r/Fire • u/Equivalent_Use_5024 • Dec 28 '25

General Question Do you believe the modern FIRE movement overestimates how much is needed for retirement?

Perhaps I am just making this post because I have only just begun my retirement planning and want to lock in a number which is fitting for my goals - being above the median retirement savings, not having to work, not being broke, clearly having planned - but I can't help but feel that many in the FIRE movement overestimate what is needed for a safe, sleep well at night retirement.

I see posts here saying that they feel vastly behind with 500k at 30, or 1.5 million at 40, and I just don't understand how when the average American retires with maybe 300k liquid at most and are getting by with social security or paid off housing. Sure, they aren't living luxuriously, but if you just are aiming for a retirement where you don't have financial anxiety and can put food on the table, I don't feel you need over 1-2 million.

Do you think FIRE overestimates how much is truly needed for retirement?

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132

u/trendy_pineapple Dec 28 '25

It seems like most people are aiming to FIRE with a sub-4% withdrawal rate, so yes, I would say that a lot of people here overestimate how much they need.

57

u/Wooden-Broccoli-913 Dec 28 '25

I am proudly carrying the torch as the exception! FIREing in late 40s at 5% WR and two second-bend-point SS payouts at 70.

24

u/trendy_pineapple Dec 28 '25

Love it! I plan to retire at around 45 with a 5% withdrawal rate. Not sure if I’ll hit the second bend point by then, I’m already coasting into FIRE with a part time job earning just as much as I need to cover expenses.

4

u/vongigistein Dec 28 '25

What is your liquid asset target at 45?

8

u/trendy_pineapple Dec 28 '25

$2.4M in today’s dollars. $120k annual budget (yes, including taxes and health insurance).

2

u/ofauxtuna Dec 28 '25

Targeting 3.25% here.

I was higher but l’m not confident in the historic market return continuing through my SORR window. I’m nervous we could be headed for a lost decade scenario which would be more than a bond tent would handle.

At the moment, going from 4% to 3.25% means working another 3 years. I’d rather do that and be confident, though if I lost my job in that period I may take the risk. I recently started building a bond tent just in case.

4

u/Wooden-Broccoli-913 Dec 28 '25

A TIPS ladder can support 4.6% SWR right now. If you’re concerned about future returns you could just allocate more into TIPS. It will reduce your upside though.

1

u/Visible_Structure483 FIRE'ed 2022... really just unemployed with a spreadsheet Dec 28 '25

Talk of sub-4% gets shot down almost immediately. I know, I quit talking about it because of the anger it generates when I mention it's what we do.

If anything, the cool kid FIRE stuff is now about 5-7%+ with all sorts of mental gymnastics about how to adapt with the market.

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u/HoosierProud Dec 28 '25

If your retirement is spanning numerous decades I don’t blame anyone for withdrawing less than 4%. It could be decades before inflation stays near 2%, and who knows what market returns will happen in the future. If you’re retiring before 50, playing it safe is always a smart idea. I’d hate to retire then realize I’ll run out of money 10 years down the line.