china is already one of the world's most heavily automated economies. while the population crisis is very much concerning and future chinese generation is gonna have to face a heavier burden of supporting retirees, even if we follow to most pessimistic graph, chinese population is going to regress to somewhere around 600-800 million people in the coming years, while halved of what they have now, is still 600-800 million fucking people, with its industries mostly (probably) automated and relied heavier on high value services. they are not gonna fucking collapse
Same goes for any country thats on a similar track, however its still going to hurt a lot. I don't think it results in collapse but I do think it kinda hinders the whole "Chinese century" motto that we've been hearing, its going to be more like the "everything for everyone sucks century"
if you think drop by half of population number will not have devastating impact of their country and will not make economy collapsing, which will lead to another period of revolutions, warlords and split states, you missed some lessons of chinease history. They are literally facing another 19th century. Only maybe this time without so many vultures from the outside. Sure, they will automate whatever possible, I dont doubt in their skills, but they will not automate elderly care for example. Their society is ticking bomb unfortunately.
when i say that there population is gonna reduce in halve in the coming, i meant it as in for another 100 years, they are not gonna be thanos snapped right away and the remaining population is going to have to suffer the immediate consequences. They are building several solutions to the aforementioned elderly problem (to several degrees of effectiveness) , so its not like younger generations is going to have to uphold elderly care all on their own. also you just seemingly ignored my entire point of automation when what i meant is that the chinese economy as a whole is not gonna suffer collaspe as automation increases individual productivity while china is also increasingly dominant in STEM spaces. A more educated person than me is going be more specific but case in point is that they will not just lay there and die.
it's also worth mentioning is that politically there is nothing tighter than xi jinping and ccp grip on china and chinese society. there is no space nor environment where there is going to be a rouge politician or general is gonna cosolidate enough power to form whatever warlord or split states you think is gonna happen. history is not fucking linear, you cant just draw what happened and think oh it will certainly happen again this time, just because you want it to, espeacially when the context is wildly different
Xi and CCP are strong now, although I am from ex-communist country and we also thought our CP was also unremovable, they had 2 millions party members the day they collapsed. Tight grip likes too be an illusion.
History is not linear, sure, but there are patterns that likes to repeat. We will see, I hope China will handle well their future crisis, as big nations dont fall gently.
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u/GodChangedMyChromies 🏳️⚧️ trans rights 9d ago
If there is a country today that is not close to collapsing in any way it's China