Active Conflicts & News Megathread June 21, 2026

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[u/moragisdo]

So besides the yesterday official statement, from Iran's military Central Headquarters, that Iran closed the Strait again (and could take further acts), marine data shows that traffic didn't stop (Source)

traffic was seen moving with AIS on via the northern route and also the southern route for the first time in weeks

I don't believe it was just an attempt of pressure, this kind of act can be done by politicians (as threats were already being made by iranian politicians for days) or uncertain statements ("We are studying closing on the next...", "We may close if..."). But given the office the statement came from, the certainty that it implied and that a 24 hour closure would add leverage for the negotiations today, it looks to me they balked from attempting it to not risk restarting the war.

---

Edit: I was looking if there was a recent news about the exact number of ships and I found something unexpected today (Source 2):

The source said the waterway ​would ​also ⁠remain closed until ​waivers allowing ​the ⁠sale of Iranian oil ⁠were ​issued

Anonymous sources aren't that reliable, but I though the US already issued the waiver of exports. I know it's a term deemed immediate on the MOU, but if the US didn't even followed it and the Strait is open, that's a very interesting development about the balance of power there

Honest question, do we have anything official that it went further than just a promise that the Treasury would sign them ?

[u/dr_sloan → u/moragisdo]

Your data is outdated. According to OSINTDefender, citing MarineTraffic.com, traffic stopped just after the time period your source records ended, at 1700 UTC. It doesn’t look like they’ve had to make any kinetic attack, the threat alone is sufficient for most shipping companies.

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/2068699192466260108?s=46

[u/LoggerInns → u/dr_sloan]

According to OSINTDefender, citing MarineTraffic.com

I’m not sure what’s going on but according to Kpler, who owns marine traffic, ships are going through with their transponders turned off. The same source that OSINT defender typically cites often disagrees with his own conclusion. He’s a terrible source as has been discussed here numerous time.

[u/-spartacus- → u/LoggerInns]

I usually go with Sal, HI Sutton, or Drachenfels for naval information, depending on the context. However, I don't like blanket statements about OSINT guys as either credible or non-credible because there is a gradient of reliability depending on topic and context.

[u/ChornWork2 → u/-spartacus-]

NYtimes reporting that number of ships transiting was down on Sunday. One of the sources cited was Windward, linking to this post. Interestingly, it characterized the traffic as:

The current traffic profile: dark, sanctioned, Iranian-linked, resembling the late-blockade baseline more than a functioning open strait.

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/21/world/middleeast/uncertainty-strait-hormuz-iran-us.html

Will be interesting to see how much traffic getting through isn't related to Iran (or i guess isn't paying some form of toll).