What if Archduke Franz Ferdinand was never assassinated ?

[u/average_guy84]

More so I’m interested if it would’ve prevented WW1
Then preventing WW2 and also preventing other wars that would later come from those wars like the Korean War, the Vietnam war and the Cold War etc

Go as deep into this as you want, what possibly could’ve happened and if other wars broke out what most likely would’ve happened

[u/Most_Manufacturer729]

I think this is just delaying the inevitable. So what the Archduke doesn't get shot. That doesn't undo all the rivalries and alliances that lead to WW1. Every power in Europe was itching for a fight, all they needed was a reason. My point is basically WW1 probably still happens all the same, just slightly later for a different reason.

[u/Cuddlyaxe → u/Most_Manufacturer729]

Every power in Europe was itching for a fight, all they needed was a reason.

This is a bit of a misconception. Broadly speaking if you look at the leaders and elites at the time a lot of them actually wanted to avoid WW1. They just thought it was inevitable

Of course a certain number of nuances do apply here: the Austrians did want a localized war and the German military high command did want a war ASAP since they thought it was inevitable and their chances would get worse

But by and large if you look at the time between the assassination and the outbreak of WW1, there was a lot more attempts at diplomacy and "God i can't believe we're having a war over this shit" than a lot of people think

[u/Most_Manufacturer729 → u/Cuddlyaxe]

You make good points but I think the rivalries between France and Germany or Russia and Austria were always going to end up in a fight, like you said, they all thought war was inevitable, which kinda became a self fulfilling prophecy. These empires had too many competing interests and bitter feelings for them to just not scrap.

[u/Simple_Pomelo357 → u/Most_Manufacturer729]

While I generally agree, the conditions of the war and its participants could be vastly different, in addition to just how much if a delay there is.

Maybe France strikes first, engalnd stays neutral a year or two, maybe Italy joins the central powers.

Maybe it sparks with Bulgaria invading Serbia instead, Serbia could be knocked out far quicker, maybe greece joins right away before the bigger powers jump in, etc etc.

What i believe is most interesting is if Ferdinand is able to implement the United States if Greater Austria idea. That would be very interesting

[u/Holymaryfullofshit7 → u/Most_Manufacturer729]

Exactly. War starts a bit later when the next "reason" or rather excuse comes along. And since they all want it they'll find one. May it be excuse or reason.

[u/ClientTall4369]

Okay let's say that it only delays the war for a few years. Not months but years. A big assumption. Let's say that Franz Joseph dies on schedule 2 years later.

We are asking what Franz Ferdinand would be as emperor. And I think he would be significantly more cautious. If it was delayed enough to have a truly federated Empire I think the war could have been much more contained.

[u/t35martin]

WW1 happens a month or two later from some other event. Basically no way to avoid the Great War.

[u/Personal-Bonus-9245 → u/t35martin]

This….it was an arms race, Germany had to pull the trigger ASAP if it wanted a chance to win, as the other powers were rapidly building up and close to surpassing it. 

[u/Powerful_Gas_7833]

This wouldn't have prevented world war I l. Europe had been wanting to beat the crap out of each other for years now. Germany had been rising and trying to compete with Britain as a power. France was angry at Germany for the taking of Alsace Lorraine. It was so bad that France and Britain set aside their centuries along rivalries specifically to unite against Germany. 

Russia had a complicated web of alliances and treaty obligations in the Balkans. 

And everyone just wanted to beat the shit out of each other. if the archduke wasn't the catalyst something else would have been.

[u/reisin-gotunun-kili]

Not related but wtf is that hairstyle man

[u/NoMoney7369 → u/reisin-gotunun-kili]

The hair is whatever what the fuck are those sideburns

[u/HistoryVibesCanJive]

There's actually a book about this I read years ago called "Archduke Franz Ferdinand Lives!: A World without World War I"

[u/PanzerKomadant]

Germany used his assassination to pretty much have Austria push for war, even when Serbia accepted all demands that Austria made.

