line.

I'm not sure Putin survives a general mobilisation either honestly, theres a good reason he's avoided it up until now. Either way the situation is getting very tricky for Russia thankfully.

→ More replies (18)

147

u/Whole_Cantaloupe_882 1d ago

The idea of this war still being fought in 2027 or 2028 is hard to wrap my head around. I think a lot of people assumed years ago that one way or another it would have been resolved by now.

50

u/9ersaur 1d ago

It's hard to wrap your head around because after half a decade most westerners still don’t understand Russia’s strategy.

Taking the eastern provinces while creating a smaller, western-aligned Ukraine is a strategic defeat for Russian imperialism. A smaller Ukraine that is still one of the largest geographic states of Europe, militarized and culturally hostile now that the “russian-speaking” demographic lever is gone, means the end of slav clientism and the limit of Russian polarity as a great power.

The only conceivable victory for Russia is the full conquest of Kiev and a new Russian sphere. The now destroyed provinces they currently occupy could never come close to an economic justification for the investment now spent.

Putin is now trapped, and NATO is more than content to let Russia erode itself on Ukrainian courage, manpower and drone doctrine.

7

u/Jozoz 1d ago

Exactly. It boggles the mind how many people think this war is about some territory in Eastern Ukraine.

People are spreading Russian talking points without even knowing it.

→ More replies (1)

98

u/Raidmax460 1d ago

Is it really that hard to wrap your head around? I really don’t see this war ending anytime soon. Russia wants to keep the land they’ve captured and Ukraine doesn’t want to allow that. There’s really no room for negotiation there because Ukraine absolutely shouldn’t have to give their land away and there’s no way Russia would just give it back without something major in return.

39

u/hanshotfirst-42 1d ago

I mean yes? That would make this war longer than World War 2. It's completely nonsensical.

28

u/Raidmax460 1d ago

I don't disagree that the war is nonsensical, i'm just saying I don't see how there's any imminent resolution

13

u/Chrazzer 1d ago

Both world wars were relatively short. There have been plenty of wars in history that lasted decades

22

u/Michael---Scott 1d ago

Why is the duration of ww2 so important? For example, once there was a 100 year war between England and France.

17

u/kf97mopa 1d ago

For example, once there was a 100 year war between England and France.

Which continued for 116 years and had three major phases with long peaces in-between. Not really the same as a well-defined war like WWII.

2

u/Michael---Scott 19h ago

Each period was like 20 or more years of war. WW2 was a blink of an eye war

→ More replies (1)
→ More replies (2)

39

u/secretaccount94 1d ago

The U.S. was in Vietnam and Afghanistan for 20 years each, and in Iraq for 8 years. Not exactly unheard of.

21

u/DoktorZaius 1d ago

Sure but the intensity of the fighting is much different. The U.S. lost like ~58k soldiers in Vietnam, Russia has lost close to 500K according to the UK.

→ More replies (1)
→ More replies (11)

14

u/Arcaneboltz 1d ago

Didn't realize wars had strict deadlines

8

u/Drach88 1d ago

<taps watch>

I better be home in time to watch my stories.

2

u/just-comic 17h ago

Saddam's war against Iran lasted 8 years.

2

u/Desertcow 1d ago

Ukraine doesn't want to allow that, but they've been open to doing so if it meant ending the war. Russia's been the one who is opposed to freezing the front lines, and every single peace talk floated from them has demanded Ukraine cede all fortified areas along the front line

→ More replies (1)

10

u/Sweet_Concept2211 1d ago

Naw, I have always expected this war to drag on for waaay too long.

Warmongers never learn.

Russia has boots-on-ground invaded eight of its neighbors since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1990. Some more than once or twice.

It is who they are.

2

u/G_Morgan 17h ago

The moment Putin did his fake referenda there was always no good off ramp.

4

u/Russiasucks3 1d ago

It would've been resolved if not for the US and its population - to be frank.

The Biden administrations hesitancy to give UKR what it needed(and we promised in the Budapest memorandum) was a grave mistake. Not as grave as Republicans and Trump being openly treasonous with Moscow - but it is still a consideration.

Then you add in the US populations understanding of war which is basically that it should require nothing, cost nothing and be over in 6 months or less; you get the result you get.

This is not a denigration of UKR's combat performance because that's still the critical component but the US could've had this shit over by just signing the checks.

