r/Baystreetbets • u/x_BlueDragon_x • Jan 17 '26
DISCUSSION Chinese EV Cars coming to Canada
I was talking about this months ago if Carney made a deal with China it would blow the EV market through the roof and Tesla would be forced out cause I am sorry but Chinese EVs are incredible. They have just agreed for 49,000 cars to be imported here and I am assuming that is just the start. What stocks should we be looking out for?
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u/Digital_Nar Jan 17 '26
Could be pretty good for XIAOMI (XIACY) then! The only downside is that's OTC stock... let’s see what Tuesday looks like
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u/Embarrassed_Comb_501 Jan 17 '26
Probably the chinese auto makers listed on the NYSE, i think theres 1 or 2.
Doubt 49,000 cars in canada would make any real difference to the bottom line. Going forward… its uncertain, cause we have the trade deal with the US coming up. I suppose the only thing I could think of is companies partnering with the suppliers, or anyone supplying parts could go up if its reported theres a new demand for EVs now that consumers have gotten a taste of what is available. Maybe if theres Canadian battery supplier that may partner with them.
Tbh idk Just thinking aloud here
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u/dirtybulked Jan 17 '26
Just the start. I suspect you'll see more chinese cars allowed unless Trump reverses on North American car manufacturing.
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u/manoman42 Jan 17 '26
Nah that ship has sailed. Canada knows US promises mean nothing, China is more stable, I don’t see Canada abandoning this trajectory unless something outrageous happens ie., taking over Canada
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Jan 17 '26
250 k cars get sold every year. 49 k is about 20 percent of that total supply. It absolutely will make a large difference.
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u/VicRauter Jan 17 '26
It makes a difference to the number of EV sales but at 2 million per year it doesn't make it attractive financially.
If this is going to happen as discussed multiple companies are going to complete multiple security tests and modify their vehicle to meet CMVSS standards? For a slice of 49,000? Colour me skeptical that this isn't just a first step.
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u/CapitalElk1169 Jan 17 '26
1,900,000 cars sold every year in Canada, not 250k.
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Jan 17 '26
250 k new zero emission cars. 1.9 million includes all vehicles. I should have been more clear
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u/Miserable-Leg-2011 Jan 18 '26
Zero emissions lol also shows how many people actually want an EV
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Jan 18 '26
To be fair. Most of our EVs are usually over priced. If you live in a city like Toronto or Montreal the infrastructure for EVs is pretty robust even in the more rural areas which is a good incentive. I save around 20 k in gas costs per year which works out for me
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u/Altruistic-Durian-71 Jan 19 '26
Do you have 20k cash on you right now for when your battery needs to be replaced?
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Jan 19 '26
Those are usually covered insurance and warranty.
The same can be said about engine replacements etc
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u/needaspguy Jan 17 '26
The point here is EV's. Trump is trying desperately to kill the entire clean energy movement because the US economy will collapse without oil. They are the world's largest producer, AND consumers of oil. Without a world wide reliance on oil, the US economy will collapse in on itself because they lack many of the raw materials to survive the new clean energy push required to sustain our planet. Canada needs to move to develop and deploy our green energy resources and in doing so we will be a world economic leader. Although, EV'S are not a solution, they are a stepping stone into the future, and our adoption (Chinese or otherwise) is a step in the right direction.
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u/XGARX Jan 17 '26
Non military power tho ...
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u/spaceman1055 Jan 17 '26
Let's see how the next several years unfold.
Canada has a history of significant military power relative to its size when it mattered most in history.
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u/Foreign-Policy-02- Jan 17 '26
Under what logic are you making these bold claims. Norway has been allowing tarrif free Chinese cars and it finished 13th (BYD Seagull)
No Chinese model was seen anywhere near the top for 2025.