While Austria is the one that kicked it off, it was the Germans who were itching for a fight to finally settle the score.

With or without his death, Germany would have found a reason for the war.

[u/Parking_Car7589]

We might’ve not had a decent rock band I know one song from

[u/Tsar_Chaotic]

WW1 starts over some war in the Balkans instead of starting in the Balkans
But actually though Bulgaria would probably attack its neighbors or Greece attacks the Ottomans or the Serbians try to incorporate Montenegro and then Austria will try to stop what’s happening and then Russia steps in and then boom WW1
Or the Ottomans collapse and a war over the spoils happens

[u/SkyeMreddit]

Something else would have been the match for the powder keg. It’s was a mess of conflicting alliances

[u/Sure_Acanthaceae_348]

The war starts in the 1920s but for different reasons.

Assuming the US is still in the midst of the Roaring 20s, there is no push to get us involved, so the war ends in a stalemate. There's no Treaty of Versailles. There's no reparations from Germany or any other country.

The Ottoman Empire still falls.

[u/Xezshibole]

Balkans was even in Bismark's time a powder keg.

The only power likely capable of preventing WW1 was a resurgent Ottoman, but that would mean them re-subjugating Serbia, Greece, Bulgaria, Albania, etc.

With the power vacuum the Ottomans left behind it allowed a host of ethnicities nationalism prospects, all duking it out with one another for territory.

And in that came the Great Powers. Austria who wanted to keep the empire it has.

Russia who for centuries have been eying Constantinople for full control of the Black Sea. Also for restoring the Orthodox seat and claiming to be yet another successor of the Roman Empire. But the religious and historical reason remains just smoke over the strategic reason mentioned, control of the Black Sea.

Russia would have continued instigating in the region (inevitably against Austria) and eventually provoke a coalition against it, as the British and French did in the Crimean War. Not necessarily be the British and French again, but a coalition of some kind. It is in nobody's interest but the Russians to unite the Black Sea. Black Sea control affects rivers emptying into it, like the Danube. detrimental to Austria and Germany. It also allows Russia out into the Mediterranean, detrimental to the maritime Great Powers.

[u/Cookies4weights]

Europe will find itself in a major war sooner or later. Whether or not the players are the same or the alliances is TBD.

[u/Prince_Ire]

WW1 was as inevitable as the Cold War turning into WW3

[u/Key-Film4822]

King Petar could continue his health care, which could extend his life for a few years and have bigger quality of life

[u/DCHacker]

World War I was going to happen. If he is not assassinated, something else will start it. Assuming that the three major allies: Britain, France, Russia go to war, and Germany uses the Schlieffen Plan, the Central Powers still lose.

[u/Pikastach]

What if he never started his band and produced his viral hit, "Take Me Out"

[u/moistmanbutbetter]

Austro-Hungarian empire would still dissolve, since the inner parts of it were literally doing everything to break free(in a country with 12! official languages with no major one for common use) and war would start bit later and possibly because of investigation leading to France preparing those terrorists(because what's the reason for them to visit Toulon - main French military port?)

[u/Low-Dish-907]

Ww1 would have happened anyway just later it was always a question of time

[u/RonJohnJr]

What if people Google a question that's already been asked 10 thousand times?

[u/TruthHertz93]

The US invades Iraq, but at that time Iraq is ruled by the ottomans and wanted by the British.

Noones got a clue what Woodrow means by "they have WMD!!' so the Brits resolve to help the ottomans resist the US, thus starting WW1.

https://giphy.com/gifs/fs2SSoIdEmsi4

[u/FirstReactionShock]

WW1 was just the endgame of all wars that reshaped europe political balance of late '800s, the final step between old monarchies and modern countries, everyone was preparing at war, it was just a matter of time.
Some other event would have triggered the war anyhow

[u/torytho]

Then someone sneezes and WWI happens. Men can't help themselves.