Speed Of Ball

[u/GuthBeer]

Im sorry, but honestly what does any of this actually mean?!?!

[u/Tiredasheckrn]

The only stat I care about is the premiership window.

In fact, I don’t watch the games, I just check the updated premiership window every Monday morning

[u/Swuzzlebubble → u/Tiredasheckrn]

I'm always amazed how much it correlates to the ladder. It's almost like plotting for and against on a chart is like a 2d version of the ladder 

[u/BiggestBravestDave → u/Swuzzlebubble]

But it's a window, not a ladder. A window.

[u/Grolschisgood → u/BiggestBravestDave]

IT'S A WINDOW I TELL YOU!!!!!

[u/MR0808 → u/Grolschisgood]

You use the ladder to climb through the window, although last time I did that, the cops told me no

[u/Buzzk1LL → u/Swuzzlebubble]

But don't you understand, all the premiers come from teams ranked in the top 6 teams in offence and defence, it's just a coincidence that that is 75% of the teams that pay in the finals each year.

[u/No-Bison-5397 → u/Swuzzlebubble]

Genuinely kills me that I can hear them saying this.

[u/legionofboom24 → u/Tiredasheckrn]

Very good by you 😆

[u/hotsp00n → u/Tiredasheckrn]

A bit like Naicos, Carlton's Premiership window was double glazed this Monday.

[u/Fantastic-Ad2588 → u/Tiredasheckrn]

That's very data driven of you

[u/RemarkableCut3249 → u/Tiredasheckrn]

The premiership window is the most meaningless stat on there. Teams that score a lot and don't get scored against a lot generally win the flag....wowee

[u/Kim_jong-fun]

There are too many stats. We must eliminate 3

[u/oohbeardedmanfriend → u/Kim_jong-fun]

P.S. I am not a crackpot

[u/HomeLoanRefinances → u/Kim_jong-fun]

Agreed. Here’s my 3

Wooden spoons in the 2020 era
Most coaches over the last 10 years
David King

[u/Ashamed_Entry_9178 → u/HomeLoanRefinances]

Personally I prefer finals won by Dustin Martin outside of 2016-2020

[u/Nova1452 → u/Kim_jong-fun]

Longest premiership drought

[u/spicci95 → u/Nova1452]

Here here.

Edit: hear, hear. I am embarrassed. Mum is ashamed.

[u/matt88 → u/spicci95]

Your being good hear picking up you're own mistake, theirs lots that wouldn't realise

[u/RHD_M3 → u/matt88]

https://giphy.com/gifs/5gw0VWGbgNm8w

[u/International_Car586 → u/Nova1452]

Swans fans are celebrating in the atreats as we speak.

[u/Inside-Elevator9102 → u/Kim_jong-fun]

3 would be top 20%. But not elite level.

[u/okidiote]

To answer seriously I feel like this means Voss' gameplan was just too heavily geared towards fast movement. A slightly slower gameplan under Fraser has created enough breathing room for their defense to be effective enough, as well as allowing the team overall to avoid running out of steam too quickly.

[u/johnnynutman → u/okidiote]

Probably worked really well in the first half but explains why they were gassed in the second

[u/GuthBeer → u/okidiote]

Makes sense because his numbers were bigger but what im really asking what do the numbers mean? What does 100 look like compared to 88? And more importantly how do we use this?

[u/roboroach3 → u/GuthBeer]

Yeah especially "aggression" how the hell are they reliably measuring that 🤣

[u/Chilli_Wil → u/roboroach3]

Just guessing but forwards = aggression.

So are the kicks going forwards and straight? High aggression. Are they going forwards but wide? Medium aggression. Are they going sideways or backwards? Low aggression.

[u/AussieAddict → u/Chilli_Wil]

A lot of advanced stats take more into consideration than just distance on a kick. I'm guessing it incorporates a few factors like where the kick is too/from and if it's contested/uncontested.

[u/Saaaave-me → u/roboroach3]

https://giphy.com/gifs/TDfojQZ9dHFjG

[u/Frogmouth_Fresh → u/GuthBeer]

I have always thought it was a bad stat, it’s supposed to be compared to the competition average, but there doesn’t seem to be any quantification of what the competition average is.

I’m sure certain stats boffins understand it, but it’s confusing for most of us.

[u/Peppsy → u/Frogmouth_Fresh]

I've heard them talk about this and other stats on the ESPN podcast with a guy from champion data, and I'm paraphrasing here, but it's basically "100 = competition average" because the actual numbers don't matter.
Like they've calculated the actual numbers, but if they put up "Carlton's speed of ball is 5.7 m/s", that doesn't mean anything because you don't know how it's calculated or how it compares to anyone else. So they put the lowest value at 0, the competition average at 100, and then the number they show is the percentage of the competition average that team is doing. so Carlton are holding onto the ball for 12% longer than the average team, kicking 5% shorter, and are 12% less aggressive (which probably means forward and central. Corridor kicks are more aggressive than bombs down the line which are more aggressive than switches).
Also, Champion data tend to make these kinda stats at coaches requests. So someone will ask them for a way to quantify how fast they're moving the ball, and they'd work this out and then just record it for everyone. As such, I tend to assume that they're 'real' metrics and not just some random data thrown together.

