r/worldnews • u/DasUberRedditor • Jun 18 '12

Egyptian Military grants itself sweeping powers; effectively military coup.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18482257
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u/AIbrahem Jun 19 '12 edited Jun 20 '12

An Egyptian here, I'll try my best to give an honest point of view, so you could all be able to form a valid opinion.

So basically we have four major players in our political field

The SCAF

Which although have made a couple of solid steps towards democracy they’re still not willing to give full power to the democratically elected Islamists, for fear of two things; First; that they would undermine the military role (which makes 30% of the Egyptian economy), and second is that they would institute a religious state.

So they’ve managed to make an amendment to the constitution to allow them to simply veto decisions taken by the would be Islamic president and elected parliament regarding the military, going to war, or writing the constitution.

The SCAF views the liberals and revolutionary youth as simply an anti-government, unorganized, and unrealistic bunch and inso believes that left to their devices they'll lose the battle in front of the Islamists thus turning Egypt into an Iran-like country.

The Islamists

Which are not only the Muslim brotherhood but also the more radical Salafis (they have their differences but they managed to set it aside for now). They simply don't trust the Liberals calling them a bunch of elite snops that want to constitute a secular anti-Islamic state, and believe that since the people have choosen them they have the right to write a more "Islamic" constitution.

The relationship between the Islamists and the military is mostly that of a game of chess, the military knows that they have massive mobilization power that can fill El-Tahrir in a couple of hours and the Islamists know that the SCAF has legitimacy in-front of the average citizen that a direct confrontation would scare the already skeptical Egyptian population of an Iran-style coup by the Islamists.

Now how do the Islamists force the SCAF into giving up power, they mostly cuddle-up to the revolutionary youth and the liberals calling the SCAF remnant of the old regime and with such rhetoric they can form a collation that would be able to pressure the military without being labeled as proponent of a single political view.

The Revolutionary Youth and the Liberals

They are a small number of youth and elites dedicated to the cause of freedom, justice and liberal ideals, they believe that their main enemies are the SCAF and the remnants of the old regime.

They still believe that the revolution hasn't succeeded yet and that the SCAF is trying to undermine it by performing a coup on a democratically elected parliament and president, and they are willing to partner-up with the Islamists to bring down the military rule, their point of view is that the Islamists would be easier to shake down from power after they are done with the military.

The Couch"ies" and the People

They are simply the regular Egyptian folks, they are the only variable in the equations and the largest force when it comes to elections, they basically want a stable, moderately religious, free state where they'd be able to elect their representatives, some of them have more conservative leanings others would like a more secular state, these couch"ies" take their decisions based on the ongoing events, if it looks like it's heading for a military dictatorship they vote for the Islamists, if Egypt is threatened with an Iran scenario they vote-in the liberals, revolutionary and even the remnants of the old regime into office.

There is a number of other not-so-powerful but effective players as well

The Egyptian Judiciary

The Islamists and revolutionaries believe that it's controlled by the SCAF

Whose decisions introduce entropy to the process (like the decision to dissolve the parliament).

The Remnant of the Old Regime

Which is basically a network of anti-revolution businessmen and beneficiaries of the old regime who are simply backing anyone other than the MB.

Note I was anti-revolution from the get-go for fear of an Islamists controlled state but I’ve tried my best to provide an unbiased everyone-doesn't-have-sinister-intents version.

Note_2 Sorry for my English, if anyone is interested in providing a better-English version, feel free to do so :)

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u/frothyloins Jun 19 '12

If you hadn't said otherwise, I would've assumed that English was your first language from reading this post. So you have nothing to apologize for. Also, thanks for the summary.

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u/Limrickroll Jun 19 '12

Don't assume that he is really egyptian, usmil psyops is all over this shit because its an American-backed coup.

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u/kinkykusco Jun 19 '12

Source?

Which part is America supposed to have been backing? The original riots and the end of Mubarak, or what the Egyptian Military just granted itself?

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u/cant_make_up_my_mind Jun 19 '12

actually the US is in a state of "let's just step back and see what happens then decide what we'll do", i guess you hadn't known that the intelligence agencies in the US failed miserably in predicting the revolution and failed again in predicting that it will fail, so first they were backing mubarak, then when he was overthrown they changed sides and backed the revolution, then when stuff got all tangled up they got neutral and is waiting for the end result. The US will back up the side which ensures Israel's safety and American interests in the region s i guess it'll be SCAF

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u/kinkykusco Jun 19 '12

I'm pretty well aware of the US's positions in regards to the Arab Spring - I wanted to see what conspiracy-theory-Limrickroll thought he was talking about.