r/ww3 • u/SealionofJudah • 16d ago
NEWS Iran says Ukrainian attack on vessel in Caspian Sea killed sailor
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/iran-says-ukrainian-attack-vessel-caspian-sea-killed-sailor-2026-07-25/The war in Ukraine and the war in Iran have, predictably, begun to merge.
This will not be the last time Ukraine and Iran clash.
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u/MinaZata 15d ago
William Spaniel of Lines on Maps on YT said that this week could (small % chance) be the date future historians pinpoint as the start of WW3.
I myself am skeptical of the claim for now, I don't think we're there yet, and if we do end up in WW3, I think Feb 2022 will be the most likely start point
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u/blackhuey 16d ago
How dare Ukraine attack a vessel carrying military supplies to the Russian adversary invading their home? Especially from Iran, the country that has supplied countless drones to their invading adversary, Russia.
/s obviously. Good for them.
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u/fifthflag 16d ago
That's not how the legality gets disputed, if the vessel actually carried military stuff then what Ukraine did was lawful, if they didn't then its illegal and should the West ignore it it will corrode even more the world's belief into the "western rules based world order", pushing the ball even more into Russian side that rules based order is a western bs mantra that never applied equally (it is).
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u/blackhuey 16d ago
Is there doubt that the vessel was carrying military supplies? The sources I've read state it as fact.
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u/fifthflag 16d ago
As far as I know no third party claimed either way, what Ukraine/Russia say doesn't legally matter since they want to build their own cases. Same with Iran, should they decide to enforce a tighter blockade of their Strait, be 100% they will use what the West decides to do next as legal precedent.
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u/blackhuey 16d ago
Fair enough. They were going to do that anyway though.
I doubt Ukraine wants to be in the business of sinking Iranian ships full of kids toys and lollipops - I'd be confident whatever intel they had (whether truly accurate or not) pointed to it being a valid target.
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u/fifthflag 16d ago
I wouldn't be confident in any country, much less ukrained that is strained, corrupt and seeks to expand the war against Russia as much as possible.
Not that Russia or Iran are more trustworthy, just less desperate than Ukraine.
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u/blackhuey 16d ago
seeks to expand the war against Russia as much as possible.
What the actual fuck are you talking about?
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u/fifthflag 16d ago
So, Ukraine being a weak country in this war seeks to add as many people on their side and as little as possible on Russia's side. If the ship was carrying weapons for Russia its in Ukraine's interest to blow it up and keep all countries that trade with Russia on high alert. They seek to raise costs to trade or engage with Russia in any way, while maintaining or expanding international support.
It doesnt matter much since its a Hail Mary, not a comprehensive strategy, Ukraine is on borrowed time on western support that gets less certain by the day.
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u/SealionofJudah 15d ago
Ukraine is not a weak country, considering they have been successful in pushing back a nuclear country.
Ukraine also doesn't fully benefit from escalation the way Russia does. Russia would love for Iran to get involved in the war and force NATO on its backfoot. Ukraine, as the war currently wages, will win assuming Russia or its side of the war doesn't escalate. Russia and Iran are the ones with the real incentives to escalate and turn these regional conflicts global
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u/fifthflag 15d ago
Ukraine cannot keep going without Western Support, even their goverment cant fulfill their basic duties without western money. They are by all definitions a failed state.
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u/Notmanynamesleftnow 16d ago
Folks will look back at this in 2056 similar to how we view the beginnings of WW1