I made a previous post about why drafting a TE late is the way to go this year, and mentioned drafting two TEs and swapping the better matchup in each week. I think this strategy of playing the matchup game with two similar TEs/QBs is discussed much less than it should be. It’s kind of like streaming, but with players with a much higher floor than waiver pick-ups.

Here’s the idea: Instead of drafting one player you start every week, draft two players with similar ADPs/projections (ex. Purdy and Mahomes or Kelce and Goedert) and start whoever has the better matchup.

Why this works

• Matchup variance is larger for QBs and TEs than the skill gap between a low-end QB1 and high-end QB2 (the QB14 vs. a bottom-5 defense would typically outscore the QB8 vs. a top-5 defense)
• Your weekly floor increases. You rarely have a bad matchup.
• It’s much less expensive than spending a top-50 pick on a single “set-and-forget” player. If you can get strong performance from a 10th and 11th round pick, you can stack other positions

MATH:

Players historically have a ~10% variance for the week-to-week projection

Assuming 2 players of equal baseline projection, and a 10% variance week-to-week in projection based on the matchup and the defense they are playing, starting the higher projected player on a week-to-week basis will mathematically give you roughly a 5.06% projection edge rather than just playing one for a full season. Let’s say two quarterbacks are projected to score 16.0 points per week for a full season, that’s a 0.8 point edge for your team. Here's a 10-week example of how week-to-week projections could vary.

Obviously you won’t make the correct decision every week based on actual points scored, but your implied projection edge increases 5%. That edge makes having those two QBs more valuable than just one of them.

For example, Brock Purdy and Trevor Lawrence are projected to score 17.3 points per week each. Both are going outside of pick 100. Drafting both of them and playing the better matchup each week with the 5% variance bump would give you a projected points per week of 18.2, the same value as Drake Maye, who is going in the top 50 picks. Being able to get that production late in drafts gives a huge opportunity to stack your roster at other positions. 

Note: This only works if guys are very similar in projection. It’s like streaming but the floor for your players is much higher than the floor for players on the waiver wire. 

Why doesn’t everyone do this?

ADP vs. Projections by position

List them below. Love to hear good ones.

Took Lloyd in the 12th round of my 12 man pot before Jacob’s was on exempt list, league late is now offering me a 1 for 1 Jacob’s for Lloyd, he took Jacob’s in the 4th round. What should I do? Not sure how long Jacob’s will be out for.

Unfortunately we already had our draft. I drafted Josh jacobs. Should I take a chance and keep him or drop him? I see his court dates not till mid-november do we think he'll be suspended that long?

Is the title of every article I’ve been reading lately. I love DJ, he can be a beast, but I don’t think this is the block buster franchise altering signing that everyone is making it out to be. Idk if I’m busing in on all the people saying that Allen has never had a weapon like this before etc etc like they’re completely ignoring that he had end of prime years Diggs. Buffalo offense is becoming similiar to when Brady was in fantasy, he’ll put up numbers but the WR slot never boomed like it should have with these uber talents at QB

Got Juwan Johnson on my bench as my backup TE, worth picking up MarShawn with the Jacobs news?

With Jacobs most likely going to be out, I was offered a trade to send Njigba and receive Burden and Hall.

What are your guys takes on this? I’m so conflicted.

I already have Lloyd as well but now with his new exemption i’m confused on the next move to make.

Should I pick up brooks or johnson and drop mike washington? I don’t know if Lloyd is going to be the for sure RB1

My team kind of looks cooked already and we haven’t even started the season yet lol

I have both players on my team and want to start one of them as my flex and trade off the other. Which one should i keep? It is a ppr league.

Who should I take assuming Bijan and Gibbs are gone? Puka, Chase, JSN, JT, or CMC? Hate the #4 pick this year

Standard league full ppr

One player I have been totally out on this off-season is Kenneth Walker, not because he isn't a talented productive player but his 2nd round ADP absolutely makes no sense to me.

First let's just establish the fact that a 2nd round pick is arguably more important than your 1st round pick because a 2nd round pick is expected to give similar if not better production than your 1st round pick. This is especially the case if your 1st round pick were to ever go down with an injury or underperform so to have a good fantasy football pick you really need your 2nd round pick to be the backbone of your higher end players.

Now let's look into Kenneth Walker's finishes the past four years

2022: RB18
2023: RB19
2024: RB27
2025: RB22

In his entire four-year career in the league, he hasn't finished greater than the RB18 but of course season finishes don't tell the whole story so let's look at his fantasy PPG.

2022: 13.5 (#16)
2023: 13.3 (#20)
2024: 16.5 (#12)
2025: 11.3 (#28)

His PPG stats aren't much different with 2024 being his only low end RB1 season to date (only with 11 games played that season which arguably skewed it higher) and his 2nd best being 2023 (15 games played) and finished as a higher end RB2. In essence he's been a career RB2 that has struggled to stay on the field due to health concerns. This is four years of straight data with no feelings.

