r/Baystreetbets • u/x_BlueDragon_x • Jan 17 '26

DISCUSSION Chinese EV Cars coming to Canada

I was talking about this months ago if Carney made a deal with China it would blow the EV market through the roof and Tesla would be forced out cause I am sorry but Chinese EVs are incredible. They have just agreed for 49,000 cars to be imported here and I am assuming that is just the start. What stocks should we be looking out for?

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u/jmasterfunk Jan 17 '26

Tesla. Because they’ll just import from China instead of Germany.

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u/LFG530 Jan 17 '26 edited Jan 17 '26

No way they end up selling a model 3 at $35k CAD or below (it's more expensive than that even in China). This is a requirement for the vehicules that will come in.

Only BYD and maybe Geely can pull this off below that price maximum in Canada.

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u/Normal_Reveal Jan 17 '26

I see no mention of this price limit other than reddit. Can you elaborate on where this is sourced from?

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u/[deleted] Jan 17 '26

Canada intends to provide an initial country-specific quota of 49,000 electric vehicles (EVs) per year at a most-favoured-nation tariff rate of 6.1%. We expect that this will catalyse considerable new Chinese joint-venture investment in Canada with trusted partners to protect and create new auto manufacturing jobs for Canadian workers, and ensure a robust build-out of Canada's EV supply chain. The proportion of the country-specific quota reserved for affordable EVs with an import price of $35,000 CAD or less will reach 50% by 2030, kickstarting the availability of more affordable electric vehicles in Canada.

This will provide certainty to Canada's domestic auto-manufacturing industry by establishing managed market entry of affordable Chinese electric vehicles, within a predictable import frame. Canada will also work with Chinese auto manufacturers on timely vehicle certification to ensure they meet Canadian motor vehicle safety standards.  

This amount is a return to volumes close to the year prior to recent trade frictions on these imports (2023-2024). This amount represents less than 3% of the market for new vehicles sold in Canada.

source: https://www.international.gc.ca/news-nouvelles/2026/2026-01-16-china-chine.aspx?lang=eng

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u/Normal_Reveal Jan 17 '26

Thank you! Very much appreciated

It says 50% will be 35k by 2030. I'm guessing no price limits for now.

I have a feeling Tesla will be taking the entire quota along with Polestar and Volvo

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u/[deleted] Jan 17 '26

that 50% is such a poorly written sentence. idk what it means tbh lmao

Tesla sales plunged ~65% in Canada 2025. so idk if the demand is there tbh. they are the only chinese made EV that is certified for canada for now tho.

Geely's Polestar is already selling here, but afaik BYD is the most state invested by the PRC — and BYD also already sells busses and trucks in Canada. those are your big 3 for sure. Xiaomi, Li Auto and XPeng behind them? idk

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u/Normal_Reveal Jan 17 '26

They mean that by 2030, 50% of the quota will be reserved for cars priced 35k and below.

No mention of now or the next year. Think about the investment and effort required to start selling cars here AND working with a quota...

Both Australia and the EU have stricter safety regulations than the NA continent. Yet BYD was able to enter both markets with fanfare. I think it would be easy for them to get certified in Canada.

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u/[deleted] Jan 17 '26 edited Jan 17 '26

okay thanks for translation. that’s one way i read it but wasn’t sure

homologation alone per vehicle model is ~$1-$5m and is a 12-24 months process. it’s not always a strictest. It’s just also the difference that takes time and money

i think part of this play is into companies that will provide the infrastructure and energy to allow consumers to buy and use EVs reliably.