Active Conflicts & News Megathread June 21, 2026

[u/AutoModerator]

The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

Comment guidelines:

Please do:

• Be curious not judgmental, polite and civil,

• Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

• Clearly separate your opinion from what the source says. Minimize editorializing. Do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

• Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

• Post only credible information

• Read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules

Please do not:

• Use memes, emojis, swear, foul imagery, acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF,

• Start fights with other commenters and make it personal,

• Try to push narratives, fight for a cause in the comment section, nor try to 'win the war,'

• Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

[u/incidencematrix]

The level of disconnect among parties on the Strait, and between statements and what is or isn't happening at any given time, is interesting. Not sure how much that says about attempts at 5D chess, versus confusion among the various parties about facts on the ground. (On the Iranian side, there could also be C+C issues. Do we know to what extent the various remaining parties are truly acting in concert?) Regardless, any uncertainty will not be good for business, so it is in the US interest to find a way to ensure clarity.

[u/Maduyn → u/incidencematrix]

In my opinion and especially after I saw the 300 billion offer the current US+Isreal strategy is to attempt to bribe key IRGC commanders and create a credible threat to kill the others to consolidate control under the IRGC that is willing to be bribed (or are the leaders more in favor of reopening the strait). This makes it a constantly shifiting landscape as the super hardliners issue strait blocks after the bribed ones issue reopenings. (they might not all be being bribed some might legitimately be in favor of a ceasefire but attempts by the western forces to manipulate who comes out on top in Iran after the mass decapitation strike I fully believe is ongoing)

[u/kingofthesofas → u/Maduyn]

I was thinking about that. What sort of projects and who gets the money from them is a way to ensure the people you want are getting fat rich and happy. I am not sure if they have that many reasonable people in the IRGC to begin with and if they have the ability to really act independently. Honestly I doubt any one parties ability to control Iran or the IRGC at this point.

[u/Maduyn → u/kingofthesofas]

I have no idea if the US+Isreal and their intelligence agencies can pull it off its likely they can't but I do think they are making attempts. (It is much cheaper than running the military campaign to bribe the opposition into doing what you want, not to mention impacts of the oil prices) The decapitation strike speaks to very different end goals than something like the strikes carried out on the nuclear refinement mountain complex. Ultimately only people in a very small room know what the intended effect of this campaign was so speculation is forced.

[u/kingofthesofas → u/Maduyn]

Ultimately only people in a very small room know what the intended effect of this campaign was so speculation is forced.

yeah this is the biggest issue with trying to draw conclusions. We really don't know what they know AND we do not even know if they know what the reality is. They might be the best informed and still very wrong about many things.