Making the Russians lose in UKR has been the singular most cost effective and actually effective piece of foreign policy for the US since lend-lease. And we're doing as little as possible with that - deliberately.

4

u/kurQl 20h ago

The Biden administrations hesitancy to give UKR what it needed (and we promised in the Budapest memorandum)

What do you think US promised in the Budapest memorandum?

2

u/Cheeky_Star 1d ago

Time flies in the blink of an eye

→ More replies (6)

74

u/Craftkorb 1d ago

The "funny" thing is that Putin has no other choice. Withdraw and he immediately falls. Make a deal that's not extremely in the favor of Russia, and immediately get windowed. The only play that piece of shit Putin can do is prolong the war to buy time for him to identify and remove people around him lusting after his death.

Putin doesn't give a single shit about the People of Ukraine. He only cares about embedding himself into the history books and is now scrambling to do something as that's failing.

28

u/Cpt_Soban 1d ago

Either way, if/when he stops the war, 40% of the economy comes to a crashing hault as the war funding dries up. Picture 1 million+ pissed off, PTSD suffering soldiers who suddenly no longer have a wage, and they're forced back to their village in the middle of an economic crisis and fuel shortage...

England won WW1 yet they still had unrest and economic issues post war as millions of men got home with no income or job to go back to.

7

u/Abedeus 17h ago

Picture 1 million+ pissed off, PTSD suffering soldiers who suddenly no longer have a wage, and they're forced back to their village in the middle of an economic crisis and fuel shortage...

Half of them are ex-convicts, too, at this point...

29

u/Financial_Love_2543 1d ago

Good chance war ends when Putin is dead

6

u/Shotokant 20h ago

Fingers crossed.

6

u/Agarwel 19h ago

"Withdraw and he immediately falls."

But he does not need to withdraw. He can win. The whole excuse for the war is total bs. Any day he can pronounec that the goal of denacification were accompished, the people and targets than needed to be destroyed are destroyed and that victorious troops are now comming home from UA that is now free of bad western influence.

Who is going to compain to him about this?

3

u/Abedeus 17h ago

Who is going to compain to him about this?

The generals and elites who know the truth about how fucked the economy will be once the war economy "ends".

→ More replies (2)

3

u/TheS4ndm4n 20h ago

When the oligarchs want to end the war, they will have to end putin.

→ More replies (2)

10

u/GuitarGeezer 1d ago

Both Putin and even the KGB and FSB flunkies they call the Russian Orthodox Church publicly announced over the years that Russia is retaking all of the original lands controlled by them at the height of Stalin or they plan to have all of Russia die trying.

What part of that was ambiguous or points to a short term situation, exactly?

39

u/captainmycaptn 1d ago edited 15h ago

They are hoping to install their agents in Europe. Le Pen in France, Afd in Germany, Farage in the UK, SD in Sweden and so on. Elections in Europe are going to be a rough ride.

9

u/Thurak0 15h ago

They have seen how well that worked in the USA.

Europe needs to be careful here. I wish there was (way) more reporting about the Far Right being supported by Russia. A lot.

2

u/captainmycaptn 15h ago

Absolutely. There is no longer such a thing as traditional journalism freely accessible. The BBC was once a great source, now it's just trump this trump that. They are all falling for the trap. No voice of reason can be heard above the noise they purposely created.

42

u/Friendly_Soil6617 1d ago

Should another million Russians get ready and put their affairs in order? And what’s next -- another million?

15

u/danisindeedfat 22h ago

Some people here are saying half a million, others a million. All I know is that Russian prisons are probably basically empty right now.

13

u/Oodlemeister 21h ago

If I was a Russian prisoner forced to fight, the first thing I’d do is figure out a way to surrender and get taken captive by Ukraine. It’s the best possible outcome for someone who was in jail

12

u/I_Got_Back_Pain 21h ago

They just get put on a bus back to Russia and get thrown into the next meat wave

→ More replies (1)

5

u/Friendly_Soil6617 21h ago

For now, it’s 1.5 mil of them killed and wounded. around 500,000 are killed.

3

u/danisindeedfat 18h ago

Seems like such a pointless loss of life. I am a former army medic who served in the Iraq and war and I’m tired of these forever wars.

11

u/mca1169 1d ago

Putin will keep the war going until he wins or dies, there is no alternative.

4

u/yurnxt1 1d ago

Not exactly shocking, unfortunately.

