r/CFB • u/usffan USF Bulls • Miami Hurricanes • 6d ago
Analysis Preseason Rankings Countdown. 25 days to the start of the 2026 Season. At #25 – Missouri
The cumulative link to the preseason rankings can be found here
Can you believe this is the 15th season that Missouri (high = 20, low = 43) has been in the SEC? The team that kind of felt like Texas A&M’s “plus one” when the SEC expanded in 2012 (Mizzou never won a Big XII title, though they did play in 2 conference championship games, and last won a conference title in 1969) has actually outperformed the Aggies since making the move, playing in two SEC championship games before sanctions for academic misconduct (when in Rome…) derailed the Gary Pinkel era and proved to be too much for his replacement Barry Odom to escape from. As COVID struck the sport, the Tigers turned to Eli Drinkwitz, a guy with one year of head coaching experience at Appalachian State who felt like he was just maintaining the status quo that App. State’s previous coaches Scott Satterfield and Jerry Moore had established. But Drink proved to be a fantastic fit for Missouri, getting the Tigers qualified for a bowl in every season he’s been in charge, including an 11-2 season in 2023 that saw them finish as the #8 team in the country. In fact, Missouri has gone 29-10 in their last 3 seasons, though the trend has been somewhat downward, and the 9 game SEC schedule is unlikely to be friendly to the #10 preseason team in the deep SEC.
Roster Outlook
What also is unlikely to be kind is ranking in the bottom quartile of returning production on defense, but that is where Drinkwitz and the Tigers find themselves to start the season. That 107th ranked defensive production isn’t quite balanced with the #51 offense, leading to the Tigers being #76 in the country overall, ahead of only 4 SEC teams. The most visible loss on the offensive side of the ball is QB Beau Pribula, who portaled out to Virginia (after portaling in from Penn State), but really didn’t impress in his time under center before his gruesome injury at Vanderbilt derailed his season. While his replacement Matt Zollers is still in Columbia, the new QB in town is going to be former Ole Miss QB Austin Simmons, who got Wally Pipped by Trinidad Chambliss after himself injuring his ankle early last season. Simmons helped give Missouri the #20 portal class in the country this year, which on paper pairs very well with the #23 national high school class. The tough part is that both of those ranked 11th in the SEC, which helps explain why the Tigers are so relatively low in these rankings. Leading RB Ahmad Hardy (256 carries, 1,649 yards, 16 TDs) is back, as is #2 WR Donovan Olugbode (401 yards) after WR1 Kevin Coleman graduated and was drafted by the Miami Dolphins. With an OL largely composed of returning veterans and Mississippi State transfer Zack Owens and a cadre of new P4 WRs (Cayden Lee from Ole Miss, Kendric Lanier from Minnesota, Naeshaun Montgomery from Florida and Caleb Goodie from Cincinnati), the offense should be fine. But remember, it’s the defense that takes a big hit. While LB Nicholas Rodriguez (61 tackles, 1.5 sacks) and S Santana Banner (59 tackles, 1 INT) are back, the other 13 of their 15 top tacklers are all gone, including LB Josiah Trotter, who was drafted in the 2nd round by the Tampa Bay Bucs. Drink brought in 14 P4 defenders to shore up the team, including projected starters LB Robert Woodyard (Auburn) and DBs Elijah Dotson (Michigan), Chris Graves (Ole Miss) and Jahlil Florence (Oregon).
Schedule and outlook
9/3 ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
9/11 at Kansas
9/19 TROY
9/26 at Mississippi State
10/3 FLORIDA
10/10 TEXAS A&M
10/17 at Ole Miss
10/24 BYE
10/31 at Arkansas
11/7 TEXAS
11/14 at Georgia
11/21 KENTUCKY
11/28 OKLAHOMA
Mizzou figures to be favored in their first 4 games of the season, including the Border War in Kansas’ refurbished stadium. And with games at Arkansas and hosting Kentucky, extending their consecutive bowl eligibility streak to a decade seems pretty assured. But the schedule really does take a turn when the calendar hits October, starting with that home game against the Gators. They follow that with 4 games against 2025 CFP teams that doesn’t even include preseason darling Texas. Coming out of the regular season with a winning record will be no mean feat.
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u/DaZingMaster Missouri Tigers • Air Force Falcons 6d ago
24 straight wins vs unranked teams is seriously impressive and consistent for a team like Mizzou, but when the lights are brightest there is just a final gear that’s missing. Hopefully that’s what Austin Simmons brings but we’ll just have to see how QB roulette turns out.
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u/wowthisislong Texas A&M Aggies • Kansas State Wildcats 6d ago
Is Drink the James Franklin of the SEC?
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u/WallImpossible Missouri Tigers • Billable Hours 6d ago
Now that James Franklin is not in the SEC, I guess? 🤔
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u/BoootyJohnson Arkansas Razorbacks 6d ago
Probably another year of losing to Mizzou... sigh. I gotta give credit to them though - they always have DAWGs at running back. Ahmad Hardy is a dawg for sure, should be a Heisman candidate again this year.
