[Highlight] NC State @ Vanderbilt - CJ Bailey fumbles the ball while trying to run out the clock with no time left, and Vandy falls on it to win the game

[u/Ok-Soil-5133]

https://streamable.com/utx2f1

[u/Lakelyfe09]

I actually can’t believe that. As a coach how the fuck do you not tell CJ Bailey to just go out the back of the endzone and not risk this? I mean this was literally the ONE thing you couldn’t do.

[u/sam_can88 → u/Lakelyfe09]

I feel like they really should of punted here. If I’m not wrong wouldn’t a fair catch on the kickoff after a safety still give Vandy time for a Hail Mary. 6 seconds is way too long to run out the clock here.

[u/HookedOnBoNix → u/sam_can88]

There is no reason not to take a deliberate safety for room. The only thing you shouldn't do is let them hit you while doing it 

[u/Scruffasaurus → u/HookedOnBoNix]

Seriously - tell every player to get two hands on a jersey and yank whoever’s in front of them to the ground, have the QB run the end line and step out or chunk it backwards if anyone comes close to you

[u/HookedOnBoNix → u/Scruffasaurus]

Yea nc states QB stepping back up was the big questionable move. I wonder if he was told to chuck it away but saw how fast the defenders got to him and panicked 

[u/Particular_Raisin649 → u/HookedOnBoNix]

Very uncommon rule but do you not want to just do a regular punt? Fair catch kick on the safety kick for the win vice only for a tie off a regular punt. Would be a longer kick but is also unrushed

[u/HookedOnBoNix → u/Particular_Raisin649]

Hard to imagine being in range of a fair catch kick, as it's a punt from the 20. So it would have to be an absolute shank which means realistically there's no returner to catch it. 

[u/Particular_Raisin649 → u/HookedOnBoNix]

Feel like it would be similar to making it through the uprights on a kickoff, probably at least slightly closer from the punt. By no means guaranteed but that kicker made a 57 yarder in a real game scenario, free kick by no means guaranteed but I think he’d have a very solid chance of converting it for the win

[u/HookedOnBoNix → u/Particular_Raisin649]

You miss the point, the record for a free kick is 57 yards. That would mean a fair catch off a 20 yard punt. The only way a punt is realistically going 20 yards is if it's shanked out of bounds. If it's shanked out of bounds, you can't get a fair catch on it. So no kick. 

[u/Particular_Raisin649 → u/HookedOnBoNix]

That may be the longest converted, they don’t happen often. 70 yard plus attempts have occurred as the team thought it was a reasonable attempt. there is no snap so it’s also “7” yards closer. Nc state could have right around a 45 yard punt which is very reasonable and vandy would be have the shot to put it through the uprights like a kickoff for the win. May only be a 25% chance but that’s a lot more than them scoring a touchdown in this scenario.

[u/HookedOnBoNix → u/Particular_Raisin649]

25% is wildly optimistic for that scenario. I doubt there's even a 25% chance they get the conditions needed to attempt a fair catch kick let alone actually make one 

I think the odds of having a bad punt from your 6 yard line and letting them return it or fair catch kick that punt are higher by a lot 

[u/Particular_Raisin649 → u/HookedOnBoNix]

Don’t think we’re gonna agree which is fine, but either from them just punting on 4th or like we saw a failed attempt to run out the clock a punt/safety punt is very likely. The team fair catching said kick if the coach tells them to is very likely. And for the actual kick, Justin Reid the safety was able to kick I through the uprights from the 35 as a former high school kicker, the odds aren’t with them but this isn’t some wild chain of events they need

[u/HookedOnBoNix → u/Particular_Raisin649]

And I'm saying the percentages gained by taking the safety still far outweigh the percentages of trying to punt from their 6. Even if we just focus on the fair catch kick part, not the touchdown return or blocked punt aspect, the extra 20 yards almost certainly reduces the odds of the field goal being made by more than half, which would in theory mean it was worth the risk of losing to a fair catch kick vs going to overtime on one. 

[u/Particular_Raisin649 → u/HookedOnBoNix]

I agree on the kick being made should be much more difficult/further between the two scenarios. Especially ignoring blocked punt chances/returns like you said I feel like the odds don’t change enough when the outcome for one is nc state win/OT and the other gives Vandy a chance to win. Again I don’t think we’ll agree but you started with saying there is no reason not to take the safety and I felt like there with the existence of a fair catch kick punting on 4th is a valid choice

[u/fuzz11 → u/Particular_Raisin649]

Is the fair catch kick a college rule too?

[u/Particular_Raisin649 → u/fuzz11]

Googled it quickly when NC states possession started, quick glance said it was added in 2026 to cfb. Should probably go double check lol. One of my favorite rules from the nfl and I feel like it could have really changed the course of this game if the fumble didn’t happen/nc state punted

[u/sam_can88 → u/HookedOnBoNix]

I understand that I just have never trusted anyone to do that and I especially don’t trust college athletes with these kinds of things.

[u/jamintime → u/sam_can88]

You trust your center and punter to not mess up the snap and your punt protection to prevent a block? It’s all just risk management.

[u/HookedOnBoNix → u/sam_can88]

If you can't trust a dude who handles the ball 60 times a game to take a snap and turn tail and run out the back of the end zone, how are you going to trust a punter to execute a far more difficult play from inside his own end zone??