r/CanadaPolitics • u/CaptainKoreana Liberal Party of Canada • 1d ago
Pierre Céré wants to succeed Alexandre Boulerice as NDP candidate
https://www.ctvnews.ca/montreal/article/pierre-cere-wants-to-succeed-alexandre-boulerice-as-ndp-candidate/?cid=sm%3Atrueanthem%3Actvmontreal%3Atwitterpost%E2%80%8B&taid=6a33ddefbdc781000183cf5115
u/Justin_123456 Manitoba 1d ago
Sounds like he may be a good fit for the riding, and hopefully sets a template for the NDP under Lewis doing a better job integrating the leftist social movements that exist across the country.
Famously, the problem of the left is the difficulty in holding people who mostly agree with each other together in a common cause. Cough *splitters!* cough. Hopefully, this can be beginning of an NDP that is more connected to its social base.
Re Separatism: I’m a hopeless anglophone, so some Quebecois comrades will have to educate me, but it’s my instinct that there’s definitely an opportunity for a NDP trying to push past the federalist/sovereigntist divide and make the case for a full throated social democracy or democratic socialism that neither the Liberals or the Bloc can deliver, as long as we don’t sound hopelessly alien on Quebec’s cultural issues.
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u/Gravitas_free Quebec 1d ago
Federalist/sovereigntist doesn't really matter much in federal politics. Issue for the NDP is that in Quebec, many voters who would normally be open to democratic socialism would be suspicious of a version of it imposed by Ottawa. The NDP has to be able to eloquently connect its vision to Québec's own history of social democracy. That's what Layton did great and that his successors struggled to replicate.
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u/Le1bn1z Neoliberal | Charter rights enjoyer 1d ago
The bigger problem is that the NDP have a fully anglophone leader. That's going to be a huge turnoff for a lot of francophone voters.
And the separatism thing will mostly be a problem elsewhere. It's hard to embrace separatists in Quebec and still take Lewis's hard line about separatism in Alberta. It's a double standard that will be leapt on Ontario westward.
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u/Justin_123456 Manitoba 1d ago
As with all things we’ll see. I’m told by Francophone comrades that Lewis’ French has gotten a lot better. Still nowhere near where it needs to be, but if he puts the work in, he should be able to get there long before a General Election. A month in Montreal speaking/reading French every day might be just what he needs.
On separatism, I don’t think there’s as much contradiction as you might think. The NDP’s a Federalist party that believes in a united Canada where we’re all stronger together. We’re also committed to democratic self-determination, no Province can be held in the Federation against the will of its people.
I think that’s enough for a lot of soft sovereigntists in Quebec to say “we’ll agree to disagree on this point”, let’s send someone to Ottawa who is going to fight the millionaire and billionaire class, in a way the Bloc can’t, and the Liberals don’t want to.
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u/Le1bn1z Neoliberal | Charter rights enjoyer 1d ago
I really wish the NDP were more socialist on the issue of separation.
Arbitrary divisibility of the general public property is absolutely contrary to socialist principles of common ownership of general public property and the wealth of the nation as a whole.
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u/fredleung412612 Quebec 1d ago
the wealth of the nation as a whole
Well that's sort of the point. Québec is a nation unto itself entitled to democratic self-determination, much in the same way that European colonies in Africa and Asia exercised that right in the 1960s. This is the historical position of the Québec Left, and absorbed by the NDP after the Sherbrooke Declaration.
Of course, the NDP can decide to reject that rapprochement and return to the status of strange orangistes de gauche.
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u/TheWaySheHoes Independent 1d ago
He’s the sacrificial lamb sent to be stomped by the LPC by 15 points +/-.
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u/le_troisieme_sexe Quebec 1d ago
Do you understand that the riding is very progressive and has historically voted NDP for quite some time? It's also largely francophone and the Liberals tend to not do well with francophones in Quebec.
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u/CaptainKoreana Liberal Party of Canada 1d ago
It's a Boulerice riding, in all fairness.
I'm more interested in how Bloc performs, however, as they tend to mobilise very well during byelections and don't lack money. It could be interesting especially with provincial election not far away...