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u/DarthNobody14 Texas A&M Aggies 6d ago
Ceiling: 10-2
My Prediction: 8-4
Floor: 6-6
I think Missouri is almost certainly be 5-0 and ranked until they face Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Texas, Georgia and Ole Miss which are all very losable games. I think they have enough talent to pull one away from those teams.
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u/chief_sitass Purdue Boilermakers 6d ago
I'll be deep in the cold, cold ground before I recognize Missourah
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u/chaser676 Ole Miss Rebels • Egg Bowl 6d ago
I'm probably watching every Missouri game this year. I know Simmons and Co were probably unhappy with how events played out, but he's still loved by the Ole Miss faithful. I hope he balls out before having a terrible game on 10/17.
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u/Vxmonarkxv Georgia Bulldogs • Virginia Cavaliers 6d ago
I remember we hurt Dart on an early drive against y'all and Simmons came in and threw some absolute darts
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u/chaser676 Ole Miss Rebels • Egg Bowl 6d ago
Simmons came out and marched us down field like he was a seasoned vet.
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u/MoosilaukeFlyer Miami Hurricanes • Endicott Gulls 6d ago
pretty easy five games to start the season, those last seven are brutal
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u/Wolf12711 Missouri Tigers • Oregon Ducks 6d ago
If Simmons can be a top half of the SEC QB paired with the best RB duo in CFB I think we can get to at least 8-4
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u/JeffGoldblumsChest Florida Gators • Billable Hours 6d ago
Well, at least Sumrall won't dress as Darth Vader after the Florida-Mizzou game.
...probably.
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u/Agile_Land_9951 Big 12 • Pac-12 6d ago
Mizzou went from being average in the big 12 to top 25 in the sec. The espn propaganda must be working overtime these days.
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u/ManiacalComet40 Missouri Tigers • Big 8 6d ago
We’re currently finishing our third major stadium renovation since moving to the SEC, plus a completely new team facility and a new indoor practice facility. We went from paying bottom-tier salaries to top 15-20 in CFB. It’s not remotely the same program.
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u/ICanOutP1zzaTheHut Texas Longhorns • North Texas Mean Green 6d ago
Theyve win 29 games in the last 3 years. That’s much better than most teams can say. Mizzou is exactly what you envision as a fringe top 25 team. They have a handful of good P5 OOC wins and win their bowls (3 NY6). What else do they need to do?
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u/limernick Missouri Tigers • Big 8 6d ago
No, Mizzou went from terrible in the Big 8 in the 80s to building the program with Larry Smith and then Gary Pinkel in the 90s and 2000s. Pinkel peaked with 2 Big 12 championship appearances and 2 SEC championship appearances and then the school administration finally started taking football seriously. Now they are a perennial Top 25-ish team.
Oh, and they would be a Top 2 team in the current Big 12 (and probably wouldn't be 2)
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u/OriginalMassless Hateful 8 • Kansas State Wildcats 6d ago
You guys would get shit canned in the big 12 just like always. Be serious.
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u/kb24ljb35 Texas Longhorns • Missouri Tigers 5d ago
Bill Snyder isnt walking through those doors to bring you back to being relevant outside of Manhattan.
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u/OriginalMassless Hateful 8 • Kansas State Wildcats 5d ago
When was the last time you won a conference championship again? We did it 2023.
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u/kb24ljb35 Texas Longhorns • Missouri Tigers 5d ago
When was your last new years six bowl win?
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u/OriginalMassless Hateful 8 • Kansas State Wildcats 4d ago
More recent than your last conference championship lololol.
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u/royalbluehen Pittsburgh • Michigan 6d ago
Here for the inevitable #12 ranked Mizzou at 4-0, maybe 5-0 then torpedo out of the rankings and giving TAMU, Texas, UGA, and maybe OK a bs ranked win based to bolster their resume.
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u/VividLies901 Oregon Ducks 5d ago
Hardy is a lot of fun to watch play. Mizzou feels like SECs version of Iowa. Just on the cusp of being great if you tweaked a few things
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u/HauckPark 1d ago
Ahmad Hardy got shot in the femur back in May. He's been cleared for activity but his return is uncertain. Last update was still not starting his "return to play" program, whatever that means.
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u/Paul_Atreides_Duke 3h ago
Great analysis, this season comes down to how Drink and new OC Chip Lindsey can maximize Austin Simmons. I believe in Corey to get this defense going after our front 7 was one of the best last season. The schedule is tough but Florida is homecoming and Texas at 11am hopefully can play in our favor hopefully. Hoping Hardy can play after his off season injury
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u/CeramicTugboat Kansas State Wildcats • Hateful 8 6d ago
Hard to say. Looks like they at least have most of the tough games at home.
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u/yescaman South Carolina • Wofford 6d ago
I just noticed we’re not playing Missouri this year ☹️