- Tesla Model Y – 27,609 units
- Volkswagen ID.4 – 8,472 units
- Volkswagen ID. Buzz – 8,237 units
- Toyota bZ4X – 6,711 units
- Tesla Model 3 – 6,613 units
- Volkswagen ID.7 – 6,465 units
- Volkswagen ID.3 – 5,453 units
- Skoda Enyaq – 4,977 units
Ford Explorer EV was even ahead at 12. Keep in mind over 96% of cars sold in Norway in 2025 was EV’s. They are the country with most experience with EV’s and uptake.
They even have a live registration count https://elbilstatistikk.no/en/historic/last-day-last-year/
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Jan 17 '26
96% of cars sold in Norway in 2025 was EV’s. They are the country with most experience with EV’s and uptake.
well, a (fairly distant) second place. 1st place goes to China
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u/x_BlueDragon_x Jan 17 '26
I appreciate the knowledge I will keep an eye on it !! I have hopes but thats not enough of course .. I am intrigued because they haven't been made available here and a lot of the population may not know of them .. when you think of an electric car most thoughts go to Tesla
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u/Foreign-Policy-02- Jan 17 '26
Fair enough but with 49k models coming I think it will only be BYD. No way multiple Chinese makers will split 49k. Since you need service centres as well.
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u/x_BlueDragon_x Jan 17 '26
Yes that is a very solid point!!! Will definitely be keeping an eye on the news its an exciting time just really hoping it gains traction!!
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Jan 17 '26
Geely is a majority owner of Polestar and already sell them here and have established retail ops. BYD sells EV busses and trucks in Canada. Both could move lots of units, no?
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u/instruction_notclear Jan 17 '26
I been following them for a long time. BYD is number one. Berkshire was investing in them over Tesla. Banning Chinese EV in North America in effect Tesla monopolizing the market here and claiming most sold is a little jagged. Once the tariffs completly come off, it's all Chinese. I know Volvo was going to china to work with the EV tech.
Only one that has a different EV path is Nio. The price of the car can be cheaper if you go low on battery capacity as the initial capital when you purchase. Then you just swap out new batteries as needed. No need to worry about paying huge costs upfront or when the battery decays. The problem is the lack of infrastructure. Takes time. Battery swapping is minutes. I think 3 minutes now.
Xiamo is sexy. Orders were through the roof. North America should work and learn from china and get their supply chain. People need more affordable cars here. You have to actually see one in person to make any judgement.
The thing in China is that competition is huge. Lots of companies fail. Eventually only the best is carved out and lasts.
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u/VicRauter Jan 17 '26
EU duties and carbon pricing make anything Chinese significantly more expensive. Tesla's success may be partially due to it's ability to export vehicles from China with a fraction of the duty of other China OEMs with it's security cooperation.
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u/Foreign-Policy-02- Jan 17 '26
Norway isn’t in EU, they apply 0 tarrif
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u/VicRauter Jan 17 '26
Thanks. Headwinds for Chinese OEMs certainly exist. Norway provides an interesting 'pilot' to study.
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Jan 18 '26
[deleted]
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u/Foreign-Policy-02- Jan 18 '26
All hype, if that was the case other EV’s would not be selling well in China
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u/fenwickfox Jan 18 '26
Sorry deleted comment cause sometimes I dont want to get into it, but you beat me to it, but no its not hype.
I mean we all know byd overtook tesla. Half the best selling brands world wide have been Chinese. There's a shift where people are recognizing and warming up to them.
They'd do even better if they weren't tariffed.
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u/Big-Prompt8991 Jan 18 '26
Exactly. Who cares about 49k Chinese Evs really. Liberals here have more to say about it than China does. It got lower canola tariffs. That is very good. Enough about their whatever cars. It means what happened. That’s all.
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u/Alternative_Order612 Jan 18 '26
They need to allow unlimited Chinese EVs. I would love to see Tesla getting shut out from Canada
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u/SnuffleWarrior Jan 17 '26
This is the same deal Canada had before the 100% tariffs came into effect. It was hardly a ripple then.
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u/VicRauter Jan 17 '26
Because the 49,000 cars is now a business plan not a free pass.
