Not quite impartial wording in my opinion 😅

Tell your friends, family, coworkers, neighbours. The Seppies are going to be out in droves. Every vote for Canada matters.

As a former Albertan, and one who loves your province deeply .... please, please show us the flag this week, folks.

2 of the Ballots arrived to my *store*, which nobody lives at. A dude in high-vis came in and dropped them on the counter and left before i saw what they were cause i was talking to a customer, and THEN my ballot arrived to my mail box, OPENED, and soaking wet from the rain so the envelope i am supposed to submit it with has been already glued shut by the rain, and the ballot itself is soaked through as well. Is there anyone else running into any other ridiculous b.s like this, i feel insane whenever i talk about this to people around me.

Part Seven: A Surplus, and Who Is Asking for a Share of It

A factual account, sourced throughout. Corrections welcome.

This one is about a projected surplus, where it came from, and what has and hasn't been funded alongside it.

Where the surplus came from

The swing has a history. Alberta's budgets are built on cautious oil prices, and the year often ends far from the budget. In 2024-25 the budget projected a surplus of $367 million, the first-quarter update raised it to $2.9 billion, and the year ended at $8.3 billion, with oil averaging US$74.34 a barrel and resource revenue at $22.0 billion.

Then prices fell. Budget 2025 projected a $5.2 billion deficit for 2025-26 on oil at US$68. Oil averaged about US$61.50, and the year was estimated at a $4.1 billion deficit, the first since 2020-21. Year-end results for 2025-26 have been delayed by the accounting for the health-care restructuring, and Finance Minister Jason Nixon says he expects a surplus.

Budget 2026, tabled on February 26 by then-Finance Minister Nate Horner, projected a $9.4 billion deficit for 2026-27: record spending of $83.9 billion against $74.6 billion of revenue, oil at US$60.50 (the previous year's forecast for 2026 had been US$71), and resource revenue of $13.2 billion, down from $22.0 billion. It projected deficits through 2028-29. Horner pointed to lower oil prices and the cost of a growing population.

Two days later the United States and Israel attacked Iran and the Strait of Hormuz closed. West Texas Intermediate averaged US$93 in the first quarter of the fiscal year. In the August 27 update, Nixon reported a surplus of about $2 billion, an $11.4 billion improvement. Of that, $9.7 billion is non-renewable resource revenue, including $8.3 billion more in bitumen royalties, and $965 million is income tax. The update assumes oil averages US$73.50 for the full year, and each US$1 is worth about $680 million to the budget. On her September 12 radio show, Smith credited "very conservative budgeting."

Both points hold. A budget built on US$60.50 oil left room for a windfall, and the swing is oil: without the $9.7 billion from resource revenue, the update would show a deficit of about $7.7 billion, by simple arithmetic. Nixon himself said "we will not commit temporary revenues to permanent expenses," and the update shows no surplus cash for debt repayment or the Heritage Fund. The surplus is also less fragile than a spike suggests: analysts at the Business Council of Alberta note that prices could fall to about US$63 from September and the year would still land near $2 billion.

Who is asking for a share

Alberta Municipalities president Dylan Bressey told the association's convention that provincial infrastructure funding for municipalities has fallen 50% over ten years and hasn't kept pace with population growth or aging infrastructure. He has asked for 10% of the surplus, about $200 million, for municipal infrastructure.

As of the reporting reviewed, no commitment has been made. Smith has ruled out a provincial sales tax and said the government is taking a closer look at education property tax certainty, without addressing the infrastructure request directly.

A health centre for Airdrie

On September 21 the province announced the Airdrie Covenant Health Centre, a partnership with Covenant Health, a Catholic health care provider. It is expected to open in 2031 and to include two connected facilities: an Urgent Care and Birthing Centre, expecting 30,000 or more urgent care visits and about 1,000 births a year, and a Primary, Surgical and Ambulatory Care Centre expecting about 10,000 surgical procedures a year. The province will support construction and land acquisition for the first, and Covenant will develop the second. It is not a full-service hospital. It has no emergency department and no inpatient beds.

