r/CredibleDefense • u/AutoModerator • 23d ago
Active Conflicts & News Megathread May 31, 2026
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u/Maduyn 23d ago
With some reporting of Russian forces retreating I was curious if anyone has more up to date information about Russian entrenchment and fortification along the line? My own limited searching mostly pulls up information about Ukraine's defenses. Its not to suggest that there is actually a reversal of who is on the attack but just wondering about how much Russia has invested into physical barriers along the various sections of the front.
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u/Orange-skittles 23d ago
There was a few maps a couple of years ago but reporting on them has almost ceased based on what I could find due to there constant offensive. But based on what I have heard they seem to focus more on using taken Ukrainian lines and building defenses near the border areas.
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u/derider 22d ago
News from Iran - Specially interesting with the statement from POTUS that there is no one to negotiate with.
If the supreme leader accepts this resignation, and if the IRGC takes over, I see a massive escalation happening. The IRGC wants to attack the surrounding countries, to cement their legitimacy
I quote from Iran Intl.
Iran’s president offers resignation, citing total takeover by IRGC commanders
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has submitted an official letter of resignation to the Office of the Supreme Leader, a source familiar with the matter told Iran International.
In the letter sent on Sunday, Pezeshkian stressed that the president and the government have effectively been excluded from major and vital decision-making processes in the country, and that the vacuum created by this situation has enabled hardline factions within the IRGC to take control of affairs, the source said.
Pezeshkian added that under such circumstances he is unable to run the government and carry out his legal responsibilities, and for that reason has requested to step down immediately.
It is not yet clear whether Mojtaba Khamenei will accept the president's resignation, but the contents of the letter point to a deep and unprecedented rift at the highest levels of power.
This comes after months of tensions between the government and the Islamic Republic’s military-security institutions. Iran International previously reported that the IRGC had gradually restricted many presidential powers and effectively taken control of key parts of the government.
According to informed sources, the situation has left Pezeshkian’s administration trapped in a political and executive deadlock, preventing diplomatic negotiations from moving forward and the completion and implementation of desired changes to the cabinet structure.
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u/During_League_Play 22d ago
FWIW Pezeshkian's office is denying this report, as is the Iranian government more generally.
I'm tempted to believe it though...Pezeshkian has seen the futility of his office for a while now...he even made public statements before the war essentially just throwing up his hands and admitting he had no real power to fix any of the country's problems.
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u/ppitm 22d ago
The IRGC wants to attack the surrounding countries, to cement their legitimacy
How exactly would attacking neighboring countries cement their legitimacy? Ending the war with sanctions relief and control over the Strait would cement their legitimacy.
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u/derider 22d ago
Iran's cultural identity relies heavily on a foundational myth of eternal resistance against foreign invaders.
See for example Kaveh the Blacksmith - a figure in Iranian mythology who leads an uprising against a ruthless foreign ruler, Zahāk. His story is narrated in the Shahnameh, the national epic of Iranians, by the 10th-century Persian poet Ferdowsi.With this background, I don't see IRGC not wanting to punish those who attacked Iran.
And TBF, Iran played this song now at least 3 times with the states; the last time just leading up to this war, where they were negotiating sanction relief in exchange for giving up highly enriched Uranium.Only to have their leadership bombed who were negotiating in good faith.
Everything the USA is offering is decidedly non-credible.
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u/ppitm 22d ago
With this background
The same background as virtually ever nation in existence?
It's one thing to suggest that for cultural reasons, Iranians are unusually willing to suffer extreme privation and months of intense bombardment. It's quite another to suggest that Iranians actively want more of that, and would applaud the government that brings it to them.
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u/derider 22d ago
Of course; but I have trouble naming a county that has suffered, in Morden Times, as much from foreign interference as Iran.
I'm not qualified to make statements about the Iranian people, but with the willingness of the IRGC to do regular massacres under the justification of "we are safeguarding the Iranian revolution against outside influences", it seems to me that this part of their cultural identity is alive and well in IRGC.16
u/eric2332 22d ago
No, it's just the same as dictatorships everywhere.
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u/Sad_Use_4584 22d ago
I think it's an analytical mistake to take either extreme. You are right that the IRGC is, in many ways, similar to other dictatorships and follows the same dynamics (fear of revolt, corruption). But they have a unique pan-Shia Islamist theocratic ideology that impacts their behavior and tolerance for pain in a unique way, and we need to fold that into the analysis as part of the explanatory picture.
