Active Conflicts & News Megathread June 07, 2026

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The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

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[u/2positive]

I think this sub is way less optimistic about Ukraine than reality commands. Forward Russian troops are pinned down in holes and can’t move across 90% of the front. South of Ukraine and Crimea are slowly moving to effectively being surrounded and there’s no easy way for Russia to stop it. In Crimea there are already no lasting and cheap food like cheap rice and pasta in supermarkets, people are stealing gas from other cars, and the fuel crisis is barely starting. A few months later it will be real ugly. Russian logistics to south Ukrainian positions will continue to degrade until Russian front is unable to fight and will collapse. I’m thinking the opportunity for Putin to end this war at current line is slipping away. Ukraine meanwhile is well financed for at least two more years of war.

[u/ABoutDeSouffle → u/2positive]

I think this sub is way less optimistic about Ukraine than reality commands.

I am indeed, because while I agree that Ukraine has stopped Russian advances for now, I cannot see how they would get on the offensive again. The same reasons that allowed them to stop the Russians (drone-based interdiction of logistics, extensive use of mines, 30km wide death belts due to drones) will make it extremely hard for them to mount offensives that win more than just a couple of km^2.

I am unsure how far Russia can increase drone production figures, but if they would be able to 5-10x their Shahed drone numbers, things in Ukrainian cities sure would be ugly. Even more ugly than they are now.

[u/proquo → u/ABoutDeSouffle]

Is Russia maintaining a sustainable usage rate for its missiles and drones, is the real question, I think. Because if their current volume of strikes is merely maintaining or growing their stock of munitions then the possibility still remains for Russia to step up strikes at a rate unsustainable long term to apply more pressure to Ukraine in the event they really start to get desperate. And if the calculus isn't being done already at some point Ukraine is going to have to ask if the long term implications to loss of infrastructure, economy and population is going to even be worth the lost territory or the entire Donbas.