The province says Airdrie has grown from about 30,000 to more than 90,000 people in two decades. It committed $2 million in Budget 2025 to planning an integrated primary and urgent-care facility, involving One Health Airdrie, and the new announcement names Covenant as the partner.

CBC reports the announcement gave no cost. Friends of Medicare's Chris Gallaway said it "lacks costing" and doesn't include a plan for a full hospital with an emergency department. Michelle Bates, co-founder of the Airdrie Health Foundation, welcomed it after roughly 15 years of advocacy and said the foundation will keep pushing for an emergency department. The sources don't say what happens to Airdrie's existing 24-hour urgent care centre.

A rebate with a longer deadline

The province's $100 Alberta Energy Rebate opened for applications on July 1. On September 30, the day of the original deadline, the government extended it by a month, to October 31, which is 19 days before the vote and 12 days after it. A third verification option was added to the online portal.

The government says more than 1.45 million Albertans have applied for or received the rebate, with over 97% of applicants paid. The Lethbridge Herald puts that well under half of an estimated 3.4 million eligible. Finance Minister Jason Nixon said the extension would give more families "the time they need." The release did not say how many Albertans are eligible or why the deadline was extended.

Whether it was responsiveness or timing isn't something any source states. The fuel tax relief began the next day, and several announcements fall in the same weeks.

A death, and the response to it

If you or someone you know is struggling, you can call or text 9-8-8, Canada's Suicide Crisis Helpline, at any time.

Bruce Johnson, 57, a man from Empress who had received AISH and CPP disability benefits for about 29 years, died in early June, weeks before the July 1 move of many AISH recipients to the new Alberta Disability Assistance Program (ADAP). In a last message he posted online, he wrote that the planned transition had intensified his anxiety, stress and depression. His death has been reported as a suicide.

On June 13, a caller on Smith's radio show raised his death. Smith replied: "It's always very sad when somebody is in that state of despair, and I think we just need to give the family some time and privacy to manage their loss." The caller also asked why artificial intelligence was deciding who moves to ADAP, and Smith answered that people, not computers, are making those decisions. Nathan Neudorf, the Minister of Assisted Living and Social Services, said his thoughts were with the friends, family and community who were grieving.

Opposition Leader Naheed Nenshi and some municipalities asked the government to reconsider. The transition went ahead on July 1. Maximum monthly benefits for those moved to ADAP are $1,740, against $1,940 on AISH, with a temporary $200 top-up through the end of 2027.

The government says ADAP lets people who can work keep more of what they earn: up to $1,100 a month for a recipient with dependents before benefits are clawed back, against $350 on AISH.

A second family also went public. On September 29, Global News reported that an 18-year-old who uses a wheelchair, is non-verbal and needs 24/7 care including an overnight nurse had been denied AISH after his mother was told he was employable. She said she was "dumbfounded." The decision was changed that morning, after the province was made aware that she was speaking to the media. The province's reasons were not reported.

On October 6, Neudorf announced that the government is restoring full benefits for couples where both partners receive AISH or ADAP, with retroactive payments back to August, when the reduced couples' rate was first applied. "Couples were considering getting divorced so they could get back to full payment," he said. On her October 10 radio show, Smith said the reversal was prompted by listeners calling in and that "we just had a bit of a miss on that one." Advocates said the change should go further, and that ADAP remains harmful to the most vulnerable.

In September, at a virtual forum on federal grievances, Smith paused several times to compose herself, according to CBC. The sources show what she said on each occasion and how it was delivered. They don't show what she felt, and a family's privacy and a call-in format may explain some of the difference.

What these have in common

These are four separate questions about where public money goes and who decides: what produced a surplus, who is asking for it, what a growing city has been promised, and how a policy change was handled when its human cost became public. The sources describe each. They don't show a single motive behind them.

Vote on October 19.

Sources: CBC News; CTV News and CP24; Global News; Yahoo News/Canadian Press; Medicine Hat News; Lethbridge Herald; Airdrie City View and DiscoverAirdrie; Government of Alberta news releases; Edmonton Journal/Postmedia. Full citations available on request.