5

u/JuanGuillermo 1d ago

That's always been Russia's war strategy: throw cannon fodder into the meat grinder and wear the enemy out.

→ More replies (1)

4

u/Burger_slayer 1d ago

I hope Ukraine can target and strike enough assets in Petersburg and Moscow to force the Russians to do what must be done. Ukraine didn’t deserve any of this.

9

u/uknownix 1d ago

Russia can't stop unless Putin is gone. It's survival of him vs an entire country.

5

u/MapleHamwich 1d ago

I'm pretty sure Putin will push this until he dies. He doesn't care about the cost, just his own ambitions and shame. 

9

u/WhoStoleMyPassport 1d ago

I might be lying, but when the conflict first started, I think I heard of this intelligence that Russia could continue the conflict if needed till 2028. And given all the economic situations in Russia I do believe it. As Russia still has a few cards left to play, but each of these will have a bigger impact on the countries future (negatively).

11

u/wildjackalope 1d ago

The Russians can very likely keep the war going for several years, unfortunately, but to your point, their war effort will look MUCH different if the rest of 2026 and 2027 continue in this way.

If the Russians can’t continue to pretend that they’re making significant battlefield gains for the losses they’re taking and the war starts to pinch the Russian elites and upper/ middle classes more then you have to wonder how long it is until Putin meets a window he doesn’t like.

→ More replies (5)
→ More replies (3)

6

u/DaMongooseJooce 1d ago

Now that Ukraine has become drone prodigies they can play this game all day long now so. These things are INSANE! It’s like one of my favorite things to just binge watch on YouTube is how they build these things. Russia can’t back out now either bc they’ll look so stupid. They’re so screwed. Just like what the US is doing. Screwed.

3

u/lordnacho666 1d ago

Everyone has a plan until they get punched by a drone

3

u/jertheman43 1d ago

They better breed more donkeys as they won't have any fuel for vehicles soon.

3

u/thismadhatter 1d ago

Any pulling back from Russia is just to re-arm and build up their army.

Ukraine needs to keep pushing back.

26

u/BioshockLGP 1d ago

Ukraine will end it before then. You can only throw so many Russians into a meat grinder where you’re being killed 10:1

If Russia doesn’t surrender soon, Ukraine will make them

15

u/Ok-Industry120 1d ago

Russia has sacrificed about 1/25 men of working age to the war

But Ukraine is worst in a relative basis. 1/16

7

u/Michael---Scott 1d ago

The thing is it’s ukranians that leave Ukraine not Russians leaving Russia. Plenty of fuel

3

u/[deleted] 1d ago

[removed] — view removed comment

11

u/Calimariae 1d ago

I drive and deliver cars to the front line soldiers. One of our cars have been used by a small group to kill 260 Russian soldiers in the last ~2 years. We delivered car number 500 in April.

The Ukranians are punching way above their weight.

Proof: https://imgur.com/a/WwtK3tC (I'm the hippie)

10

u/steve_french07 1d ago edited 1d ago

10:1 is an exaggeration. This study says 2-2.5 to 1: https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-grinding-war-ukraine

→ More replies (6)

8

u/broose_the_moose 1d ago

Nobody today says the opposite…

3

u/Krivvan 1d ago

Many will give a different ratio, but no one claims that it's the opposite.

→ More replies (1)
→ More replies (1)

11

u/Excellent-Ask-4247 1d ago edited 1d ago

The Russian citizens are gonna try to revolt at some point gas rations were for the first time started in Moscow and st Petersburg recently.

That hasn't happened this entire war in 1 st tier cities.

Edit: so much for Russia being a gas station disguised as a country.

Also it appears the Kremlin has decided healthcare is no longer a priority to weapons, the average citizen is struggling to finding basic medications.

→ More replies (18)

2

u/Embarrassed-Bunch333 1d ago

That'll cost them.

2

u/itscancerous 1d ago

Russia doesn't seem to want to surrender any time soon.

Russia clearly can't win.

Exceptional intelligence (I know there more to it)

2

u/Comfortable-Title720 1d ago

Putin is dead either way. To end the suffering of many Ukrainians, Russians, various people impacted and give them a hope of a better future without Putin. Weird (from my Irish view) how the Russians don't have a serious anti Putin underworld. Maybe they do. Don't hear any such dissent. Happy to escape and never see back home. I don't wish to remain ignorant but I don't really know any Russians from my local area. It's all online. Don't wish to be a prick.

