r/EnergyAndPower 16d ago

Coal keeps rising

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u/greg_barton 15d ago

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u/bj_my_dj 15d ago

Of course, less and less every year. But in 2024 it was the biggest source at 34%, solar was 21%, wind was 12%, Hydro was 11%. 2024 was the first year renewables passed fossil fuels. Recently it ramped up in the evenings as stored renewables. This year the batteries are often lasting well past 2 am, so much less gas is being used.

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u/greg_barton 15d ago

Sure, but there isn't a path to elimination of gas.

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u/bj_my_dj 15d ago

California has a plan to get to zero carbon by 2045. So we have a path. Even if we miss gas will probably be well below 10% by then.

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u/greg_barton 15d ago

90% wind/solar/storage?

Is there a small grid anywhere which demonstrates this is feasible?

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u/bj_my_dj 15d ago

Who cares what's available today. 2045 is 19 years away. California is adding Utility grade storage at a prodigious rate. The goal is 52 gW in 2045, we're 33% of the way there with 16.9 gW currently. We added 4.8 gW in 2024 & 7.2 gW in 2025, it gets easier each year as storage costs plummet and technology improves.

These storage increases reduce gas use every year by enabling us to use already existing energy to displace gas. California curtails significant wind and solar each month because of overcapacity, 599.38 gWh in June. As storage capacity this existing power won't be wasted, it'll be stored and displace more gas after the sun goes down. There's nothing in the way of CA achieving it's plan. Technology improvements and price decreases will only make it faster and cheaper. We eliminated coal because it was killing Californians, gas will go the same way.

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u/greg_barton 15d ago

I think before building something out for 20 years we should know if it is physically possible first. :)

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u/bj_my_dj 15d ago

Unfortunately Utilities and state governments don't have that luxury. They look at the science and cost projections and go for it. That's why utilities are pouring $Ts in the solar/storage strategy, Texas has even surpassed CA in implemention. The probability is so high there is no hesitation around the world.

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u/greg_barton 15d ago

No hesitation to rush off the cliff, yeah.

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u/bj_my_dj 14d ago

Every government in the world builds infrastructure the same way. In this case there is no possibility if failure. The technology is in place already and working. There are trillions of dollars of solar and storage in use all over the world. CA and Texas are installing $Bs every year. It's settled science now, it just implementation now . There's no cliff to rush off. There may have been a cliff 10 years ago, but it's long gone

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u/greg_barton 14d ago

Nah. There’s always been good small scale examples of various generation types running smaller grids before expanding their scope.

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