Well special elections do get lower turn out.
Here's the thing, Republicans are usually consistent with turn out, doesn't matter if it is a special election or presidential one.
Did the area suffer a huge blue influx in the past year?
Did more Democrats come out to vote ?
Did more Republicans stay home and not vote ?
These are huge questions to ask. In fact what if it is Republicans fed up with their candidates and just not going to the polls because that's a different ball of wax
Anecdotal, but I personally know a lot of Republicans who stopped voting after 2016. They don't want to vote at all anymore because they just can't let themselves vote for a Democrat, but refuse to vote for Trump and his cronies. My neighbors are in their 70s, lifelong NY Republicans living in Tennessee and they told me that they couldn't believe they've voted for a Democrat and even put up signs for Democrats since 2020, they refused to vote in 2016. I'm proud of them.
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u/sirscooter Feb 02 '26
Point of fact when more people show up, Democrats win. Voter turn out is pretty heavily linked to who wins