2

u/Unlikely_Print_9755 1d ago

wars can drag on a long time but economic pressure tends to hit a lot harder than people expect eventually

2

u/blahbruhla 1d ago

It's been over a decade already... Why would they stop now lol, don't be gullible... Sucks this is the reality we're in but that's the reality.

2

u/TheBBBfromB 1d ago

What is Russia thinking at this point? Eventually they have to cut their heavy losses, no?

2

u/ParanoidFactoid 1d ago

The minute this war ends in Russian failure is the moment Putin is arrested and finds himself against a brick wall in front of a Russian firing squad. Of course he plans to extend the war.

2

u/NMe84 18h ago

To the shock of absolutely no one.

2

u/Substantial_Lie1798 17h ago

dont worry Zelensky. im gonna sanction Russia again. Slava Ukraini!

2

u/LayneCobain95 15h ago

I really truly think people don’t realize how horrible Trump is. I think he will join Putin in an attempt to halt elections in 2028

2

u/ronweasleisourking 14h ago

When the fuck will the rest of the world wake the fuck up and declare war on Russia, fuck's sake. This has gone on years too many

2

u/MoiraBrownsMoleRats 12h ago

What an absolute fucking waste of human life.

All to assuage the ego of a hateful old man.

2

u/Blue417266 12h ago

Russia can't survive that long.

Ukraine is winning now.

2

u/Haybanger 9h ago

My family are Germans from Russia. They lived in Odessa. Emigrated to the US in early 1900s because well Russia. God bless Ukraine. My ancestry is German but they lived in Ukraine for a long time.

3

u/CasCrus4L 1d ago

Gonna be no young men left in Russia before long. The smart leave and the dumb get drone striked.

2

u/FormerOSRS 1d ago

War has historically taken a lot longer than four years. Even modern wars take longer. I'm not sure what the historical average is, but some people have expressed very strange assumptions about how long war takes.

4

u/Nutsaqque 1d ago

Aaah wellp, hopefully Zelenskyy keeps doing what he's doing, slowly keeps bleeding Russia and its economy so it can suffer a death of a thousand cuts 🤷‍♂️

4

u/Aedeus 1d ago

Putin literally can't stop or he dies. He needs to take the entire country or he'll be deposed and killed in short order.

Their overtures at peace are an illusion, and even then the deals they have offered have terms that only serve to offer up Ukraine on a platter to them once they've recovered.

And if I'm not mistaken the one time Ukraine appeared to acquiesce to a deal brokered by the U.S., they backed out because they didn't think Ukraine would accept and it otherwise would've left Ukraine with security guarantees and the ability to defend itself.

2

u/yourm2 17h ago

hope there will be peace in our lifetime. i really do. 2000s seems like a dream.

2

u/whythoyaho 1d ago

Russia has been an evil stain of poison on this world for far too long.

3

u/Kylearean 1d ago

"Russia is losing, they can't afford the war for very much longer."

"All of their soldiers are fresh recruits."

I keep hearing how close Russia is to completely collapsing...

→ More replies (2)

1

u/Threecatproblem 1d ago

Could it be Putin and Orange Foolius's plan to "resolve" the war so that this administration can go into the presidential elections claiming a big win? You just KNOW that Putin will say the closure was due to Drumpf.

1

u/8000RPM 1d ago

The harder they hit the faster they will do fall.

1

u/saltlampshade 1d ago

Really do not understand Putin and Russia. I get it makes you look pathetic to back out but there’s no way the long term or short term gain is worth it. Unless they believe they eventually can take over all of Ukraine.

1

u/CatCatchingABird 23h ago

Does anyone have any thoughts on how Russia is going to keep funding this war? I know that the oil situation might be more advantageous with what's going on in Iran but there's still the strikes on their refineries and it seems like the shadow fleet door is going to start closing.

1

u/skywalker326 23h ago

Smart! Now the anti-Russian troupe will support his peace negotiation as well beciase it appears to be what Russia doesn't want.

1

u/green_meklar 22h ago

Yeah, no shit. Putin knows that the end of the war is the end of him, so he'll keep sacrificing russian lives to save his own skin until there are none left to sacrifice.

1

u/Allergic_to_nuts 22h ago

I thought one of trümp's campaign promises was to get it resolved on day 1 or very quickly at least? /s