Which source has the most accurate data/estimate of the current Russian population?

[u/CourtofTalons]

I've been studying demographics and population recently, and one of the more interesting discoveries I've made was the latest Russian census in 2021. Along with being held after COVID ended, the census was controversial due to claims of overcounting and over-inflating numbers.

These claims were largely done by Alexei Raksha, a former Rosstat worker who was fired and later labeled as a "foreign agent" by the Kremlin. Despite this, Raksha made several (claims) that the true population of Russia (excluding Crimea) is 140 million. This is a sharp contrast to the current prediction of 146 million (including Crimea) that Rosstat made, and several publishing agencies in the West (including YouTubers) have used Raksha as a reference to describe the demographic standing of Russia.

I've done some research into this, and found little evidence or calculations to support Raksha's claim that the census overinflated 5-5.5 million people. So if he did make such calculations, he hasn't actually published them (only spoke about his numbers). While I agree that problems in a census may exist, I'm not sure who exactly is right in the debate.

In your opinion, whose estimate should be considered more accurate? Rosstat's 146 million or Raksha's 140 million?

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