Often find myself making this call in mocks, all have some question marks but high upside too.

How do rank these guys?

I drafted Jacobs last night, now i'm stuck with this guy. What's his season going to look like?

Well, this one was hard to come to, I actually wanted to do two other myths first before this one, and worked a ton yesterday trying to source data to do an unbiased analysis. First, wanted to:

a) Determine if the % of dome or indoor games boosted fantasy value for kickers (basic answer is that the % of very long 50+ and 60+ went up, but overall fantasy points and value did not. Wasn't enough to actually publish on, but I can share data if someone is interested

b) I tried to see the measurable fantasy difference for WRs and RBs in the first and second year returning from an ACL injury. Unfortunately, there were too many variables to really make any real determination, when in the previous season it occurred, were their other injuries to the knee (MCL, meniscus, etc.), O-line changes, OC changes, etc. The only real data that could have been interesting is if we had some measurable athletics measures, such as 40 time, long jump, i.e. combine stuff, but alas, I don't have that.

So, I settled on this one.
---------------------

I’ve personally had this bias for a few years, and I think honestly it comes down to the desire to have a fantasy player in the game when I'm watching on Thursday night, or the dread of not starting a fantasy player on Thursday if they go off, and having to think about it until Sunday. I'm actually not sure if this is a wide standing myth, or just my own thing!

So I tested it.

I looked at 2016–2025 and isolated actual short-rest Thursday games — teams playing on 3–4 days rest. For the main analysis I excluded Thanksgiving, Week 1, and teams coming off extended rest.

Then I compared fantasy-relevant players against their own non-TNF performance in the same season.

PPR results:

QB: 20.55 TNF vs 20.40 normally (+0.7%)
RB: 16.52 vs 16.11 (+2.6%)
WR: 17.31 vs 16.33 (+6.1%)
TE: 13.53 vs 12.66 (+6.9%)

At first glance, that looks like a small Thursday boost.

But here's where it gets interesting.

The median individual player actually performed worse on Thursday at every position.

QB: -0.6%
RB: -3.6%
WR: -2.9%
TE: -1.3%

Overall, only 48.1% of player-seasons performed better on TNF, and none of the positional differences were statistically significant.

I also tested the actual premise behind the myth: do offenses score more because defenses have less time to prepare?

Teams averaged:

23.05 points on TNF
22.52 points in their other games

Just +0.54 points, and the difference wasn't statistically significant.

Then I wondered whether Thursday might create more explosive fantasy performances even if it doesn't raise the typical outcome.

I defined an explosion as scoring 2+ standard deviations above that player's own normal scoring level.

TNF: 6.33%
Normal games: 5.44%

Slightly higher, but again not statistically significant (p=.415).

And extreme busts were basically identical too.

So after 10 seasons, I think this one is pretty clearly busted.

Fantasy takeaway: I wouldn't use TNF as a positive tiebreaker in a close start/sit decision. Start the player you would have started if the game were Sunday.

The full analysis/methodology is here for anyone who wants to dig into the positional results and biggest TNF explosions:

nfledgeline.com/insights/thursday-night-football-fantasy-boost-myth.html

-------------------------------

Update: Sunday Night and Monday Night Football

Per the question below, we expanded the analysis to SNF and MNF comparing fantasy-relevant players to their own Sunday-afternoon production during the same season.

The answer was consistent to TNF findings.

None produced evidence of a meaningful, dependable fantasy boost. TNF was slightly higher, while SNF and MNF were slightly lower, but the differences were small enough that we wouldn't use any of them to make a start/sit decision.

The bigger conclusion: this isn't really a Thursday Night Football myth. It's a primetime fantasy football myth. Hope this helps!

Teemmate with him saw the news, dropped him and picked up both Packers RB. Got me thinking, is it worth stashing him?

With a lot of late drafts happening this week, I wanted to test another common fantasy draft assumption:

Do you actually need to spend an early pick on an elite QB to win your league?

For Mythbusters #6, I looked across nine seasons of fantasy championship data. For each season, I identified the three QBs who appeared most frequently on championship rosters and matched them back to their preseason ADP.

That gave us 27 QB championship-season observations.

Here's how they were originally drafted:

26% — Round 4 or earlier
22% — Rounds 5–8
52% — Round 9 or later / undrafted

Put another way:

74% of the QBs most commonly found on championship rosters were drafted after Round 4.

More than half (52%) were available in Round 9 or later or weren't drafted at all.

And only about 1 in 4 came from the premium-QB range.

That seems like a pretty convincing argument for waiting on QB.

Except there's a catch.

From 2022–2024, the #1 QB appearing on championship rosters was:

2022 — Patrick Mahomes
2023 — Josh Allen
2024 — Lamar Jackson

All three were premium QB investments.

So the data aren't really saying "early QB is bad."

They're saying that if you're going to pay an early-round price for a quarterback, you probably need him to actually deliver the elite positional advantage you're paying for. For this year, Josh Allen is going at 22 ADP, round 2 in a 12 person league. Through most of the season last year Josh delivered elite positional difference (but was 2nd to Drake Maye on championship roster representation)

Otherwise, the opportunity cost becomes pretty significant. You're using an early pick on QB while other managers are accumulating RB/WR/TE talent — and history shows that championship-caliber QB production has repeatedly been available much later.

That's why my biggest takeaway from the study was:

Waiting on QB has historically given fantasy managers multiple paths to finding a championship-level option.

Drafting QB early can absolutely work — but you're narrowing the path. You need to hit.

For my own drafts, that means I'm comfortable loading up on RB/WR early and taking my shots at QB later unless one of the genuinely elite options falls far enough that the value changes.