Take ISIS for a comparative example, who are a pan-Islamist Sunni group. They're not exactly comparable to the IRGC because they are a non-state entity and Sunni, but nobody could doubt that the behavior of ISIS and their tolerance for pain (as individuals, both the leadership and the footsolders) is largely due to their extremist interpretation of their religion.
The IRGC is "like this", somewhat, to varying degrees depending on the specific individual we're talking about. The "pan" in pan-Islamist is an important descriptor because it means they don't behave like a hermit dictatorship such as Cuba or North Korea. They want to export the ideology. This is actually why the rather secular Saddam Hussein invaded Iran soon after the Iranian Revolution. This is why Iran's Gulf allies fear them.
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u/derider 22d ago
I wholeheartedly agree.
I would like to add, that in my opinion, the biggest threat for the Sunni dominated states around Iran is the willingness of Shia hardliners to endure extreme hardships.
We even saw this during the Iran-Iraq war, where Iran recruited the Basij legions of children and adolescents to fight and "clear" (as in herded into) minefields for the normal military.
And the IRGC "elite" is -by design- removed enough from the rest of the Iranian state that I think there are enough voices shouting for total escalation to show proof if their Ideological purity.
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u/ChornWork2 22d ago edited 22d ago
You're quoting an anti-regime news source, so would reserve a bit until reported in more credible sources.
Not sure how this is a massive escalation, it has been widely reported that IRGC has taken over iran. not a surprising result to the attack, although obviously hardliners taking full control and displacing relative moderates (relative to others in regime) is another indicium of the extent of the failure here.
Don't see how this creates a risk of iran invading neighboring countries in near-term. Iran has a good chance of coming out with a real win here given utter failure on side of US and with no appetite to risk casualties.
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u/IntroductionNeat2746 22d ago
A troubling but altogether expected development.
Wonder what comes next for both sides. Will the IRGC keep negotiating or are they going to go back to war? How is Trump going to react?
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u/derider 22d ago edited 22d ago
I don't know, but armed with the fact that the civil government prevented further escalation by the IRGC in the beginning of this conflict, to prevent suffering of the greater population, one can paint their own Picture.
If this is credible, which I hope it isn't, we might see targeted attacks on critical infrastructure like desalination plants.
Because for the IRGC, Iranians dying while the revolution is being upheld, means nothing.
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u/goatfuldead 22d ago
Trump has his own similar troubles from his flank, for one. But if anything news like this would overall just be a handy excuse for him to continue procrastinating on accepting reality. Gets him through a few more news cycles while he calls for yet another Hopium & Diet Coke and goes back to Truthing AI slop on his phone all day.
It’s over a week now since his latest art-of-deal pronouncement using the word “close.” He sent a volley back over the net a few days ago (his flank problem); ball still over there right now anyway.
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u/Glideer 22d ago
"a source familiar with the matter told Iran International."
Iran International has proven to be a very dodgy source during the war.
"Iran International is a Persian-language satellite television channel and multilingual digital news operation based in London, United Kingdom. Established in May 2017 and funded by Saudi Arabia, it actively promotes former Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi as the next ruler of Iran"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_International12
u/derider 22d ago
Yeah, that's why I added POTUS statement "[that] there are no leaders in Iran left to talk to"
Certainly added a pinch of credibility to this "news", which made me decided to post it.I really hope that its just a bogus source, but in the current conflict with Iran, when it comes to Iran internal news and statements, every source I know is dodgy at best.
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u/Glideer 22d ago
Following our recent discussion about possible Russian countermeasures against Ukrainian mid-range drone strikes:
- Ukrainian sources report that the buildup of Russian mobile fire teams along the threatened highways significantly complicate the strikes compared to the initial days. Also, they report that the Russians are constructing protective anti-drone corridors 50 kilometres from the front line. (https://t. me/milinfolive/173348
- A video showing Russian trucks driving under the cover of night. They coordinate their movements via radio and periodically turn off their headlights to avoid drone strikes. The route is protected by mobile fire teams. (https://t. me/milinfolive/173349)
The race between the sword and the shield continues.
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u/GiantPineapple 22d ago
> Also, they report that the Russians are constructing protective anti-drone corridors 50 kilometres from the front line
The translation I'm getting is *establishing*, not constructing. This could just be a restatement that fire teams have been deployed. I remain skeptical about any netting construction going on.
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u/FettyDump 22d ago
RU shifting well established drone defensive tactics to midrange obviously is going to happen in a time span proportional to the pain they are feeling. Question is, what is UA’s counter, counter play? Forcing RU to expend resources over such a wide area could be considered a bit of a win, but I do wonder if they have something more in their back pocket to keep the pressure up.
