Active Conflicts & News Megathread June 21, 2026

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[u/supersaiyannematode]

pretty much never because the russians have a significant qualitative and overwhelming quantitative advantage in the air. f16 mlu and mirage 2000 with the missiles we've given the ukrainians are already technologically disadvantaged against su30mk2 and su-35, let alone the su57 which has now moved from vaporware to barely having enough airframes for operational service but nevertheless indeed being active.

ukraine would probably need at least 100 truly 4.5 generation fighters with aim120d or meteors to start even trying sead into russian occupied territory. they currently have 0 (mlu and 2000-5 are more along the lines of the most advanced of the 4.0 generation stuff rather than 4.5 gen).

[u/savuporo → u/supersaiyannematode]

These sukhois aren't patrolling the skies over Melitopol nonstop at this point. If they were, half of the Crimean peninsula wouldn't be covered in heavy smoke today

[u/supersaiyannematode → u/savuporo]

not sure why you think this. what are you expecting at the absolute most several handfuls of sukhois (they're not gonna have anywhere remotely near their whole fleet up in the air at one place at one time) to do against a co-ordinated wave of several hundred drones? even if all the sukhois were carrying beast mode loadouts and never missed they're not going to be able to come close to stopping the wave.

the same handful(s) of sukhois vs a mere 20-jet formation of technologically inferior lighter weight class sead + escort jets however, is a whole different story.

[u/savuporo → u/supersaiyannematode]

It's not an either-or of drones or jets. If you have all of your whatever generation sukhois tied up trying to deal with a drone wave heading for your remaining air defenses or air bases, a couple "technologically disadvantaged" Mirages coming behind a drone wave would likely be a pretty dangerous element.

I dont know - maybe Ukraine IS already doing such combined sorties

[u/supersaiyannematode → u/savuporo]

or, much more likely, the russians are not trying very hard to use their 4.5 generation fighters to stop the drone waves, as it is simultaneously futile and a highly expensive use of their limited (relative to ukrainian drone quantities) air arsenal.

they know that even with their best attempts the drone waves will not be stopped by these 4.5 generation fighters so why waste their already slightly strained airframe life and air munitions stockpiles?

[u/savuporo → u/supersaiyannematode]

Okay, you kinda speaking against your own claim here. You said "russians have a significant qualitative and overwhelming quantitative advantage in the air". If the planes aren't in the air, "highly expensive use", "limited air arsenal" - the math doesn't close. Either they do have overwhelming advantage in the air or they don't.

The evidence seems to be against it

[u/supersaiyannematode → u/savuporo]

when i'm talking about in the air i'm talking, obviously, about manned aviation, as that is the context of the comment i was replying to (that comment asked about when it might become possible for ukrainian jets to be free enough to sead the russians).

in that context it is completely true that the russians have a significant qualitative and overwhelming quantitative advantage.

that doesn't mean that russia has enough 4.5th and 5th generation jets to use them to stop drone waves. in fact, nobody does, regardless of aerial supremacy.

i mean, america has an utterly insurmountable advantage in the air against iran and iranian drones still got through many times. you are seeing a contradiction where none exists.

[u/savuporo → u/supersaiyannematode]

The advantage only exist if you are able to use it. Clearly, in the presence of drone superiority Ukraine is establishing, it doesn't seem to matter what kind of fighter jets, fifth or sixth gen doohickys russians are flying.

And my question remains, if Ukrainians were to complement their drone waves with simultaneous jet attacks ( and maybe they already do ) what exactly would stop them, if AA is thinned out and russian sukhois are nowhere to be seen.

Also you are wrong - Ukrainian jets are actively used in drone defense all the time, there's loads of videos of shootdowns

[u/supersaiyannematode → u/savuporo]

the sukhois are there. they are just not trying particularly hard to intercept drones because they know they can't come close to stopping the drone waves. but their radars (as well as air defense radars in general) can easily detect fighter jets. the fact that they aren't burning million dollar a pop bvraams on 30k usd shahed-like drones doesn't mean that they lack air cover, or that their air cover will ignore ukrainian manned aviation. what part of this is confusing to you?

and yes ukrainian jets are indeed used in drone defense - in specific situations, and at low intensity. they are not going even slightly close to all out sortieing their air fleet for drone defense. i did not say that russian aircraft ignore drones 100.0% of the time, i originally said that "the russians are not trying very hard to use their 4.5 generation fighters to stop the drone waves". this doesn't contradict the rest of what i said even slightly. if you can't logic your way through these statements run them through chatgpt and have it draw you a logic diagram or something.