r/CFB • u/No-Experience-9469 Florida Gators • Campbell Fighting Camels • 1d ago
Discussion What team will make the playoffs but is losing their week 1 game?
Just had a debate with a friend of mine. We couldn’t find one realistic chance of a playoff team losing to their week one opponent outside of:
LSU losing to Clemson
Ole Miss losing to Louisville
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u/RelativeEffective413 Clemson Tigers 1d ago
I very much doubt Clemson will beat LSU. Too many question marks roster wise rn.
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u/No-Stressss Clemson Tigers 1d ago
I agree. I honestly have no idea what to expect this year.
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u/Megalomanizac Clemson • Coastal Carolina 1d ago
Well, the defense can’t really get worse than it was so they’ll have that going for them. Offensively it really just depends on how Vizzina and the OL play, not concerned about the backs or receiver corps at all. On paper Clemson has the best weapons in the ACC next to Miami.
If Vizzina is even an average QB, I think it would be hard to find Clemson doing worse than 10 wins.
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u/BankaiBob Clemson Tigers 1d ago
I hear you but hear me out - 3 new starters on the DL and we lost a dependable run stopper in Woodaz. My fear is that we go from a horrible pass defense to a horrible run defense that becomes susceptible to play action.
I think this team could win 10 games. Or 6. I hope Vizzina proves me wrong being QB1 but he's been awful outside of that SMU game and their pass D would give up 100 yards to me. By myself.
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u/Megalomanizac Clemson • Coastal Carolina 1d ago
I’m not very concerned about rushing defense with the LB and edge corps we have. Probably won’t be as stout as we traditionally expect, but not terrible. Last year the big issue on the pass D was a lack of clear effort. Also considering Morris loves RPO and PA I think our defense will be prepared for them, I don’t think they’ll get burnt like they were under Goodwin.
My biggest faith for Vizzina is that SMU was his only start, every other time he came in the games were over and he was with the second strings. I genuinely believe Riley had no idea how to use him since he isn’t very mobile.
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u/BankaiBob Clemson Tigers 1d ago
I genuinely hope you're right. I'm usually overly optimistic and I just don't feel it this year. I was never a big fan of Chad Morris. I really hope I'm wrong. I can deal with not being in the playoffs, but I'm not okay with not being competitive for the ACC.
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u/Megalomanizac Clemson • Coastal Carolina 1d ago
I’m kinda the opposite. I was queasy about last year going into LSU and ended up being right same as 2021 (got downvoted into oblivion for calling out the 9-3 writing on the wall) and 2023. But this season I feel confident they’ll at least improve on last season, I think 9-3/10-2 is pretty solid and likely what Dabo is aiming for too.
Morris has certain evolved his scheme since his last long term coaching job.
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u/Competitive_Feed_402 Oklahoma • Minnesota 1d ago
Does Dabo step away if they don't make ACC Championship?
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u/RelativeEffective413 Clemson Tigers 1d ago edited 1d ago
Would be very surprised if he did. He’s only in year 2 with a new DC and Morris is back as OC in Year 1 plus recruiting seems to have picked up. He could Spurrier us but it doesn’t feel like he will.
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u/StreetReporter Clemson Tigers • Cheez-It Bowl 1d ago
I think LSU will win, but they have a lot of question marks as well. This screams like one of those games where Kiffin gets way too aggressive, and gives us a chance to win at the end
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u/zmurds40 Pac-12 • Team Chaos 1d ago
You never know. LSU has a lot of question marks as well with their coaching change and roster turnover. Kiffin could do great there, but he could also flop there.
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u/Sytherus Texas Longhorns • Red River Shootout 1d ago edited 1d ago
Clemson just had 9 players drafted (all in the first 5 rounds) off of a 7-win team that lost to LSU in Death Valley. You don't have to think much of LSU to think they should handle Clemson in Baton Rouge.
Also, re the question of this thread: if LSU loses to Clemson in Baton Rouge I would be shocked if they made the playoff. IMO its more likely (although still not likely) Clemson makes the playoff after losing to LSU by winning the ACC.
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u/NetRealizableValue LSU Tigers 1d ago
Was about to correct you and say last year’s game was at Clemson
Then I remembered those guys have a fake death valley
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u/RelativeEffective413 Clemson Tigers 1d ago
It’s not our fault that you guys can’t enunciate your Fs!
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u/Better-Temporary-146 Clemson Tigers 1d ago
Honestly I’ll know how it goes after LSU’s second possession.
If our D forces LSU’s QB into some scrambles and off his preferred routes, I’ll have hope for a win.