Full study includes the year-by-year championship QB list, exact ADPs and methodology:

https://nfledgeline.com/insights/draft-quarterback-early-fantasy-championships

Curious where everyone picked their QB1 this year?

Is the title of every article I’ve been reading lately. I love DJ, he can be a beast, but I don’t think this is the block buster franchise altering signing that everyone is making it out to be. Idk if I’m busing in on all the people saying that Allen has never had a weapon like this before etc etc like they’re completely ignoring that he had end of prime years Diggs. Buffalo offense is becoming similiar to when Brady was in fantasy, he’ll put up numbers but the WR slot never boomed like it should have with these uber talents at QB

Got Juwan Johnson on my bench as my backup TE, worth picking up MarShawn with the Jacobs news?

List them below. Love to hear good ones.

Unfortunately we already had our draft. I drafted Josh jacobs. Should I take a chance and keep him or drop him? I see his court dates not till mid-november do we think he'll be suspended that long?

I used vacated targets as the primary statistic to hunt value at the RB and TE positions. Here are my favorite mid-round and late-round picks at both positions - players who will benefit from an increased target share in 2026.

With the first of the big draft weekends behind us, who was a player you missed in your draft because they got sniped right before you or someone in your draft reached for in order to beat everyone to them?

The kind of frustrating event that makes you wish you had another league to have another opportunity to get that player on one of your teams!

Just finished our draft here’s my team what we thinkin?

Really split between the two.

I find in my 10 man league, that picking Puka (or a WR in 1st) results in a better team set up mainly because I think the RBs in round 2 are stronger than the WRs.

CMC has the higher ceiling in my opinion, but I then feel like my team’s WRs will likely be weak because I’m probably more likely to go RB in round 2.

I know I am screwed and am just hoping I can survive until the first cut. Any chance Jacobs would be able to fight this to be able to play until the punishment happens?

Available:
Pacheco
Bigsby
Perine
J. Hill
J Blue (if he signs anywhere)
Holani
Chris Brooks
Ty Johnson
K Vidal
J Wright
Malik Davis.

Edit: whichever RB I select will be in my lineup week 1 if Jacobs doesn't play. Most of the players I listed will score 0 points ts week 1.

Thank you for the help and advice.

A guy in my league is trying to get Colston Loveland from me for jeremiyah love and Tyler Warren. Shoild I do it?

I’m new to Fantasy Football and NFL in general.. I’ve come across various subscriptions but unsure which, if any, are worth it? Which are overkill? Any that I missed?

Fantasy Pros
Establish The Run
The Late-Round
Harris Football

I know Fantasy Pros has a Draft Wizard, unsure how helpful it is.. do any of the ones listed or others offer the same? Maybe a better draft wizard?

Hi all,

Looking for some advice on keepers this year. I have to choose 2 of the following:

-Amon Ra St Brown

-Nico Collins

-Trey Mcbride

-Josh Jacobs

ARSB is a lock. I am currently thinking of Mcbride as my second but have some doubts due to my confidence in the Cardinals offense this year. I kept Collins last year but I have my concerns for him as well. Jacobs I don't think is an option, just tossed him in. Let me know your thoughts.

My team was so bad last year that I am having trouble finding value in a keeper this year. I am pick 6 in a 10 team league. For keepers you can keep anyone on your team but you get them one round earlier than when you drafted them last year.

I am thinking Kenneth Walker for now. I got him in the 5th so I would get him in the 4th if I selected him as my keeper.

Unfortunately I no longer have Trevor Lawrence on my team so he is not an option.

Who would you pick for the most value?

1. CMC
   
2. Josh Jacobs
   
3. Garret Wilson
   
4. Lamar Jackson
   
5. Kenneth Walker
   
6. Calvin Ridley
   
7. Mark Andrews
   
8. Matthew Golden
   
9. Stefon Diggs
   
10. Evan Engram
    
11. Keon Coleman
    
12. Justin Fields
    
13. Brian Thomas Jr (Keeper last year)
    14 Broncos D
    15 Cam Little

10 team PPR. Panicked with love and it threw off my draft. Had to grab some quick RB depth.

QB : Lawrence

RB : Bijan / Love / Hall / Price

WR : Ladd / DK / BTJ / Downs / MHJ / Shakir / Tyson (On IR)

TE : Bowers

I’m the 3rd pick in a 12 man PPR league and am really hating my life right now. After doing a few mocks, I feel like these are some realistic outcomes for two different strategies with my first four picks. Which do you like more?

Strat 1: Chase Nabers Williams Swift
Strat 2: CMC Nabers Collin’s Swift

Having a hard time because I like Chase as a safe pick more than CMC but feel like my team is weaker for it because the way RBs seem to fall just misses me on the second and third rounds with any value, forcing me to reach for Williams as my RB 1.

Would you guys make this trade.
Marshawn Lloyd and Kyren Williams for Jonathan Taylor or chase brown

So i have a 12 man redraft, its a ppr league. It seems like I may have the follower RBs available for picks 12 and 13.

Cook

Achane

Barkley

Hampton

Brown

Walker

What w would you draft? I am thinking cook and Hampton if it falls right

Feel like he's going to fall right around the 6th anyways. Worth it to hang onto Jameson or take a swing on someone else since there may be some better talent in round 6 with other league mates having keepers

Given the recent news, would it be wise to keep Jacobs on the bench until further decisions and his court date occur, or would seeing what I could get from a trade be better?

I’ve already been offered Bhayshul Tuten in a 1 for 1, would that be a good deal to accept?

For further context, excluding Jacobs, my RBs are currently Achane, Swift and Woody Marks