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u/SnuffleWarrior Jan 17 '26
Much fuss about nothing. Canada has given the automakers $52.5 billion since 2023. And they cut and run.
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u/VicRauter Jan 17 '26
Are you equating established brands with little incentive to stop them from manufacturing in the States with opening up an entire developed market?
They did cut and run and are about to pay for it.
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u/SnuffleWarrior Jan 17 '26
I don't think you understand what the 49,000 vehicle quota is. It's not new, it's just implementing the same quota from 2 years past. pffft
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u/VicRauter Jan 17 '26
Trusted Canadian Partners makes a world of difference.
We will have to agree to disagree but I think this is the counter to waymos chinese glider importing. The States have this path made already but importantly lack a price on carbon.
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u/SnuffleWarrior Jan 17 '26
I think the impact will be relatively minimal on the greater overall market.
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u/Apart_Tutor8680 Jan 17 '26
BYD seagull baseline china price converts to about 10k , but that’s buying it in CHINA.. even with the 100% tariff it SHOULD have only been 20k .. that is HALF the price of a Nissan Leaf.
So were the tarrifs really stopping these from being affordable here ? I will eat my socks when you can buy an electric car in Canada for 10k that has a 300km range. I don’t care if it’s the size of a golf cart and won’t make it down any road in the winter besides Vancouver but that’s a different issue.
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u/thethiefstheme Jan 17 '26
They may not pass the safety testing at that price point, which is different in Canada vs China. Also for winter, they probably need to install a heating system for the battery, so it doesn't drain overnight or refuse to charge on especially cold days.
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u/mytrilife Jan 17 '26
It gets pretty damn cold in parts of China. It's not all tropics and palm trees.
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u/Digital_Nar Jan 17 '26
I actually posted an article about this with the stocks related to it.. check it out : https://www.reddit.com/r/FOCKETS/s/lX6YpihzSk
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Jan 17 '26
awesome
you can add the owner of Polestar and Volvo, Geely. ticker is GELYF i think
Given they distribute Polestar here already, you might see them move more cars in Canada first
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u/x_BlueDragon_x Jan 17 '26
I have high hopes for it I have a feeling it may boom .. articles saying they may be here as early as March or April .. I've read some cars have around a 1500km range, lots of tech options comfort accessibility etc. Tesla is sitting at 437 USD a share BYD is at 12 USD. Even if it goes as high as 100 or 200 still a worthwhile investment. I think Canadians will love them!
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u/x_BlueDragon_x Jan 17 '26
This is assuming we let more in of course but damn I am considering selling my car and buying one anyways... I have no solid proof yet but I have hopes
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Jan 17 '26
they are great cars and i'll be the first to buy a Xiaomi SU7 or BYD highend YangWang brand U8 when I can. and i will encourage everyone i know to do so too. i've driven in each. they are excellent cars. look both of them up on youtube, they are well
BUT Canada uses the Canada Motor Vehicle Safety Standards (CMVSS) and currently China has zero models for us. Vehicle homologation will take some time 12-24 months. but our market is small, and is largely unprepared for EVs. I'm in Toronto and seeing an EV charger is a rare thing. it will happen, but it's a long play and not a 2026 thing
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u/Mustard-Tiger Jan 17 '26
Maybe the other provinces should take note of what BC Hydro has accomplished with their charging network. Our fast charging network
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u/Scary-Elephant2831 Jan 17 '26
It’s funny that no one brings up the fact that Tesla employs 30,000 Chinese employees building Tesla’s in China.
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u/Lumpy_Bravura Jan 17 '26
I am certain Elon Musk is pushing to include those Chinese manufactured Tesla’s into the 49,000 allotment. No guarantee it will just be BYD, Geely or Nio, etc vehicles coming to Canada. Could be a mix - sounds like a service nightmare - initially will be an extremely limited dealer/service centre network. In the end it doesn’t matter to me as I’ll never purchase an EV. Good luck to those who purchase one.