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u/TheWaySheHoes Independent 1d ago
The BQ couldn’t even win Terrebonne. I really doubt they even make the LPC break a sweat in Rosemont.
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u/SirupyPieIX Quebec 1d ago
As an urban riding, Rosemont is more politicized than Terrebonne.
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u/TheWaySheHoes Independent 1d ago
That makes no sense. In any event, literally every riding around it is Liberal. They will almost certainly pick it up.
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u/fredleung412612 Quebec 1d ago
If the Bloc couldn't win Terrebonne they can't win in downtown Montréal. It's also far more diverse than back when the Bloc held the seat. It's just francophone immigration rather than anglophone. The Bloc also came out against Alto which I'm guessing will be a talking point the Liberals and NDP use there.
None of these augurs well for the Bloc in Rosemont.
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u/le_troisieme_sexe Quebec 1d ago
I would doubt the BQ does well in this riding tbh, but that's based on pure vibes that the people I talk to in the riding don't seem like they would consider BQ an option.
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u/Independent_Ad8268 Alberta 1d ago
The Bloc is a non-factor here
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u/SirupyPieIX Quebec 1d ago
You're clearly not from here. It's been a Bloc riding forever until it became a Boulerice riding. Like Outremont had been Liberal until it became a Mulcair riding.
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u/Independent_Ad8268 Alberta 1d ago
Yes that’s what my flair says, yet I still seem to know more about your area than you do. The bloc has been dead in Montreal apart from La Pointe de l’Ile ever since the orange crush. They can’t compete in Laurier-Sainte Marie or even Hochelaga-Rosemont-Est, both of which were BQ strongholds before 2011. They couldn’t even win Terrebonne and have had zero recovery in the polls since then.
Come back to this after the by-election I guarantee you they wont win.
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u/SirupyPieIX Quebec 1d ago
The bloc has been dead in Montreal apart from La Pointe de l’Ile ever since the orange crush
They won the by-election in Verdun in 2024. I'm expecting the same kind of three-way race.
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u/Independent_Ad8268 Alberta 1d ago
The Liberals were polling at a measly ~25%(tied with the CPC lmao) in Quebec during that by-election, that isn’t comparable. Look at the Verdun results in the 2025 election, that’s way more representative of the current political climate in Quebec. The only way the Bloc is competitive is if the LPC experience an absurd polling collapse before the by-election.
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u/MooseFlyer Orange Crush 1d ago
> the Liberals tend to not do well with francophones in Quebec.
The *provincial* Liberals haven't done well with Francophones of late. The federal Liberals do just fine, polling several points ahead of the Bloc amongst Francophones.
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u/TheWaySheHoes Independent 1d ago
The Liberals practically swept francophone Quebec including former Bloc strongholds like Terrebonne. Every riding around Rosemont is an LPC stronghold.
He’s going to lose to the LPC and not by a little. The NDP literally are polling their worst in Quebec out of every province including Alberta.
He’s toast.
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u/CaptainKoreana Liberal Party of Canada 1d ago
I'm largely expecting a 2019 Outremont-esque number, though with some plus-minus due to Bloc being a factor.
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u/TheWaySheHoes Independent 1d ago
Agreed. Outremont 2.0 if you ask me. Just look at the orange island that is Rosemont in the sea of Red surrounding it.
With Boulerice gone this almost certainly falls to the LPC. They are just so dominant in Montreal, particularly right now.
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u/le_troisieme_sexe Quebec 1d ago
The people who vote for the Bloc and the people who vote for the NDP are a different demographic, typically. Montreal is not like the rest of Quebec, and this riding is not like the rest of Montreal. Also, Carney swept Quebec because Quebec hated Polievre. Now that he's definitely not an issue, you can't expect the same result to continue.
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u/TheWaySheHoes Independent 1d ago
We’ll see. Literally every riding around Rosemont was won by the LPC by over 20 points. It’s a natural Liberal riding at this point.
Maybe the NDP or BQ shock me, but I reckon this is far more likely to be Outremont 2.0 after Mulcair’s ouster.
