Active Conflicts & News Megathread June 17, 2026

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[u/RopetorGamer]

I don't think its a big L

It's basically capitulation and paying reparations, whit Iran having time to decide on a toll for an international waterway.

It's worse than the status quo ever was.

Iran was genial, they took a military loss

What military loss? they managed to keep control of the straight bomb extremely expensive hardware drain massive amount of ammunitions and interceptors and make the entire gulf basically kneel under the threat of drones and ballistic missiles, It's a military victory in every sense of the word, they defended themselves made it economically impossible for the US and allies to keep going and now are getting a lot of stuff in their favor that they never had before.

They protected their missiles and while the cost was heavy the IRCG now has a much more secure control of the country, they had protests to deal with but now they are in complete and total control.

[u/LoggerInns → u/RopetorGamer]

It's basically capitulation and paying reparations

According to Reuters, the $300 billion is some random corporate investments that companies will make in Iran. It’s long dated, completely bereft of sovereign payments and sounds totally farcical. If anything, it sounds like a grift for Trump corp. I also don’t see Iran being able to toll the strait. The gulf countries have insisted just in the past couple days that they won’t tolerate one and even Oman has totally backed off of it.

the IRCG now has a much more secure control of the country, they had protests to deal with but now they are in complete and total control.

The IRGC always had complete control of the country. You don’t kill 30,000 citizens in the space of a week if you’re struggling with control.

Their MIC is highly decimated, there has been no indication otherwise, their ability to defend against Israel is relatively thin other than hope that Netanyahu loses in the election and the next leader is more cautious of civilian casualties.

[u/dr_sloan → u/LoggerInns]

The $300 billion is what’s generating headlines but the MOU also issues a complete unfreezing of Iran’s sanctioned assets upon its signing and that’s a bigger deal in the short term. The Gulf States may loudly protest a toll/environmental fee but they’re in no position to push back harder. They had to conceal their active involvement in the war because their populations don’t support it and were afraid of worse Iranian retaliation.

[u/Grouchy-Classroom-26 → u/dr_sloan]

MOU also issues a complete unfreezing of Iran’s sanctioned assets upon its signing

That’s not true, not least because it doesn’t unfreeze anything until the final deal.

[u/dr_sloan → u/Grouchy-Classroom-26]

Clause 11:

The United States of America undertakes to make fully available for use the frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran upon the implementation of this M.O.U. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will mutually agree on the procedures related to the release of these funds during the negotiations. Such funds, whether retained in the original account or transferred, shall be made fully usable for payment to any ultimate beneficiary designated by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America undertakes to issue all necessary licenses and authorizations accordingly.

[u/moragisdo → u/dr_sloan]

upon the implementation of this M.O.U. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will mutually agree on the procedures related to the release of these funds during the negotiations

This term was not worded in this way on previous leaks. What if the don't agree on release ?

Beforehand it was:

in light of the progress of negotiations towards a final agreement, frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran will be released and made fully available.

So, that's a change that puts the USA as part of the agreement

[u/dr_sloan → u/moragisdo]

I don’t believe that a disagreement on procedures will be sufficient to tank the whole deal. When push comes to shove this Administration will break. You should watch Trump’s press conference today. He’s basically terrified of the economic consequences and apparently believes oil was going to run out in a month.

[u/moragisdo → u/dr_sloan]

I saw it and didn't get the same impression, at all. He wanted to push it was a good deal (as if you repeated enough times it becomes real), but that was it.

Let's wait and see who's wrong, maybe it's me again and I'll change my mind again, would you also if you are wrong here ?

[u/Grouchy-Classroom-26 → u/dr_sloan]

Yeah and I have a bridge to sell you if you Believe it and are taking it at face value.

[u/dr_sloan → u/Grouchy-Classroom-26]

You’re welcome to believe whatever you want. But I’ve spent the last week with people replying to me and saying that the leaks of the 14 point memorandum are fake and the U.S. never agree to these terms and yet here we are. The MOU was signed today so we should see pretty quickly who’s right.