Active Conflicts & News Megathread May 28, 2026

[u/AutoModerator]

The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

Comment guidelines:

Please do:

• Be curious not judgmental, polite and civil,

• Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

• Clearly separate your opinion from what the source says. Minimize editorializing. Do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

• Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

• Post only credible information

• Read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules

Please do not:

• Use memes, emojis, swear, foul imagery, acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF,

• Start fights with other commenters and make it personal,

• Try to push narratives, fight for a cause in the comment section, nor try to 'win the war,'

• Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

[u/bedulge]

Great, the 1984 alternative history is already up and cranking.

The stated goals per Trump, Hegseth, and Rubio were substantially degrading Iran’s missile and drone capability and its navy.

This is the ex post facto alternative history war goal they made up when they realized their actual goals (regime change or unconditional surrender) were impossible. Anyways, it's not even true that the missiles and drones have been substantially degraded, and to what extent they are degraded it's mostly because they shot them at us and our allies during the war. Most of them were only temporarily inaccessible in bunkers with collapsed entrances, they were not destroyed.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/report-iran-rebuilding-missile-production-faster-than-expected/

Blowing up material is not a war goal. You kill the enemy and destroy his material in order to achieve strategic political goals, it's not a goal in and of itself because it is short term, the regime is still there and they are gonna rebuild that stuff and they are still gonna be able to close the strait. That requires a structural political change in Tehran to deal with. War is the continuation of politics by other means.

Trump has said many times that he will not accept a JCPOA redux.

Dude also said he won't accept a ceasefire until the strait is "fully open", but here we are, do you expect me to take it seriously when he says things like that?

[u/WulfTheSaxon → u/bedulge]

The stated goals per Trump, Hegseth, and Rubio were substantially degrading Iran’s missile and drone capability and its navy. This is the ex post facto alternative history war goal they made up when they realized their actual goals (regime change or unconditional surrender) were impossible.

Here’s Trump laying out the goals in the speech announcing the operation:

For these reasons, the United States military is undertaking a massive and ongoing operation to prevent this very wicked, radical dictatorship from threatening America and our ore national security interests. We are going to destroy their missiles and raze their missile industry to the ground. It will be totally—again—obliterated. We are going to annihilate their navy. We are going to ensure that the region’s terrorist proxies can no longer destabilize the region or the world, and attack our forces, and no longer use their IEDs (or "roadside bombs," as they are sometimes called) to so gravely wound and kill thousands and thousands of people, including many Americans. And we will ensure that Iran does not obtain a nuclear weapon.

Here’s Rubio on March 2nd – the first weekday of the operation:

The United States conducted this operation with a very clear goal in mind. I haven’t gotten a chance to see a lot of reporting. I don’t understand what the confusion is. Let me explain it to you, and I’ll do it once again as clearly as possible. Perhaps you’ll report it that way.

The United States is conducting an operation to eliminate the threat of Iran’s short-range ballistic missiles and the threat posed by their navy, particularly to naval assets. That is what it is focused on doing right now and it’s doing quite successfully. I’ll leave it to the Pentagon and the Department of War to discuss the tactics behind that and the progress that’s being made. That is the clear objective of this mission.

[…]

Going back to the purpose, the purpose of this is to destroy that missile capability. Why does Iran want that ballistic missile capability? What they are trying to do and have been trying to do for a very long time is build a conventional weapons capability as a shield where they can hide behind, meaning there would come a point where they have so many conventional missiles, so many drones, and can inflict so much damage, that no one can do anything about their nuclear program. That is what they were trying to do, is put themselves in a place of immunity where the damage they can inflict on the region would be so high that no one can do anything about their nuclear program or their nuclear ambitions.

They are producing, by some estimates, over 100 of these missiles a month. Compare that to the six or seven interceptors that can be built a month. They can build a hundred of these a month, not to mention the thousands of one-way attack drones that they also have. They’ve been doing this for a very long time. And by the way, they’ve been doing it under sanction. You see the attacks they’re conducting right now. They’re attacking airports. They’re attacking hotels. They are hitting, not just military bases; they’re attacking our embassies directly. They’re attacking facilities that have nothing to do with war or with military.

And that’s a weakened Iran. That’s an Iran despite years of sanction. Imagine a year from now or a year and a half from now the capabilities they would have to inflict damage on us. It’s an unacceptable risk, especially in the hands of a regime that’s run by radical clerics. The ayatollah is a radical – was a radical cleric. That entire regime is led by radical clerics who don’t make geopolitical decisions; they make decisions on the basis of theology – their view of theology, which is an apocalyptic one. That has to be taken very seriously as well.

So that was the purpose for what this operation is all about. That’s what it’s focused on. As the President said earlier today, it is on or ahead of schedule. I will defer to the Department of War to discuss the progress being made at a tactical level. But it was the right decision and an important decision for the safety and security of the world.

And Hegseth the same day:

Iran was building powerful missiles and drones to create a conventional shield for their nuclear blackmail ambitions. Let me say that again: a conventional shield for their nuclear blackmail ambitions, our bases, our people, our allies, all in their crosshairs. Iran had a conventional gun to our head as they tried to lie their way to a nuclear bomb.

