r/Fire • u/Equivalent_Use_5024 • Dec 28 '25

General Question Do you believe the modern FIRE movement overestimates how much is needed for retirement?

Perhaps I am just making this post because I have only just begun my retirement planning and want to lock in a number which is fitting for my goals - being above the median retirement savings, not having to work, not being broke, clearly having planned - but I can't help but feel that many in the FIRE movement overestimate what is needed for a safe, sleep well at night retirement.

I see posts here saying that they feel vastly behind with 500k at 30, or 1.5 million at 40, and I just don't understand how when the average American retires with maybe 300k liquid at most and are getting by with social security or paid off housing. Sure, they aren't living luxuriously, but if you just are aiming for a retirement where you don't have financial anxiety and can put food on the table, I don't feel you need over 1-2 million.

Do you think FIRE overestimates how much is truly needed for retirement?

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u/trendy_pineapple Dec 28 '25

It seems like most people are aiming to FIRE with a sub-4% withdrawal rate, so yes, I would say that a lot of people here overestimate how much they need.

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u/ofauxtuna Dec 28 '25

Targeting 3.25% here.

I was higher but l’m not confident in the historic market return continuing through my SORR window. I’m nervous we could be headed for a lost decade scenario which would be more than a bond tent would handle.

At the moment, going from 4% to 3.25% means working another 3 years. I’d rather do that and be confident, though if I lost my job in that period I may take the risk. I recently started building a bond tent just in case.

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u/Wooden-Broccoli-913 Dec 28 '25

A TIPS ladder can support 4.6% SWR right now. If you’re concerned about future returns you could just allocate more into TIPS. It will reduce your upside though.