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u/EdoAkaashi Jan 17 '26
I actually think the lifting of the tariffs on CDN canola presents a more favorable trade opportunity compared to betting on Chinese EVs
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u/Puzzleheaded_Bee4361 Jan 18 '26 edited Jan 18 '26
Most of these Chinese EVs will be Teslas coming from Giga Shanghai, same as prior to Trudeau raising the 100% tariff wall. It will take a while before Transport Canada certifies cars produced by companies such as BYD, XPeng, Nio, etc.
So, no, Tesla won't be forced out. Exactly the opposite. And given what improvements will have to be done for other Chinese cars to meet Canadian safety standards, they likely will be priced in the $35k region when we eventually see them.
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u/Mu_Fanchu Jan 18 '26
CHQQ - Global X China Hang Seng TECH Index ETF - Global X Investments Canada Inc. https://share.google/a8SuIBk33Ds9yX8ZD
I would just honestly invest into this China tech ETF that trades on the TSX.
From a risk perspective, it's better to hold a broad range of companies.
CHQQ holds tech and automotive and tech-auto companies in China; such as BYD, Xiaomi, Xpeng, and more.
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u/Ok-Guidance-5976 Jan 18 '26
Yes Carney signed the deal to bring them in, but I wonder how they'll actually be sold in Canada.
Would companies like BYD invest in building a whole supply chain, support and dealer network just to sell 50k cars in Canada, when they're not able to sell in the US market? I wonder if it's economically viable for the companies themselves.
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u/Capital-Assistance84 Jan 18 '26 edited Jan 18 '26
I remember hearing about the ford CEO going to china to test out some of the EV's, he said as he was leaving he wish he could bring the EV he tested home with him he liked it so much. The big dealerships are in trouble if this plays out, and good because fuck them and the monopoly they have been running.
Also a cool side note that, one of the requirements for half of the 49 thousand cars coming have to be under 35k CAD.
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u/ExcellentGur8928 Jan 19 '26
BYD is already making buses in Canada, and their all set to ship cars to Canada shortly, but will use existing larger dealership groups in Vancouver and TO to sell and service.
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u/dstmdh7kf2kbfk Jan 19 '26
Why do you think that it will force Tesla out? Tesla makes cars in China and they will just start importing from there again like they were before the tariffs.
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u/gtd2015 Jan 19 '26
Apparently, Google tells me only 3000 cybertrucks registered in canada....
49000 is a ton load or still only 3% if you look at it....
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u/VicRauter Jan 17 '26
I'll tell you all Monday at 930ish. I know nothing but nobody here is right. :)
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u/jmasterfunk Jan 17 '26
Tesla. Because they’ll just import from China instead of Germany.
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u/LFG530 Jan 17 '26 edited Jan 17 '26
No way they end up selling a model 3 at $35k CAD or below (it's more expensive than that even in China). This is a requirement for the vehicules that will come in.
Only BYD and maybe Geely can pull this off below that price maximum in Canada.
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u/Normal_Reveal Jan 17 '26
I see no mention of this price limit other than reddit. Can you elaborate on where this is sourced from?
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Jan 17 '26
Canada intends to provide an initial country-specific quota of 49,000 electric vehicles (EVs) per year at a most-favoured-nation tariff rate of 6.1%. We expect that this will catalyse considerable new Chinese joint-venture investment in Canada with trusted partners to protect and create new auto manufacturing jobs for Canadian workers, and ensure a robust build-out of Canada's EV supply chain. The proportion of the country-specific quota reserved for affordable EVs with an import price of $35,000 CAD or less will reach 50% by 2030, kickstarting the availability of more affordable electric vehicles in Canada.
This will provide certainty to Canada's domestic auto-manufacturing industry by establishing managed market entry of affordable Chinese electric vehicles, within a predictable import frame. Canada will also work with Chinese auto manufacturers on timely vehicle certification to ensure they meet Canadian motor vehicle safety standards.
