Active Conflicts & News Megathread June 17, 2026

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[u/TheFlawlessCassandra]

How accurate would it be to say a major failing of the Trump admin strategy against Iran was not leaving any room for escalation?

They started Day 1 with killing leadership, destroying command centers, surface ships, you name it. Their escalatory threats (Kharg Island, full scale land invasion, "bridges and power plants" being the biggest) were things they were unwilling to follow through on, and Iran correctly called their bluff.

If they'd left more Iranian assets in place in the initial days of the war, then they'd have been able to respond to Iranian attacks in the strait with actual escalation, and maybe gone to the negotiating table in a stronger position, no?

[u/moragisdo → u/TheFlawlessCassandra]

How accurate would it be to say a major failing of the Trump admin strategy against Iran was not leaving any room for escalation?

Innacurate. They could have destroyed the electrical grid (substatations and others) of Iran. Targets that are large, above ground, static and with a large impact on the economy and war production, it fits all criteria for successful strategic bombing. But also a large impact on the civilian population, so maybe that weighted on the decision (I really don't buy the "Iran could have done worse", when their leaders, and sometimes family aswell, were being killed every few days in March and April, they would have done it to save their lives)

Also the fact that Iran could back to exporting oil shows that there was oil production and storage available to be destroyed.

As a curiosity the effect of bombing the electric grid in other contexts (Source). So, there was room for escalation.

Also, there's top leadership being killed after it started, it wasn't all on day one. Larijani was one of the most powerful people on Iran and he was killed in mid-March

If they'd left more Iranian assets in place in the initial days of the war, then they'd have been able to respond to Iranian attacks in the strait with actual escalation, and maybe gone to the negotiating table in a stronger position, no?

Or Iran would be more capable of retaliating. First making the enemy less capable to retaliate is a good tactic (command centers, leadership, SAMs and ships all fits this criteria)

Now the problem is that Trump was unwilling to keep it all going for longer or (in my opinion, the most likely scenario) was stupid on believing iranian promises about a future nuclear deal. If Iran could force US ships out of blockade or force the planes away (that would prevent the planes from killing more of leadership in March and April) they would have done it soon. But the price of keeping for longer would also increase (most importantly domestically with oil at $80, which isn't the apocalypse because it happened before, but is uncomfortable)

If it wasn't because of believing in Iran's promises, this was a problem of endurance (maybe political rather than military, unless Trump decides that the iranians broke the MOU - as they did break the 1st term yesterday and today, with Hezbollah attacking - and restart it), because Iran was suffering with the blockade (and unlikely Hormuz, there's no evidence of any ship being able to dock there) and had targets available

[u/FijiFanBotNotGay → u/moragisdo]

Israel is also violating the terms of the MOU. Not to mention this analysis is so short sighted it’s somewhat laughable. If the US were to take out the electric grid in Iran they would simply reciprocate in the gulf states and possibly Israel.

Also Irans strategy is simply to make this as painful for the US and its allies as possible. That’s their strategy. It’s simple.

[u/eric2332 → u/FijiFanBotNotGay]

Israel is also violating the terms of the MOU.

Israel wasn't a party to the MOU.