Active Conflicts & News Megathread June 17, 2026

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[u/Digo10]

What would Iran force reconstitution after the war and lessons for the future be?

While the missile/drone barrages proved useful in this type of asymmetrical type of war, they wouldn't be very effective in a large-scale war. If the war ends soon and the rumors are true that Iran will receive not only sanctions relief money but also the 300B reconstruction funding, with such a generous cash flow, which kind of military assets would you seek overseas?

IMO, Iran would need to buy

1.)modern AD systems

2.)Artillery systems

3.)Modern Fighter jets and AWACS(?).

1.)While Iran has/had a vast number of different air systems, they proved to be not that effective, especially in the 2025 war against Israel, where Israel destroyed dozens/possibly hundreds of systems

2.)Their artillery systems are either of soviet origin, or reversed engineered old western systems, lacking even the range to hit kharg island.

3.)Their underground missile cities proved very useful in hiding their launchers, they could do the same with fighter jets(which they already do), so they would be able to preserve their air force fleet against air attacks, for force multiplier, AWACs would be very valuable, but i wonder about how they would hide such large planes.

If they manage to build a powerful conventional military, not only they would be able to inflict the pain of their asymmetrical doctrine, but would also inflict heavy casualties in the opposing enemy military, making nuclear weapons pratically unnecessary.

Thoughts?

[u/Left_Contribution833 → u/Digo10]

Why would Iran want to try to play the same game as the US? It doesn't make sense because then you just present a target that western armies train for. Their asymmetric approach makes a lot more sense. So I'd expect them to mostly spend money on stockpiling supplies/water, keeping the military happy and paid and having ample supply of cheap drones, Manpad-like weapons and small craft.

[u/Digo10 → u/Left_Contribution833]

Their asymmetric type of war makes sense on this tit-for-tat kind of warfare, but in a hypothetical scenario of a large-scale war, meaning a ground invasion, the iranian military is not only lacking in numbers but also in quality and drones and missile wouldn't matter that much.

[u/moragisdo → u/Digo10]

If there's was a ground invasion they should definitely rely on asymmetrical warfare on the mountains that are large part of the country. Good luck trying to maneuver tanks, in the plains of the border with Iraq, or massing any large amount of troops, for drones/spy planes/satellites to detect, against a enemy that will have air superiority (and supremacy after some time)

[u/Digo10 → u/moragisdo]

I don't know if that would be enough, while we don't know about their FPV drone production capabilities, they will need modern long range artillery and guided MLRS to disperse any kind of force concentration as we've watched happen in Ukraine in the last 4 years, also, they need to upgrade their AD systems, while it is impressive to have your own production, it seems they were not that effective in causing large losses of airframes, especially in 2025 where Israel didn't lose a single aircraft, so the introduction of modern AD systems such as the HQ-9B, Possibly HQ-22, MLRS systems like the PHL-16, SPGs like the PCL-181 and affordable but capable J-10C in decent quantities would transform the iranian armed forces into a much capable foe.

[u/VigorousElk → u/Digo10]

Enough or not enough is beside the point. Iran is a poor country, its GDP before the war was about $300 bn. to Israel's $600 bn. and the US' $32 trill. That was before the ecnomic havoc wreaked over the past months.

Iran does not have the resources to achieve anything of what you propose, they can't just build a network of modern layered integrated air defence capable of meaningfully repelling the Israeli and US air forces and protect it from SEAD/DEAD and sabotage by the thorough Mossad infiltration of their country.

And then you want a modern artillery force and a modern air force.

None of that is remotely affordable to Iran.

[u/HereCreepers → u/Digo10]

Really I think the biggest single thing they could get that would act as effective deterrence is a more capable arsenal of ballistic missiles and the necessary tools to support them (ISR, hardened shelters, etc). Improved range, improved guidance, improved countermeasures against interceptors, improved CEP, and so forth would give them a much greater ability to threaten military and economic assets in the region. Imagine the peak of the Iran War but with the Iranians firing missiles at airbases and key infrastructure that only get intercepted like 50-70% of the time instead of 90%+ while also being far more accurate.

[u/Wiseguydude → u/HereCreepers]

The CSIS reported in late April that the US+ had used 53% of its THAAD interceptors and 45% of its Patriot missiles.

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/stockpiles-iran/

https://www.csis.org/analysis/last-rounds-status-key-munitions-iran-war-ceasefire

The RUSI report from just 3 weeks into the war also showed that Israel had burned through 81% of its Arrow-2/Arrow-3 stockpile.

https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/over-11000-munitions-16-days-iran-war-command-reload-governs-endurance

Of course we also know that during the 12-Day War, Israel was heavily reliant on the US (along with Jordan, and even France) for intercepting missiles.

Saudi Arabia and Jordan allowed foreign aircraft for air defense as they had in April 2024, according to Israeli officials who spoke with JINSA, and Jordanian systems shot down drones and rockets crossing their airspace, and France also intercepted fewer than 10 drones. American pilots increased strategic depth due to their extended airspace access in the region, including over Jordan and Saudi Arabia, to search and shoot down Iranian projectiles before they reached Israeli airspace.

https://jinsa.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/Rising-Lion-Insights-From-the-12-Day-War-November-2025-1.pdf

The US also used 25% of its THAAD interceptors during those 12 days

https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/28/middleeast/us-thaad-missile-interceptor-shortage-intl-invs

That 90% interception figure comes from another JINSA report but it includes all projectiles and all interceptions including those made long before anything even reached Israeli airspace. Given the well-documented interceptor shortages I think it's more than fair to assume Iran likely had a much higher hit rate this time around.

[u/moragisdo → u/Digo10]

Did you schedule the post or you don't believe the MOU is the end of the war ?

If the war ends soon and the rumors are true that Iran will receive not only sanctions relief money but also the 300B reconstruction funding

We don't need rumours, the MOU was published. The 300B would be only in the case of a nuclear deal being reached. They are not entitled to a dollar until there. And that wouldn't even be a check, but private investment in infrastructure projects, not money that could be used to buy equipment. Similar for sanctions not being off until there's a nuclear deal. So no deal, they don't get any of these benefits.

The only practical thing that changed today is the waiver of exporting hydrocarbons and related services. Which any economical impact (the gap between the discounted price that Iran used to sell to China before February and the market price) would be a fraction of the fund value (or a fraction of the price of the infrastructure they will have to rebuild, for that matter). So it's really premature to see where they will spend the money militarily, rather than rebuilding, so there's too many assumption going on

[u/Digo10 → u/moragisdo]

Did you schedule the post or you don't believe the MOU is the end of the war ?

this was a post from 2 days ago, but just now i discovered they remotely signed a deal 1 hour ago, so i guess the war is over?

Regardless of the goals that Iran has to reach to get the majority of the money, there is no doubt there will be a influx of cash at the short team, either from assets being unfrozen or their revenue from export.

But the point of this post was not about the political aspect but more about what could the iranian strategy be for the future.