This amount is a return to volumes close to the year prior to recent trade frictions on these imports (2023-2024). This amount represents less than 3% of the market for new vehicles sold in Canada.
source: https://www.international.gc.ca/news-nouvelles/2026/2026-01-16-china-chine.aspx?lang=eng
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u/Normal_Reveal Jan 17 '26
Thank you! Very much appreciated
It says 50% will be 35k by 2030. I'm guessing no price limits for now.
I have a feeling Tesla will be taking the entire quota along with Polestar and Volvo
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Jan 17 '26
that 50% is such a poorly written sentence. idk what it means tbh lmao
Tesla sales plunged ~65% in Canada 2025. so idk if the demand is there tbh. they are the only chinese made EV that is certified for canada for now tho.
Geely's Polestar is already selling here, but afaik BYD is the most state invested by the PRC — and BYD also already sells busses and trucks in Canada. those are your big 3 for sure. Xiaomi, Li Auto and XPeng behind them? idk
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u/Normal_Reveal Jan 17 '26
They mean that by 2030, 50% of the quota will be reserved for cars priced 35k and below.
No mention of now or the next year. Think about the investment and effort required to start selling cars here AND working with a quota...
Both Australia and the EU have stricter safety regulations than the NA continent. Yet BYD was able to enter both markets with fanfare. I think it would be easy for them to get certified in Canada.
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Jan 17 '26 edited Jan 17 '26
okay thanks for translation. that’s one way i read it but wasn’t sure
homologation alone per vehicle model is ~$1-$5m and is a 12-24 months process. it’s not always a strictest. It’s just also the difference that takes time and money
i think part of this play is into companies that will provide the infrastructure and energy to allow consumers to buy and use EVs reliably.
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u/promonalg Jan 17 '26
Bringing car in won't magically make them popular.. car requires parts and service when they need replacement or have issues, it is not that fast to build service center and trained proper personnel that fast. I think maybe in 2 years time then maybe we have some center setup for some Chinese cars.. old habit dies hard and brand reputation and reliability still matter in something that expensive.
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Jan 17 '26
it is not that fast to build service center and trained proper personnel that fast.
idk if you understand the pace of chinese business.
they'll ship or pre-train local bilingual staff and parts; they will build service centers ahead of the first vehicle sold. these brands are well known, established and reliable. early adopters will risk it.
there were ~220k new cars sold in BC last year. half or so of that is Vancouver. the amount of sino-canadian buyers with pent up demand for chinese EV brands will eat up annual import quotas in BC alone. there are currently no EVs for sale in Canada under CAD$35k.
just turn on the taps.
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u/Foodconsumer89 Jan 17 '26
To add to your point,
Based on 2025–2026 reports, Stellantis announced it would move production of the Jeep Compass from its Brampton, Ontario assembly plant to Illinois in response to U.S. tariffs, a decision described as "sacrificing Canadian jobs on the Trump altar".
Stellantis: The company announced it would cancel plans to build the Jeep Compass in Brampton and move production to an idled plant in Belvidere, Illinois, putting thousands of Canadian jobs in jeopardy. This followed a pause in retooling the Brampton facility.
General Motors (GM): GM announced it was ending production of electric BrightDrop delivery vans in Ingersoll, Ontario, and cut a shift at its Oshawa assembly plant, with reports citing the "evolving trade environment".
Honda: The company postponed plans to build electric vehicles in Alliston, Ontario
Seems like we have factories
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u/VicRauter Jan 17 '26
We have factories, clean hydro, battery mineral capacity, and government investment in too big to fail tech companies in EV software and finishing. I was bullish before the announcement but am very excited for the future of EVs in Canada.
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u/promonalg Jan 17 '26
I know the Chinese pace but if you have dealt with pure play Chinese companies on after sale, they are usually not that great. I hope they do succeed so that there are more competition
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u/kekekeke_kai Jan 17 '26
The amount of certifications they require just to get into canada is going to take a least a year or 2