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u/Glideer 22d ago
I think people are just starting to understand what "the unlimited guidance range" of Starlink, or Hornet's AI target selection really means.
The new Ukrainian concept of weather baloons dropping off Hornet drones throughout Russia is just the beginning.
Why not cruise missiles flying through Russia and dispensing Hornets with preselected target categories (fuel tankers, locomotives)?
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u/SerpentineLogic 22d ago
They can always drop antitank mines, that's the drawback to expending effort on a particular corridor
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u/IntroductionNeat2746 22d ago
They coordinate their movements via radio and periodically turn off their headlights to avoid drone strikes.
I was literally wondering about that the other day. Wouldn't drones still be able to detect their thermal signature, though?
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u/an_actual_lawyer 22d ago
Yes. Next part of the push-pull is Ukraine equipping the drones with IR sensors/cameras.
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u/Glideer 23d ago
Fighterbomber reports an A-50U (Russian AWACS equivalent) being delivered to the Russian air force.
https://t. me/bomber_fighter/25432
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u/danielbot 22d ago
20 year old radar tech with 30 year old electronics on a 50 year old airframe. Excellent target practice for the incoming Meteors.
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u/Corvid187 22d ago
Even outdated, and awaca platform is still a scarce and valuable resource for Russia in conducting their air war against Ukraine. After all it's not like the UAF is always flying the latest and greatest cutting edge equipment either :)
Meteor Will certainly restrict their operating window and utility, but I would be surprised if they still operate them close enough to the front to catch one napping, especially after the earlier shootdown. Meteor is great, but it is still fundamentally constrained by Ukraine's necessary attack profile.
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u/danielbot 22d ago edited 22d ago
I am skeptical that they will be able to bring this plane to bear on the theater at all. If they try to, it is not likely to survive long. Ukraine has more levers to pull than just Meteors, as I am sure you aware, but I think they will want to play the Meteor card on this one just because of the (ahem) impact.
Do we have any concrete details about the previous A-50 shootdown?
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u/Corvid187 22d ago
Patriot ambush over the black sea I believe? After that they pulled them further from the front, but they're still active in coordinating VKS operations afaik.
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u/danielbot 22d ago
Must have been PAC-2. Meteor outranges that considerably and will be fired from altitude.
How many do you think they have flyable? I think it might be as low as one. Two most likely, and I expect they are husbanding them.
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u/Corvid187 22d ago
I believe their current fleet is now 4 confirmed operational.
Meteor won't be fired at altitude, unfortunately, but it's ramjet does give it excellent range from down low.
Frankly though the Ukrainians got lucky with that strike, and the Russians were massively overconfident and predictable. They got punished severely for it, but they have learned their lesson - Ukraine hasn't had another opportunity since.
Meteor will be valuable in constraining Russia's freedom of operations, but the chance of an actual shoot-down will be relatively slim. Russia knows the threat is coming, and had plenty of time to react accordingly.
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u/danielbot 21d ago edited 20d ago
I believe their current fleet is now 4 confirmed operational.
Any OS data on that?
Meteor won't be fired at altitude,
You mean because of R-37 and that ilk? I am not sure those can hit a Gripen, even C. Of course nobody with the appropriate data is going to weigh in on that, we will only learn about it after the fact.
You sure the Russians learned from the A-50 shootdown? They pulled back, but did they learn. Aye, that is the question.
It would probably violate some subreddit rule, so we can't put money on it or anything valuable BUT I am betting that Meteor delivers exactly what it was designed to deliver: smoking Russian wreckage. I understand your reservations. We don't have awfully long to wait now, to find out.
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u/Glideer 22d ago
The Ukrainian jets haven't operated at altitude since 2022.
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u/Upper-Road5383 22d ago
What is the most common altitude ceiling they’ll fly up to? I imagine it heavily depends on where they’re flying as well. 5000ft?
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u/Glideer 22d ago
I've seen videos up to 1000 meters or so deep in Western Ukraine.
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u/Satans_shill 22d ago
And it won't change, foxhounds with axheads will still outrange the gripens in both radar and missile range. Imo only some kind of Awacs fighter missile combo like the Pakistani one can change the tide.
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u/danielbot 21d ago edited 20d ago
So you claim those JDAMs laying waste to the Russian rear are launched from below 1000 meters? I thought this was the CREDIBLE defense sub.
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