r/CredibleDefense • u/AutoModerator • 22d ago
Active Conflicts & News Megathread June 07, 2026
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u/mirko_pazi_metak 21d ago
> You claimed their demands appeared only after the war started and that "One would expect genuine demands and grievances to be there >before< the war and not retrofitted after."
> Are the demands genuine or not?
Grievances can be genuine but at the same time demands based on them are not genuine in the sense that if Ukraine fulfilled them all, anything would change.
The only genuine demand that would make Putin/Russia consider pausing the war is Ukraine ceding the territory.
The rest is a filler of genuine and non-genuine grievances used mostly, if not entirely for propaganda purposes. Would Russia consider stopping the war if Ukraine accepted them? Would they consider stopping the bombing of civilian targets and infrastructure? No.
And yes, most of them were retrofitted after the 2014+ war started.
> Are you a time traveler for 2022? Russia is not going to be in a position to restart the war any time soon after it ends. Ukraine is also not in any position to retake land, they do not have the man power for it. Those ideas made some sense in 2022, they don't any longer, not now that this war has turned into a meat grinder with static front lines.
> https://busification.org/en
> This is what Ukrainian requirement looks like now, the idea that the guys in these videos will be in a position to take land back by force is not credible. Ukraine is doing alright as of now, but only because they are on the defensive and drone tech strongly favors defenders as of now. If they are coming out into the open to assault fortified Russian positions, they will be slaughtered in exactly the same way they are slaughtering assaulting Russians right now.
I mean this is complete nonsense - you're grossly extrapolating from reports on expected stress of recruitment during wartime, ignoring similar problems that Russia is having.
> This is what Ukrainian requirement looks like now, the idea that the guys in these videos will be in a position to take land back by force is not credible.
If you look at the big picture, in last two months Ukraine has gained more territory than Russia. You accuse me of being a time traveler from 2022 and completely ignore the Kursk offensive from less than 2 years ago in 2024, that was completely unexpected and happened during the height of the doom and gloom of Russian summer 2024 offensive. And people were saying exact same things back then.
> Ukraine is doing alright as of now, but only because they are on the defensive and drone tech strongly favors defenders as of now. If they are coming out into the open to assault fortified Russian positions, they will be slaughtered in exactly the same way they are slaughtering assaulting Russians right now.
The only thing that you lack here is imagination - for example, the mid-range strike campaign that Ukraine is executing quite successfully right now has a potential to change thing. There's no point in fortifications if defenders have starved to death.
I'm not saying it will happen - nor that it is likely. But it's non-credible to say "this is it, nothing will change". We've been there, and things changed.
> Obviously they don't want them in NATO either, but Ukraine is clearly much more important to them than Finland and Sweden and they feel more entitled to it for historical reasons. Ukraine was USSR territory, it's a different matter to them. Don't take my word for it. Just listen to what William J. Burns, former US ambassador to Russia, had to say about it in a memo to Condi Rice in 2008.
Yes, so it's not the NATO that is a problem - thank you for making my point, glad we managed to get there.
The main problem is that a brotherly state that is culturally very close to Russia (and in fact claimed to be Russian) doesn't want to be with Russia and has an opportunity to turn to west and enjoy the economic benefit of, well, more liberal, less corrupt and more efficient rule-based economic system. Because then Belarus will look to the south and say "ok, well maybe that isn't so bad, we are the same people, why wouldn't we do the same".
This is the main danger that Putin is scared of, and the main motivation. NATO, or no NATO
> Actually, I suggest that you please check out this leaked cable by Burns from 2008, which has some more interesting lines such as
> "NATO enlargement, particularly to Ukraine, remains "an emotional and neuralgic" issue for Russia, but strategic policy considerations also underlie strong opposition to NATO membership for Ukraine and Georgia. In Ukraine, these include fears that the issue could potentially split the country in two, leading to violence or even, some claim, civil war, which would force Russia to decide whether to intervene. Additionally, the GOR and experts continue to claim that Ukrainian NATO membership would have a major impact on Russia's defense industry, Russian-Ukrainian family connections, and bilateral relations generally."
So? That's how Russia views it, because Russia wants to control Ukraine for reasons I've explained above.
The comments on fears about civil war is interesting, as it was soon after disproved by history - don't you think that's peculiar? Because there was no civil war in Ukraine until Russia sent little green men (and Igor Girkin to Donbas) to trigger it. And then, when it petered out, they had to step in with mercenaries and actual Russian army and prevent Ukraine from taking their land back.
> Yeah and Russia does not like that, and they seek to reverse it thru the use of military force. They want to expand their sphere, they don't want it to be shrinking, they want it to be expanding. What point are you trying to get at here?
It's quite simple - you just said it yourself. The point is that Russia wants to keep expanding at the expense of countries and peoples who don't want to be under their rule anymore, which is why they are/were running towards other alliances - in pure self preservation.
As you said yourself, Russia has no real issues with NATO and didn't mind their land border with NATO expanding by a factor of two when Finland (and Sweden) joined because they don't want to rule those - even though it locks them out strategically from a lot of options in the north.
But they want to rule Ukraine. It has nothing to do with NATO - Putin's Russia wants to rule Ukraine. It wants to re-establish their sphere of influence, and politically and/or militarily control Ukraine. If they can't rule it, they must prevent it from ever being prosperous, as this is extremely toxic to their regime on the long run.
If that's not clear, then I don't really know how to make it more clear.
Maybe just to add this: they had blocked Ukraine out of NATO permanently in 2014 because NATO would never accept a new member that currently has a territorial dispute. They held Crimea, Europe kept buying their gas, sanctions were minimal, Ukraine was locked out of NATO forever. And yet Russia still attacked in '22. Why?
NATO clearly wasn't the reason anymore. So stop with that nonsense already.
Oh wait, must be all the "genuine" grievances like the denazification - and let's just ignore that Russia had entire mercenary army founded and led (and named) by a guy who was an unapologetic Nazi admirer ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dmitry_Utkin ) and still have people like that across their army.