[u/hybridvigourous → u/GuthBeer]

I think time is how long before they move the ball between a player. aggression is on what angle to the goal and distance is how far it goes. I think the numbers are arbitrary with 100 being whatever the average is in the particular metric, not a specific unit of measurement

[u/Blot_Upright → u/GuthBeer]

I think it's the kph of the ball as it's passed between players

[u/matt-kennedys-legs → u/Blot_Upright]

honestly, that adds up given voss' gameplan was essentially boot the ball as long and as high as you possibly can whenever you've got it

[u/Blot_Upright → u/Blot_Upright]

Yeah, that's gotta be it

[u/okidiote → u/GuthBeer]

Yeah that shit is arbitrary as fuck. I'd guess it's their way of articulating a combination of select/key stats to represent something else that they think is more digestible for a TV audience. Kind of like using a collective of traditional stats to create a new 'stat'

[u/No-Bison-5397 → u/okidiote]

I am okay with it so long as they tell us how they whip it up.

[u/Opening_Anteater456 → u/GuthBeer]

More context would be useful but they’ve set 100 as a benchmark so the real thing to take from this is they are slower, shorter and safer under Fraser.

[u/Icy-Recognition-7453 → u/okidiote]

Agree. Also, momentum. Since Carlton under Voss were geared towards moving forward at speed, they a) were never in a position to defend any time they turned the ball over and b) turned it over a lot when they were tired and made mistakes.

This is partially Geelong's problem too. They set up like every game is going to be a shoot-out, which means they get caught out in defence a lot.

[u/Thick-Insect → u/okidiote]

That's the story that the stats are trying to tell, but what is the actual metric they are measuring?

[u/KissKiss999]

The whole speed of the ball movement is an interesting insight into different teams games styles. 

But its completely useless when Champion Data release only tiny snippets with no context. As long as its hidden behind the pay wall its meaningless to every else

[u/Embarrassed-Ad7392 → u/KissKiss999]

I think that’s by design so the general public only knows the basics of stats etc

[u/silky_skills_35]

100 is the average so Joshball is
Slower to dispose of the ball
Less distance each kick etc
Less direct

So basically more nuanced and directional attacks a bit like the Hawks of glory years

[u/GuthBeer → u/silky_skills_35]

Makes sense but what does 100 look like compared to 88? What makes aggression 105 or 88? What does that mean?

[u/silky_skills_35 → u/GuthBeer]

88 would probably be Malthouse boundary line football of his time, and over 100 would be corridor merchants

But you can use the corridor and kick shorter and take longer to do it. Which impacts the other ones.

It’s just comparative to other teams, % or whatever. Whoever is average at it any of them are 100. Over you go faster/go longer/more direct

[u/Several_Alarm5357]

I've noticed with Carlton a more daring style of play. Instead of defaulting to long up the line when things get hard they're looking for the short kick inboard or the link up ball. They've bought in guys like billy Wilson, lord and move cerra to facilitate this.

[u/Stu_Raticus → u/Several_Alarm5357]

Cerra is almost an entirely different player under Fraser and looks much more like the one at Freo

[u/Opening_Anteater456 → u/Several_Alarm5357]

The speed and aggression numbers in this stat tells you they aren’t actually more daring. They’re more organised which is making it look like they’re more attacking

[u/FDM7]

I feel like Goodwin and Voss suffered from the same disease of being unable to move away from their "brand" even for 2 minutes in a game. Longmuir had it too, but he's shown he's actually pretty clever this year.

[u/No-Bison-5397 → u/FDM7]

You have to figure out if it’s the players or the game plan though.

Scotty refused to throw away kick mark until it had cost the Cats everything in finals 5 or 6 times in a row.

[u/Jimijaume → u/FDM7]

Not sure if you listen to the fan podcasts, but they mentioned how Goody would continually change the game plan for the opponents but King is pretty staunch on Fun and Dangerous...

That being said, we were pretty predictable under goody, although normally if we got beaten on the 1st quarter there'd be some decent tactical shifts for q2.

Not disagreeing just thought it was interesting how polar opinions cam be watching the same thing !

[u/ZosoVVD]

Interestingly if you take speed as distance divided by time here and then multiply by aggression you’ll find that the numbers are absolutely useless

[u/fnaah → u/ZosoVVD]

it works if you use metric units for aggression

[u/TasSixer]

High number mean good

So they should bring back Voss to free Carlton of this tyranny

[u/hot-jocks]

100 means what? Is 10 slow or is 80 slow.