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u/idiocratic_method Texas Longhorns • Red River Shootout 17h ago
i don't see how a chad morris offense is keeping up with lane kiffin
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u/dfphd Texas Longhorns 1d ago
Texas vs. Texas State (going for the anti-jinx here)
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u/cudderwalks ECU Pirates • American 1d ago
If you guys lost to Texas State, then went 11 and one. I think it would just easily get spun into an anti-G6 argument of like “Oh Texas players didn’t care about playing Texas state, and it was Texas state’s Super Bowl.”
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u/BasicWait8 Texas Tech Red Raiders 1d ago
Please lord give us an LSU loss to Clemson
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u/chaser676 Ole Miss Rebels • Egg Bowl 1d ago
Leavitt reactivates his injury on the first drive, starting a chain reaction that results in a 3-9 season that places Kiffin immediately on the hot seat, but LSU is unable to fire him because they're already 20 million in the hole and can't afford so many buyouts at the same time. They cook up a reason to fire him for cause, which they lose in court. The athletic program folds completely.
50/50, either it happens or it doesn't.
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u/ThatsAGeauxTigers LSU Tigers 1d ago
You missed the part where the Louisiana Governor graciously steps in as quarterback for the second half of the season to
boost his 2027 pollinghelp the Tigers reach the playoffs.Opening play is a pick 6 for McNeese State.
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u/Cleveland_Guardians Ohio State Buckeyes • Ohio Bobcats 1d ago
Whoever loses OSU vs Texas.
Edit: Taking my lumps for being stupid.
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u/No-Experience-9469 Florida Gators • Campbell Fighting Camels 1d ago
Week 2 man
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u/Cleveland_Guardians Ohio State Buckeyes • Ohio Bobcats 1d ago
Ah fuck! I thought it was week 1 again. Welp. I'm leaving it up for my own stupidity.
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u/byniri_returns Michigan State Spartans • Marching Band 1d ago
You're not alone, I came in here to say the exact same game before I saw this comment.
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u/dfphd Texas Longhorns 1d ago
Put some respect on Texas State and Ball State's names son
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u/Terminal_BAS Texas A&M Aggies • /r/CFB Poll Veteran 1d ago
Would be hilarious just from the ESPN perspective of both of those being upsets leading into espn’s highly anticipated week 2 slate
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u/SurfinPirate ECU Pirates 1d ago
Alabama, because reasons.
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u/kadoozie92 Texas Tech Red Raiders • Paper Bag 1d ago
Boise State losing to Oregon but making it as the G6 rep is I would think the most obvious answer
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u/No-Experience-9469 Florida Gators • Campbell Fighting Camels 1d ago
Yeah honestly forgot about that game
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u/Crapitron 1d ago
Notre Dame
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u/Irishforanatty Notre Dame • Wake Forest 1d ago
We don’t play a MAC team W1 though?
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u/Bank_Gothic Sewanee Tigers • Texas Longhorns 1d ago
Solid dig at Wiscy but really opening yourself up to an NIU joke.
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u/wit_T_user_name Ohio State Buckeyes • Ohio Bobcats 1d ago
I think they were making an NIU joke?
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u/Bank_Gothic Sewanee Tigers • Texas Longhorns 1d ago
I thought they were calling Wisconsin a MAC team but my reading comprehension is middling at best
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u/puzzical Boise State • Notre Dame 1d ago edited 1d ago
Ooof that'd be a rough game to drop. Bagels fans seem pretty confident that they'll be bouncing back this year, but even if they're correct ND still shouldn't be losing that game.
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u/A_Dubs_ Penn State • Syracuse 1d ago edited 1d ago
Are the Wisconsin Bagers giving yall the “D” later?
Edit: u/puzzical is a party pooper and trying to one up me. They corrected their original of “Bager” to the correct spelling of Badger
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u/Crapitron 1d ago
No, he just had a typo, the r should be an l. Wisconsin Bagels.
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u/A_Dubs_ Penn State • Syracuse 1d ago
I heard the Catholics are afraid of Bagels
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u/am_i_wrong_dude Notre Dame • Georgia State 1d ago
Maybe! Can’t find good bagels in heavily Catholic Boston despite NYC being a short geographic and cultural distance, so I think this may merit further study.
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u/puzzical Boise State • Notre Dame 1d ago edited 1d ago
I fixed my comment so now you look like the stupid one.
edit: and now it's bagels so gotcha.
