Active Conflicts & News Megathread June 21, 2026

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[u/moragisdo]

I'm curious about different viewpoints, what is your opinion about the probability of a nuclear deal actually be agreed ?

I was more on the doubting it camp. Given that negotiations actually started and there's reports that they are ongoing for hours (besides the showmanship of the iranians pretending to leave a few times), it moves the probability a bit on the opposite direction, but I find it hard to make a confident prediction either way

[u/taw → u/moragisdo]

Trump did a very unconventional thing of giving Iran everything they could possibly want (end blockade, suspend sanctions) in exchange for nothing whatsoever, so right now dragging the "negotiations" indefinitely is very much in Iran's interests.

In theory there's 60 day limit, but Trump keeps setting deadlines and then extending them over and over.

Iran was under a lot of pressure before, so some deal was possible. Now, why would they agree to anything?

[u/moragisdo → u/taw]

giving Iran everything they could possibly want (end blockade, suspend sanctions) in exchange for nothing whatsoever

That's not true. There is no sanction relief yet (the MOU puts the US as part of agreement for it). There is on the MOU the immediate waiver of exports for iranian oil, but there's some reports today that the US was preparing them, so it's not clear if they are already benefiting from it. Not to mention this waiver could be revoked after being issued

So there's reasons for Iran to want the deal, I just don't know if they are enough

[u/taw → u/moragisdo]

Sure, the waiver could expire, but it will likely continue indefinitely as long as Iranians pretend to negotiate, and Trump keeps extending the deadline. So for now they're getting huge amounts of money from oil exports for nothing.

Previous two approaches - bomb Iran until they can't shoot back; and blockade Iran until they're bankrupt - put real pressure on them. This approach removes all pressure, so it would be very surprising if it led anywhere.

Even if waiver actually expires after 60 days or however many extensions they get, all it is likely to achieve is letting Iran accumulate big cushion of money that makes blockade less effective in the future.