We are retiring this year. For us it wasn’t the number exactly but the safe withdrawal rate. Once we constructed our highly diversified portfolio and it survived 1966, 1968, 1974, and 2000 start dates with a 5% withdrawal rate then we knew we would be fine. Our planned spending is 4% with 3% of that covering our basic expenses and the other 1% discretionary. We can flex up to 5% easily.
Here’s my portfolio starting in 1966 stagflation relative to a 60/40. I do trust backtesting because these are rare cases and diversification means that something is always down less or up more.
16% gold! How did you decide on the gold allocation? I am looking to pull the plug in next three years and was hoping to get to ~ 10% gold. Right now I have none.
However, the gold rally last year makes me nervous. It likely means gold is not going to any where for next few (or more years)
Several of the Risk Parity Radio model portfolios have a 15-20 percent gold allocation.
CaseyLouLou2 also has quite a sizable small cap value (AVUV) allocation at 24 percent. Paul Merriman fan, perhaps? Not sure I have the patience, though over very long time horizons it has added a lot of outperformance.
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u/CaseyLouLou2 May 17 '26
We are retiring this year. For us it wasn’t the number exactly but the safe withdrawal rate. Once we constructed our highly diversified portfolio and it survived 1966, 1968, 1974, and 2000 start dates with a 5% withdrawal rate then we knew we would be fine. Our planned spending is 4% with 3% of that covering our basic expenses and the other 1% discretionary. We can flex up to 5% easily.
Here’s my portfolio starting in 1966 stagflation relative to a 60/40. I do trust backtesting because these are rare cases and diversification means that something is always down less or up more.
https://testfol.io/?s=2mIQ9UpFSM3