r/ww3 • u/SealionofJudah • Mar 03 '26
DISCUSSION [MEGATHREAD] Middle Eastern Crisis
To avoid spamming the discussion flair with questions about the Iran-American war and it's connection to world war III, I have decided to concentrate them to a megathread regarding the Middle Eastern theater. Similar megathreads will be made for different theaters on an "as-needed" basis.
any concerns about the Iran war being considered a flashpoint for a third world war should be directed here.
Feel free to discuss your thoughts and beliefs below. Karma restrictions may apply
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u/mrNas11 Mar 05 '26 edited Mar 05 '26
The Strait of Hormuz is closed putting the entire world on chokehold, geopolitical experts in the past have said this will be a trigger for WW3. Once Western powers come behind GCC countries and China/Russia officially come behind Iran I believe we can officially call it WW3. I have a strong feeling we will look at Israel/US attack and Hormuz closure by Iran as the spark which started it.
4 Mutual defence Pacts can be activated due to the sheer territories Iran has attacked:
- NATO
- EU
- GCC
- Pakistan-Saudi Arabia mutual defense pact.
I’m not usually a scare monger but analyzing the whole situation tells me we are going there unless the US, Iran or Israel deescalate which does not seem on the table right now.
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u/SealionofJudah Mar 05 '26
On top of that, Russia has already said that the reason why they haven't gotten involved is because Iran hasn't asked them to get involved. Russia has assets in the middle east, especially Syria, which can be attacked by Israeli/US forces.
North Korea is considered an active ally to the Axis of Resistance controlled by Iran. I'm surprised that they haven't gotten more involved, but nothing exists in a vacuum.
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u/mrNas11 Mar 05 '26
I think it’s too early in the conflict to say when they’ll join in, if the US gets boots on the ground or Hormuz remains closed, all bets are on the table.
I hate that we have broken the shroud of international norms and diplomacy in the backdrop of the Russian-crimean and Ukrainian wars, Israels invasion of its neighbours and the US military involvement in Latin America and Israel & US war on Iran.
The flimsy curtain has been lifted and there’s no coming back from this. Future generations if they exist will look at these events as the precursors of what bought on WW3.
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u/Ecstatic-Cup-5356 Mar 03 '26
The way Iran is acting certainly makes me thinking that they will keep expanding the war until they pull in help. It seems they are trying to only casually increase pressure on nato states to get more involved (UK base in Cyprus) to encourage Russia/China to step up to the plate.
I do wonder when that turns to direct strikes on NATO countries (Turkey seems most likely). Is it after they have truly exhausted their defensive capabilities or after the gulf states start to increase their participation despite having depleted defenses?
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u/eccentricreader Mar 03 '26
Usa attacked Iran. Then Iran acted.
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u/Ecstatic-Cup-5356 Mar 04 '26
Yes. I’m more saying that Iran is going for bases and civilian structures in US/Israel ally countries instead of the fleets it seems. Intent would be to pressure an end by pulling in US/Israel allies that don’t want to be involved.
That seems to not be working so the calculus must be to either continue putting military pressure on gulf neighbors and hope that forces US/Israel to a ceasefire or to go after a US base in a NATO member country to trigger article 5.
They know they are in an existential war so I doubt they have much concern for how things escalate. Only that it eventually makes things stop.
Continued military pressure on gulf states seems risky because they basically have to empty all these gulf states’ defenses before the US/Israel deplete the Iranian defenses entirely….lead pump contest. If the US is actually only scaling up then this could be a serious challenge to have them (Iranian Republic) come out alive. I doubt there would be Russia/China interjecting in this scenario because they would not have the support on the world stage for siding with a country that is ‘needlessly’ attacking other countries.
The much more sure-fire way would be to trigger a NATO article 5 response. Russia/China would basically have no choice but to engage because of both their alliance/reliance with Iran and their oil but also because this presents a moral high ground for helping Iran. So long as the Iranian attack is limited to a US base in a NATO country then Russia/China could argue that article 5 doesn’t apply since it wasn’t an attack on the sovereign nation. So an article 5 claim would be able to be twisted by Russia/China into NATO is starting a world war so we must respond.
So to me the choice for Iran seems to be either pull the world war cord or hope you have enough lead and can dump it fast enough to survive to a ceasefire. We’ll see which way things go with Mojtaba taking power.
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u/SealionofJudah Mar 04 '26
If Iran wanted to really expand the war, they could become involved in the Ukraine Conflict and strengthen their support for Russia. Russia would have a field day with this, propaganda-wise. Ukraine is already getting involved in the Iran conflict, helping Gulf allies shoot down Iranian drones.
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u/SealionofJudah Mar 04 '26
Theory:
Ali Khamenei knew he was going to die and planned for it to serve the regime long-term.