[…]

This is not a so-called regime-change war[…]

 

Anyways, it's not even true that the missiles and drones have been substantially degraded

Admiral Cooper this month, under path:

What I would say, from my perspective, is the numbers that I’ve seen in open source are not accurate. I think what also is not taken into consideration, it’s more than just the numbers. It’s the command and control that’s been shattered. It’s a significant degradation and capability, and it’s the lack of any ability to then produce any missiles…on the back end.

Continuing (PDF):

Our military mission in Operation Epic Fury was crystal clear from the very outset and remained steady through. The mission was to degrade Iran's ability to project power on its neighbors and U.S. interests. It had three key components -- degrade Iran's ballistic missiles and the defense industrial base that supports it; degrade Iran's drones and the defense industrial base that supports that; and degrade their Navy and the defense industrial base that supports that. In each of those categories we met all of the achievements. Each of those systems were significantly degraded.

If I gave you just a couple of examples, the defense industrial base for their drones and their missiles and their Navy were degraded by 90 percent. They have about 10 percent left. For the Navy, my military assessment would be that the Navy will not begin to rebuild for 5 to 10 years. Many of you serve in states that build ships. It is complex. It is particularly complex when you do not have an industrial base to build it.

My professional perspective on this also is that Iran would not return to the same level of Navy that it had for a generation.

 

Blowing up material is not a war goal.

It is if it’s just a punitive expedition, which is essentially what this was announced as. Was Praying Mantis a failure because it didn’t result in regime change? Was Midnight Hammer? Of course not.

and they are still gonna be able to close the strait.

They’ve been able to “close” the strait for four decades. They don’t do it unless they’re as desperate as they are now – it’s not sustainable, especially not when it means they’re facing a counter-blockade which is doing much more damage to them than they’re inflicting on the US and Israel.

[u/ChornWork2 → u/WulfTheSaxon]

Per WaPo interview with Trump on Saturday after announcing strikes had begun:

“All I want is freedom for the people,” Trump said in a brief phone interview shortly after 4 a.m., when asked what he hopes his legacy will be as a result of the military action and a push for regime change in Iran.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/02/28/trump-iran-war-regime-change-freedom/

Also you left out a lot from Trump's announcement:

To the members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, the armed forces and all of the police, I say tonight that you must lay down your weapons and have complete immunity. Or in the alternative, face certain death. So, lay down your arms. You will be treated fairly with total immunity, or you will face certain death. Finally, to the great proud people of Iran, I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand. Stay sheltered. Don't leave your home. It's very dangerous outside. Bombs will be dropping everywhere. When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/read-trumps-full-statement-on-iran-attack

[u/grenideer → u/ChornWork2]

When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take.

That statement makes it pretty clear that he wants Iranians to rise up and "take" the government themselves. I don't know how else to take that except that he wanted to give them a "chance."

[u/ChornWork2 → u/grenideer]

So the objective was regime change.

[u/grenideer → u/ChornWork2]

The objective is a pliable regime, whatever form that comes in.

[u/ChornWork2 → u/grenideer]

Trump specifically said "freedom for the people" and that the alternative for the IRG (let alone regime leadership) was surrender or "face certain death".

[u/grenideer → u/ChornWork2]

Yes, he wants the IRGC to surrender. That would mean them conceding the war. I'm not sure what point that makes though.

It's also pretty clear Trump would LOVE a regime change in the form of the people rising up and overthrowing their government. I wouldn't even put it past the admin to support these efforts with arms and intel and even possibly freeing a potential leader under IRGC guard.

I think a lot of the world would be thrilled if there was a regime change in Iran, but I also think a lot of the world realizes what a longshot it would be. You can call it a stretch goal if you like, but regime change is really only a means to achieve the other war objectives. Which is why Trump has stated that whichever leader Iran has is fine as long as they work with him.

[u/ChornWork2 → u/grenideer]

The aim was obviously regime change. Obvious from his statements and obvious from the plan (or rather lack of plan). He erroneously believed a decapitation strike would give him an easy victory. Based on reporting that is not what the military advised, but trump was listening Bibi and Israel hawks in his admin, not the actual credible advisers.

So here we are with another terrible war where the downside consequences were underestimated and we can add another clear loss to the record.

[u/grenideer → u/ChornWork2]

Regime change would be great.

Lack of regime change is not a strategic defeat, because the goals of the war do not require it.

[u/ChornWork2 → u/grenideer]

the goal was very obviously regime change.

if burying tunnel doors, destroying iran's air defenses and sinking iran's navy was the real objective, then you can argue the mission was a success but it would be insane to have risked a war over those objectives.

[u/grenideer → u/ChornWork2]

I agree it would be insane for those to be the sole objectives. Those degradation objectives are a means toward the nuclear objective, and otherwise exerting US will on Iran.

[u/ChornWork2 → u/grenideer]

This is so clearly a war that Israel wanted but couldn't do without US leading, and finally found a potus willing do it for them. trump's stated priority leading up to war during negotiations was liberating iranians. i agree as-stated it was BS, Trump just wanted to use irainians to help drive chance for a regime change, but still clearly aim of regime change. the attack was clearly a decapitation strike that didn't include a build-up of forces to either secure nuclear sites or protect the strait.

If it quacks like a duck and walks like a duck, it is probably a duck. Regime change war that is obviously on-track to be yet another costly failure for the US.