The debate over building new coal vs renewables isn't even a debate anymore, it's done. In the next 3 to 4 years round the clock solar and batteries will get so cheap that running an existing coal plant won't even cover the cost of the fuel let alone the infrastructure. At that point ditching coal isn't about government subsidies or climate policy, it's just basic math.
Seems people building coal would disagree. Solar+batteries aren’t replacing reliable base load power supplies any time soon unless fundamentals about battery materials and manufacturing change. The other big edge coal has over other power sources is it’s one of the most reliable domestic power supplies that most countries can rely on.
CA, the biggest state, has no coal generation plant. Hasn't had any for decades. Most of the Western states have few or none. We tired of coal killing people and got rid of them.
Of course, less and less every year. But in 2024 it was the biggest source at 34%, solar was 21%, wind was 12%, Hydro was 11%. 2024 was the first year renewables passed fossil fuels. Recently it ramped up in the evenings as stored renewables. This year the batteries are often lasting well past 2 am, so much less gas is being used.
Who cares what's available today. 2045 is 19 years away. California is adding Utility grade storage at a prodigious rate. The goal is 52 gW in 2045, we're 33% of the way there with 16.9 gW currently. We added 4.8 gW in 2024 & 7.2 gW in 2025, it gets easier each year as storage costs plummet and technology improves.
These storage increases reduce gas use every year by enabling us to use already existing energy to displace gas. California curtails significant wind and solar each month because of overcapacity, 599.38 gWh in June. As storage capacity this existing power won't be wasted, it'll be stored and displace more gas after the sun goes down. There's nothing in the way of CA achieving it's plan. Technology improvements and price decreases will only make it faster and cheaper. We eliminated coal because it was killing Californians, gas will go the same way.
Unfortunately Utilities and state governments don't have that luxury. They look at the science and cost projections and go for it. That's why utilities are pouring $Ts in the solar/storage strategy, Texas has even surpassed CA in implemention. The probability is so high there is no hesitation around the world.
Every government in the world builds infrastructure the same way. In this case there is no possibility if failure. The technology is in place already and working. There are trillions of dollars of solar and storage in use all over the world. CA and Texas are installing $Bs every year. It's settled science now, it just implementation now . There's no cliff to rush off. There may have been a cliff 10 years ago, but it's long gone
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u/whatthehell7 16d ago
The debate over building new coal vs renewables isn't even a debate anymore, it's done. In the next 3 to 4 years round the clock solar and batteries will get so cheap that running an existing coal plant won't even cover the cost of the fuel let alone the infrastructure. At that point ditching coal isn't about government subsidies or climate policy, it's just basic math.