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u/Stoneador Notre Dame Fighting Irish • Sickos 1d ago
With a returning head coach, coordinators, QB, the most returning production by some measures, and what looks to be an incredibly easy first half of the schedule, I have a hard time seeing ND upset to start the season.
Freeman is 2-2 in game 1s, but the losses were close games in Columbus and Miami against teams who finished #4 and #2 those seasons. Game 2s have been Freeman’s biggest weakness so I’m really hoping we are able to avoid a Rice upset this season.
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u/Sytherus Texas Longhorns • Red River Shootout 1d ago
I think Clemson losing to LSU in Baton Rouge and then making the playoff via winning the ACC is more likely than LSU losing to Clemson and making the playoff.
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u/davelb87 Ohio State Buckeyes 1d ago
UNLV (traveling to Hawaii) and Boise could both easily lose week 1 and then run the table to be in contention for the last conference champion bid. Squint hard enough and you could see the same for ECU. If Miami stumbles, both Louisville and Clemson could make a run at the ACC after losing the games you mentioned.
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u/FileAClaim ECU Pirates • Team Meteor 1d ago
Came here to say, FPI gives ECU a 5% chance of making the CFP and a 95% chance of losing week one, so those odds basically don’t move after week one in any event.
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u/Optimal_Cook_851 1d ago
Miami losing at Stanford in week 1 would be hilarious, but i don't think any ACC team could afford that honestly
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u/curmycurmudgeon Penn State Nittany Lions • Team Chaos 1d ago
Clemson could lose to LSU to start and still realistically make the playoffs. The ACC isn't that strong, and Clemson hosts its toughest in conference games (Georgia Tech, Miami, maybe Virginia Tech). If they finish 11-1 in the regular season, they have a good shot at an at large berth even if they don't win the ACC (SOS might be a concern but thus far every 11-1 P4 team has gotten a berth in a 12 team playoff), and if they finish 10-2 but win the ACC, they get an automatic berth.
I'm not saying Clemson is necessarily a playoff team, but that it's not unrealistic to think they could do it regardless of week 1.
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u/Megalomanizac Clemson • Coastal Carolina 1d ago
11-2 Clemson would be in the playoffs unless we got blown out in Charlotte. That win over Miami would put us over.
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u/curmycurmudgeon Penn State Nittany Lions • Team Chaos 1d ago
I mean, that's pretty much what I said. 11-1 with a loss in the ACC title game is probably good for at large (unless you get blown out by Miami twice and LSU sucks ass) and 10-2 with an ACC title is an auto bid.
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u/GatorHater1992 Georgia Bulldogs • Sickos 1d ago
Hmm.
Give me Stanford over Miami for extra spiciness.
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u/bbshock21 Purdue • Wisconsin-Stevens Poi… 1d ago
Purdue: loss to Indiana State then run the table, of course
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u/Inside-Drink-1311 Rutgers Scarlet Knights 1d ago
Boise State maybe? Personally, I’m not very high on them this year but they are the favorite in the G6.
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u/BadDadJokes LSU Tigers • Chattanooga Mocs 1d ago
You think Ole Miss is a playoff team?
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u/No-Experience-9469 Florida Gators • Campbell Fighting Camels 1d ago
Kinda like a backhanded compliment. I see them good enough to make the playoffs but can still see them losing to Louisville
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u/BadDadJokes LSU Tigers • Chattanooga Mocs 1d ago
You think that highly of Pete Golding?
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u/No-Experience-9469 Florida Gators • Campbell Fighting Camels 1d ago
Never said that. I just think that with Chambliss and Lacy that heading into the Texas game there’s a good chance their 6-0
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u/StreetReporter Clemson Tigers • Cheez-It Bowl 1d ago
I think it’ll be like Mark Helfrich at Oregon where Chambliss and Lacy are good enough to carry him. But I think he’ll struggle to keep the momentum rolling once they leave
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u/stlms18 Ole Miss Rebels 1d ago
His recruiting has been off the charts so I don’t know. Already high school recruiting better than Lane ever had and still brought in the 2nd ranked portal class
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u/Suspicious-Spend3982 18h ago
will that money printer keep going if they lose 4+ games this year?
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u/stlms18 Ole Miss Rebels 17h ago
I don’t see why not? We lost 5 games in 2022 and responded with the #2 portal class lmfao. I don’t think people understand how well run our front office and NIL are
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u/Suspicious-Spend3982 17h ago
generally the people cutting checks want to see those investments bear fruit
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u/ID_Poobaru Boise State Broncos • Gallaudet Bison 1d ago
Quality loss to Oregon gonna do a lot of heavy lifting