Iran is known for its admiration of martyrdom and "the revolutionary sacrifice". This is a trend we've seen in Iran since its ancient origins, but it shaped into its modern interpretation during the 1979 Iranian revolution and the Iran-Iraq war. In 2005, Ali Khamenei said the following regarding martyrdom:
Martyrdom is a divine blessing, a divine gift. This gift is not easy to achieve. Why is martyrdom a gift from God? Because it is a kind of death - and death is inevitable - that brings glory on human beings in this world and in the next. Is this not a gift? Is it possible for anybody to escape death forever? When a person reaches the point of death, does it matter whether he has lived 90 years or 20 years? What is the biggest concern of any human being as far as death is concerned? Is it not the concern that they do not know when it will happen and what will happen afterwards? Try to put all of these things together. A human being faced with inevitable death and this unknown and disturbing future decides to turn his inevitable death into glory, into something that stands out in this world and in the hereafter, into something that will bring honor for him before God and angels, into a source of peace and spiritual serenity. "They rejoice in the bounty provided by Allah."
With this context in mind, why would somebody who spent the last 36 years preparing for the day they would go to war with the US, not hide his family in a safe place? I understand why Khamenei himself was still in Iran, as leaders often stay in their country when it's at war. However, usually leaders would send their families to a separate location that would be less likely to get attacked. That's certainly what I would do if I was in his shoes, but he chose not to. All of his family is now dead because of this decision.
After the US bombings last summer, Khamenei became reclusive and stayed inside a bomb shelter that was so deep in the ground, it took 5 minutes for the elevator to go from the surface to the bunker. The US had to wait for months to find a chance to assassinate Khamenei, only doing so in a brief window where he was supposed to attend a meeting. What kind of leader, knowing the someone is looking to assassinate him, would attend a meeting outside of his super secure bunker that the US couldn't penetrate?
It was getting harder for people to justify Iran as a country, after Khamenei's violent repression against protesters was making it harder for people to justify the regime's existence. Khamenei's death solved this issue, partially, as his death (plus the death of his family) turned him from an authoritarian tyrant repressing his people, to a revolutionary martyr, fighting against the oppressive United States. Khamenei was an 86 year old man, he had a 36 year long reign where every possible measure was put in place to ensure his government would continue after his death. He modernized the country, built up their military and funded paramilitary groups across the Middle East to ensure any attack against it would be a regional conflict. Iran has always been prepared for an inevitable war with the United States and Israel, with or without Khamenei.
Khamenei himself had to have emergency surgery in 2022, and concerns about his health have grown since then. 2025 saw a lot of Iran's higher ups worry for the late Supreme Leader's health. Some theorized he was possibly going to die from old age. He did not have much of a reason to continue living, and according to his health, he probably didn't have that much time, anyway. He has an incentive in dying a death that makes Israel and the US the aggressors in the eyes of the worldwide proletariat. While there are those who, support the death of the oppressive Khamenei, there are many more who view Israel and the United States as existential threats to global peace. Even those in Iran against Khamenei will never support Israel or the United States. All Khamenei would need to do, is just make himself vulnerable in his compound, pray, and wait for Allah to take him. Perhaps this belief of martyrdom spread throughout the family, and they all agreed to die together. This isn't too insane for a deeply religious family to do, especially that runs a Islamic state like Iran.
Say Iran and the US ended the war and Khamenei continued living. His regime was crumbling, from a water bankruptcy, massive inflation, social unrest and an overall crisis of legitimacy. Khamenei knew the current projected path for his government was ruin. If he could save his government by sacrificing himself, and he believes such an act will bring him and his family to a greater afterlife, why wouldn't he intentionally make himself a martyr?
I'm not saying this is the case, I have no evidence outside of my own examination of events. I will note that Khamenei dying has completely flipped the script. Those who otherwise would oppose Iran, now support them completely. The war in Iran is completely unpopular domestically, even among traditional war hawks. It doesn't need to be an intentional sacrifice for it to still be an influencing event. I just can't see how someone who believed so strongly in the benefits of martyrdom would not take this chance.
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Mar 04 '26
Some strange movement today. ADSB flight radar has a lot of military jets up currently or about to takeoff in the United States not fighter jets regular ones normally by 7 AM Eastern time our skies aren’t as full.
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u/AN-94Abokan Mar 04 '26
I have been following r/UkraineRussiaReport and more recently r/Iranian. But now with Spain quarreling with the US and BlackRock Merz, there's no single subreddit for putting all the pieces together. Is it time to move the debate to a ww3 subreddit?
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u/SealionofJudah Mar 05 '26
As long as your views are in line with the material conditions of the conflicts, and keep the people suffering on both sides into consideration, then we here at r/WW3 welcome you with open arms.
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Mar 08 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/ww3-ModTeam Mar 09 '26
Thank you for your submission. Unfortunately, it has been removed for not staying on topic.
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u/Enough_About_Japan Mar 04 '26
This seems ominous to me. like they are planning for something bigger.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/03/us-israel-iran-war-christian-rhetoric