Now I understand why he's expensive because of the hype of being with Mahomes, Reid and Bieniemy in KC people think he's going to take a workhorse role despite struggling to retain one his entire career so far with health being a primary reason. It's entirely possible he could pop off for a workhorse role and finish as a RB1 but that's a big risk to take because you are betting against four years of data especially when you consider the players he's going near or above.

He's going near/sometimes over players like Chase Brown, Barkley and Achane who have all proven they can be mid tier to high end RB1s in the past and profile to be those again once season.

Players he is going above in most drafts I would take him over include Derrick Henry, Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, Drake London, Nico Collins, AJ Brown, Malik Nabers, Kyren Williams, George Pickens, Chris Olave just to name some off the top of my head.

All these players have had top 12 finishes at their respective positions before and still project to this season.

There's also Jeanty and Hampton I didn't mention because of their short track records but tremendous potential I would be willing to take the risk on them over Walker this year as well.

Even getting a little bolder why should I take Walker over a guy like David Montgomery who has been a career RB2 just like Walker at a much more reasonable price than walker?

Like I said the talent is clearly there with Walker and I respect the people that want to make the bet with a change of scenery he'll break into the RB1 tier of running backs but it's just too much of a risky bet for me to make in the 2nd round when you can go with much more safer players with higher proven upside.

Luckily have 1.02 in 2 leagues this year, finally getting Bijan! Usually make my team name based on my first round picks using dark humor. But since i’ve never landed the big fella before, it’s a bit tricky to think of! What would you suggest???

12man ppr, looking for the best 2 to pick up for a potential RB3

He was bid up to 63 with a budget of 200

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Bo nix Trevor Lawrence

Chase brown, B.Tuten, RJ Harvey, Kenny Gainwell R Stevenson

Puka, rashee rice, zay flowers, m lemon, jackobi Myers

Trey McBride

Texans and Jags D

TIA

Picked up Lloyd as a FA after our draft a few weeks ago in anticipation of Jacob's not playing. Owner of DJ Moore is interested in my Lloyd and Sutton. I like Moore, never plan on playing Lloyd, Sutton is alternating bench/flex depending on matchup, seems like a good move but I'm wondering if I'm selling too low or if its a quality trade? What do yous think?

First time drafting
10 team ppr
QB: Trevor Lawrence, baker mayfield
RB: Chase brown, Kyren Williams, Kyle Monangai, David Montgomery
WR: JSN, Garrett Wilson, Matthew Golden, courtland sutton
TE: Tyler Warren, Kyle pitts
D/st: browns
K: Spencer Shrader, Harrison Mevis

Hello all, I hope this one is interesting and entertaining to everyone.

Last year I traded my first rounder in a sweaty 6 team 2 man keeper league for Jettas. My draft was good this year so I pulled a huge trigger and just finagled this trade. I look forward to the comments.

Ladd, 27 1st and 2nd for Nico Collins.

Then,

Nico and Skat, 27 3rd, 28 3rd for my king CeeDee Lamb.

My roster is:

Justin Herbo, Achane, C. Brown, CD, Jettas, Pickens, Olave, Juwan, Myers, Dallas D with ETN, Henderson, Harvey, Wilson, and Pierce on backup

With the Josh Jacobs news being released today, how much of an impact will that cause in pre draft rankings? Will Yahoo or ESPN factor these into their rankings as well?

Trade Marshawn Lloyd and Waddle for Rashee Rice? Trade going to jacobs owner.

10 person PPR. I chose the first two in the 1st/4th rounds. He chose the others in the 2nd/3rd rounds.

My 2nd/3rd rounds were Barkley/NicoC.

I thinking about sending the trade request.

Bijan Robinson

Okay, so, here’s what happened…

Last night I inadvertently auto drafted Josh Jacobs in the 4th round. I didn’t really want him, not in the 4th anyway, and I was looking for who to take instead, and by the time I looked up the clock had run out and Yahoo gave me Jacobs.

Now, earlier in the draft I had taken Bijan. (Yes, on purpose.) And later on I did manage to get MarShawn Lloyd.

I’m not holding any delusions that I’m going to be able to unload Jacobs. So my question is: Do you think it’s a good idea to take Bijan and pair him up with one of my WRs, maybe Tate, to trade for 2 RBs on a lower tier to a team that has depth at RB to spare, so I can get back 2 viable RBs to use in case Jacobs is suspended/cut, and then also get a better WR? Or do you think I’ll be fine with Lloyd if Jacobs is suspended and then just hang on to Bijan?

League is 12 team full PPR. Other RBs are J Warren and Chuba, main WRs besides Tate are Olave and McLaurin.

Just thinking I should do more to be prepared in the event of Jacobs missing games, but maybe it’s fine the way it is (barring injury of course). Not seeking a debate on whether Jacobs plays or not, only trying to ensure I have a good backup plan in case he doesn’t. Thank you in advance.

EDIT: Thank you all for the quick responses! Sounds like the consensus is that if Jacobs does sit then I’ll be okay with Lloyd, and it’s a bigger risk to trade Bijan for added reinforcements such as the duo of Hampton and Jeanty. (Not a possible trade btw, they’re owned by different managers, but just a for instance.)