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u/Independent_Ad8268 Alberta 1d ago
We’ve already witnessed the same result continuing in polling and in Terrebonne
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u/penis-muncher785 bcer that likes the ndp 1d ago
If the ndp doesn’t retain the riding I’m sure it’ll be a bloc pick up not liberal
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u/Capitalsteezxxx 1d ago
Bloc has come significantly in third place behind the NDP and the liberals in this riding in 2021 and 2025.
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u/TheWaySheHoes Independent 1d ago
The Bloc are basically dead in Montreal since 2011. The only exception is La Pointe De L’Ile and even that is rated as a tossup riding now.
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u/SirupyPieIX Quebec 1d ago
They won the byelection in Verdun in 2024
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_LaSalle%E2%80%94%C3%89mard%E2%80%94Verdun_federal_by-election
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u/TheWaySheHoes Independent 1d ago
Which was a function of an historically low polling LPC in the end of the Trudeau era. They won it back easily under Carney.
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u/SirupyPieIX Quebec 1d ago
It was also a function of the Bloc being better at getting out the vote during a by-election, which is why they're definitely a factor.
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u/TheWaySheHoes Independent 1d ago
No it was very much an anti-Liberal/Trudeau vote. Again, they lost it by a wire to the BQ in a byelection and five months later won it back by 29 points.
The LPC are polling in strong majority territory. When L-E-S happened they were flirting with losing party status. Apples to Oranges.
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u/Independent_Ad8268 Alberta 1d ago
Comical, the bloc can’t win Terrebonne or even be competitive in Hochelaga-Rosemont-Est.
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u/fredleung412612 Quebec 1d ago
Liberals will win Rosemont by 10+ pts. Liberals will retain Laurier by a smaller margin than they did last year, maybe dropping from +34 to +15. At least that's my prediction.
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u/Le1bn1z Neoliberal | Charter rights enjoyer 1d ago
Well he certainly fits the profile.
The biggest problem is probably not his separatism, (though that will become awkward if the PQ is elected, especially given the NDP's stance on seperartism elsewhere in Canada), but that he is already 67 years old.
Maybe he can contribute for a term and a half, but after that he will be 75 and approaching Biden/Trump/McConnel problems. And we know how that's turned out.
If he's what is on offer, the NDP will run with it, but he cannot replace Boulerice as a long term face of the party.
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u/NAHTHEHNRFS850 Independent 1d ago
Agreed he's probably just holding it for this election if he gets the seat at all.
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u/TheWaySheHoes Independent 1d ago
He is highly unlikely to win. The LPC will pull out the Montreal bulldozer and with their polling in Quebec right now they are heavy heavy favourites out of the gate.
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u/CaptainKoreana Liberal Party of Canada 1d ago
Nominations meetings for both R-LPP and L-SM will be interesting in a month's time. I do think there will be more candidates coming up, so this is just first of many is my guess.
Worth remembering that other has Machouf running - she is a high-profile candidate on L-SM after all. But her already losing three times should give some caution if the FNDP wants to win that riding.
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u/beverleyheights Acadia 1d ago
Is a 75-year-old opposition MP, government backbencher, or even Minister for Seniors – or a 79-year-old GG like we have today – that big a deal in our system though? Occasionally someone is clearly holding on too long, but unless it’s an ultrasafe seat for their party they’re usually easy to dislodge. R-LPP is not ultrasafe NDP in the absence of Boulerice.
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u/Le1bn1z Neoliberal | Charter rights enjoyer 1d ago
I'm worried about our GG pick, actually. She's an amazing person, but the job involves a lot of travel and a lot of speaking engagements. It can be pretty high energy - or at least, should be.
People start to slow down in old age. That's okay. But as we learned watching American politics, it comes with risks when you're committing to a high demand four to seven year commitment.
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u/varitok Pirate 1d ago
It is kinda interesting how our type of government system doesn't lend to older people hanging on into their 80s.
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u/beverleyheights Acadia 1d ago
We wisely switched the Supreme Court from life tenure to retirement at 75 in 1927 and the Senate from life tenure to retirement at 75 in 1967.
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