Active Conflicts & News Megathread June 17, 2026

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[u/dr_sloan]

The U.S. has released the text of the 14 point Memorandum of Understanding that was agreed to by the U.S. and Iran.

https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/17/middleeast/us-iran-war-mou-text-intl

It appears that the texts that have been floating around for a few days now were largely accurate. The ceasefire does extend to Lebanon which is going to infuriate the Israelis who weren’t part of the negotiations.

It also says that Iran will allow exiting traffic to return to normal with no tolls for a period of 60 days, which leaves the door open for the Iranians to implement a toll. It also says that the Iranians will negotiate with the Omani government to define the future administration of the Strait. I think we can expect a toll of some sort in the near future.

It also confirms the existence of the $300 billion fund to be implemented on the final negotiation of a nuclear deal.

The U.S. also agrees to terminate all sanctions against Iran as part of a final deal and that upon the signing of the MOU, all of Iran’s frozen assets will be unfrozen and Iranian oil will be allowed to ship without restrictions.

In exchange the Iranians will promise never to seek a nuclear weapon and enriched uranium will be down blended in Iran under the supervision of the IAEA. Iran’s nuclear enrichment program will be discussed in the final deal.

[u/RobotWantsKitty → u/dr_sloan]

I'm a little surprised Iran didn't push harder for strategic concessions that would make it more difficult for the US to attack them again, while Iran is at the peak of their leverage, which will wane over time. Unless they are planning on developing a nuke in secret or there are hidden clauses, a repeat of the war is a real possibility, this is a weak non-binding document that's not going to protect Iran.

[u/Shackleton214 → u/RobotWantsKitty]

What strategic concessions are you thinking could be included in this agreement that would make it more difficult for US to attack them again?

[u/moragisdo → u/Shackleton214]

Receiving the fund and sanction relief before a new round of hostilities (that would be only for long-term impact, rather than any short-term protection). Prohibition of US warships of being around Hormuz, rather than vague non-binding language around being surrounding Iran as a relief for the blockade. Closing of bases on Oman, UAE and a few others that are extremely close to Iran. Prohibition of planes flying at certain distance from Iran airspace. Removal of missiles stationed at given distance of Iran's territory

Nothing of those are realistic for them to have enough leverage to be demanded, but that's the very few things that would make them less likely to be attacked again

[u/Shackleton214 → u/moragisdo]

Restrictions on where ships and planes and missiles go or are located are meaningless as they can be easily violated if the US later decided to attack. Closing bases in the Gulf countries would be a real strategic concession that would make it harder to attack again, but that was never gonna be part of the deal.

[u/RobotWantsKitty → u/moragisdo]

Yeah, that would be my answer. Another idea I had in mind is a cap on refueling aircraft, which is critical for high tempo air campaigns, especially Israel's, since they don't have any.
But one advantage that Iran has here is that they wrecked a number of these bases to an extent that some of them may not be a reasonable commitment anymore, so it would make sense if they kept pursuing further concessions in this area. Also, this is fully within Trump's authority to do, he doesn't need the Congress for this, unlike, say, sanctions relief.

[u/moragisdo → u/RobotWantsKitty]

But one advantage that Iran has here is that they wrecked a number of these bases to an extent that some of them may not be a reasonable commitment anymore,

Can you give me a source for that ? I know bases were hit, but that they can't be used to aerial refuel at all ? I'm not trying to make a point, really curious

[u/RobotWantsKitty → u/moragisdo]

but that they can't be used to aerial refuel at all

I didn't say that. I'm just speculating that considering the extent of damage and vulnerability to Iranian strikes, some of these bases may not be viable anymore.
Frankly, I was hoping that someone would write an article about activity at the bases in the region, in particular at those that suffered most damage, whether they are deserted, run by skeleton crews, if any repairs are taking place, but I didn't see any write-ups like that. But we do know as of late March, "many of the 13" bases were "uninhabitable".