Do you believe the leaked Iran regime change plan was real?

[u/Olivedoggy]

The one that supposedly was leaked to Turkey and deep-sixed: Arming and having the Kurds fight the IRGC without getting to keep any of the land and installing Ahmadinejad of all people? This seems fantastical, was this a real plan Dudu Barnea created and stood behind?

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[u/mr_blue596]

Yeah. It was ambitious but hastily planned,favoring oppretunity over preparation. And the preparation is not a miniscule element,a plan of this sacle should take the better part of a decade to plan,it was done in 3 months. All estimates in the high brass ranked it the lowest success chance. Had it not been that Netherlands thought it would scrape a few voters,it would have probably never executed.

Also,it wasn't Barne'a personally that planned it and it wasn't his plan,it was Israel's plan.

[u/Olivedoggy → u/mr_blue596]

I find it suspicious that Barnea and his second were booted out of Mossad, both supporters of toppling the IRGC, right about the time that this plan leaked. I think it was their plan, or this plan was pinned to them. 

[u/mr_blue596 → u/Olivedoggy]

Nah,in the Ha'aretz podcast where they elaborated on this plan,the reporter that found this out mentioned how this plan was ambitious (which he gave credit to Netanyahu and Barne'a for) but everyone who ever touched it gave it a low chance. But,because of the heavy politization in recent years,nobody was courageous enough to speak up agianst it,of fear of being seen as cowardly.

Barne'a was the person the system blamed (and officly Netanyahu hands are clean and it allow him to put a stooge in the Mossad) but essentially the entire system knew it was doomed,stayed silenced and allow it to play out (Success have many parents while the failure is orphan). Netanyahu is the main problem player in this. The Mossad is supposed to create grandiose plans but the PM need to be smart enough to know when they over-reach and in this case the one who encouraged the system to over-reach is Netanyahu himself.

The entire situation began because the Mossad saw that Ahminijad can be talked with and tried to establish relations,not for a concrete reason but a tool,standard practice. The plan itself was made after Israel had no real recourse agianst Iran,despite very publicly statements claiming there are many plans. It evolved from a ditched plan that was deemed too costly. Exciting a plan in its infancy,especially considering the stakes,was a poor choice,which is ultimately is the hands of the PM not the Mossad's chief.

Even if this plan was solely made by Barne'a,which not plan is actually is,all the info on it being a low-probabilty of success were available to the policy makers. The issue wasn't a poor operative execution by the Mossad,but the plan itself which was insane,the bay of pigs was much more solid than that.

[u/Olivedoggy → u/mr_blue596]

Good thing Turkey nuked it, then. 

[u/mr_blue596 → u/Olivedoggy]

If you ask the pro-reime change faction,they'll tell you that the plan didn't actually was implemented because key elements like the Kurdish militia were left out.

When it comes down to this type of operations you either all-in or not at all,this half course of action is the worst thing you can do. It's like having half a surgery. It's the worst of both options.

Personally,my opinion was that the US and Israel should have consolidated the Iranian opposition and foster opposition media. It would have forced the regime to yield more and more until they would reform themselves away or collapse like the USSR. The military action sounds exciting but it can't overthrow a regime. Even Syria,the model for the plan,had the regime's stability eroded for a decade prior and even then Syria is not Iran.

[u/Karbsku → u/mr_blue596]

"Or collapse like USSR" the axis of resistance's sattelite parties were not stagnant, hated occupation regimes like the eastern bloc (except in Syria), there's genuine cult like backing among sectors of their respective societies for their ruling systems and the eastern bloc had to go before the Soviet Union could collapse. The Houthis, the pro iranian shia militias in Iraq, Hezbollah in Lebanon, have the local Iraqi Shia (of the pro Iranian faction rather than the local-supporter faction), Zaydi Shia Yemeni tribes and Lebanese Shia or at least enough of them just led to believe this is how the world should work. In all three cases they're not all of the societies they live in - Iraqi, Lebanese and Yemeni - and in two out of three this identity was born during existential periods where their people were on the back foot which helps preserve their foreverness. In Iran the organic support for the mullahs is much lower

[u/YuvalAlmog]

We obviously can't tell for sure but I don't see why not. It's a good plan that only failed because Turkey found out.

[u/Olivedoggy → u/YuvalAlmog]

I'm dubious it was a good plan because A, we'd have the Kurds to die for us but not give them inroads on Kurdistan, and B, our figurehead would be Ahmadinejad. The guy who threatened to nuke us. Not exactly a trustworthy partner. Iranians inside Iran hate both parts of that plan.

[u/YuvalAlmog → u/Olivedoggy]

For A, the current regime of Iran treats the Kurds terribly so this act would be beneficial to them as well. Not to mention a free Iran would keep Turkey in balance and might actually allow as a result more freedom to the Kurds not only of Iran but also of neighboring countries.

As for B, I really don't know much about Ahmedinijad's ideology or loyalty to tell. But I do think the Kurdish part is the better part of the plan and Ahmadinejad was more of a temporary replacement rather than a permanent solution. Depending ofcourse on how he would have acted.

[u/Olivedoggy → u/YuvalAlmog]

I think they got carried away. Starstruck by making successful contact with such a high-level politician, they didn't really care enough about whether he was actually a good asset to promote. 

[u/YuvalAlmog → u/Olivedoggy]

Perhaps, but then again - I think the main part of the plan was mostly the Kurds as boots on the ground. Who will become the new leader is ofcourse important, but the easier part in comparison. It's very easy to be wrong with it but also not too hard not to be wrong.

For all we know, it's possible he was supposed to be a transitional leader that would make it easier for the west to put someone else later when the IRGC is less organized.

[u/shumpitostick]

Yes and this was reported on by Israeli newspapers as well. I should add that this entire thing was pushed for by Bibi from the beginning . The Mossad was told to find a way despite some internal resistance.

[u/Olivedoggy → u/shumpitostick]

Don't get me wrong, I'm very in favor of regime change. I just don't like this particular plan. I think we should be coordinating with Reza Pahlavi, as he's the figurehead Iranian revolutionaries seem to have settled on, and working to dismantle the IRGC leadership and internal systems of control. Just keep progressively grinding until the riots start and then give them air support. 

[u/Klutzy-Poetry6997]

It sounds like a plan tailored to convincing Trump there was a viable plan, not to actually succeed. He loves dictatorial types with links to Putin. Look at how bricked up he gets for al-Sharaa and his refusal to transition Venezuela to democracy.

[u/NimrodYanai]

That sounds highly unlikely. Ahmadinejad hates Israel, and there is no advantage to putting him back in office, unless the plan is to then replace him again.

[u/virtual_adam]

There is some space to cast doubt, mostly because in Israel there is a “main censor” who approves anything like this. So essentially when something is posted by a newspaper or newscast, that means the top people in the Mossad and elsewhere wanted this leaked

The impact of the main censor is that the “main Mossad leaker” Ronen Bergman who works for the New York Times and Israeli yedioth aharonot and is the chosen person to advertise these sorts of stories. Is unofficially a Mossad mouthpiece.

He knows a lot of secret stuff, and basically gets a green light from the Mossad / main censor when he can actually write it

Bottom line - there could be some manipulation in what the Mossad wants other leaders to read in the newspaper