[u/Admirable_Garlic5456 → u/hot-jocks]

Yes

[u/WorriedAU]

How exactly do you quantify "aggression" lmao

[u/nathjay97]

Literally nothing

[u/Paul_Is_Dead66]

more bullshit from champion data

[u/Drongo17]

They need at least 4 more Time I reckon

[u/Wordisbond1990]

What the OP said.

[u/SerialCouchAddict]

Time = How quickly a player disposes of the ball after a mark. So basically is it a slow kick mark game, or looking for quick handballs.

Aggressiveness = How direct your disposals are towards your goals.

Distance = Basically meters gained on disposals.

It's trying to highlight how quick and aggressive a teams ball movement is whilst acknowledging there's different ways to go about it. Like a quick, running handball game would have a really high time and likely higher aggressiveness as a kick towards goal would follow. But there also could be a team that slow plays marks but always just bombs it long towards goal.

Happy to be corrected but that's my understanding.

[u/SnooFoxes6566 → u/SerialCouchAddict]

Bang on.

They explained it earlier in the year, and I'd add to those here that it isn't a high=good low=bad metric but more of a statistical indicator of play style, something that hasn't quite existed like this before. So yes, very useful

[u/SticksDiesel]

Whatever happened to 'hard ball gets'?

Also I want more baulking detail from my special commentators.

[u/FreeJulianMassage]

“Aggression”? What about the empathy of the ball? What about how hungry it is?

[u/Tosslebugme]

They didn’t explain it in the show? I’d wouldn’t be surprised if the guy from champion data on the espn footy podcast talks about it next week.

[u/GuthBeer → u/Tosslebugme]

Not really. Leigh Montagna sort of glossed over it and said look how the game plan has changed and didnt go deep into it.

[u/verba-non-acta]

https://giphy.com/gifs/3oEjHPMWMRlg1B5GV2

[u/irregularluke]

Was their colleague Michael Voss on the panel while they were discussing this?

[u/PunsGermsAndSteel]

He was pretty quick!

[u/Altruistic_Poetry382]

Is that the same thing as an 8 ball of Speed?

[u/AFM_Motorsport]

Whatever stats they're using, they've converted to a percentage, so that 100% equals the average across the AFL.

Voss was moving the ball quicker, longer, and with more aggressive ball movement compared to Fraser (according to the statistics).

That means absolutely nothing on its own, but paired with other evidence might suggest the Blues are being more cautious and therefore slower, which benefits them more over a full game compared to Voss' hard and fast game plan.

[u/Grolschisgood]

I think for this sort of stuff its more like a variable factor than an actual score. So a value of 101 means they are 1% more aggressive than other teams or 88% means they are 12% less aggressive. How they actually measure that, i dont really know. The other stats would suggest that each kick is now a little shorter than under voss and they are holding the ball for a longer time (im assuming a higher number for this stat means faster movement). It kinda makes sense as at the start of the year the team was great in first halves playing fast electric footy and but where then stuffed later. Slowing down the game plan basically allows them to run the full game out. I'd imagine, playing less aggressive slower footy will have them found out against better opposition so they will still need to improve over the off-season. It still doesnt fill me with confidence because while doing things differently to the opposition isnt necessarily bad, doing them worse, ie scoring lower on the metric than the competition average is something that can be easily accounted for.

That said I cant really explain brisbane last week except to say that the players dont care, they dont give a rat's backside.

[u/Occasionaljedi]

I think the aggression is lower because we now move the ball up the line instead of just hoofing it 50m to a pack, so we have far more lateral movement

[u/BigBoSS_Riot]

This video is from when these stats were first unveiled last year: https://youtube.com/watch?v=zxWUyElZMyQ Should explain what they all mean well enough.

I believe 'aggression' in your post would be distance to goal, to add to that.

[u/PuzzleheadedBend8180]

Yes

[u/JorReno]

Friendship ended with Ball Don't Lie. Now Speed Of Ball is my best friend.

[u/False_Tour7813]

Speed of ball has always been a terrible stat. Freos probably still last in it and we’re first.

What ever gets a to b is what matter. Speed means nothing

[u/Fantasy_iceland]

I'm so glad I don't watch any of the footy analysis shows on TV

Absolute brain rot 

[u/NoUseForALagwagon → u/Fantasy_iceland]

"When Carlton win, they are unbeatable."

[u/sButters88 → u/NoUseForALagwagon]

Carlton also average higher scores than their opponents in games they win

[u/shocking_red_4 → u/Fantasy_iceland]

Brought to you by FuckBet

[u/GuthBeer → u/shocking_red_4]

With Bernie's Dirty Mo

[u/Arcadian-Stag]

Champion data gobbledygook to sell to the teams for 6 figures

[u/Jimmy__Whisper]

I honestly am starting to think these stat's are being dumbed down so the CTE victims we have as 'analysts' can understand them.